The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I handicap turf racing, primarily older horses, and assemble exacta bets. Nothing that exotic, no complex systems, just my hyper attention on just one race, away from the distractions that occur at the track between the time one race ends and another goes to post. That's an important point, as this level of analysis isn't possible at the track nor do I pretend that it is. I follow a very different process when I'm at the track for pleasure or if I am handicapping a whole card for serious gambling purposes. For pleasure, I handicap off the simplified DRF past performance, and assemble simple bets off the tote board, tossing the favorite or skipping the race. With a whole card, I'll start with video review and I'll build my contenders listing and use it to assemble bets.
For these one off races, I deep dive on both video but also race charts. I like data, something that 3 YOs often lack. Give me enough data and I'll build a very good handicap. That said, it does nothing for bet construction. Bet construction is to me about patterns and risk. Understanding the patterns that appear over and over again with these races, be it a pace pattern, a field size pattern, how much handle the day may generate and then, the fair odds for over and underlays, and finally the most important data point, what does the betting public think of the horses as demonstrated on tote board and the Will Pays.
When I see Gimme a Nother (SAf) being bet down that hard, I salivate. My handicapping skill tells me what I need to know about the field, and my bet construction skill tells me how to possibly exploit it.
What do I mean? Gimme a Nother (SAf) is a multiple grade 1 winner in South Africa. I have no idea how that translates, but I definitely discount that. Pre race I said "...Gimme a Nother (SAf), first time lasix, multiple G1 winner in South Africa, a place in G2Hillsboroughin Tampa, place in G3Modestyat Churchill, well back ofShe Feels Prettyover yielding turf at SAR in the G1New York. 45.5%, 6-5 Morning Line? That has to be in metric or something. A very good mare but will she win this G2 5 out of 10 times?"
Watch Gimme a Nother (SAf) coming up the 2+ furlong straight and that stride didn't deserve 1-1 betting action.
No bragging, this sport humbles the best. I'm a very experienced handicapper. That's my strength. I'm a so-so bet construction gambler. I'd rather it was the other way around, but I have to leverage my strength and then I need to resist the urge to over bet. I'd rather lose 6 out of 10 but make a larger net return on the 4 I hit. That should be all of our objectives.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. We're back for the second of five days of this meet and the focus race is the $250,000 Old Friends, Race 9, for three year old's and up which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018.
You will find entries, scratches and changes and track condition here. The weather looks like it may be a bit wet a few hours before post time before stopping. I'm assuming firm turf for now.
Because this is the work week, and I'm a working class stiff, I won't be conducting the usual video and trip analysis here in the blog. If you are new to The Turk, please check out my achieve, as I put alot of time and attention into trip handicapping and the results have been well worth it.
Let's get it on!
The Turk is a form handicapper who utilizes video analysis and analytics to form base handicaps which I use to primarily pick exacta bets. In calendar year 2018 I return $1.65 for each $1 invested. With older turf runners I believe in late turn of foot, tactical speed depending on track configuration, race distance and post position, class, and trip analysis over past several races. These Kentucky Downs races are serious challenges and the conditions on this race, "...which have not won a sweepstakes in 2018..." opens up the field widely.
None of these runners scream "chalk". The morning line favorite is 4-1 Undrafted. Wesley Ward's runners Undrafted and Master Merion are making their first starts since late June at Ascot. Undrafted has $1.4 MM in career earnings with 12 Win-Places but is winless in 4 Kentucky Downs starts.
Instead of rambling like I normally do, I'm going to let the base handicap stand and I will post an update with my selections prior to the race.
UPDATE 11:12 ET 9/5 Undrafted/8 and Conquest Panthera/9, along with All Right/8 are early scratches. Undrafted (20%) and Conquest Panthera (16.67%) represented 37% winning odds by the morning line. This thing is wide open. I'll be back with my picks before post time.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog. I'm not handicapping today, just relaxing. I put in my work this weekend and ultimately bet on only four races. As I said in just my last blog post, I'm a high volume handicapper and a low volume race track investor. I had some tough luck at Kentucky Downs this weekend, some good handicapping and some bad bet construction actually while at Saratoga I intentionally discounted Yoshida (Jpn) in the Woodward Stakes and have to live with that.
