The Nomination Is In: The Whitney G1 at Saratoga

Welcome, Friends, to The Turk, a horse racing blog celebrating its 19th year of not being read.  

My primary focus in horse racing is Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. That said, I handicapped Dirt racing for the better part of 35 years before I settled on Turf as my niche.  

This year I've been rather quiet with my blog, not that I'm quitting; I'll never truly give up my love of the races and blogging, but every few years I take a pause.  Whenever I return to racing from these "handicapper holidays," I return a bit rusty, but with a renewed sense of enjoyment.  I'm currently on one of these handicapper holidays, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me to share my thoughts on a very loaded Whitney field, and how could I refuse?    

Loaded.  Career Earnings:  Magnitude: $9.6 MM.  White Abarrio: $8.6 MM.  Sovereignty: $6.3 MM. Nitrogen: $2.7 M.  Baeza: $2.2 MM.  Antiquarian and Tiztastic each other: $1.2 MM.  Only one horse in the field below one million in career earnings, 4 YO Forged Steel, sits at $0.4 MM.  

This isn't the sort of race that requires a lot of hand-wringing as a handicapper.  Multiple potential winners exist in this field.  Only one question comes to mind when I look at this field:  Can I find value compelling enough to bet? 

I'm not the sort of horse player that plays for "action"; I no-bet many more races than I actually bet.  What sort of horse player are you?  If you do this long enough, if you invest enough of your hard-earned investment capital into this sport, you have to be able to answer that question.  We've seen so many good players die off, age out, or simply jump to other sports books.  It's a craft; please work at it and think about your strengths and weaknesses. I tend to get a bit nerdy with my analysis, but there are many ways to go about picking winners. 

As I said, I'm a bit rusty, but this race as I will explain (if it is not obvious) is less handicapping and more bet construction.  Win bets with a few horses down the tote board might be worth the investment.  Exacta bets? I would have liked to see a few more 8-to-10-to-1 closers to couple with a speed horse, but you have to work with what you got.  Let's build a base handicap first and then jump to bet construction.

Let's get after it!

First, some videos of interest.

While it was a smaller field, and the track was off a bit, The Stephen Foster G1 might be a good example of how The Whitney will unfold:  Magnitude was hustled out of the gate and took the rail.  White Abbario pressed.  Sovereignty and Baeza laid back and came late, but Magnitude really impressed with a late turn of foot.  

27 June 2026:  CD:  The Stephen Foster Handicap G1;  1 1/8 Miles on Dirt slop.  

4 July 2026: SAR: The Suburban G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt.

5 June 2026: SAR: The Ogden Phipps G1 (F); 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt

I built this chart to try and capture current form on these big Beyers (Dirt Starts only).  The mean is denoted by the vertical tick line, and circles in green are the last three races, and circles in red are older efforts.  I can't say I'm a fan of the idea that Nitrogen is entered here. She clearly loves Saratoga, 3 for 3 with three Graded Stakes wins, two Grade 1s,  including the prestigious Alabama.  Still, these are pretty deep waters for her.  Ortiz jumps off for Magnitude and Velazquez is up. 

This next chart visualizes the Timeform US Early to Late Pace figures.  It's important to combine this with the eye test, with Magnitude's late speed in The Stephen Foster just as up to the task as the others.  What throws off a horse like Magnitude?  Winning by 9  in the Risen Star and Iowa Derby doesn't help.  Coasting.  Sovereignty cracking to White Abarrio in the Oaklawn Handicap and getting toasted by Baeza up the stretch in the Stephen Foster belies his late speed impregnability.  

Numbers/Figs + Eye Test + Running Lines/Call Positions is the proper way to interpret these athletes.  

If I had to guess, I'd say the track will be Fast by post time, but some heavy rains are possible Friday.  Check here for track condition/scratches and changes.  For as inefficient as I think of NYS government, NYRA is a pretty well-run website.  

I'm really much more interested as a fan of the sport than as a horseplayer.   If you look at my chart above, you'll see the morning lines add up to 131%.   Two things drive the excess. The first is takeout: New York win pools hold back roughly 16%, so even the final odds on the board will sum to about 119%, not 100%. Pari-mutuel odds are computed after the track's cut comes out of the pool, so they can never sum to 100% by construction. The second is that the linemaker adds cushion on top: he's projecting how the money will fall, and rounding to standard increments (nobody posts 7.3-1), which pushes the total higher still.

If the Turk had more people and access to streaming API data, he'd auto-populate that chart with a column that compared the Adjusted Morning Line to the Fair Odds to the Actual Betting Odds.  Until the powers that be in horse racing stop overcharging for data streams, that won't happen, and it's not worth the effort to do for the blog, but I absolutely do it at the track.  I literally just sit there right up until post, comparing my fair line to betting odds.  That's what you need to do to find value!

Worth noting, Tiztastic at 1.0% and Forged Steel at 2.0% imply 100-1 and 48-1. In a field this small, with no first-time starters and every runner graded-stakes placed, almost nothing is truly a 1% chance. A bad trip for three horses ahead of you gets a live longshot into the picture more often than that. Squeezing the tail is also what funds the top-heavy numbers: Turk's top three combine for 84.1% (win odds) against the public's 63.2%. While I don't disagree and know what I did with the fair odds,  I just don't feel the need to take into account the 3 times in one hundred that one of those two horses would run and win this race in a simulation.  

