Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I at Churchill Downs

The Little Turk was campaigning for glory on the soccer field this past weekend. The chance to watch him run free up the wing gave the Big Turk a chance to decompress after handi-blogging nearly 100 races this calendar year. I had several races set aside this week to handicap, but after spending an hour or so on the Stephen Foster field, I could not find the focus to think of any other hoofbeats.

Resetting the pre-race buzz, I looked at this race as a chance for Einstein to once again prove to the racing world that he is the best older horse racing right now in North America. The Pitts trainee doesn't care about the surface at all, he just runs and wins. I also expected a big coming out party for Researcher and Finallymadeit.

The Turk often talks about the best bets being the ones you don't make. I couldn't settle on a bet strategy that I liked so I passed on betting at all. That proved to be a good move, as two horses I considered candidates for Show and the 4th spot on the Superfecta, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy, went right to the wire for the top two spots, while Einstein had a horrible trip and only his class allowed him to find Show.


Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on my ol' Kentucky home dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Watch the trips and tip your hat to the winner.



The race I wanted to handicap this weekend was The Californian at Hollywood Park. Congrats to the former claimer Informed, a horse I would not have picked. The best bets are sometimes the ones we can't make because jr. is playing soccer. Go Fire!

The Nominations Are In (Part 1: Florida): January 24, 2009

The Turk is a slow handicapping machine. I'm in sensory overload on days like today with the Sunshine Millions taking place in Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park. So many races, so many favorite horses running, what to do, where to start?

I'm going to start in Florida because it's in my time zone, and I'm going to handicap Race 8, the Filly and Mare Turf at 1 1/8 miles and Race 10, The Classic, at 1 1/8 on dirt (how novel).

Race 8: The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles, for F&M 4 YO and up, bred in CA or FLA.



I don't have a bet strategy yet, nor do I often share those anyway, as that's not what the Turk is about. I grade em', I put together likely orders of finish, and I make 5 minute to post betting decisions that look to maximize the ROI on my 2 bucks. I'm not a whale, more like a pretty good guppy. I digress.

I think Wild Promises is the class of this race. Without looking at the Morning Line, which Turk shuns, I think that this girl will go off at odds only a bridge jumper would love (or Mama Turk, but again I digress). One of my favorite angles when I do bet is to wait for races with such a money magnet like this and either a. hop the train and hit a low risk, ok reward multi horse bet or b. look for someone to beat the chalk at a big price. Both angles are fun for me, but I like the latter better because most of the time you'll swing for the fences and lose, but every now and then....

I'll be honest I don't see a way to beat Wild Promises yet. I think Zee Zee could. I never hold the poor animals to blame for thier trainers, and while I dislike Mr. Dutrow as a fan, as a dispassionate gambler I'm impressed by the tainer stats. The horse hasn't been a winner, but she's fresh and has worked steady and regular. I like the Albarado/Dutrow combo to perhaps win at >3.5 to 1.

Just a hunch, but Peach Flambe I think will run well and could go off >10-1.

And race 10, The Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up bred in CA or FLA.



I could sing a slightly different tale of handicapper woe to you, but the Turk doesn't sing too well anyhow. I think this race has 5 legitimate horses who could take win or place and 8 of 12 who could argue for show money.

I don't think Delightful Kiss is starting in a good spot, and while I think the gelding is the best horse, I'm going to gamble against him winning. Instead, I'm looking for Atoned or Macho Again as likely winners, although Atoned seems more content to be second best in life. Tagg could have Dry Martini primed for a big race, but I like Hey Byrn as a legitimate longer odds horse and from left field I like Medzendeekron, owner of a 4f :45 and 2/5 and a 7f in 1:24 3/5's to maybe pull a shocker at >12-1. The trainer's turf to dirt is 23% but this horse is very unproven on dirt. I think it's worth a 2 buck flyer.