I told my readers the following, "...Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional. Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1, race 2 is about race 2, etc. When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days. I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional". It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what I can from them and move on."
I mean every word of that. I'm nearly 52 years old. I've been handicapping since 1986 (32 years this past August) and I've been a horse racing fan since 1978 (40 years this past May). I'm in the prime of my life and I'm pretty good at picking horses and I just hope, like older handicappers did for me, I can impart some of those painful (read expensive) lessons onto my readers. I was rewarded with a Del Mar Derby win of $251.20 net making my weekend stat line as follows:
$76 Wagered on Four Exactas
$291.70 Returned
$3.84 Returned for each $1 Wagered
G2 Del Mar Derby; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
Tourist Mile; 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs
One Dreamer: 1 Mile 70 Yards on Firm Turf at Kentucky Downs
The Woodward Stakes G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt
I woke up on Sunday Morning a bit dejected. I felt like I handicapped very well over the past few days but I wasn't rewarded. It's easy to spout off about how you should conduct your business as a handicapper and its another completely to act professionally on your own advice, but I did it. I gave myself a few minutes to understand where I went wrong.
In the Tourist Mile, I missed the #8 horse in the top spot. I had it wrote down properly in my book but in my hurry to place my bets before I had to go out (first mistake- I was betting about 2 hours before the race) I screwed up entering the bet. That screw-up cost my $55.10. Every time this happens I tell myself it will never happen again.
In The One Dreamer, I overbet because of mistake #1: I wasn't home to watch the Will Pay's and my bet was too pricy, betting $28 to "win" $21.50. I was off to a great start this weekend! On Leave, who I didn't think was a slam dunk, was a pretty heavy chalk in hindsight.
In the Woodward, rip up the tickets, I didn't do much right there. I did favor Leofric to have a big day and I gambled he'd be my "Kazan" in this race, the long odds filling the place spot in the Exacta. Centimeters away. Luck goes both ways.
I put yesterday behind me and I focused on the Del Mar card today with a primary target of the turf race Del Mar Derby.
In the Del Mar Derby, it all came together, good handicapping and good luck: One more hop and River Boyne (Ire) catches Kazan (Ire) and the exacta is paying $20.
Prerace I said some smart things:
River Boyne (Ire) was tepid and hadn't had a signature moment yet.
I liked the late closing speed of Kazan (Ire) for the exacta.
I'd like Ride a Comet at worse than 4-1 and he went to post 5-1.
That's the line between positive ROI over time and being a losing horse player. It's a razor thin margin and the best way to stay positive is to keep working at your handicapping and your bet construction and cash management. Focus on what you are good at. For me, I've narrowed my focus to exactas. I left a Trifecta and Superfecta on the table ($1,600 how I would have bet them) but that's not my focus anymore. I've hit big takes in the past and its thrilling, but I'm just not interested in the roller coaster of emotions that comes with chasing the big strikes. I'm Ok with low risk/good reward.
