The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
As I got myself excited for the Belmont Stakes, I watched the video of 2007 Belmont Stakes Winner Rags to Riches several times and skipped the 2008 video of Big Brown's belly flop. Let's hope for an exciting and safe trip for all the horses today.
After handicapping several Belmont Stakes Day races, I finally turned my attention to the main event and I realized I didn't need to do much study. Right or wrong, for better or worse, these horses are a know quantity. What thier current form is, sometimes that's the hard thing to nail down, but what the are capable of I think is crystal clear. They do run on sandy NYS dirt instead of paper, so the horse that brings guts and heart, along with ability and current form, should win this test of champions.
Race 11 BEL: The Belmont Stakes Grade I: 1 1/2 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
At this stage, I think you have to let your base handicap ride. I'm playing with 20 bucks of the newest member of the Turk clan, a lady we'll refer to as The Appleton Turk, so we're just going to run the traps.
I like The Trifecta of Mine That Bird, Dunkirk and Charitable Man, and I like them in any order. I will go Super Hunting as well and I'll build a few 10 cent boxed tickets together with Flying Private, Summer Bird, Miner's Escape, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff in the four hole.
It's been a great time blogging the Triple Crown prep races and then the races themselves. Enjoy. Turk out!
There comes a time when you are in school that you just can't study anymore for a big test. I use to be impressed by the kids who didn't cram the night before; they worked hard all semester, knew the information, and got a good night of relaxing sleep.
After handicapping every major prep race on these 3 YOs since last October, I'm at a point where I'm past the need to study and I just have to finish the test, and a tough test it is. If this was the Backwater Derby, as a handicapper, I'd walk away. You have a 20 horse field running a distance not a single one of them has ever tried to run. It's the Kentucky Derby though, the biggest stage of the year for the sport I love, and while my bettors mind is telling me to walk away, hey it's the Derby. Let's have some fun, pick some horses, and see how we do. To fans of passion and good guys finishing first, that horse and jock pictured of course is the winner of the 133rd Kentucky Derby, Street Sense, with Mr. Calvin Bo-Rail up.
Race 11 Churchill Downs: The Kentucky Derby Grade I: 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
This one is a race you must watch the weather and the tote board on. There are only two wet dirt winners in this race, Friesen Fire and Desert Party. I'm giving the edge to the LA Derby winner, Friesen Fire. As much as I like Friesen Fire, the betting angle has to be about fashioning tickets out of your handicap and hoping for the best. I Want Revenge and Pioneerof The Nile will get some tickets with me on top, and then I have a 4 horse group (15, 12,7 and 19) that I will use to make up exactas and even a few stright Trifectas, and 10 cent Supers. I'm going keep doing the same things that have made me sucessful over the past few months; Work my handicap, establish my bet limit before I bet, fashion my tickets sans emotion, and pray.
Speaking of praying, Little Turk makes his First Communion today. The Turk is sacrificing his Derby Day rituals for the love of my favorite little handicapper. Little Turk likes two horses, I Want Revenge and Musket Man. . Mrs. Turk took longer then her usual 20 seconds to pick a horse, and she has chosen Hold Me Back.
The Turk didn't have any expectations with the Dubai races except to enjoy the races themselves as well as gain experience handicapping foreign horses with scant information on the PPs. The Florida Derby on the other hand, I had high expectations to not only handicap well, but to possibly find a betting situation that would result in a big payout. Well one out of two ain't bad.
Race 10 GulfStream Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
With two scratches, the field got a bit too small, and the money a bit too big on what the betting public sensed were the only three horses worthy of betting. They were right, but as a bettor, you're not happy when everyone else has the same opinion as you. The Trifecta paid $6.00. I did some quick math a few minutes before post and thought the Trifecta would be no more the $10.00, and with a minimum payout expectation threshold of $30.00 that I shoot for, I passed. I had two bets ready to go, and one of them was the straight trifecta, but again, a bettor like me who likes to eeck out good returns on small risk just didn't see the point.
But I'm ahead of myself. The race itself was semi-dramatic for about a furlong. Quality Road hit the stretch and the only one ready to meet him was Dunkirk. The two fine colts, the best two colts in this race, traded the for several hops before Quality Road dug in gamely and won by a length and a quarter. A solid handicapper that I know suggested to me prerace that Theregoesjojo's trainer had the horse leave something in the tank during the running of the Fountain of Youth. While I do think the horse came out of that race fresh, I also think the reality is Theregoesjojo is a quality Grade III winner, an threat for Grade II wins, and not a true Grade I horse. I'll get hate mail, but that's the way I see it. The 401 Triple Crown nominees are down to about 10 real Grade I studs and a group of 30 or so Grade II's and then some serious parity competing for Allowance Races and Grade III's. No crime in being what you are, Class comes not from what was paid for the animal, but what level the horse can consistantly be competitive at.
A solid, solid win that propels Quality Road to the top of my Derby favorites and I only hope that Trainer Jerkens finds a way to keep him sharp, but I don't think I need to worry about the horse knowledge in that man's DNA.
I feel like I want the hours of my life back handicapping Dubai. I was pretty unsucessful with the races I blogged, and I did OK with some other races on the card, but blogger ethics prevent me from bragging about races I don't previously announce my intentions with. I've got the video, including a great Japanese race call of the Dubai Duty Free. The video on both race shows a rather non compelling result, not to take anything away from either winner. I was very impressed by Well Armed. I've always liked him, but perhaps never enough to pick him over his contempories like the late Go Between.
Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai Duty Free Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on Turf for 4 YO and Up.
Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai World Cup Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 4 YO and Up.
The stakes are high at today's Florida Derby. There is $750,000 of graded stakes money up for grab, and the last opportunity for some of these colts to earn a way into the Kentucky Derby. Five of the nine starters are Triple Crown nominated, but the one that gets my chalk is currently un-nominated, Quality Road. I guess I'm a bit surprised by the size of the field, and the lack of true Grade I competitors, but we can't handicap who should be here, only who walks into that paddock dreaming of hay, carrots and the cheers.
Race 10 Gulfsteam Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.
I am doing my best to ignore the hype machine that surrounds Dunkirk. Perhaps the 3.7 million dollar Unbridled's Song colt deserves the accolades, but being old fashioned I like to see a horse beat quality graded stakes competition before I'm willing to scrawl chalk all over its hip. Will that mean I won't be part of clamoring masses who have already coronated this horse "super"? Perhaps, but then again, I'm generally out of step with society anyhow, why start now to conform.
With that rant issued, I am left no where else to turn but Quality Road. It's not like I'm the pretty girl settling for the bald introverted guy (a remark which the Turk resembles), Quality Road earned a 113 BSF in his win in the Fountain of Youth. He's had a running duel with Theregoesjojo, and I think he's better, and he likes to be pushed, and all that means I think he'll be the best today. Is this a stone cold Turkish lock? Far from it, but this is horse racing, and the dirt (or that paraffin like stuff that maybe is safer maybe isn't) is the crucible that determines winners from pretenders. To the sharp eyed amongst you, that is Barbaro, resplendant Barbaro winning the Florida Derby in 2006. Now that was a horse!
As I got myself excited for the Belmont Stakes, I watched the video of 2007 Belmont Stakes Winner Rags to Riches several times and skipped the 2008 video of Big Brown's belly flop. Let's hope for an exciting and safe trip for all the horses today.
