The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Horses. Handicapping and Hijinks. That has been the subtitle of this blog for nine years. While I focus quite a bit on handicapping, I am first and foremost a fan of the horses and the people that campaign them.
Fox Hill Farms, Mr. Porter and family, have given this horse racing fan much to cheer about. Eight Belles. Old Fashioned. Kodiak Kowboy. Harve De Grace. Hard Spun.
Songbird.
15 Starts. 13 Wins. 2 terribly close Place finishes. A Breeders' Cup Champion. Nine Grade 1 victories. In an era where the word great has been watered down, she was great. A great champion.
I wanted to remember her as the great Champion she was, and words aren't how I'll remember her but it's through the video of her game and determined efforts that she will live on for me.
Enjoy retirement big girl, you earned it.
Saratoga; 26 August 2017; The Personal Ensign Stakes G1
Delaware Park 15 July 2017; The Delaware Handicap G1
Belmont Park; 10 June 2017; The Ogden Phipps Stakes G1
Santa Anita; 4 November 2016; The Breeders' Cup Distaff G1
Parx Racing; 24 September 2016; The Cotillion Stakes G1
Saratoga; 20 August 2016; The Alabama Stakes G1
Saratoga; 24 July 2016; CCA Oaks G1
Santa Anita; 18 June 2016; Summertime Oaks G2
Santa Anita; 9 April 2016; The Santa Anita Oaks G1
Santa Anita; 5 March 2016; The Santa Ysabel Stakes G3
Santa Anita; 6 February 2016; The Las Virgenes Stakes G2
Keeneland; 31 October 2015; Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies G1
Santa Anita; 26 September 2015; The Chandelier Stakes G1
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. That very handsome colt in Shadwell Stable silks is Takaful, not my top pick but an intriguing runner in today's H. Allen Jerkens, part of this first of several blog posts today related to Saratoga.
Travers Day at Saratoga is one of the great betting days of the year for Graded Stakes fans like me. I know, I lose street cred by proclaiming myself a fan first, degenerate second, but I don't really give a s**t about street cred as a handicapper or bettor. I care about the quality of my work and my handicapping, and I care about adding improvements to my bet construction and overall approach to racetrack investing.
I'm approaching, I'm reaching, I've already arrived at a new place in my life: North of 50, set in my ways, my Little Turk on the doorstep of adulthood and I'm taking stock of the things I love to do. I'm still clinging to my love of the horses and the races. I've really enjoyed writing this blog for the sheer pleasure of it. I'd like to think that people will return to blogs again after the pre-Twitter heyday, but I'm in it for the long haul and I'm in it for me and the people who enjoy these free thoughts.
I'm going to break Travers Day into bite sized nuggets. The first post of the day is the Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 that includes The Personal Ensign, The Ballerina and the newly re minted Kings Bishop, the H. Allen Jerkens, all Grade 1s. I'm usually not down with name changes, but how can you be against putting Mr. Jerkens name on anything?
I'm also unveiling a new chart look this week. it's something I use as I prep to bet as post time approaches to help me identify under and overlays. I've taken the Morning Line into Percentage. Why is the morning Line >100%? Track Takeout and Breakage (losses during rounding, retained by track). I use the POST RACE version of my charts in real time to update post time odds and make my vertical bets (intra race).
Anyway, these three races are pretty chalky. With Race 7-8 at 7F Pace and out of the gate speed plays a huge role and Race 6 with a five horse field and a huge but vulnerable favorite.
Race 6 starts a Pick 3 (6-7-8). Race 7 starts a P3 (7-8-9) as well as a Pick 6 (7-8-9-10-11-12) and Race 8 starts a P3 (8-9-10 and a $1MM P4 8-9-10-11).
I don't know yet what I'm doing. I'm sure it will mirror what you see here but I may try and trim Race 8 down to 4 contenders and recover my value horses in Race 6. This is the mix and match part of gambling that I use these spreadsheets to help me with as post time approaches. I did it with red pen and paper for years but two computer monitors, a tablet a phone and I am becoming much more efficient.
Welcome Friends to the Post Race recap edition of The Turk and the Little Turk.
The Turk sat on the sidelines today in the Race 7-8-9 Pick 3 at Delaware Park I handicapped earlier in the day. Too many scratches and no real belief that anything other than chalk in at least two of the legs would win. What did I pass on? The $2 Pick 3 paid $21.40. The race track investor must be choosy and I wasn't thrilled with the fields or the quality running today. There is nothing wrong with passing and The Turk has always rejected this idea of needing some action. I know, boring old stodgy Turk, well I'd rather be old (bald) and stodgy with a positive ROI than a riverboat gambler.