If you're really nerdy, I take some shortcuts with my Turk Fair Line that I've never really explained. Let's explore the math.  

The Turk takes the Morning Line and creates an Adjusted Morning Line, which proportions each horse to fit within a 0-100% scale.  There are other ways to do this.

• Turk's Adjusted ML Method: Proportional takes the same percentage off everyone — 23.7% of each horse's raw number. Simple, always valid, and it's what most people use.

• Additive takes the same number of points off everyone: 3.89 each (31.13/8). But the problem is, Tiztastic goes negative, which is why nobody uses it on a 131% line with a long tail of marginally poor runners. 

• Power solves for the exponent k that makes the total hit 100.  In this example,  k = 1.173. Because raising a small number to a power above 1 shrinks it harder than a large one, the tail absorbs more of the vig. Tiztastic goes from 39-1 under your method to 55-1.

• Shin (Professor Hyun Song Shin- for another Turk rambling day) models the line as containing some fraction of informed money — z = 4.84% here — and backs that out. It hits the tail hardest of all: Tiztastic at 75-1.

Power and Shin are better suited for horse racing because of the favorite–longshot bias.  Bettors systematically overbet longshots and underbet favorites, so a longshot's posted price carries more of the margin than a favorite's. Both methods capture that.  

Proportional (what the Turk does) assumes the margin is spread evenly, which the empirical record says it isn't.

Proportional makes longshots look more likely than the public really thinks. The Turk's adjusted column says the public gives Tiztastic 2.46%; Shin says the public's real opinion will be closer to 1.3%. 

How I adjust for this, and where I say I'm cutting corners, is when I buold my Fair Line odds table and apply a Shin-like adjustment mentally (again, the back office of monkeys is just me), so the 1.0% on Tiztastic isn't as far off the public as Proportional suggests.  

This goes both ways, as Turk's fair line 33.3% on Magnitude looked like a big edge over the adjusted 27.24%. Against Power 29.88%, the edge shrinks by a third.

Ultimately, all that really matters is what the public thinks of the horses on the tote board, and one factor that is making it harder for the little horse player to look at these odds against the tote board is how the tote board can move so rapidly through Computer-assisted wagering (CAW).

Unless you're under a rock, a handful of high-volume teams get access to a direct data feed (which the Turk and any other smaller bettor can't get) from the tote system and place enormous bets through automated systems in the final seconds before the gates open. Because pari-mutuel odds are just a function of how the money is distributed in the pool, a large late injection recalculates everything — and by the time the new odds display, the race is already running. You bet a horse at 8-1 and watch him finish at 9-2, all the while these whale teams are getting huge wage rebates.  It's just of a number of factors that are making it harder for Joe Horseplayer to scratch out positive returns.  

Anyway, I think I digressed.  

I like Sovereignty at Saratoga, but I like him at Classic distance more than this.  I think Magnitude will take the lead early. Will he get pressured early? Just thinking about the trainers for a moment.

Asmussen's Magnitude stablemate, Tiztastic,  will only harass early if Magnitude isn't in the lead, but he's really shown no ability to press early.  Mott's Baeza and Sovereignty won't show each other any quarter.  Joesph perhaps will press Forged Steel hard into Magnitude early and keep White Abarrio pressing for his opportunity.  Same owners makes that decision easier for the conditioner. 

It's important to remember we aren't running this race as a Monte Carlo simulation, over and over again within a computer.  

I'm going to box Antiquarian who trained very sharp at Saratoga for Pletcher last week, Baeza and Magnitude, a 3 horse, $2 bet for $12.  If Baeza or Antiquarian can somehow win and Magnitude in Place, there's value worth hunting.  

Why Antiquarian? Why not.  I liked him better than the filly, better than White Abarrio.  This is more about value and looking for slightly improbable than betting highly probable chalk.  

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Gamely Grade 1 at Santa Anita

 

Rashmi- Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 19th season of Horse Racing Handicapping, where we have (almost) exclusively handicapped Turf Racing for (mostly) Four year old's and Up over (generally) Routes of Grass up to the Classic Distance.  How is that for a niche blog POV writing about a niche sport in decline?  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today.

19 Seasons of Blogging.  I'm not sure if that is an accomplishment or a sad indictment on my life's choices.  I thought Horse Racing was in decline culturally in 2007, and in hindsight the loss of racetracks and the drop in handle should have made it obvious what was coming.  

The statistics are sobering.  There are years when I wonder why I do what I do, but the fact is, I love the animals.  The people, some I like, most I don't, but these equine athletes are who I am loyal to and who I love.   They were bred to run, and while I mourn the race track deaths, without racing, these animals wouldn't be bred at all.  

Where are we now? Total handle on US Thoroughbred racing in 2025 was $11 billion — a sobering number when you put it next to when I started in 2007. 

Here's the big picture:

• 2003 peak: $15.2 billion
• 2007: $14.7 billion
• 2025: $11.0 billion

When factoring in inflation, betting handle has fallen about 57% over the last 22 years. 2025 marked the sixth time in the last seven years that handle has fallen. 

The number of US races fell below 30,000 for the first time since the mid-1950s.

There are many reasons for this, with Computer Assisted Wagering near the top of my list as a player, plus shortsighted and foolish human leadership.  

