Showing posts with label Pyro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pyro. Show all posts

Saturday, November 28, 2009

The Nomination Is In: November 28, 2009; The Cigar Mile Grade I at Aqueduct

With the green yoke is Bribon (Fr), The Turk's chalk in today's Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. In this Vanessa Ng photo Bribon battles and ultimately beats Smooth Air at the Met Mile, the highlight so far in the 6 YO geldings career. Trainer Ribaudo brings the Mark of Esteem (Ire) son up against a small but strong field today for a stiff test. Let's go!

Race 9 Aqueduct; The Cigar Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on Dirt; A Handicap for 3 YOs and Up (Google Docs Spreadsheet attached)



Scratches and Changes you'll find here. The weather can be seen here.

Bribon (Fr) has rested and trained since a Woodbine Mile effort that produced a running line "in touch, all out drive". His 99 BSF was nowhere near good enough to beat Ventura on that day but this is a quality grade stakes miler. Capable of a mid 100+ BSF. Ran a :59 flat 5 furlong work at Belmont that past week. Looking for tenth win in thirty starts. It will take his best effort and I'll be hedging down on 1/2 of my tickets to Place.

Kodiak Kowboy will provide a very stiff challenge to Bribon and is more then capable of winning this race. Coming in off a Grade I win in the slop at Belmont at 6 furlongs. Was pointed to Breeders' Cup but had some mucus in his lungs that needed to be cleaned out. 13 day break in works from 2 November to 15 November, with a sharp 6 furlongs in 1:12 3/5ths on that day. Looking for third Grade I win in 2009 and makes twenty third career start and is looking for win eleven.

Pyro, the supremely talented 4 YO son of Pulpit is the career money earnings leader in this race, but an erratic career it has been, making seventeenth start and looking for win number six and his first at 1 Mile. He comes in off a rather pointless trip to the Breeders' Cup where he was forced to again prove he doesn't like fake dirt. Has Migliore up today for Trainer bin Suroor.

Coupled to Pyro is his stable mate, Vineyared Haven, another Godolphin runner that coulda, shoulda been better by this point in his career. A nice 6f Grade I win in the slop at Laurel in late October and before that a DQ in the King Bishop, also in the slop, in fact hasn't raced on fast dirt since a Grade I win at Belmont in October 2008 beating Munnings and Cribnote, two that could have spiced this event up today.

So what are we to do with this? A small field with two potential winners coupled together and one toss, Vacation)that offers value without any real prospect of cashing.

I'm thinking low risk, medium reward bet strategy. Driven by Success comes in off a sloppy win at 6f and most likely will set a blistering pace as he did in the Met Mile. I'll take a position of betting him to Show and then mixing and matching a few Win and Place candidates in straight Trifecta betting. We'll have some fun and keep the exposure low.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Saturday, November 7, 2009

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup "Dirt" Mile Grade I

The fully stretched out and magnificent Mastercraftsman is pictured to the left, today's overwhelming Morning Line and Turk Chalk in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. I don't rant too much and I prefer to leave that to others that do it better then The Turk, but the idea that these races are called "Dirt" I find even more ridiculous then the renamed "Ladies Classic". It's not dirt and it does not feel like dirt to dirt horses, the surface of choice in American racing for 140 odd years. It doesn't matter what my anecdotal opinion of polytrack is, its irrelevant what I think about that, but it isn't irrelevant that we refer to these races as being "dirt" races. Why not call it the Poly Mile or the Synthetic Mile, or the Turk's favorite "The Fake Dirt that may or may not be safer for horses Mile". It ain't Dirt. OK, I digress.


Race 7 at Santa Anita post Time 5:12 ET; The Breeders' Cup Fake Dirt Mile Grade I; 1 Mile on a surface that is anything but Dirt for 3 YOs and Up.


Mastercraftsman (Ire) comes to the United States and is most likely happy to notr see a horse named See the Stars on the PP with him for this outing. A Grade I winner this year and a 1 length loser to See the Stars in August and a well beaten Show in September. Trainer O'Brien has had incredible success in Europe but is cold in North America, with an 0-11 first time North American win percentage, and 0-9 in Graded Stakes in North America in the past year. 8 of 10 lifetime in the money on turf and one win, his last race out, on poly. I don't think the field is overpowering and I expect he will win handily.

