The Nomination Is In: The $100,000 Sand Springs Stakes at Gulfstream

Gulfstream Park: Photo Mason Kelley

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, now in our 11th season of providing questionable handicapping and atrocious bet construction to people who never asked for it.  Actually, the handicapping and bet construction is not too shabby, and I focus on what I do well, and more importantly enjoy more, and that's older horses running over grass.  Everyone is about to be sucked into Kentucky Derby fever, and that's very cool, but 2 and 3 YO horses have never been my strong suit and I'll leave that sort of thing to people who are better at it and care more about it than I do.  At Gulfstream today, Florida Derby fever is kicking in with Race 14 going off at 6:36 ET, but for me, I'm "practicing" today on Race 10 about two hours earlier, Sand Springs $100K for Fillies and Mares 4 YO and Up, one mile with the temp rail set at zero (alternates 0 to 60 feet).

Why do I practice?  Why does anyone practice anything, to improve and get better at a skill, and my craft is handicapping and bet construction.  I've been handicapping for 33 years, which alone is hard to believe, but true.  I still learn and my skills need need sharpening.  I often will handicap a dozen races and build bets, and not bet them, just for a mental exercise, just for practice.  I think all of us have some mental exercise we perform to stay sharp.  I work very long hours and I travel a lot for my job.  An hour or so here and there handicapping is the perfect mind relaxer that makes me better at my job as well.

For a turf guy, you don't have a lot of great options early in the calendar year.  I should have played Santa Anita which has some graded stakes over grass today, or even Japan, but the handicapper in me likes predicable situations with few variables and quite frankly I don't want any part of the craziness at Santa Anita until that situation calms down some.  I very much hope it does, horse racing can't afford to lose Hollywood Park and Santa Anita in Southern California.

Lets get after this handicap!




The Track was listed as Good as of March 29, you'll find an update to track conditions as well as scratches and changes here.  The #3 filly, Mrs. Ramona G is unfortunately scratched.  The weather looks like it should be dry up to and after post time.


The race looks chalky to me.  Carrying the most weight at 124 pounds is Trainer Breen's Valedictorian.  Two straight strong GP performances, 7 of 10 in the money over GP grass, a class drop for the Mare  who has a big early Timeform and will look to wire the field.  She should break and be at the front with Too Charming and Andina Del Sur through 4f.

Proctor's Ledge intrigues me here.  A grade 1/2 contender, the Mare is making first 2019 start, a layoff of 61-180 days that Trainer Walsh wins 15% of the time in 60 tries over past year.  An excellent :46 3/5ths 4f work 2 weeks ago makes me think she's ready.  4 pounds less than Valedictorian, she should be just off the pace and we'll have to consider if the speed that is in front will crack.  I'd like it better if turf was a bit softer but I'm not discounting. 

Too Charming and Andina Del Sur are more or less similar horses, both going for Trainer Albertrani.  Both will come out fast.  Both lack high end speed that carries.  Both have excellent pilots.  both in the mix for Place-Show-4th.

Best of the rest is Quebec.  A morning line 3-1, with Ortiz Jr Up for Trainer Robert "Bobby" Dibona who is looking for first stakes win and has two Grade 3 wins over a long time training.  I don't see it but at 118 pounds the horse has run well, has 90+ Beyers  and decent early speed that carries late. 

I'm keeping the betting simple:

$2 Trifecta  with 9-5 OVER 9-5 OVER 6-8-4-2  is worth $16 while a lean mean $2 Tri with 9 OVER 5 OVER 6-8-4-2 is $8.


Have fun with it friends!  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Skip Away and Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

I love the big weekends like the next horse racing fan, and as a fan, I'm excited to see Union Rags and El Padrino face each other, but ugh, a rather uninspiring field is mixed in with them, and the card in general doesn't do much for me, so as a bettor, I'll pass on Gulfstream Park.

The duality of bettor and fan can coexist, but you have to do your best to not think with your heart. As a fan, embrace the horses with all your passion. It never gets old for me seeing these equine three year olds progress throughout the spring on a march towards the Kentucky Derby. The reality is that most of the Triple Crown nominated horses will not be successful on the biggest stages. Some of them will end up like Uptowncharliebrown, competing in today's Skip Away, other's, like Z Camelot will have a future on the turf. Regardless if they complete in graded stakes or optional claimers as long as they are well cared for, I'm excited to see them run and I love following their careers. In fact, I find the older horses more interesting and my mind and heart is captured by the runners who weren't the best three year olds but went out to do great things later in life. That's a bit of blasphemy, but oh well, I'm a blogger, I'm allowed to not spout the company line.

As a gambler I have no such emotions. I am looking for races that I can decoded and in order to have a good betting race you need some parity. Parity is what makes picking winners harder and what creates betting situations that are worthy of a capital investment. It is capital investing after all, more risky than some internet IPO, but as has been proven over and over again by disciplined bettors, if you stay consistent and you ride the good times and the bad, and most importantly, you know what you are doing, the rewards can be reaped.

I wasn't expecting the Florida Derby to be a great betting race, and what really hardened my mind to not betting Gulfstream today was the lack of a better older horse turf race, as the Appleton isn't very compelling. I will be paying attention to the Gulfstream Park Oaks, as I like Hard Spun's daughter, Zo Impressive, who trounced In Lingerie last time out.

