The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where we write about Turf horse racing and build exacta handicaps. Kentucky Downs is over seemingly just as it starts. A fantastic meet that I wish was a bit longer, but perhaps that would take some of the alure away also. Our eyes will move towards Keenland and Santa Anita Turf in the next few weeks as Kentucky Downs wrap up, and we have this weekend, the first weekend in October, and then Breeders' Cup as the next three big weekends, and really, the end of Turf racing until SA Winter and Gulfstream Winter kick off. The cycle of racing is part of what I enjoy, understanding that cycle has been disturbed greatly by the loss of Arlington, Hollywood, and the temporary loss of Belmont. We can only handicap what they race.
Thursday racing does get me excited, especially with these big purses. Today's handicap is the OneDreamer $500k, for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up that haven't won a stakes in 2025.
One thing I wish we had was better track website for Kentucky Downs. I really hate having to use Equibase but that's what we have. There has been minimal rain and weather looks good. I expect Firm Turf. You can find scratches and changes and turf condition here. Note the temp rail was at 25 feet a few days ago. Pay attention to this as the turf track gets worn quite hard here as all races are on it.
Here’s why the turf rail setting matters—and how to use it when you handicap.
What “rail at X ft” means
Tracks move a temporary inside rail out from the “true” (0 ft) position to protect worn turf. You’ll see settings like 0 ft (true), 9 ft, 18 ft, 30 ft, etc.
Moving the rail out narrows the course and changes trip dynamics. Starters are repositioned so the official distance is still correct, but the race shape and trips are not the same as at 0 ft.
Geometry and trip dynamics (the big effects)
Narrower lanes mean a premium on saving ground. With the rail far out, there’s less room to loop the field; wide moves cost more and hit traffic sooner.
Inside posts and forward trips tend to do better as the rail goes out. Speed and pace-pressers can control and save ground; deep closers are more likely to get stacked or forced wide.
Outside posts in routes are riskier with the rail out: shorter run to the first turn plus less width increases the chance of getting hung out.
Surface freshness flips. Rails out often use more outside lanes (sometimes fresher); when the rail comes back in (true), the inner lane that was protected can be firmer and faster. Track-by-track quirks apply—log them.
Timing, starts, and figures
Run-up and turn geometry change with different rail settings, so raw times aren’t apples-to-apples. Lean on figures (Beyer, TimeformUS) and sectional context rather than final time comparisons across rail positions.
A handy ground-loss rule of thumb
Each “path” is about 3 ft. Around two turns, being 1 path wide adds roughly 19 ft (about 2 lengths); 2 paths is roughly 4 lengths. On rails-out days—when more horses are forced wide—this penalty shows up more often.
Practical betting takeaways
Upgrade horses who were forced wide or trapped on a big rails-out day; they often improve next time, especially if the rail comes back in.
Downgrade effortless inside/speed wins with the rail far out; they may not get the same trip when width and flow change.
Track-specific notes pay. Saratoga, Kentucky Downs, Gulfstream, Del Mar, and others have distinct patterns by rail setting and distance. Keep a simple log: Track / Distance / Rail / Style that did best / Any post bias.
That's a lot of effort and I can't say I do that for every race. I do think about which horses I like the most and try to figure out how they will be affected by the increased distance or the cornering. This is advanced class and quite frankly you can ignore rail position and get away with it much of the time.
Those 70 yards don't matter that much; it's 1/3 of a furlong. Most of the horses here should have no issue with the distance, but you really should think of it more as a sprint than a route. While I generally would discount the early speed to not carry, in this case, it's not unreasonable that a talented and classy horse like No Mo Candy can use her early speed, take control of the race, and ride it wire to wire. Paying attention to see if Irad Ortiz goes, I'm not that close to what he's doing after the fall this weekend.
Pace Visualization:
Tomlinson Analysis:
Exacta History:
I'm not going to overthink the bet too much. While I haven't agreed too much with the Morning lines at KD this past week, I see the race pretty similar to the track handicapper (for better or worse!) To me, if I don't cash it will be because I get the bet construction wrong, not the handicap.
I don't see a lot of value ion this race, so full disclosure I may not bet it. When I feel that way I resist the urge to over bet, so I won't.
My first thought is $2 Exacta 7 OVER 5-4-1-8 for $8. I might look at tote board as we approach post time but I don't see any of my top three going long on the odds enough for me to stretch. I do like Vive Veuve possibly more than No Mo Candy, so I may bet 5 OVER 7-4-1-8 instead, a game time decision.