I really struggled to identify the second best horse in this race and I finally settled on Bullsbay. We give the Euro's credit for losing to See the Stars and we should give Bullsbay credit for losing to Rachel Alexandra and running gamely with Macho Again the last few times out. A flawed horse to be sure, and poly results aren't earth shattering, but we will hang our base handicap with him here and hedge him down on many tickets.

Mr. Sidney is a stretch in this spot as well, but I like his work on Turf, with 5 wins in 9 tries and I think he's run well on yielding turf as well. A late break off the pace I expect could propel him into one of the top four spots.

Furthest Land comes in off a big effort at 1 1/8 on poly for a Grade II win, posting a 106 BSF in the process. Nothing else in his PP makes you think he was capable of that. trainer Maker has some really WOW stats himself, 29% winners with horses on a 2nd effort off 45 day layoff, 30% winners on fake dirt, 29% winners on 31-60 day layoffs, 30% won last start and 29% of route races. One big red flag; 8% of Graded Stakes on only 24 starts. Ugh, a big fish swimming mostly in shallow water, and I mean no disrespect to a fine horseman. 5 wins in 2009 for the son of Smart Strike.

Midshipman has the potential to win this race and at the right number on the tote board I'll take a $4 chance on him. I'd have him higher but why? 1 start in 2009 as a 3 YO, an N3X on dirt with a sub 100 BSF, in fact he's never broken 100. This Unbridled's Song son coulda, shoulda been something special and it just hasn't happened since Baffert beat a weak group of 2 YOs with him last year to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. So much promise, how huge would this win be to his legacy? Huge. Gomez up for Godolphin. It's up to the horse who has been spotted drifting erracticly during work. Possible equipment change to blinkers.

Neko Bay and Chocolate Candy are poly warriors but both have yet to do much on the big stage. We haven't even mentioned which Pyro will show up today.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The Nomination Is In: July 29, 2009; The James Marvin $80,000; 7f on dirt on Opening Day at Saratoga

The image to the left is 102 years old, the Sartaoga Race Track. One of the enduring and endearing things to the Turk about horse racing is the tradition, the grandeur, and the pure pleasure of being at a place like Saratoga.

In 1986, this Turk found himself living about 5 blocks away from the racetrack on a street called Jumel Place. I had been indoctrinated into the sport of horse racing by people like my mother and father, and most importantly, my Aunt Rose. As I found myself living near the track, and working odd hours, I found myself venturing to the track regularly. At first it was just to be with my Skiddy-Kiddy, but then it took hold. The Sleeper Awakened. Like a drug in got inside me and its never let go. I love Saratoga Race Track for many reasons but none more importantly then the symbol of what horse racing was and what horse racing can be again. I digress.

The Turk looked at today's card and was drawn to the kind of horses and the the type of race he enjoys: 3 YO and up racing on dirt around one turn. Yeah! The icing on the top is some of the talent I get to see in this one.

July 29th, 2009 Race 3: The James Marvin Stakes $80,000; 7 furlongs on dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I went back and forth, albeit briefly, as to which horse to put on top. I like the current form of Riley Tucker and I love his string of 100+ BSF. i don't like the fact he doesn't seem to want to win as much as he likes finishing back. The 4 YO son of Harlan's Holiday and the Baffert Trainee is more then capable of winning, but capable and doing is the Grand Canyon of all sports.

Finallymadeit is a 15-1 ML and yes I'm sticking him on top. First time trainer isn't something on keen on, and Trainer Ritvo only hits 9% of these, but I like the work and the class this horse has been keeping, as well as the drop in distance today. He could wire this one.

The Turk's more about the Super these days then anything else. 10 Cent Supers are in fashion here as well. Pyro, glorious Pyro, has the look of a rock star and now he sports the Royal Blue of Godolphin. It's his first race since the Breeder's Cup (cough) Dirt Mile. While he's training well, I'll drop him in the top four for sheer respect of his abilities and his class level compared to his fellow hoof beaters. I'm looking for Bold Start with R. Albarado up to come late and find a place on the ticket. For alternatives, Cassoulet or Lord Snowdon at long odds could hit the 4 spot.

It's a nice field of horses on opening day at the Spa.

One person who won't be there this year is my cousin, The Murph. I was in the Murph's wedding, as he is married to my beautiful and favorite cousin Marge, and it was my true pleasure to talk horses with that man every year at our family reunions. The Murph got sick in the middle of the meet last year and passed away before the Breeder's Cup. Life can be sudden, swift and merciless. It was a tragic loss and I honor him today with my appearance on opening day. Rest in Peace Murph.