I'm working on growing my blog and developing a few more social interactions through it. I had a small but tight group of handicapper friends I knew and sometimes collaborated with but they have moved on. Taking the long view serves me well in life and as a handicapper. Just keep plugging away is today's message. As long as you are a skilled handicapper, the betting will follow.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. The Turk has never been much of a Del Mar player (Hollywood Park yes, Santa Anita yes, Del Mar not so much). I was really turned off by the fake dirt track and how it played and I just stopped playing. Lately, I haven't been playing because quite frankly I've liked the racing out East better. I lived in San Diego, I do much business in San Diego, so this isn't a West Coast- East Coast thing, it's just a handicapping thing: I don't have time to dedicate to Del Mar. All that said and I really wanted to play this closing weekend and quite frankly I'm glad I did because I see a lot of betting potential with the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, a 1 1/8 Mile Turf race starting in the chute. River Boyne (Ire) has had a terrific season so far but his chalk today is light and I'm on the hunt for a well paying exacta. During the week I'll lick my chops from yesterday's handicapping. I did some good things at Kentucky Downs, and I really felt like I had solid long prices handicapped well in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, but the results weren't there. I excluded Yosida (Jpn) from my exacta, a decision I won't second guess and Leofric was centimeters away from Place as a morning line 20-1. Handicappers just need to keep plugging away and not be emotional. Nothing I do today can make up for yesterday, today is about today, race 1 is about 1 race 2 is about race 2, etc. When you are a high volume handicapper/low volume bettor-investor as I am you have to demand a return that will cover these sort of misstep days. Much of the time talk like that is bravado. I'm a lifetime slightly positive ROI player, but its hard to make up the losses. It's hard to be "unemotional". It's taken a lot of mental training and focus to look back on the handicaps objectively, glean what i can from them and move on.
Let's get it on!
Starting with some video review:
Dmr La Jolla G3; 1 1/16 Firm Turf 5 August 2018
Arawak has a 104 Late Pace Timeform pace fig and he shows it here. I like that Bejarano is back up but I don't like he's picking up 4 pounds. Hideous lifetime stats of 0 wins in 7 starts Turf, winless in two starts at DMR and 2 wins in 14 career starts. Could he get Place? Absolutely, but he needs the right trip, right pace, he needs a lot to happen.
River Boyne (Ire) has done little wrong: 6 of 8 in the money over turf, 2 of 2 at this distance, same weight carry as last effort. Nice consistent tactical speed which Prat, up, will unleash with 1/8 to go. I don't like that he doesn't really have a signature win and today could be it, but I think he's a tepid chalk that could get caught if the pace is slow early and the faster one run horses take aim late.
SA Eddie Logan $78K; 1 Mile Firm Turf 29 Dec 2017
I don't usually bother with older video but you have to go back in time to opening day at Santa Anita in very late December 2017 to see how talented Pubilius Syrus is. Training very sharply between 3 and 6f for Conditioner Cerin who is 24% winner in 25 tries with a +180 day layoff. Cerin also winless in 18 graded stakes over past year. Every dog has a day.
Dmr OC80K N1X; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf Race 6 19 July 2018
Andesh (Ire) has little excuse here and should have done better. Blinkers go on for D'Amato who is a 26% winner on 2nd off 45-180 layoff. Majestic Eagle I'm discounting at my own peril. Flat speed, I'm just expecting him to be gobbled up in the stretch. I love his running lines: "...held...held...gamely...rallied...". I like gutty for Place and Show often over talent.
SAR Hall of Fame Stakes G2; 1 1/16 yielding turf
With Ride a Comet, Trainer Mark Casse ships West out of Saratoga. 4 of 4 in the money over turf with 3 wins, improving Beyers and late breaking. I'd like him better at 4-1 or worse.
Del Mar Oaks G1; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf
It's a very confident race Animosity is running against fillies before either a bad step or even a rail bump derailed her. I bet this seemed like a good idea to Trainer Gallagher before drawing post 12. I'm torn that he shouldn't have just scratched her and ran her in a better spot somewhere else. I do respect her though and we can assume she'll hustle out and try to get a better tactical position.
I like for Exacta purposes Kazan (Ire) with his late speed and possibly Desert Stone (Ire) but I'm not that high on the #2 horse. He's jumping in class, in distance. I did like his rally to finish fourth last time out.
So what to do with all this?
I'm going to construct an Exacta along these lines:
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. I'm back this weekend with another very good betting race, the $250,000 One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs. I've already posted wide open G1 Woodward Stakes and the race after this, the Tourist Mile $750,000. Light chalks in all with big fields and I'm on the hunt for big payout exactas in each.