The one bright spot: bettors wagered more per race than any year in history besides the Covid year of 2020 — so the people still playing are betting more, there are just far fewer of them.

To me, the bigger issue is the loss of racetracks.  While we still have most of the major tracks, they are supported by smaller tracks all over the country, and those are disappearing.  No fewer than 49 racetracks have closed since 2000, and at least a dozen of those closures have come since Covid in 2020 alone. I never thought in my lifetime we'd see Aqueduct, Arlington Park, Hialeah, Hollywood Park and Golden Gate Fields all gone, and that's just to name a few.  

Arlington Park in Illinois after 94 years, Golden Gate Fields in California after 83 years, and Freehold Raceway in New Jersey after 171 years. On the West Coast, Hollywood Park closed in 2013 after 75 years and Bay Meadows closed in 2008 after 74 years.

Since 2000, 41 racetracks permanently closed, with 26 of those within the last 10 years. In contrast, only 2 new racetracks with casinos opened. 

The blunt bottom line: the industry has lost roughly one track every five months for 25 years straight, with almost nothing opening to replace them. Kentucky is essentially the last island of health in the sport, propped up by casino and Historical Horse Racing money, while the rest of the country contracts. 

Combined with the handle data — $15.2 billion in 2003 down to $11 billion in 2025 — it paints a picture of an industry that has lost nearly half its infrastructure and about 30% of its wagering base in a single generation.

When I was growing up in the late 1970's and early 1980's, Formula One, Horse Racing and Heavy Weight Boxing were my favorite sports.  I read the sports page of the newspaper and I was a Sports Illustrated subscription holder and I watched ABC Wide World of Sports.  All three of those sports were headed for the dustbin of irrelevancy, but Formula One figured it out and it's booming, while Boxing is a shell of itself and horse racing infighting and lack of real leadership is killing the sport before our eyes.  

F1 Values (USD)

But I digress, you came to maybe read about 3 year old and up Fillies and Mares in the Grade 1 Comely and I'm writing the obituary of horse racing.  It may die, but not today! Lets get after it. 

Early to Late TIMEFORM PACE

The chart above is a Left to Right visualization of the early speed to the closing speed. Thought Process is the most consistent Early Speed, Rashmi with a small sample size is fastest flat runner while Take a Breath and Hang the Moon are Deep closers.  

The chart above counts the number of 20-26 and 2025 races only.  The Standard Deviation is a way of implied consistent efforts.  In a small sample size Rashmi has three Beyer Speed Figures of very similar outcomes, raced respectively at 1 Mile on Firm Turf at Santa Anita.  She own 2 of the 4 90+ Beyer Speed Figs recorded since 2025 by this group.  

It's getting harder as the years go on to find video on all the races.  Apologies, Fan Duel mostly uploads Top of the Stretch to the Wire video, but that said, I found the last race for every runner in the field which is unusual.  

25 April 2026: Santa Anita: The Royal Heroine G3; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Take a Breath (Win), May Day Ready (Place 1/2 back)

12 April 2026: Keeneland: Allowance N1X $97K; 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf; Vronti (GB) (Win by 1/2 length)

28 March 2026; Gulfstream Park: Sand Springs Lane $150K; 1 1/16 Firm Turf ; Hang the Moon (Place-neck)

28 March 2026; Santa Anita: The Wilshire G3; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; Rashmi (Win by 2 3/4)

15 March 2026 Santa Anita:  Santa Ana Stakes G3; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Take A Breath(W), Public Assembly (1st to 4th last furlong)

28 February 2026: Santa Anita: The Buena Vista G2; 1 Mile  Firm Turf; Thought Process (Win by 2)

Is that enough information for you?  It's too much for one race, but I like to practice like I play.   I handicap a lot of races that I don't play, I handicap the same way, with consistent data analysis, and when I do play, my ROI on Turf, at Distance, with older runners, is consistently good.  Could I make a living doing this?  No.  Can I have fun when I do occasionally bet money, absolutely!

I'll come back and update the chart at my blog when they publish the Morning Lines.  I don't use Morning Lines for handicapping but I like them for reference against my fair odds.  

I suspect Thought Process will be the betting public pick.  I'm not sure he shouldn't be, but I'm looking at value and I'll be leaving him out of the exacta at my own peril, at best adding him to Place.  Rashmi, the next great Augustin Stable winner for owner and Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member George Strawbridge Jr, is my pick.  

It's early, lots of Turf racing to go in 2026, and for me, now is about figuring out who's a contender and who's a pretender. The time for wagering comes when I've seen a few races from each of these horses to know what we have on our hands.

Have fun friends, Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The River City Handicap G3 at Churchill Downs

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  "Specialize" is not how I feel this week, as I had Ethical Diamond at something like 3% chance to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.  I'd love to tell you how I thought highly of him and he was my wise guy pick, yada, yada, yada, but no.  I don't think I would have picked that horse, considering the field he was in, to finish in my exacta unless I boxed the whole field.  Beware the handicapper and bet constructor who can't admit he was wrong.  I'm going to diagnose both my handicap, pre race analysis and the video in a longer post tomorrow, just because I like pain and I also like to try to learn.  The only sign was improving Timeforms, but in that field, at his post draw, I still don't see it.  Anyways, I'll stop grumbling.