UPDATE: No Mo Candy and Butternut Babe scratched. Not in love with the bet possibilities in this race but if compelled, 5 OVER 4-1-8 a $2 Exacta for $6.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, and day 2 of the Kentucky Downs meet. For Day 1 I handicapped The Tapit $500,000. Some observations pop out:
Lagynos, wow! Track record. The screenshot captures the moment he breaks free and runs off with it.
What did I do well.
I nailed handicapping the winner. The key to exotic betting is being able to pick winners.
Am I smart or is the track handicapper dumb? Lagynos is 8-1 Morning Line. I don't look at Morning Lines as it adds bias. Even adjusted to remove the takeout, he adjusted to 10.5-1. I handicap a fair odds value of 5-1 and put him as the chalk in my base handicap. But what happens? He gets bet down to 3-2.
The seven scratches didn't help. What's the point of the "Also Entered" if they are just going to scratch?
It's a hard game to beat.
The Tapit $500KKD 28 August 2025; 1 Mile 70 Yards Firm Turf.
Ky Downs — Tapit S. (1 Mile 70Y, Turf) • Aug 28, 2025
Horse
PP
St
1/4
1/2
3/4
Str
Fin
Jockey
Odds
Lagynos
9
7
41/2
31 1/2
33 1/2
1
1
Ortiz J L
1.50
Ohana Honor
6
1
7
9
71/2
2hd
2no
Hernandez B J Jr
9.19
Cameo Performance
5
5
81 1/2
8
6
3hd
3
Gaffalione T
4.70
Nelson Avenue
8
4
3
21 1/2
2
41/2
4no
Dettori L
5.54
Nineeleventurbo
3
3
51/2
6
5
6
5
Geroux F
6.92
Tapit Shoes
2
9
9
71
8
8
6
Gutierrez Mario
38.68
Multitask
4
6
61 1/2
51 1/2
4
71 1/2
7
Cheminaud V
15.85
Paros
1
8
11/2
11
11
51 1/2
8
Rosario J
5.86
Track Phantom
7
2
2
4
9
9
9
Asmussen E
43.74
Superscripts show lengths-behind fractions (e.g., 1/2, 1, 1½, 3½) and special margins hd (head) and no (nose).
Source: KD Tapit S. chart, Aug 28, 2025.
For day two of this meet I'm focused on a 3 YO Race with a $3.5 MM purse, the Grade 3 Nashville Derby, run at 1 mile and 5/16.
US Timeform Early and Late Pace
12 Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) – TimeformUS Early/Late not listed in DRF page
What to make of all of this?
I'm going to keep it simple: $2 Exacta 11/12/8 OVER 11/12/8/2/5/1 for $30 Dollars.
Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap Turf Races and build exacta bets. That's it, that's all I do. I don't break news articles, I don't get interviews with the connections, no human interest stories, just handicapping (primarily) older horses running (primarily) over a route of grass. Why? It's what I like and after tracking ROI for 10+ years, it's what I'm good at. I handicap in a complete vacuum to outside bias. I don't look at morning lines (until after I've handicapped), I don't read about the races in advance. I study the DRF Formulator Past Performances and Race Charts and I watch recent/relevant video to help make the data more visual. I like older horses because they are more of a known quantity, with plenty of data to analyze. I like big fields and I like to bet against favorites who still lose roughly 60% of the races they run.
Kentucky Downs is my favorite turf track in the United States. It use to be Arlington, but we know how that ended. While its a short meet, I look forward each year to the chaos of large purses/big fields and just the excitement that this track brings.
From the 2024 Meet:
There were 76 races in total.
Favorites won 25 races, which is about 32.9 percent.
Favorites finished second 13 times and third 7 times, for 20 additional in-the-money finishes.
In total, 45 out of 76 favorites finished on the board, which is 59 percent.
There were 6 odds-on favorites during the meet.
Of those, 3 won, giving odds-on favorites a 50 percent win rate.
For clarification, a favorite is the horse with the lowest odds in a race. It is considered the most likely winner by the betting public. A favorite does not have to be very short-priced. It could be 2-1, 5-2, 3-1, or any other price, as long as no other horse has lower odds.
An odds-on favorite is a special type of favorite whose odds are less than even money, below 1-1. This means you must risk more than you stand to gain. Common odds-on lines are 4-5, 3-5, or 1-5. At 4-5, for example, you would need to bet $5 to win $4, plus your $5 stake back.
