Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 2, 2010; The Belmont Park All Grade I Pick Four

A picture from the wonderful Sarah K. Andrew of Haynesfield, winner of the 2010 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the key horse that powered a Turk 1-800-Hammer Iron Cold Lock $2,595 Pick 4 win.

The Turk spent about 2 hours handicapping these four races and then another 90 minutes posting my blog entry. That's the sort of effort I can't put in while I'm sitting in the stands at the track but today, in my home study, I felt it and I played it.

As I say all the time friends The Turk never, never, ever brags. This game is humbling. I consider myself a good handicapper but what does that really mean? At the end of the day, nothing because nobody is right all the time. I hear often that the races are run on dirt (or grass) and not on the paper past performances. While true, the beauty of the Daily Race Form Past Performance (Yes I'm an unpaid and unsolicited spokesperson and my preference is Deluxe Formulators with full trainer stats, split times and works mixed in with race results, and I like the handicapper notes but not the morning lines) is that all the information is there to make informed decisions and good handicaps.

The Turk admits to his closet friends that I don't think you even need to watch the races to handicap well. I went years before Youtube/HRTV/TVG etc where I almost never saw video of the races I handicap and bet. The information is there on paper. Flukes happen all the time, but over the long haul, the best horses at the right point in their form cycle and entered in the right place in the conditions book win.

One piece of information I completely ignore and I encourage my readers to completely ignore is morning lines. Don't let the Turk, morning lines, anyone, tell you who is going to win before you come up with your own base case model. Sometimes I'll look after I bet, sometimes I'll look after I take my handicap final, but it will influence you and influence is the enemy. You're smart friends, you don't need bias. I also skip the hype filled articles chock full with BS quotes from trainers and connections about why their horse will win. The articles are a bias of the writer and they will screw you up. Enjoy the articles after you commit to a handicap, as the writing of turf journalists is very high quality and reflects well on the spirit of Mr. Joe Hirsch on the day we remember him.

What was the key today for The Turk? Losing my last two weeks Pick Fours bets most assuredly: Woodbine Mile day two weeks ago and Gallant Bloom day at Belmont last weekend. I'm competitive and I hold this blog and my handicapping to a high standard. My post race analysis is really a post bet analysis and what my post race analysis has been telling me is that I've been nailing winners but not covering enough. I've been on a heavy "less is more" kick and perhaps I took it too far. I had a $200 budget today and I covered who I thought I needed to and spent $144 dollars and then I placed a $20 bet on one horse to win, the horse I suggested was the horse to beat Blame, Haynesfield. Do I think he's better than Blame, no, but the NY bred loves NY dirt as much as Blame loves Churchill Downs. So that was my secret, I was pissed I lost the past two weekends and resolved to not lose again. If Blame wins, if Paddy O' Prado wins, if Unrivaled Belle wins, I'm talking about a Pick Four win that doesn't justify the betting risk. It takes luck too and luck isn't anywhere to be found on a past performance.

Belmont Park Late Pick Four Races 7-8-9-10



So what really was powering my results: I included Ave (bettor's sixth highest choice) in my bet even though I soured on her after the Beverly D. I mentioned pre-race my respect for Attfield/Castellano and I was rewarded. I got the obvious 8th Race right by covering Life at Ten (bettor's second choice) even though I was concerned the speed duel with Rachel Alexandra may have set her back. I rated Winchester high (second bettor's choice) even though I never expected the bettor's to rate him so high, but again the key was I refused to accept the fact that Blame was unbeatable, I refused to consider Rail Trip, and I believed in Haynesfield and I said so.

$2,680 gross earnings on a bet of $164 dollars. Good Stuff indeed.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Belmont Park October 2, 2010; The All Grade I Pick 4

It's hard to put into words what Joe Hirsch represents to me. You meet so few people in life that you can say that their integrity is without question. You meet so few people in life that did things their way and in the process defined themselves through an unyielding pursuit of perfection within their careers. The greatest tribute to any person is to remember them after they pass away. Elites in society since the dawning of the Enlightened Age built monuments to their greatness while on Earth and their names adorned these physical objects long after their bones turned to dust. Mr. Joe Hirsch isn't remembered because he built a bridge or a building, but because he was revered, honored by the sport that he served. When you wonder what happened to the greatness of horse racing, ask yourself where the dignity and culture of horse racing went to. Ask yourself if dignity can be found at an off track betting parlor. Ask yourself where are the ambassadors to the sport and where its cultural relevance is. Joe's voice has been replaced by legion. The new media has expanded to fill the void left by fading newspaper and magazine coverage. Joe's legacy in print carried on, Joe's legacy of grace, integrity, class and style needs to find its Renaissance. The greatest sport on earth cannot be diminished by the failings of it's human leaders and lets hope that someone will one day have the chance to the next Joe Hirsch instead of toil in virtual anonymity. Let's get it on!