Turf racing is over for the year.  Yes I know there are some races, but for all legitimate purposes, it's done.  When you like turf racing, and you like older horses, this time of the year is slow and slim pickings, but the good people at The Thorofan asked me (they didn't read my Breeders' Cup debacle....shhh, or they won't invite me again) handicap the River City at Churchill Downs, so that is the mission.  

It's not a terrible field.  This time of year you get older horses possibly taking one last run before retirement or 4 YOs who are building on their improvements, with very little high end class, or graded stakes wins, to show for it.  

Conversely, not a lot of video I think worth looking at for this race.  Interestingly, so much of this field is early speed, and not a lot of success in the field at the distance, with only five (5)  1 and  1/8 Mile wins combined.  

Before I go to far, I'd be tone death to not mention that Louisville is having a terrible week following the airplane crash that left at least 13 dead, with 9 or more missing.  Say a prayer for the area as they continue to heal and bury the dead. Prayer, regardless of your beliefs, helps, and never lose sight of the fact that as humans, we are all interconnected.

The weather should be mostly dry after some rain on Friday.  Keep an eye on turf conditions, as this is the last race on the card tomorrow at almost 6 PM and two other races, non graded stakes, are on the card.  Today is listed as firm with rail at 36 feet, it's max position.  

Let's Get After This:

Exacta History: Exacta In The Money (ITM) > 60% in BOLD

Visualization of Early and Late US Timeform Pace: Three true late speed, a few tactical, albeit slow mid runners and a bunch of very early speed.  

I set Par for this race as 75 Early and 105 Late

Tomlinson Number Analysis with Focus on Distance

8 Nov 2025 CD; The River City Handicap G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Turf

So, What to do with all that?  If I'm being honest, I think I'm burned out on handicapping this year because I'm without a very strong opinion. Everyone can sometimes use a break, and post Breeders' Cup I generally shut it down.  It doesn't help I uked all over myself in my annual Super Bowl, The Breeders' Cup Turf (can you tell I'm gripping?).  

I'm going to value the late speed of Chasing the Crown/6:  Loves Churchill, 6 for 6 in the exacta.  Has a win 1/2 furlong shorter so I'm not holding the distance against him but its a wildcard he has to overcome.  Not the best horse in the field, not the best trainer/jock combo, but I like all of it added together. My chalk.

I like Taking Candy/12 more than others, and I have the 5 YO son of Twirling Candy for Lael Stables as a win contender I like his early tactical speed and decent late turn of foot.  Place in G2 two back and a G3 win four back.  

I have a crowded group just below these two that I think are all legitimate exacta contenders.  

Corruption/8 is an improving 4 YO who has just been building all 2025 after entering the year as a maiden.  Acquitted himself well in 4th in The Manhattan in the deep G1 waters, same in the Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs.

Lagynos/9 doesn't win much, 3 wins in last 18 but 9 Place and Show in that time frame.  $1.7 MM lifetime winner, won the $500K Tapit at Kentucky Downs by 5 lengths and ran back in Place 9 days later in a grade 3.  Off since September 6, a break Asmussen wins 16% of the time on 485 tries.  Dettori is up, winless in 5 CD starts over past year.  

Epic Ride/2 is a $1.9 MM career winner  at 4 YO and a 2024 Kentucky Derby entrant before going to turf in June of 2025.  1 turf win in 4 tries and today the longest stretch out beyond 8 furlongs since the Kentucky Derby.  Big early speed.  Quality horse, no doubt.  More questions for me than answers.  

Encino/4 is a Brad Cox, gaudy stats Brad, (24% Graded Stakes Winner, 22% Turf, 27% Synth to Turf, 28% Routes, 26% winner at CD with I. Ortiz, Up)with another improving 4 YO making only his 3rd turf start.  First time at CD, First time at distance on turf, very classy son of Nyquist for Godolphin.  More questions than answers as well.  

Mercante/7 had a very good start to season in 2025, winning 3 of first 5  races before going backward a bit.  Oddly placed as 60-1 shot at Keeneland  in Turf Mile last month, cutting back 4 furlongs  from Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Has a Place Finish/101 Beyer at this track and distance in May in a Grade 1  and followed that up with a G3 with 1/2 furlong shorter at CD.  Not sure what to make of him.

If I boxed 6-12-8-9-4-2 (Skipping Mercante) for $2, that's a $60 bet.  Too pricy and lousy risk/reward.  This improves somewhat dropping the 4-2 from Win Position, a $2 bet for $24.  That's my base bet.

If you are playing after the Breeders' Cup, I tip my hat to you, a real horseplayer.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Updated Whitney Bet Construction

   Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  The Turk has his methods, and they work for me.  One of those methods I employ is to not allow outside bias into my handicapping.  Years ago I had a subscription to Bloodhorse, a wonderful magazine, and I would read about the horses, the trainers and the connections, and biases would form.  I'm a sucker for a good story, who isn't? I'm also a degenerate gambler and there is no place in gambling for biases because the horse is named in memory of someone.  I'm not a robot, I love a good human interest story, just after I handicap and place my bets.  Occasionally that works against me as I guess I was one of the few people who didn't realize Mindframe was going to be scratched. Generally I would see on my Past Performances "Also Entered" with a date and then I know its a chance, but this is a rare situation where two horses, trained by the same trainer, primarily owned by the same people, entered the same race planning to scratch one or the other.  I don't think it's good for horse racing for best not to face best, but whatever. 