In short: all odds-on favorites are favorites, but not all favorites are odds-on. A horse can be the favorite at 2-1 or 3-1 without being odds-on.
Enough of Professor Turk, lets get to degenerate gambler Turk!
While not relevant for handicapping today's race, I find it's always important to watch a race on this course to remind myself of the uniqueness of the track.
29 August 2024; KD Tapit $500K; 1 Mile 70 Yards on Firm Turf
Weather should be dry and turf firm. Track website is substandard for horseplayers, but I think you'll be able to find scratches and changes here.
Tapit 500K; 1 Mile 70 Yards on Turf
I have some charts that I use to help me visualize the Tomlinson numbers for Turf and Dirt as well as Early and Late Pace. I hope you find them useful.
What to do with all of this? You'll see in my Fair Odds Chart it's pretty clear I don't have a clue about this race or these horses. I clearly don't view some of these horses the same way the Morning Line does, which is OK, you have to learn to trust your own skill, even if that means you have to admit you saw it wrong sometimes.
I don't think I'm going to bet tomorrow. I'm going to watch the races and compare my views of my base handicap to the results and see if I can't calibrate myself before the weekend. If I want to bet, I can see a really simple Exacta: $2 Bet 14/5 OVER 14/5 13, 9,3,6,7 for $24.
Trust thyself, handicappers.
And the following is a good overview of the track itself.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. We're back for the second of five days of this meet and the focus race is the $250,000 Old Friends, Race 9, for three year old's and up which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018.
You will find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here. The weather looks like it may be a bit wet a few hours before post time before stopping. I'm assuming firm turf for now.
Because this is the work week, and I'm a working class stiff, I won't be conducting the usual video and trip analysis here in the blog. If you are new to The Turk, please check out my achieve, as I put alot of time and attention into trip handicapping and the results have been well worth it.
Let's get it on!
The Turk is a form handicapper who utilizes video analysis and analytics to form base handicaps which I use to primarily pick exacta bets. In calendar year 2018 I return $1.65 for each $1 invested. With older turf runners I believe in late turn of foot, tactical speed depending on track configuration, race distance and post position, class, and trip analysis over past several races. These Kentucky Downs races are serious challenges and the conditions on this race, "...which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018..." opens up the field widely.
None of these runners scream "chalk". The morning line favorite is 4-1 Undrafted. Wesley Ward's runners Undrafted and Master Merion are making their first starts since late June at Ascot. Undrafted has $1.4 MM in career earnings with 12 Win-Places but is winless in 4 Kentucky Downs starts.
Instead of rambling like I normally do, I'm going to let the base handicap stand and I will post an update with my selections prior to the race.
UPDATE 11:12 ET 9/5 Undrafted/8 and Conquest Panthera/9, along with All Right/8 are early scratches. Undrafted (20%) and Conquest Panthera (16.67%) represented 37% winning odds by the morning line. This thing is wide open. I'll be back with my picks before post time.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 9th Year and 11th month of providing horse handicapping and bet construction to people who neither asked for it nor read it much anymore!
The Turk absolutely loves the quirky turf only track in Franklin, Kentucky, Kentucky Downs. Quite frankly the only thing I don't like about this boutique meet is how short it is, as I'm always left wanting for more. I'll be playing at least Race 7 (One Dreamer 250K, For F&M 3 YO and Up that haven't won a sweepstakes in 2018 and Race 8, The Tourist Mile 750K for 3 YO and Up, which I'm blogging the details of today.
Are you familiar with Kentucky Downs? The video below gives you a feel for the Euro flavor sweeping first turn and the tighter second turn. As well, last year's Tourist Mile is below for familiarization. The only horse running back in the Tourist Mile is 5 YO Bandar. Master Merion, a 4 Yo Quality Road gelding trained by Wesley Ward has a win in his only start here while Mr. Cub is 1 win in 2 starts here, a 125K ALW last year at 1 mile on good turf where he pressed the pace all the way before shaking clear as a 4-1 carrying 118# (125# today).
2017 Kentucky Downs Tourist Mile; For 3 YOs and Up; Turf listed as Good
I went through quite a bit of analysis that was originally developed by Dick Downey of the Downey Profile. You'll find Dick's Twitter feed here.
You find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here. The weather looks right now to be wet and I would suspect the track will not be firm. Let's get after it!