I just love Kentucky Downs. I love the sort of horse it attracts too: hard knocking, veteran, geldings, fringe stakes runners, gutty and under performers alike. I could watch video on these races for prep all day, and what a better way for the Turk to unwind this Labor day weekend. I work hard, I travel constantly and quite frankly, I'm often tired and on the edge of mental exhaustion. What keeps me plugging along at a high level is taking time before bed and on the weekends to dedicate time to my passion of horse racing. You have to have an outlet. I tell my staff constantly, what we do is a marathon, not a sprint. It's mostly true, very often like any race, there are sprints within the marathon. The Turk was raised by Momma and Papa Turk to work hard, work the pants off of everyone and advance through your merits. I'm in the final furlongs of a career and its this horse racing blog that gives me my outlet and pleasure. I hope my crazy and wild readers enjoy it as well. It's now September 2018. I started doing this in September 2008. Time flies....
You'll find information here from what's available for the Equibase Kentucky Downs profile for Scratches/Changes etc. The weather? Looks drier than I expected. I'm waiting to see what the condition of the turf is but I can't imagine its worse than Good.
Let's go!
Ellis Park: 1 1/16 Miles: Last Race Effort on July 8th for Dubara (GB)/2, I Remember Mama/4Youngest Daughter/5, Burma Road/6 and Also Eligible Red Dane (Ity)
Arlington Park Race 6: Modesty G3; 1 3/16th on Firm Turf on July 7th with Celestial Insight/1 (#4), Con Te Partiro/7 (#11) and Prado's Sweet Ride/9 (#8)
Finish G3 Modesty: Twin Spires TV
I'm not sure what to takeaway from this: Prado's Sweet Ride at 11.9-1 has one big run, Con Te Partiro at 9.3-1 comes late but well beaten and Celestial Insight at 3.3-1 buckles when the pace quickened. One race back of this in the Grade 3 Mint Julep the 5 YO mare out of Scat Daddy (rest in peace) took the lead at the 1/16th pole only to lose by a neck, while the #8 horse in that race, Youngest Daughter cracks under pressure.
Mint Julep G3 1/16th to Go: Twin Spires TV
Youngest Daughter with no excuses, last few running lines; "...faltered late, weakened, Bobbled Start, weakened, faltered, belated". That's not good. She was a vet scratch August 5th. Her adjusted 1/4 time in Thorograph race shape is third fastest at :24.92 but if she can't finish better it won't help. Celestrial Insight gets pilot Rocco back up and I think has a chance to finish top 4.
English Affair is intriguing to me. The 4 YO English Channel filly is 6 of 8 in the money on turf, with 6 Win-Place finishes in 9 starts. In the next video, the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Preview held at Ellis Park on August 5th breaking with odds of 8.3-1 she closed fast. Same for second race back with a running line of "gaining". Post 10 and an opening 1/4 from Thorograph race shape of :25.62 means she may get hung up wide into first turn.
On Leave, Conditioned by McGaughey with Geroux up for Stuart Janney (White/Cherry Belt/Cherry Sleeves) a 5 YO War Front Mare, has $918K in earnings in 18 starts with 7 wins. 4 of 5 in the money at the distance, 14 of 18 in the money over grass and a race third best adjusted quarter time of :24.97 that should allow him to move over out of the gate from post 11. Blinkers On.
Two back for On Leave is a game Distaff Mile on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs. At 4.1-1 the mare lost in last few hops to the classy Proctor's Ledge.
Last Promise Kept breaks from post 12 and has little tactical speed but a big closing run with a late turn of foot Timeform late race pace fig of 103. This is two races back in June in Delaware an OC 25K N2x.
UPDATE 2:46 PM: Scratch 1 Celestial Insight and 7 Con Te Parito
Another very good betting race this weekend. I'll be assembling some sort of Exacta that will look something along these lines:
$1 exacta 11-1-9 OVER 11-1-9-4-7-12-10-8 for $21. I'll be watching the Will Pays prior to the start of this race to exclude anything that doesn't seem value driven,
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today reading the $750 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.