Belmont Park Race 7-10 Late Pick Four



It's wonderful to find weekend after weekend relevant racing at Belmont in the fall and today's edition of Jockey Club Gold Cup Day is no exception. Today is the last prep for many of these horses whose next stop is The Breeders' Cup in early November. The Turk spent most of the week in the greater NY area, and while he would have liked to have stayed for the event in person, he's going to enjoy it plenty with Little Turk from the comfortable surroundings of home, but we are getting pretty excited about our road trip to Louisville for the Breeders' Cup, now just a few short weeks away.

We have an interesting and challenging pick Four in front of us, made more challenging by the incredibly wet weather to hit Elmont in the past few days. Without a very warm sun, the idea that the track or turf will improve to fast or firm seems unrealistic. Make sure your first stop is to See the track conditions, the current weather, and the scratches and changes, as factors beyond the past performances may seriously alter the landscape. I based my handicap on yielding turf and a sloppy main good main track.

In Race 7 we have the Grade I Flower Bowl Invitational . Making arguably the most anticipated arrival from Japan since Casino Drive is Red Desire, grand daughter of Sunday Silence. This 4 YO has beaten and been beaten by some of the best Grade I international talent out there. Getting Lasix for the first time, I'm downgrading just slightly because of the track conditions she'll face, even with wily K. Desormeaux up (not my pick at Belmont all things being even). I'm backing for her first win in 5 starts in 2010 Forever Together. A disappointing last race in Saratoga for Sheppard's runner, I like her on the softer turf and I think Sheppard is a master at preparing for a season's big moment, and the next six week is the season for this Champion. Gomez up. The race features plenty of questionable current form and I like Shared Account, training well since the Diana to be fresh. Trainer Motion is clipping along at 24% off 61-180 day layoffs. I backed Ave (GB) in the Beverly D. and was shocked that she was the post time chalk and she didn't handle the race that well. Has shown an ability to come back strongly in first race back off layoff and has handled soft turf very well in the past. Attfield and Castellano combine for 44% winners on 9 starts. I'd be shocked if Kertanna came up for better than Show. I'm thinking superfecta this race as well and will back three most likely for the P4.

Race 8 is the Grade I Beldame. A six horse field is packed with quality and a bunch of horses who are glad to stop being measured against Rachel Alexandra. Desormeaux, up on Unrivaled Belle, gets my nod here. Trainer Mott at 20% winners on 61-180 day layoffs and the girl has been resting since two Grade I's where she ran a flat effort from the Place spot and couldn't advance and refused to retreat. Came on most people's radar with her stunning defeat of Rachel Alexandra at Churchill Downs, the race where you had to start to worry if the defending Horse of the Year would ever regain her 2009 form. Persistently, the latest Rachel Alexandra slayer, seems to be in a good spot in her form cycle and I like the Phipps Stable runner to give a strong effort today. Life At Ten has four wins in five starts and gave an incredible effort in a bizarre speed duel with the previously oft mentioned Rachel Alexandra in the Personal Ensign. I have no reason to believe that effort took a toll on the 5 YO Malibu Moon mare but that's what I'm saying. Bonnie Blue Flag snuck in under the radar ever so slightly in the Grade I Test and has been training awfully well for Baffert who puts Gomez up. Depending on the price at post time, I may W-P-S this 3 YO Mineshaft daughter.

In Race 9, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic I'm leaning towards Never on Sunday (Fr), another in a long line of Biancone strong turf runners. An eleven horse field, the turf will weigh in on the outcome and as usual, a strong late kick from a pack of horses 1/8 out will be the margin of victory. Paddy O' Prado will get lots of play, rightly so, but facing older horses is never easy and it's the longest race he's run, something is 274 Tomlinson Rating discounts. Those ratings are a minor tool so don't get too hung up on that, I just like others here, like Winchester, trained by turf master craftsman Clement. Should be one hell of a race!