Mr. Misunderstood is having a wonderful turf career: 11 of 13 in the money over grass with 10 wins, setting his best 101 speed rating in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile at Kee. This is a class drop for him, even from his second to last time out win in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at CD in June and his win in the Ellis Park Preview Mile for Kentucky Downs 26 days ago.
In general you'll note the Turk's Fair Line doesn't show much separation; 72.63% chance my top four wins. This excites me thinking about the Will Pays on Exacta betting for multiple value combinations.
Mr. Cub is 8 of 14 lifetime in the money over turf, 3 of 3 lifetime at the distance and has a one mile win pressing the pace over good grass a year ago. The 4 YO Artie Schiller gelding runs back on a 3 week layoff after a dull effort in Lure 100K, 1 1/16 Miles over good turf at SAR.
The running line calls his lost momentum a bobble. It looked to me like a bobble or he just lost footing on his hard inside line, but whatever the horse was in front on a soft pace and at the top of the stretch dropped back to last quickly.
Bound for Nowhere, talk about a class drop, from a 6F good turf race at Ascot to Franklin! He ran a big race in field of 12.
118 Early US Timeform pace. Distance increase, stretching out from his comfort zone of 5-6 F which makes some sense as the 4 Yo son of The Factor. Julio Garcia is back up for Wesley Ward, and the combo are 41% winners on 86 starts over past year all tracks. Here they win the Shakertown Stakes G2 at KEE, 5 1/2 Furlongs over soft footing. Watch him explode in the straight.
Ken and Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten has a very good late turn of foot with a 113 late Timeform pace fig. 1 win in last 9 starts, a fake dirt Turfway Park win in the Kentucky Cup Classic 100K. 4 wide in the last turn and his closing speed on full display. I don't like the lack of winning, and he hasn't even been in the money but the one time in last 9 races
Krampus cuts back in distance while increasing in class. He won last time out at 1 1/8th pressing the pace with an 89 Beyer over firm turf in a 62K OC N2X. The 4 Yo gelded son of Shakespeare has 4 wins and is in the money 6 out of 8 starts over grass.
Master Merion, a gelded 4 Yo Quality Road ( a Turk favorite runner and a damn fine sire) is 10 of 11 in the money over grass and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance with a win at Kentucky Downs in one start. He's also first time back from Ascot for Wesley Ward but didn't do as well as Bound for Nowhere. Last turf win was a Breeders' Cup Weekend undercard race, Let It Ride Stakes 79K at Del Mar at 1 Mile over firm turf. I may have him too low and is a live threat at least for Place and Show.
Finally Great Wide Open (Ire) has one win in last 11, 4 wins in 24 turf starts and the 6 YO comes in on a 61-180 day break (June 23). Big early Timeform Pace of 124. Last few running lines: "....drifted...faltered late...no response...weakened late....game and faded.." The "game" was his last win, 1 mile 80K OC on turf at FG. Eh.
I tossed Bandar from contention at my own peril
I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with this one. I'm thinking about $8-10 of Exactas and $4 of Win Bets defensively bet. I want to get a better feel for the surface and the Will Pays before committing.
The stars aligned for me yesterday: I had time, quiet and a real desire to engage with Kentucky Downs, which has quickly become one of my favorite tracks. I'm a turf racing/handicap division handicapper to begin with, and this is like a short stay in heaven.
I spent quite a bit of time inside the past performances of the late all Stakes-
Pick 4, perhaps because I was looking for hidden gems. Quite frankly, all I saw in everyone of these races was a dividing line in Class, Speed and Form, and I think you'll see visually my handicaps were pretty much dead on with only St. Louie sneaking up on me (as much as a Michael Maker/ Arch son can be ignored) and the lack of response from Enterprising, both in the Turf Cup.
My ROI on the day was +16% which is well below my opportunity cost of 40%. You can win and lose, and I know that I may have ended the day a bit up, it's not enough earnings to offset the inevitable losses.
What did I do wrong:
Not singling Miss Temple City. My personal money line was 1.8-1 and the two additional covers I made cost me $40 dollars in earnings and was the difference between a 400% ROI and 16%.
Undervalued Happy Mesa in Race 8. I had her at 40-1. The Michael Maker was coming in off a very sharp 4F in :47 2/5ths over CD Turf and was making a deep cutback.
before mentioned St. Louie.
What I did right:
I had Race 7 dialed in: Cold Exacta paid $11.80 for $2 bet. It wasn't complicated and you do get credit for not overthinking.
A four horse Tri Box in Race 9 would have paid $109.80 for $48, $2 bet.