The scratch changes nothing for me really and in fact makes my strategy easier.  Only one beast, Fierceness, needs to finish no better than Place, preferably no better than Show, and the exacta ticket gets saucy.  

7-2-3 OVER 7-2-3-5-9, a $2 exacta for $24 dollars.  It's pricier than I like or may do, but the handle will justify it.   Here's hoping Fierceness drops to Show. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Whitney G1 at Saratoga

Fierceness opening in The Alysheba

                                                                                                                                         Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap turf races and construct exacta bets.  While I do like Turf Racing, especially older horses over a route of grass, I don't ignore the dirt, especially this current crop of older dirt runners that is deep and very talented.  I still generally avoid 2-3 YOs on dirt because I just find I'm not that good at that, but a field like today's Whitney at Saratoga, who can't be excited?

I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan as always for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  You can find my work at my new Facebook Page as well as a new Twitter/X handle, or just come to my blog.  Thank you.

Let's just dive right in.  I'm only highlighting two videos today, Mindframe's Stephen Foster Handicap win and Fierceness at The Alysheba.  I could have kept going but something like the Met Mile, run in slop, just isn't that relevant.  

28 June 2025; Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at CD:  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt

 

2 May 2025; The Alysheba Stakes G2 at CD: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt (Track Record for Fierceness)

 

I generally don't get that hung up on stats such as post time favorites who win, but as this shows below, two turn dirt races at Saratoga are kinder to chalk than the moniker of "graveyards of favorites" would have you believe.  There is also difficult odds with deep closers . 

I define deep closers as I'm handicapping by subtracting Timeform US Pace Late from Early.  Anything greater than 50 points and I consider that a deep closer.  For example today, Sierra Leone has Early of 62, a Late of 132, a +70 differential.  You can see it in the running lines.  Because of the placement of the gate right before the first turn, Sierra Leone will fall further back tactically and will need a pace collapse to rally against.  My identified deep closers also includes Disarm and Post Time.  

Outside posts, like most tracks, will have lower odds.  Quality horses defy those odds.  For no particular reason, I give you 2008's Kentucky Derby and Big Brown (rest in peace Eight Belles).  

Some facts to nibble on regarding Saratoga (with sources linked below):

• Among all two‑turn dirt races at Saratoga, the completion‐of‐the‐distance (post time favorites) win rate is around 42.8%. (1)
• In those races, the majority of winners tend to be either early speed horses (pacesetters) or trackers/stalkers, while true deep closers have notably less success, especially on the main track—closing types rarely prevail unless the pace collapses. (2) 

• Wire‑to‑wire/front‑runner winners likely account for roughly 30–40% of wins at this distance, depending on pace.
• Closers probably win in the low‑teens percentage, especially on main‑track routes.
• Stalkers/pressers dominate many of the remaining races. (2) (3)

• The starting gate for 9‑furlong dirt races at Saratoga is positioned just before the first turn, which gives inside posts (1–4) a meaningful advantage if the horse has early speed, as they can secure a favorable position before the turn. (4)
• Historically, the inside four posts have shown a slight edge in win percentage in Saratoga two‑turn dirt races (i.e. at the 9 furlong distance). (5)
• Races from posts 8 and wider have been statistically disadvantaged: in one analyzed sample, horses drawn from post positions 8 and outward combined to be 1‑for‑31 in victories, roughly ~3% win rate from those wide posts. (5)
• That leaves middle posts (5–7) winning a substantial share of races, sometimes outperforming expectations or at least compensating for favoritism bias. (5)

• If drawn post 1–3 in a 9‑furlong dirt route at Saratoga: your horse has historically enjoyed a ~50–55% chance of being the winner.
• Drawing post 4–6 still offers a solid ~10–12% win rate, reflective of middle-post performance.
• Posts 7 onward yield drastically lower success rates—typically <5% per post—mainly due to early turn dynamics and shorter run to the first bend. (6)

The weather should be dry.  You'll find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes here.

Fair Odds: The Whitney Grade 1 at Saratoga.  

 

A race like today's Whitney for me is about establishing who should win, how the public views them (via the flawed morning line, my fair odds chart and the tote board), and what sort of contrarian view I can take in my exacta bet construction.  I say in today's race, but this is a process I follow for every race, with the only difference on a big handle day like today will be, I may go a bit deeper as the reward will be greater with the bigger handle.  

While I want contrarian, and the odds still say somewhere between 60-67% of favorites lose, it's hard not to like either Fierceness of Mindframe here.  Early speed, Late speed, tactical speed, Pletcher brings two beasts into the gate.  

From a contrarian point of view, White Abarrio and Highland Falls are Grade 1 winners over this track and can easily be overlooked.

White Abarrio at 6 YO now won this race as a 4 YO.  He's been training at Saratoga steady since late June after running in the slop of the Met Mile.  A $1.7 MM 2025 winner  can't just be ignorned.  Highland Falls, true value at 8-1 or so, took the classic distance Gold Cup at Saratoga last September.  Prat jumped off, but Cox brings the lightly races 5 YO son of Curlin in off a heavy favorite 1 mile win.  

I'm going to take a $2 Flyer and put Highland Falls/White Abarrio OVER Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Mindframe, a $2 exacta for $12.  