Perhaps the last few paragraphs sounded like whining, that was not my intention; as a bettor we have many choices every weekend, my only point is you can be a fan and watch and not bet the card. Bet where you think you have the best chance to win. Keep it real, look for winners at odds greater than 4-1 and swing for the fences at the $2 window. Keep your money for the Single Barrel Jack you'll consume later. I'll be drinking some later with the classy folks from the Turk fan club.

I like my trainers with thin barns but deep integrity. That gentleman above is a man's man, a hero. I think of him in the same thoughts as Johnathan Sheppard and Bill Mott, Michael Matz.

I did handicap the card and I'll share my jaded thoughts on two of the races.




The weather should not be an issue. As always, keep an eye on track conditions and scratches and changes.

Have fun with it. I'm still studying my options but I think Santa Anita may be my alternative today. Turk Out!

Happy Birthday Tim- You are very missed!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 28, 2009

The Turk didn't have any expectations with the Dubai races except to enjoy the races themselves as well as gain experience handicapping foreign horses with scant information on the PPs. The Florida Derby on the other hand, I had high expectations to not only handicap well, but to possibly find a betting situation that would result in a big payout. Well one out of two ain't bad.

Race 10 GulfStream Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



With two scratches, the field got a bit too small, and the money a bit too big on what the betting public sensed were the only three horses worthy of betting. They were right, but as a bettor, you're not happy when everyone else has the same opinion as you. The Trifecta paid $6.00. I did some quick math a few minutes before post and thought the Trifecta would be no more the $10.00, and with a minimum payout expectation threshold of $30.00 that I shoot for, I passed. I had two bets ready to go, and one of them was the straight trifecta, but again, a bettor like me who likes to eeck out good returns on small risk just didn't see the point.

But I'm ahead of myself. The race itself was semi-dramatic for about a furlong. Quality Road hit the stretch and the only one ready to meet him was Dunkirk. The two fine colts, the best two colts in this race, traded the for several hops before Quality Road dug in gamely and won by a length and a quarter. A solid handicapper that I know suggested to me prerace that Theregoesjojo's trainer had the horse leave something in the tank during the running of the Fountain of Youth. While I do think the horse came out of that race fresh, I also think the reality is Theregoesjojo is a quality Grade III winner, an threat for Grade II wins, and not a true Grade I horse. I'll get hate mail, but that's the way I see it. The 401 Triple Crown nominees are down to about 10 real Grade I studs and a group of 30 or so Grade II's and then some serious parity competing for Allowance Races and Grade III's. No crime in being what you are, Class comes not from what was paid for the animal, but what level the horse can consistantly be competitive at.

A solid, solid win that propels Quality Road to the top of my Derby favorites and I only hope that Trainer Jerkens finds a way to keep him sharp, but I don't think I need to worry about the horse knowledge in that man's DNA.



I feel like I want the hours of my life back handicapping Dubai. I was pretty unsucessful with the races I blogged, and I did OK with some other races on the card, but blogger ethics prevent me from bragging about races I don't previously announce my intentions with. I've got the video, including a great Japanese race call of the Dubai Duty Free. The video on both race shows a rather non compelling result, not to take anything away from either winner. I was very impressed by Well Armed. I've always liked him, but perhaps never enough to pick him over his contempories like the late Go Between.

Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai Duty Free Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on Turf for 4 YO and Up.





Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai World Cup Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 4 YO and Up.

The Nomination Is In: March 28, 2009- The Florida Derby Grade I

The stakes are high at today's Florida Derby. There is $750,000 of graded stakes money up for grab, and the last opportunity for some of these colts to earn a way into the Kentucky Derby. Five of the nine starters are Triple Crown nominated, but the one that gets my chalk is currently un-nominated, Quality Road. I guess I'm a bit surprised by the size of the field, and the lack of true Grade I competitors, but we can't handicap who should be here, only who walks into that paddock dreaming of hay, carrots and the cheers.

Race 10 Gulfsteam Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



I am doing my best to ignore the hype machine that surrounds Dunkirk. Perhaps the 3.7 million dollar Unbridled's Song colt deserves the accolades, but being old fashioned I like to see a horse beat quality graded stakes competition before I'm willing to scrawl chalk all over its hip. Will that mean I won't be part of clamoring masses who have already coronated this horse "super"? Perhaps, but then again, I'm generally out of step with society anyhow, why start now to conform.

With that rant issued, I am left no where else to turn but Quality Road. It's not like I'm the pretty girl settling for the bald introverted guy (a remark which the Turk resembles), Quality Road earned a 113 BSF in his win in the Fountain of Youth. He's had a running duel with Theregoesjojo, and I think he's better, and he likes to be pushed, and all that means I think he'll be the best today. Is this a stone cold Turkish lock? Far from it, but this is horse racing, and the dirt (or that paraffin like stuff that maybe is safer maybe isn't) is the crucible that determines winners from pretenders. To the sharp eyed amongst you, that is Barbaro, resplendant Barbaro winning the Florida Derby in 2006. Now that was a horse!