A five horse Tri Box in Race 10 would have paid $231.20 for a $120, $2 bet.
Watching Kentucky Downs on Twin Spires TV is like stepping back in time with the quality of the video, the graphics, the lack of camera angles, but I can't say I minded it. There was something liberating about not having some smarthty talking head rambling non stop.
Happy Sunday Friends. I'm off to watch my Buffalo Bills (I know, laugh now). Also, please pray for everyone affected by Hurricane Irma, especially the horses and backstretch workers at the various tracks and farms.
The Turk loves turf racing, but I was very late to the game with Kentucky Downs. Coming on the heels of summer meets at Saratoga and Del Mar, my attention normally turns to Presque Isle, Belmont and Santa Anita as I start to think about my biggest gambling weekend of every year, Breeders' Cup. It wasn't until two years ago that I embraced this quirky track and it's quirky meet that is both race fan friendly, bettor friendly and incredibly forward thinking in comparison to most of what I see from horse racing "thinkers".
I've spent the better part of 3 hours handicapping the last four races of the card today, a pick four sequence that kicks off at 5:18 ET. The scratches and changes can be found here and my picks represent the best knowledge of scratches at around 11:00 ET. It should be dry today.
I'm going to watch the races before finalizing my P4 selections. I've provided my possible covers in my chart and I'll be using my base handicaps to fashion my vertical bets.
Have fun with this card friends. Will focus a bit more on each race in the Post Race review.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. The weather has denied all lovers of turf racing the first day of the Kentucky Downs meet.
The entire first day of the card was moved in its entirety from Saturday 2 September to Wednesday 6 September. The move will set up a furious five days of racing, with September 6 and 7th, followed by Saturday/Sunday September 9 and 10, and ending with Thursday September 14.
The weather delay should just be used to familiarize yourself with this unique and interesting course.
From the Kentucky Downs website you'll find buried some very good statistics and observations on how the course has played over past several years. My takeaway of the following is the track plays pretty fair when truly firm, producing winners with equal distributions from inside and outside posts, but produces abnormalities favoring inside and outside posts and speed versus closers depending on track condition and level of dryness near rail. The data was complied by Dick Downey of the Downey Profile.
POST POSITION / EARLY SPEED
The following focuses on on how post positions and early speed impact the outcomes of races at Kentucky Downs.
All statistics are from one-turn races with distances ranging from six furlongs to one mile 70 yards. Races going two turns (1 5/16 mile and 1 1/2 mile) are not included due to the small sample size.
For the most part, there is a recurring theme showing winners on firm ground having good early speed and coming, in many instances, from post positions in the inner half of the gate. The corollary is that on softer ground, early speed is not as effective, and outside posts produce a higher percentage of winners.
2016 Summary
In races going a mile and 70 yards or less, horses that started from the six inside posts won at double the rate of those who started from the six outside posts. There were29 winners from 246 starters in posts 1 through 6 (11.8%), and there were 12 winners from 202 starters in posts 7 through 12(5.9%).
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
41
41
41
41
41
41
40
39
39
34
31
19
Winners
7
2
6
5
4
5
5
0
4
2
0
1
Win %
17%
5%
15%
12%
10%
12%
13%
NA
10%
6%
NA
5%
Day 1 of 2016 -- Sept. 3 (Saturday)
The track was rated firm. The area took lots of rainfall in July and the first half of August but dried out afterward. By opening day the track had just a little bit of give to it and played fair.
From the inside half of the gate there were five winners from 54 starters (9.3%), and from the outside half of the gate there were four winners from 46 starters (10.9%), so the distribution could hardly have been more even.
From nine races, two were won by horses on the lead at each call, and five were won by horses either on the lead or stalking within 3 1/2 lengths of the lead after a half-mile. The other four winners closed from 5 1/4 to 6 1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile.
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
5
Winners
1
0
2
1
0
1
2
0
1
0
0
1
Win %
11%
NA
22%
44%
NA
11%
22%
NA
13%
NA
NA
20%
Day 2 of 2016 -- Sept. 8 (Thursday)
The track was rated firm, and it was firmer than it was on Day 1.
From the inside half of the gate there were four winners from 48 starters (8.3%), and from the outside half of the gate there were four winners from 41 starters (9.6%), so the distribution was pretty much even like it was on day 1.
From eight races going less than 1 5/16 mile, two were won by horses on the lead at each call,two were won by horses only a head back after a half-mile, two were won by horses within two lengths of the lead after a half-mile, and two were won by horses that were 5 1/4 and 11 1/2 lengths off the lead after a half-mile.