As always, have fun with it and don't be afraid to lose.  As your handicapping improves, trust your own instincts over the bias of the media articles or track commentators, or bald, third person talking handicappers like The Turk.  Look for value over betting favorites.  

Turk Out!

Sources

1: Link

2: Link

3: Link

4: Link

5: Link

6: Link

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at Churchill Downs

Sierra Leone: Photo Credit Mark Abraham

                                                              Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 18th year.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today. 

While only a seven horse field, with one horse, Ashcroft, being a cut well below, the other six, wow:  All six combine for $25.9 MM in career earnings, a Breeders' Cup Classic Winner, a Kentucky Derby Winner, a Blue Grass Winner and a Dubai World Cup.  That's a pretty impressive field.  

Let's take a deeper dive into the field and look at some video as well.  

Oaklawn Handicap G2;  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 19 April 2025

The Churchill Downs G1; 7f on slop; 3 May 2025

 

The "Hollywood" Gold Cup G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt; 26 May 2025

 

New Orleans Classic G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 22 March 2025

 

Blame G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 31 May 2025

 

Clark Handicap G2; 1 1/8 on Fast Dirt; 29 November 2024 

 

Dubai World Cup G1; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt (LH)

 

So what to do with this?  I'll be honest, I'm not sure without seeing the toteboard odds.  I'm leaning towards Sierra Leone OVER First Mission and Skippylongstocking.  4 OVER 1 and 3, a $2 Dollar bet for $4.  

Nothing exciting, just my thoughts of what might have value.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out.  

The Nomination Is In: The Frank E. Kilroe Mile G1 at Santa Anita

Mi Hermano Ramon: Benoit Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk Blog where I write about turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I've been a horse racing fan most of my life, but didn't seriously start to handicap until 1986, and I've been doing it ever since.  The blog started in 2008 and continues on as a labor of love.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for offering me a chance to share my thoughts on this race with you today.  

The Frank E. Kilroe Mile is a prestigious Grade 1 turf race held annually at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. Named in honor of Frank Kilroe, a longtime racing secretary and influential figure in California horse racing, the race is contested at 8 furlongs over grass and is open to horses aged four years and older. It was raced at about the classic distance of 10 furlongs until 1987 before becoming a mile event. The event is held on Big Cap Day, Santa Anita Handicap, one of the biggest and most prestigious cards of the year at the great race place.  

First run in 1960, the race was originally known as the Arcadia Handicap before being renamed in 2001 to recognize Kilroe’s contributions to the sport. Over the decades, it has attracted some of the finest turf milers in horse racing history, including champions such as Lure, Wise Dan, and Gio Ponti and the filly, Proviso. 

The Frank Kilroe Mile remains a key race on turf racing calendar. It  serves as an important early-season test for elite turf horses. Santa Anita’s scenic backdrop and fast turf course makes the Kilroe Mile an early season turf racing kick off for this handicapper as the pickings over grass are pretty slim this time of the year, and its a good handle day with the Big Cap bettors.

You'll find scratches and changes here.  The weather should be good with no rain expected until Sunday.  I'm going to assume we are on the turf track and the turf is firm.  

Let's Get after It!

1 Feb 2025 The Thunder Road G3: 1 Mile on Firm Turf SA.  Air Force Red (Show), El Potente (W), Zio Jo (4th), Cabo Spirit (5th/9th)

26 December 2024 The San Gabriel G2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf at SA.  Mi Hermano Ramon (Place)

So what to do with all of this?  My instincts at the track would be to pass.  I really think as I handicapped there is ~ 66% chance the top two bet horses finish Win/Place.  The play for me here is to hope one of them finishes third.

1, 3 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 a $2 Exacta for $16.  If "winning" is important to you, not a bad bet selection.  If you want a long term ROI, tighten it up and take a stand:  Drop Mi Hermano Ramon to Show and single El Portente and now you have 3 over 5-6-7, a $2 Exacta for $6.  As your handicapping gets better, your hit rate will get better.   Why 5-6-7, lower morning odds horses?  Forget the Morning Line, build your own and look for horses that will be bet less on the tote board that have not so different odds than others, especially name recognition horses (Air Force Red, Cabo Spirit, Formidable Man). 

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes at Colonial Downs

 

Arlington Park in its full glory

I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me an opportunity to handicap and share my thoughts with you today.  You can find my handicapping and exacta bet construction at The Turk Blog.  I am The Turk and I've been a horse racing fan and handicapper for nearly 40 years and I started blogging in 2007.  

The Beverly D. Stakes has been a prestigious American horse race for Fillies and Mares, run right before The Arlington Million. Named in honor of Beverly Duchossois, the wife of Chicago businessman and horse racing enthusiast Richard Duchossois, the race has a rich history intertwined with the development of Arlington Park and its premier international turf racetrack.  While The Turk believes these famous race names should be retired and new traditions born, no one in power really cares what this two bit handicapper thinks.  Similarly, no one at CDI or the Illinois Racing Commission really care either that greed and shortsighted policy making destroyed this track, decimating the purses and putting it on the path to closure and then demolition.  Shame on these people that allowed a premier facility to be wiped off the map.  