And in the main event, Race 10's Jockey Club Gold Cup, I'm inclined to single Blame but I'm going to take the extra expense and slip in a value horse, which to me Haynesfield is. one win on sloppy dirt and a 460 Tomlinson rating for the 4 YO Speightstown son, toss the Whitney and focus on the Suburban and his 4 wins at Big Sandy, with R. Dominguez up, and a trainer/jock combo clipping away at 32% at BEL. In a real contrarian view, I'm discounting Rail Trip who will have real mud tossed in his 5 Yo face for the first time and instead backing Darley runner Tranquil Manner to bring a good price onto the ticket. I never know what to do with Fly Down.

Last week's post race analysis is up below after the Turk couldn't get to it in a busy week. I had a nice Superfecta win in the first race and ended up slightly ahead on a day when I got little right. Always be honest with yourself about the good work and your bad.

Post Race Analysis of the Late Pick 4 at Belmont September 25, 2010.

October 4th, 2008: BEL Race 9

G1, The Champagne for 2yos. 1 Mile on Main track.

For all the horses, this is a new distance. Some strong Beyer's in this group as well, and 6 of the 10 horses have run and G2 or G1 level.

I have a contrarian position the chalk. I like the 7 horse Ventana, whose ML is 8-1. This Baffert horse won at 6f his last time out and since has had a string of consitant and solid works atBelmont. I'll be looking for real value here on a win bet.

The Morning Line set by the track was contrarian in its own right. Hello Broadway, a half brother of Nobiz Like Showbiz and trained by Barclay Tagg, has the 6th best Beyer in the race, but there is lots to like and little seperating the talent. Hello Braodway in the 4 post won at Saratoga on 30 August at 61/2f where he really dug his heels in and gutted out the victory. He's had a string of solid works at Belmont as well and will go well today. There should be value still for a chalk whose only at 3.5-1. If he's pressed down >4.5-1 I think you have to think hard on him.

The only G1 winner of this bunch is the 3 horse, Vineyard Haven, winner of the Hopeful at Saratoga on 1 September. The knock on this win was that Cribnote was distracted and Munnings stumbled out of the gate. It's empty talk with such a small sample size of races to compare these horses with. The Turk dropped a buck and a half at Equibase getting a race chart and all it really told me was the Hopeful was packed with some quality horses. I'm hoping that money chases this horse down from its ML of 8-1, allowing some opportunies to arise elsewhere. At a minimum, he creates bettor anxiety.

Cribnote follows up that G1 debacle with blinkers on today. He owns the second best Beyer in the race and fought hard on the stretch to finish second in the Hopeful. He's starts the day at 4-1.

Munnings goes from the 10 post and his ML is 6-1. His third place, 75 Beyer in the Hopeful came six weeks after he had a 90 Beyer as the chalk to break his maiden. The horse has had steady works since the Hopeful and will have a new jock today.

That's a much bigger A Group then I'd like. The B Group is narrow:

Breakwater Edison ran in the Hopeful as well, finishing 4th after fading in the last few hops to the wire. He has a new rider today and has worked steady at Belmont for at least two weeks. His best Beyer was 89 in a G2 the race before the Hopeful. His ML is a low 12-1 and he starts in post 1

Brave Victory is a horse that I could argue is the dark chalk. He owns the best Beyer of 93, and before that he had a 91 and a 75 since mid July. Nick Zito is having a tough Belmont meet at 8% wins after 13 races, and he saddles a new jock today as Prado is aboard Vineyard Haven for this trip. This is the horse's first taste of a graded stakes race. Brave Victory breaks from the 8 spot and his ML is 6-1. We'll be watching this for a reasonable value play on a win bet.

Gone Astry goes off from ML 8-1 from the 9 post. He ran a 90 Beyer in front of the Turk at Saratoga on Traver's day and followed it up with an 83 in the G2 Futurity that Charitable Man won. he had a 4f bullet, besting 60 other horses on 30 September. I'm wondering if a fast surface today doesn't propell him back into the 90's?

The line between C and D group is blurry and I'll lump them together. A.P. Cardinal has shown nothing to get me excited. He does have stedy consistant works and coming off his maiden breaking win at 6f with a beyer of 64 on a fast track at Monmouth in mid September. His ML is 20-1 and I agree.