One of those races kind of fell apart at the end. In two races going 1 5/16 mile, one winner led all the way and one was only a couple of lengths back after six furlongs.
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
6
5
Winners
2
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
2
1
0
0
Win %
25%
NA
13%
13%
NA
NA
13%
NA
25%
17%
NA
NA
Day 3 of 2016 -- Sept. 10 (Saturday)
The track was rated firm, and it was firmer than it was on Days 1 or 2 -- until it rained after race 6. Afterward, the track was rated yielding.
From eight races going less than 1 5/16 mile, from the inside half of the gate there were six winners from 48 starters (12.6%), and from the outside half of the gate there were two winners from 32 starters (6.3%), so the distribution clearly favored the inside half of the gate.
This is mainly due to the fact that in the five races going less than 1 5/16 mile that were run before it rained, there were four winners from 30 starters (13.3%) from the inner half and 1 winner from 26 starters (3.8%) from the outer half.
Speed held up all day in the eight races going less than 1 5/16 mile. Two were won by horses on the lead at each call, and five were won by horses that were either on the lead or in second place after a half-mile. Only one of that group was more than 1 1/2 length off the pace at that point.
Oddly enough, the two marathon races, races typically won by horses that are near the front pace, were both won by horses that were in seventh place after a mile -- one of them was 6 1/2 lengths off the pace (race run after the rain) and one was 11 1/4 lengths off the pace (race run before the rain).
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
5
5
1
Winners
0
1
3
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
Win %
NA
13%
38%
NA
13%
13%
14%
NA
NA
20%
NA
NA
Turf Cup
Day 4 of 2016 -- Sept. 11 (Sunday)
The track was rated good at the outset following rainfall the previous afternoon. There had been no rain prior to that day since mid-August, and it soon became clear that, for the most part, the track had absorbed the water and was firm.
From eight races going less than 1 5/16 mile, from the inside half of the gate there were seven winners from 48 starters (14.6%), and from the outside half of the gate there was one winnerfrom 43 starters (2.3%), so the distribution heavily favored the inside half of the gate.
Speed held up almost all day in the eight races going less than 1 5/16 mile.Two were won by horses on the lead at each call, and five more were won by horses that were within 2 1/4 lengths of the lead after a half-mile.One winner was four lengths back after a half, and one was 8 1/2 lengths back.
In two races going 1 5/16 mile, one winner was second by two lengths after six furlongs and the other was sixth, 3 1/2 lengths back after six furlongs.
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
5
Winners
2
0
0
3
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
Win %
25%
NA
NA
38%
13%
13%
NA
NA
13%
NA
NA
NA
Day 5 of 2016 -- Sept. 15 (Thursday)
The track rated as firm. From eight races going less than 1 5/16 mile, from the inside half of the gate there were seven winners from 48 starters (14.6%), and from the outside half of the gate there was one winner from 40 starters (2.5%), so the distribution again heavily favored the inside half of the gate.
Speed held up in five of the eight races going less than 1 5/16 mile, and threeof those races were won by deep closers,so the day was a bit unusual in that respect.
Horses either on the lead at each call or within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead after a half-mile won five times. Three other winners were 7 1/2 or more lengths back after a half-mile. In two races going 1 5/16 and 1 1/2 mile, one winner was second by one length after a mile, and the other was sixth, 4 1/2 lengths back after a mile.
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
3
Winners
2
1
0
0
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
Win %
25%
13%
NA
NA
25%
25%
13%
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Day 1 of 2015 -- Sept. 5 (Saturday)
The track was rated firm, but it's been firmer, and that's because it had been watered. The grass was green and lush. It was a hot, sunny day with a good breeze most of the time, and the track tightened up as the day progressed. Twice as many winners broke from from posts 1-6 as from posts 7-12, and the inner posts won at a higher percentage of starters as well.
Early speed was dominant. From nine races going less than 1 5/16 mile, six were won by horses that were no worse than third, 2 1/2 lengths off the lead, after the first half-mile. However, only one of those six winners led at each call.
Posts 1 - 6: There were six winners from 54 starters = 9.25%
Posts 7-12: There were three winners from 39 starters = 7.7%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
7
7
5
3
Winners
1
0
0
4
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
Win %
11%
NA
NA
44%
11%
NA
NA
25%
NA
NA
NA
33%
Day 2 of 2015 -- Sept. 10 (Thursday)
The track was rated yielding. Races 3-10 were cancelled. Both winners came from inside postsbut were well off the pace in the early going. One was sixth, 5 1/2 lengths back, and one was 11th, 8 1/4 lengths back after the first half-mile.