The Beverly D. Stakes was inaugurated in 1987 as part of Richard Duchossois’s broader efforts to rejuvenate Arlington Park, which had suffered a devastating fire in 1985. The rebuilding of the park was an ambitious project, and the introduction of the Beverly D. Stakes was intended to elevate Arlington Park’s status in the international racing community. The race was designed as a companion event to the Arlington Million, a race that had already established itself as one of the premier turf races in the United States.  The Turk has told the story several times on my blog, but I was at the track the night of the fire.  I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center and answered the call to help with efforts at the scene.  That night left a lasting impression on me.  I was invested in the redevelopment of Arlington Park and later in life, my family and I took vacations to Chicago for Million Day at the track.  

From the outset, the Beverly D. Stakes was established to be a Grade I race, a status it lost beginning with this year's event. The race is run over a route of grass and historically attracted many international competitors, often using the race as a kickoff to Breeders' Cup campaigns. Run over a distance of 1 3/16 miles, The Beverly D. Stakes is open to fillies and mares aged three years and older.  With the demise of Arlington Park, the race bounced to Churchill Downs, but has been spun off to Colonial Downs, where the event anchors the biggest day of the racing calendar year and hopefully regains some of its luster as time goes by.  Because of the pending heavy rains from the tropical storm, the card shifted to Sunday and the turf course is being protected as best as possible in advance of the event.

And make no mistake about it, Arlington Million Day was a premier day on the calendar and network coverage always gave it a large audience. The sport has done so much damage to itself, but this is a sport that excels at finding new bottoms.   What the flawed human stewards of the sport cannot take away is the past and the glory of races like this.  One of the most memorable early winners was Flawlessly, who triumphed in 1992 after a long objection/inquiry delay. Trained by the legendary Charlie Whittingham, Flawlessly was a model of consistency and excellence on the turf, and her victory in the Beverly D. Stakes solidified her place as one of the leading turf mares of her era.

 

The Beverly D. Stakes has also been a stage for international success. Horses from Europe and other regions have frequently competed, often with great success. The 2013 victory by Dank, a British mare trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is one such example. Dank’s powerful late surge in the race not only earned her the Beverly D. Stakes title but also contributed to her being named the American Champion Female Turf Horse that year.

 

 My personal favorite is 2010, and Mr. Duchossois finally winning the race with Eclair de Lune (Ger), and as he wipes tears away from the winners circle, states that winning this race was more important to him than the Kentucky Derby.  Take that CDI.

 

 While I'm glad to see the race is run for $500,000, you have to understand it was $750,000 for many years at Arlington, dropping to $400,000 when it was at Churchill.  With inflation, these races are not the draws they were to the international racing community that they once were.  That's partially why we get a six horse Beverly D. field, a six horse Arlington Million field.  Losing its Grade 1 status doesn't help either.  

The Turk truly hopes a turf festival of speed and excitement takes hold at Colonial Downs, but I'm skeptical, not of these wonderful animals, or the connections, but of the short sightedness of the industry in general.   While I'd said I'd rather see these proud and legendary events retired and new events and history formed, I'm glad a horseman and true ambassador of the sport, Mr. Duchossois can be remembered, as well as the enduring memory of his beloved, Beverly.  

Enough rambling, lets get after it!

The weather will be wet on Friday but should improve Saturday and Sunday.  For now we will assume something nearing Good to Firm but if the rains pick up Sunday Good to Yielding.  Like many tracks, the website does not cater very much to horseplayers, so you'll find scratches/Changes and updated track conditions on a redirect to Bloodhorse via this link. 

Let's look at just three videos.

The Beverly D Preview $125K : 1 1/16 mile on soft turf 13 July 2024.  A five horse field, of which Nadette (Fr) embarrassed the rest of the field with her paid workout.  

The Diana G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf at SAR;  I really liked the close on Moira and not much to like about Ontario Bred Mission of Joy or PA Bred Neecie Marie. 

The New York G1:  1 3/16 Miles on Firm Turf at SAR 7 June.  Neecie Marie deserves another look for her bravery navigating traffic and giving Didia a run late.  Neecie Marie, gets Dettori up.  by the way, did you notice young Frankie in the '93 race won by Flawlessly?  Amazing career.  

Fev Rover (Ire) did little here, came back and cut back to 1 mile at Woodbine for her next outing.  The six year old is a year removed from winning the Grade 1 version of this race and the Grade 1 EP Taylor at Woodbine. $1.3 MM winner on $6,700 purchase, not too bad. 

What to do with all this?

In full disclosure,  I think I will play the Pick 3 All Graded Stakes that begins at 5:20 ET with the Grade 3 Secretariat, an 8 horse field of 3 YOs that I suspect will pop value, followed by The Beverly D. and the Arlington Million.  I think I will single The Beverly D.  with Moira in that play. I will be posting to my blog Saturday with the Pick 3 and individual race handicaps.

 

 If I'm playing this race, I want Moira to be beat.  I think Moira, followed by Fev Rover (Ire) will be a heavily bet 1-2.  In my hunt for value, I put Mission of Joy and Neecie Marie in the top spot and Mission of Joy, Neccie Marie, Moria and Fev Rover in the Place position.  This Bet 3-5 OVER 3-5-4-6, a $2 exacta for $12.  

I can't say I love it, but if I want some skin in the game, that's my bet.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!  

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster G1 at Churchill Downs

 

    Welcome Friends to The Turk blog, where The Turk has been writing and ruminating about horse racing since 2008.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.  