This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007. Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate. This is going to be an excellent betting race. There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.
It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today. I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win. Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart. Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018
Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.
Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts. One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt.
Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite. In his last ten races he's one three times: an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017. The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park. Woof! He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131. Here he was in good form at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.
Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well. An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.
Irap: WSVX FM
The nearly $3.0 Million dollar earning Gunnevera will be coming late, but will he have enough tactical speed early on to be well positioned. That's something the handicapper must consider. I'm betting against him to win and I'm not even sure I'll cover him to Place (and yes, that should all but assure he does win!)
I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti. I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all).
Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.
West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.
If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.
Razorback Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed
Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty. Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me.
Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out. While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles. 5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.
While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta.
In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1 at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year. I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.
Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence. Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K.
Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs. Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).
I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line. Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.
I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw. I tossed Imperative as I think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes. I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts. I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.
So what to do with all this?
I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets. I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward. My early thoughts are:
$1 Exacta: 10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7 $15
That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny RidgeOver Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)
That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea. This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap. Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.
Dear friends, family and readers, Welcome to the Turk and the Little Turk, where today I am celebrating the 600th blog posting, dating back to 21 September 2008.
It was a different time when this blog began.Twitter and Facebook were still just starting to take hold, and whole communities of bloggers banded together by subject material, and the one I gravitated to was horse racing.
I thought I could provide free, No BS Past Performance analysis and bet structures to my readers, as well as develop some horse racing fan friendships. I've accomplished those relatively modest goals and my only regret is declining readership and a lack of feedback in the form of comments. There are times when I feel like I'm talking in space, inside my helmet, with no one listening. I made a decision to blog for myself, first and foremost, and if I can grow my incredibly rapid group of core readers, so be it. There was a moment a few years ago when I thought about hanging it up. I kept asking myself if I still enjoyed reaching 100 people per post. After time to think about it, the answer is always yes, The Turk will endure until I no longer have anything to offer.
I've included some images that appeared in this blog over the years. I'm proud that this blog consistently produces top shelf handicapping and not too shabby bet construction. I'm as dedicated and excited about the next 600 posts as I was the past 600. I'll never compete with the bigger blogs, I'll never get thousands of views per post, advertisers will never be craving space on my margins, and I'm good with all that: I'm a hack handicapper who doesn't bedazzle anyone with fancy terminology or systems and I'm content with this blog being what it is. The Turk blog would never have happened if it wasn't for the internet kindness of Equispace blogger and now Buffalo News Turf Writer Gene Kershner. Blame him!
A Little Turk Halloween circa 2007
Little Turk and I: Arlington Millions Preview Day 2007
The Turk in the IRS Cashing Lane at the Spa 2006
What I thought would be the last Derby Winner and the Next Derby Winner: Mine that Bird and Eskendereya
The Turk's Office: Street Sense, Curlin, Rachael, Ruffian, Mine That Bird, Rags to Riches
A cold Breeders' Cup Day at Churchill
Lost by a Nose to John Henry
Horse Racing Friend Tim "Tiznow" Reynolds-Rest in Peace
Three Generations of Turk at the Spa 2007
A Corbin Clan gathering at Arlington
The Turk Clan
On a cold and rainy Preakness Saturday 2013
Pioneerof the Nile winning the Santa Anita Derby 2009
Little Turk at Arlington Million 2016
A mature Grandma Turk and Sister Turk at Fort Erie
Finallymadeit, a multiple graded-stakes winner and $1 million earner, fractured his left front cannon bone Tuesday morning over the main track at Saratoga and had to be euthanized. Finallymadeit had been preparing for this Saturday's Whitney Handicap .
The above picture was taken by the Turk in the Saratoga paddock just before his last start in the James Marvin Stakes on opening day.
Our thoughts and prayers are with his connections, including the folks at the Eclipse Training Center in Ocala, Fla.