Posts 1 - 6: There were two winners from 12 starters = 16%
Posts 7-12: There were no winners from nine starters = 0%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
Winners
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Win %
50%
50%
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Day 3 of 2015 -- Sept. 14 (Monday)
The track was rated good. It had dried out some from Sept. 10 but still had noticeable moisture in it. Consistent with previous findings under this circumstance, most winners came from outside posts and from well off the early pace.
From 10 races, six winners were from 4 3/4 to 8 1/4 lengths off the pace after the first half-mile, and they were positioned anywhere from seventh to 10th. Only one winner led at each call.
Posts 1 - 6: There were four winners from 60 starters = 8%
Posts 7-12: There were six winners from 49 starters = 12%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
6
4
Winners
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
2
1
2
0
Win %
10%
10%
10%
NA
10%
NA
10%
NA
20%
11%
33%
NA
Day 4 of 2015 -- Sept. 16 (Wednesday)
The track was rated firm. Although it still had a bit of moisture in it, It had dried out and continued to do so as the day progressed. Winners coming from inside posts were equal to those from outside posts, but early speed played well. From 10 races, while only one winner led after a half-mile,seven more winners were within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead after a half-mile, and six of those seven were positioned anywhere from second to fourth.
Posts 1 - 6: There were five winners from 60 starters = 8.3%
Posts 7-12: There were five winners from 47 starters = 10.6%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
5
3
Winners
1
0
2
1
1
0
1
3
0
1
0
0
Win %
10%
NA
20%
10%
10%
NA
10%
30%
NA
11%
NA
NA
Day 5 of 2015 -- Sept. 19 (Saturday)
The track was rated firm, and times were relatively fast. A track record was set in one race, and we got pretty close in a couple of others. However, the day was an anomaly in our study because, despite these conditions, winners came from outside posts at almost double the rate of inside posts.
In terms of early speed, from 10 races no winners led after a half-mile, but eight winners were within three lengths of the lead after a half-mile.
Posts 1 - 6: There were four winners from 60 starters = 6.7%
Posts 7-12: There were six winners from 45 starters = 13.3%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
5
3
Winners
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
1
0
4
1
0
Win %
NA
NA
NA
NA
30%
10%
NA
11%
NA
44%
20%
NA
Day 1 of 2014 -- Sept. 6 (Saturday)
The first day of the 2014 meet was pretty much the polar opposite of its 2013 counterpart. While the track was rated firm both days, it was very dry on the first day of the 2013 meet but had considerable moisture in it on opening day 2014.Early speed won a hefty part of the time on opening day 2013.On opening day 2014, in races going a mile and 70 yards or less, not one horse that led after a half-mile won. Five of the eight winners at those distances were anywhere from 3 1/2 lengths to 7 1/4 lengths off the pace after the first half-mile.
In addition, outside posts produced winners at a much higher rate than inside posts on this year's opening day -- the opposite of 2013. The portion of the track next to the rail was softer than it was in the middle.
Posts 1 - 6: There was one winner from 48 starters = 2.1%
Posts 7-12: There were seven winners from 34 starters = 34%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
6
3
3
Winners
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
2
1
0
1
0
Win %
NA
13%
NA
NA
NA
NA
38%
29%
14%
NA
33%
NA
Day 2 of 2014 -- Sept. 10 (Wednesday)
Day 2 of the 2014 meet was unlike Day 1 in three respects. (1) While the track was rated firm both days, it was much drier the second day. (2) Starters from posts 1-6 produced winners at a rate a little more than double that of starters from posts 7-12. Unlike Day 1, the portion of the track next to the rail was not soft; instead, it was producing a dusty kickback.(3) There was an equal division of winners in two groups: horses on or close to the lead after a half-mile won four races, and horses 4 1/2 lengths or more off the pace after a half-mile won four races.
Posts 1 - 6: There were six winners from 48 starters = 13%
Posts 7-12: There were two winners from 33 starters = 6%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
3
3
Winners
0
0
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
Win %
NA
NA
25%
25%
13%
13%
NA
NA
NA
17%
NA
33%
Days 3, 4 and 5 and of 2014 -- Sept. 13, 17, 24 (Saturday, Wednesday, Wednesday)
Days 3, 4 and 5 of the 2014 meet came on a firm surface, and no rain had fallen at the track since before Day 2. Thirteen of 25 winners came from posts 1-6, and 12 of 25 winners came from posts 7-12. This was a more even distribution than either of the first two days.