    The Turk isn't much of a Triple Crown handicapper.  Truth be told, I'm primarily an older horse, running over a route of grass, type of fella.  I like data.  I like the data that a large field of turf veterans provides me.  That said, I've really refined my dirt thinking to ignoring the early part of the year and concentrating on July-early November, the run up to the Breeders' Cup.  The Stephen Foster  is generally the first dirt race I handicap in a year and this year is no exception.  Before we go too far, who was Stephen Foster, what is his enduring impact on our culture, and what makes the Stephen Foster an important race prospectively? 

    Stephen Foster (1826-1864) was an American songwriter known as the "father of American music." He composed over 200 songs, many of which remain popular, including "Oh! Susanna," "Camptown Races," "My Old Kentucky Home," "Old Folks at Home" (also known as "Swanee River"), and "Beautiful Dreamer." Foster's music became deeply ingrained in American culture, often reflecting themes of the antebellum South.  

    It's highly doubtful from the Turk's perspective that anyone under 40, and few above 40, would still consider Foster the father of American music, but at 58 I can say his songs were some of the first I learned to play and sing along to in school.  

    Foster's work has had a lasting impact on American music and culture. His songs have been performed and recorded by countless artists over the years, keeping his melodies and lyrics alive. However, his legacy is complex and controversial. Many of his songs reflect the racial attitudes and stereotypes of his time, which are now considered offensive (feel free to read the original lyrics to "My old Kentucky Home and you'll understand").  His work is an important part of American musical heritage, but it also serves as a reminder of the nation's complicated history with race and representation. 

    Some, not The Turk,  have done a re-examination of his work and its place in contemporary culture. The Turk believes you should consider historical figures contextually, based on the norms of their era, not against our evolution as a culture, which has righteously moved forward in race relations and attitudes.   Anyways, it's OK to understand Stephen Foster's impact on music, it's also important to understand some of his lyrics were racist, it was a more racist society then, and thank God we don't have racist lyrics anymore, just now someone get rid of Coldplay.  I digress.

    The Stephen Foster is a prestigious Grade I thoroughbred horse race held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Surprisingly, it was only inaugurated in 1982 and named in honor of the beforementioned Stephen Foster and his "My Old Kentucky Home"  which associated with the Kentucky Derby.  If you want to have a beef with Stephen Foster's song, ask why it took 4 years after the race was started before the original lyrics were changed.  

Here are some key points about the history of The Stephen Foster:

   - The race was first run on June 26, 1982, and quickly became a significant event in the American horse racing calendar.

   - Initially, the race was classified as a Grade III event but was upgraded to Grade II status in 1988 and eventually to Grade I status in 2002, reflecting its increasing prestige and the quality of the competing horses.

   - The Stephen Foster is run over a distance of 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs) on the dirt track at Churchill Downs (except last year)

   - It is open to horses aged four years and older and typically attracts top older horses from across the United States (relatively speaking!) 

   - Over the years, the race has been won by several notable horses. Some of the most famous winners include Black Tie Affair (1991), Awesome Again (1998), Victory Gallop (1999), and Curlin (2008), who have also made their mark in other major races. 

OK, enough Turk ramblings, let's get it on!  Let's look at some key videos.

17 May 2024; The Pimlico Special G3; 1 3/16 miles on Fast Dirt at PIM. Pyrenees/1, Kingsbarn/7 went for the exacta.  

3 May 2024; The Alysheba Stakes G2; 1 1/16 miles over sloppy dirt; First Mission/2, Steal Sunshine/8, the Winner and an also ran.  

1 June 2024; The Blame Stakes G3; 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at CD.  Dreamlike/5 for Show.  Blinkers on today.  

20 April 2024; The Ben Ali Stakes G3; 1 3/16 over fast dirt; Kingsbarn/7, Happy American/3.  beaten Place for heavy chalk and also ran.

20 April 2024; The Oaklawn Handicap G2; 1 1/8 over Fast Dirt; Skipylongstocking/9 dominant chalk performance.  

What a field!  Its so rare that I say that these days but it is a very impressive group collected together.  

I could make a case for any of First Mission, Skippylongstocking, Disarm or Kingsbarn to win.  In doing so, I just discounted 4 straight winner Pyrenees who I think is tactically too slow, and mildly Dreamlike, who goes with Blinkers on for Pletcher today (18% Blinkers winner 65 starts).  I only discount Dreamlike because of consistency but I think is very worth a look at fair odds north of 9-1. 

I've rambled so long I'm going to actually keep the handicap very brief.  Looking at the weather, expect a fast track.  You can find track conditions and scratches and changes here.  

First Mission should win this race.  7 of 8 lifetime exacta, 6 of 7 lifetime on fast dirt, 2 of 3 exacta at the distance, back to back dominant wins and on Cox home turf  where he's training very sharp.  I will put him no higher than Place because I want value.  I like Disarm or Dreamlike in a deep stretch run to take the wire with both Skippylongstocking and First Mission covered in Place

As you can see, this is more of a betting strategy than just going with my base handicap.  If you are new to reading me, my chart is what I call the Base Handicap.  It's what should happen.  "Should" is boring and doesn't cover your losses over time.  My fair odds chart identified Disarm as running past his morning line.  I like the late speed and my gamble is a return to form.  

Have fun friends!

Turk out