The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita

Shared Belief  (photo by Shigeki Kikkawa)

Boxing Day racing at Santa Anita is a wonderful, lazy day of horse gambling for the Turk from the snowy East Coast. Today is no exception, as I recharge the batteries over the last two weeks of 2014 and get ready to welcome in 2015 and the treadmill of daily living.  An all graded stakes Pick 3 with races 6-7-8 is featured today, with The Malibu the headliner and race 8, the Grade 1 La Brea and the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile rounding it out.

Today also marks the return of Shared Belief who's been on the shelf since the Breeders' Cup Classic and a race that was over almost as soon as it began for son of Candy Ride.  

Let's get after it!





Bob Baffert sends four horses into the starting gate and the race breaks down fairly simply into if you think Baffert can wear down Shared Belief,or interfere with traffic, and allow a stalker or an off the pace runner to cleanup the mess.  Shared Belief needs no introduction, 7 of 8 lifetime, with 5 of 7 wins on fake dirt, but this colt doesn't mind the dirt at all.  

Chitu, a Henry Hughes son, runs back off a 31-60 day layoff, something Baffert hits 24% of the time.  His last time back was off of a break from a lackluster finish in the Kentucky Derby when he was close to California Chrome at the top of the stretch before fading.  3 of 3 in the Money at Santa Anita.  He should be the pacesetter and has a chance to play "catch me if you can."

Indianapolis and Midnight Hawk will bring speed and tenacity to the race.  Pimpernel will be stalking somewhere just behind these two.

In the non Baffert camp,. Tamarando will be waiting to make one run at the top of the stretch but I see him running out of room and finishing anywhere from 5th to Show. Tamarando has 4 wins, all on fake dirt and is winless in 3 starts on Santa Anita dirt.

In a fairly pedestrian Allowance Level group of also ran's, I liked Diamond Bachelor the best but that is saying very little.

I'll be playing winners only for the Pick 3, singling Shared Belief and looking for some value in the first two races.  If forced to assemble an exotic here I could go one of two routes:  Single Shared Belief OR look to see him beat with some value in the bet.  As the latter is more fun we'll assemble a monopoly money bet of the following:

$0.10 Bet:  2-3-6 OVER 2-3-6-8 OVER 2-3-6-8 OVER 3-5-6-7-10 for $6.20

That's sufficiently interesting enough for me to enjoy and have a punchers chance.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Sunland Derby Grade 3

Today's Sunland Derby offers us a choice between Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert runners, each with two quality starters in the gate to go along with five Also Rans, at least on paper. Isn't that the beauty of handicapping, finding the on paper Also Ran and making a case for him to win or be somewhere on your exotic ticket. Often these lesser thought can sneak onto the ticket from Place to Fifth (yes there is a Super Hi Five Option today) while the more thought of animals take their place in the winners circle. To me, I'm OK with putting on my ticket heavy chalk if I can make a case for longer odds hitting my ticket in the runner up spots. I'm not sure I can do that today but let's take a look.




At first blush I think there will be a sizzling opening quarter time, perhaps :23 even.  Lots of these horses will go fast early, like Garen from the two spot and Tanzanite Cat from the five.  Pletcher's  two, Commissioner and Global Strike, aren't bashful about going fast early but if Commissioner wants to win he'll need to have John V slow him down and come off the pace.  Blinkers on for Commissioner, he has a chance to be a complete bust here as well.  Baffert's two, Midnight Hawk and Chitu leave California for the first time.  Midnight Hawk, with Mike Smith up, is a good but not yet great colt who will contest the pace and will be somewhere in the top four I reckon.  Chitu breaks from the far outside and is making his first start since early February, a rest Baffert wins off of 24% of the time.

Looking for value, I'm considering Global Strike in the win spot.  I think he'll attract the least betting action of the Pletcher/Baffert big four.  His effort on turf tells me he can fire off the pace late while he hasn't shown it on dirt yet.  Castellano is up and Pletcher and he win 32% of the time, a better percentage than what you might think with Pletcher and John Velazquez at 28%.

I'm not sure I'm an investor in this race.  I'm unsure of the pace and how it will be contested, and I don't have a strong enough opinion either way.  I'm afraid I'll just be an observer.