Girolamo is ridden today by Alan Garcia (16%) for Kiran McLaughlin(14%). He finished fourth in a G2 race Charitable Man won on 13 September at Belmont. He's a 10-1 ML and has had a consistant string of mid 80 Beyer's. Not sure if he isn't just a consistant also ran.

So....

I'm looking for $2 for Ventana to win if I get >7-1 (probable)
I'm looking for $2 for Cribnote to win if I get > 6-1 (possible, not likely)
I'm looking for $2 for Vineyard Haven if I get >6-1 (possible)

I'm looking for $2 for Gone Astry or Brave Victory only if both >10-1 (doubtful)

I will bet a 7-3 exacta (Ventana and Vineyard Haven) for $2

I'll keep it to six bucks and hope for the best.

September 27th 2008: BEL Race 6

The Beldame, 1 1/8 main track. F&M 3yo and up.

A five horse race, and I like Ginger Punch, Lemon Drop Mom and Unbridled Belle.

Ginger Punch in the 1 Post is the ML favorite at 4-5, offering no value.
Lemon Drop Mom in the 2 post is ML show at 9-2.
Unbridled Belle is on the outside and is the ML place at 3-1.
I'll watch the odds closely on this race right up to windows closing.

I like Ginger Punch's win percentage. She's drilled consistently at Belmont for three weeks. Same weight/same rider. Consistently three digit Beyer's.

Lemon Drop Mom has worked twice in September including a gaudy46 3/5 4f bullet. She picks up six pounds and her Beyer's are building to 102 range. Will I bet her at 5-1, yes!

Unbridled Belle hasn't one a G1 since last year's Beldame. She's had three workouts at Belmont this month, coming off a show to Ginger Punch and Lemon Drop at the Personal Ensign. She took the lead and couldn't finish those two a month earlier. She changes rider's today. Only sloppy start was at Breeder's Cup and she earned a 93. She's had steady Beyer's in 2008 of about 101. Where do I like her? 5-1 or 6-1.

$2 win on Lemon Drop Mom and $2 to win on Unbridled Belle. I'm saving the last $2 for something better.

Saturday 27 September 2008 Nominations Are In

As I've said friends, the Turk likes to handicap four races a week. No quicker do I say that I have to add an asterisk to that statement. This weekend I'm paying close attention to seven races, and I think I'll bet at least four of them with a bankroll of $6/race.

As this is Thursday night, the following comments are off the cuff and have not been subjected to deep thoughts and my red pen (or several Maker's Mark and Pepsi's).

I have printed the PP for the following:

At Belmont, Saturday 27 September 2008

Race 6: The Beldame, G1. F&M 3yo and up. 1 1/8 main. I love Ginger Punch, but I'll pay attention to the betting odds moments before post and if i get the right price of at least 4-1 or higher on Lemon Drop Mom and5-1 on Unbridled Belle I'll be tempted. I like this race and the horses so I may just be watching...

Race 8: The Vosburgh, G1. 3yo and up. 6F main. No superstars, just some even matched horses running flat out. Should be fun and I look forward to picking apart the numbers. Rockerfeller is coming in with the last race best Beyer of 112 and I think their will be some underlays to be found.

Race 9: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/2 Turf. I like Proudinsky and I'm going to be looking at him as my chalk and trying to make a case against him.

Race 10: The Jockey Gold Cup, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/4 main. Curlin will go off at ugly odds, and while I love the horse, he has to make a statement that he's still the dominant horse this season. I'll be looking to bet against him if I can get good odds with Wanderin' Boy or Mambo in Seattle. Does AP Arrow have a chance, I would think he'll go off at least 8-1 or higher.

...and at Santa Anita

Race 5: The Lady's Secret, G1. F&M, 3yo and up. 1 1/16 main. I'll be watching, not sure if betting. I haven't seen Zenyatta as often as I'd should have. What odds will Hysterical Lady go off at? I'll be watching.

Race 9: The Yellow Ribbon, G1. F&M 3yo and up. 1 1/4 Turf. No particular reason I chose this race, but it looked challenging and I'll spend some time in this PP. The little Turk will spend 20 seconds and I promise he'll show.

Race 10: The Goodwood, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/8 main. I was thrilled by Spirit One at the Arlington Mile and I've been teased and thrown away many a ticket on Tiago. This one looks like fun.