On Day 3, early speed was dominant, with seven of nine winners either on the lead or running in second position after a half-mile. Four of those seven were on the lead after a half-mile. Only two winners were 5 1/2 lengths or more off the lead after a half-mile, and one of those two was in second position at the time.
On Day 4, from nine winners, one led after a half-mile, and one was second at that point, but four more winners were 1 1/2 lengths or less off the lead after a half-mile, and another one was only 3 1/2 lengths off the lead at that point. That's a total of seven of nine winners flashing early speed.
On Day 5, from seven winners, two led after a half-mile and three more were 2 1/2 lengths or less off the lead after a half-mile. The other two winners after the first half-mile were fourth, four lengths off the lead and seventh, 4 3/4 lengths off the lead.
Posts 1 - 6: There were 13 winners from 150 starters = 8.66%
Posts 7-12: There were 12 winners from 102 starters = 11.76%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
23
16
10
3
Winners
2
2
2
2
1
4
1
6
1
3
1
0
Win %
8%
8%
8%
8%
4%
16%
4%
24%
4%
19%
9%
NA
Days 1, 2, 4 and 5 of 2013 -- Sept. 7, 11, 18 and 25 (Saturdays and Wednesdays)
Early speed won a hefty part of the time during days 1, 2 and 4 of the 2013 meet, and early speed was seen in just over half the winners on day 5. During these four days, inside posts won at a much higher rate than outside posts. The track was, for lack of a better way of expressing it, on the drier side of firm on days 1, 2 and 4.
On day 5, the track was not as dry, but it was firmer than it was on day 3 (see below). Five days before day 5, .86 inch rain fell in the area, and four days before day 5, .62 inch fell. Day 2 of the meet, a Wednesday, was curtailed after a lightning storm knocked out the track's tote system.
Posts 1 - 6: There were 24 winners from 204 starters = 11.8%
Posts 7-12: There were 10 winners from 140 starters = 7.1%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
30
30
26
13
7
Winners
7
2
2
2
5
6
3
3
1
1
2
0
Win %
21%
6%
6%
6%
15%
17%
9%
10%
3%
4%
15%
NA
Day 3 of 2013 -- Sept. 14 (Saturday)
While the track was rated firm on this Saturday, it had taken good rains after the races on the preceding Wednesday and on Thursday.The results from Day 3 are similar to those of the 2012 meet, when wet conditions were dominant. Paths closer to the rail were softer, and so outside posts won more often and at a much higher rate than they did during the drier days 1, 2, 4 and 5.
Posts 1 - 6: There were 4 winners from 53 starters = 7.5%
Posts 7-12: There were 5 winners from 31 starters = 16%
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Starters
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
6
5
3
1
Winners
0
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
2
2
0
0
Win %
NA
22%
NA
22%
11%
NA
NA
13%
33%
40%
NA
NA
2012
Thetrack took heavy rain at the outset of the meet, and more rain fell before its fifth and final day. One day of the would-be six-day meet was cancelled due to rain. Paths closer to the rail were softer, and so outside posts won more often and at a much higher rate.
Posts 1 - 6: There were 15 winners from 215 starters = 7%
Posts 7 - 12: There were 21 winners from 130 starters = 16%
2010-2011
Day 1 of 2010 saw good ground the first race and yielding ground thereafter, but only four races were run at one turn, so the stats for that day are meaningless.
Days 2, 3 and 4 of 2010 were run on firm ground. From 24 races, six were won by runners on the lead after a half-mile, and another 12 were won by runners within 3 1/2 lengths of the lead after a half-mile.
In 2011, days 1, 2, 3 and 4 were all rated firm. From 29 races, seven were won by runners on the lead after a half-mile, and another 12 were won by runners within 3 1/2 lengths of the lead after a half-mile.
During the two combined years, the inside six post positions were stronger than the outside six post positions.
Posts 1 - 6: There were 37 winners from 316 starters = 11.7%
Posts 7-13: There were 16 winners from 165 starters = 9.7%
All statistics are from one-turn races with distances ranging from six furlongs to one mile 70 yards. Races going two turns (1 5/16 mile and 1 1/2 mile) are not included due to the small sample size.