If I were to bet I think I'd follow my base handicap and go with a $1 Trifecta 4-9 OVER 4-7-3-9 OVER 4-7-3-9-6 for $40. I'm not sure I like that but something along those lines.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: A Kentucy Derby Prep Race, The Sham, Grade 3 at Santa Anita

This isn't a blog posting today about a horse race as much as it is about a slumbering, hibernating handicapper coming out of his hole.  As I move closer to 50 years old, a handicapper for the past 30 years, I've taken some breaks from the game in the past.  Sometimes it was because I was 'capped out, too many cards in too many weeks.  This is different: I was bored with the game.  I was frustrated with the closing of Hollywood, the blandness of the handicap division, the Breeders' Cup recurring Santa Anita dates, my local track, Fort Erie, getting screwed by politicians and hacks, deaths of some of my favorite runners, you name it. 

What's changed?  Absolutely nothing, except the great rejuvenating power of a long break, as this is my first handicap since Breeders' Cup weekend.  I love the game, I love the horses, and I enjoy deeply the connections I've made through horse racing that make any dissatisfaction I have with the sport go away.  The thrill of chasing Super High Fives on the biggest days in our sport's calendar is the only drug I indulge in.

Dissatisfaction?  A Kentucky Derby prep race with a six horse field.  Until the sport gets healthier, if it gets healthier, I guess that will have to be sometime the horse fan in me will have to live with.  The gambler in me will remain jaded, not betting for action play, and I'm not sure the value of betting The Sham is, but we'll get to that.  Anyhow, this isn't a blog about much of anything other than the Turk sharing his thoughts on various races and expressing his opinion and prospective as a modern day horse player, armed with great electronics and an old school red pen.  To my readers and friends who I've been writing at since 2008, hello.  To anyone new, I'm the Turk and my boy is the Little Turk.  I'm an Internet handicapping hack who offers bravado free opinions to use or ignore as you will.

Let's get after it.



One thing that is a constant with The Turk is his disdain of 2 YO racing.  I don't care about it and seldom watch it.  The other thing you need to know about The Turk is my disdain for hype.  As much as I enjoy the writing of some very fine turf writers, I do my darnest to not get sucked into who the "next great horse" is stuff.  I'm a paper past performance handicapper whose thesis is everything you need to win at this race is printed on the paper (especially the DRF Formulator's which I'm not paid to pitch).  You'll also notice an absence of advertising in my blog.  I've been offered all sorts of things in the past, from banner ads to live links that lead to products, and while I don't begrudge anyone making money for their efforts, The Turk doesn't blog for any reason other than a release for my thoughts. 

Midnight Hawk, the latest Baffert/Midnight Lute collaboration, looks like the cut and dry chalk for this affair with bullets galore over the surface and a commanding maiden win at Hollywood last month. Blinkers off today. 

If I were to bet this race, which again I'm not sure I will, I have two approaches in mind:  Single Midnight Hawk and bet a value player under him -OR- bet against him, taking him right out of the exacta.  At 8-5 he'll draw serious money to him, so how do you want to play it?  Your call readers. 

The Turk starts with a Base Handicap;  The Base Handicap assigns a letter grade to each entrant and slots the horses into an expected order of finish.  The Turk is an exotic player primarily, so I focus on who is tossed and how many horses I need to consider that can finish in the top four.  The Base Handicap isn't necessarily my betting strategy.  Two different sides of a coin, handicapping and betting.  While Midnight Hawk seems like a legitimate monster to me in this spot as a handicapper, the better in me wants to knock him off.  Have an opinion, an original opinion, and stick to it. 

I can't say I'm thrilled with any other runner but Kristo interests me, maybe not a 2-1.  Sadler's Distorted Humor colt has been off since Halloween.  Work is solid at SA but not eye popping, just steady. Sadler is only 8% off this break. 

I'll Wrap It Up and Ontology, both colts from Tapit, seem very similar;  no dirt wins between either, upper 70's best Beyer, last race wins on fake dirt and turf respectively.  I'm edging Ontology higher as I type and should flip flop them in the chart, but they are both B- so I guess its obvious. 

Top Fortitude is the type of horse I get wrong annually so lets see if I'm consistent. Life is a Joy will need to show me something to get more than a mention.

Have fun friends, I enjoyed my first handicap back.

Turk Out!