When I looked at the selections before race 7, I fully expected Eighty Three would win as a heavy chalk, I thought Frostmourne or Master Plan would win Race 8 and Songbird would win in Race 9. I saw no value and passed.
Race 7
Race 8
Race 9
I'm really baffled why supposed race fans bash horses. Songbird just won her 13th race in 14 lifetime starts. I'm happy for Mr. Rick Porter and the very proud organization, Fox Hill Farms.
I don't know where Songbird stacks up in the greatest Filly ever list and quite frankly, it doesn't matter. She's not racing Zenyatta, Rachael Alexandra, Blind Luck, Royal Delta, Flower Bowl, Bayakoa, Ruffian or Our Mims, she's racing whoever shows up. I'm happy for her connections today, and she exits ready to battle the naysayers another day.
Songbird at Santa Anita: Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire
Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk Blog, a handicapping and horse racing blog established in 2008 on the premise of offering no BS handicapping to people who never asked for it. It's free and it stacks up well with anything you will pay for.
Mr Rick Porter and Fox Hill Farms are the type of horse campaigners this sport needs more of. A true sportsman in every sense of the word, Mr, Porter has brought to this game some of The Turk's favorite runners over the past 10+ years: Harve de Grace, Hard Spun, Eight Belles, Rockport Harbor, Old Fashioned, Kodiak Kowboy and now Songbird.
How many of you rank 2011's Delaware Handicap as one of the greatest races of this decade so far:
We wish Mr. Porter the best as his long battle with cancer continues. How many losses of true horsemen can this sport survive? That's what the Turk worries about, but that's a deeper question for bloggers more worthy than I.
Today's edition of the Delaware Handicap doesn't contain a Blind Luck or even a Life at Ten (The Life at TenBreeders' Cup Distaff debacle to me is still one of the great horse racing black eyes of the past decade).
I'm going to think horizontally today with a Pick 3. I can take the contrarian position that the enormous favorite Songbird will be beaten or I can single her and try and find value in the first two legs.
Race 7 is a $50,000 Stakes Race, The Hockessin, a one turn 6 furlong affair for 3 YOs and Up on the dirt. Eighty Three is 8 of 9 on fast dirt in the money and 8 of 9 in the money at this distance. Last raced April 13, Trainer David Jocobsen is only 9% off the 61-180 day break. Expect the 6 YO gelded son of Harlan's Holiday out of Life's a Dance to be chalk. The two I have my eye on are Never Gone South and Debt Ceiling.
Never Gone South enters off a 6f driving win in late June and is 6 of 7 in the money on fast dirt while Trainer Cathal Lynch is 23% stakes winner over past year on 39 tries. Debt Ceiling, a recent claim of Kieth Nations has been working really well over past month and makes 2017 debut here. Nations is 18% with new claims, 12% off 180 Day layoff. Expect good price. I'm not that high on some that will be high on tote board: Always Sunshine and Chief Lion. You have to pick your poison sometimes.
In Race 8 we have the The Kent, a Grade 3 1 1/8 mile route over grass for 3 YOs. Trainer Christophe Clement, a 19% Turf winner on 634 starts in past year, brings in Frostmourne, the Grade 2 Penn Mile winner last time out. This colt is rapidly improving. Master Plan is an $850,000 March 16 OBS purchase trained by Todd Pletcher. Classy Twirling Candy from Sage Mist (Henry Hughes). Winner of the Delaware Park $50K Stanton, his second race back after a well beaten Show toThunder Snow in UAE Derby and a very well beaten hand ride in his first effort back, the G3 Peter Pan in May. Will be bet heavily and he's really a coin toss which way he goes.
I like The Tortoise: Two bullets coming into the race and a 1 Mile Allowance win on from turf here at Delaware last time out. Lunaire shouldn't be ignored but again, you can't cover everyone. A Malibu Moon colt, conditioned by Trainer Thomas Albertrani with Mike Smith up. Adonis Creed beaten by Master Plan in the Stanton is a Brilliant Speed colt. Brilliant Speed died yesterday in a freak lightning strike at Three Chimneys Farm. Rest in Peace Brilliant Speed!
In Race 9, the Delaware Handicap it's Songbird's to lose. Trainer Kieth Nation's has Martini Glass training well and enters off a game Place in a 100K stakes. Weep No More goes with blinkers today for Trainer George Arnold. Winless since a Grade 1 Ashland win in 2016 from last at the top of the stretch to first at the wire. Field size is the same and the pace maybe the same. Songbird is better than this.
So what to do? First of all, have fun and do your own handicapping. When it comes to bet construction, you have several ways to approach this.
I think there are 5 contenders in Race 7, 4 Contenders in Race 8 and One Contender in Race 9. Top to bottom in base handicap is how I count those out.
A $2 PICK THREE with 5 Horses OVER 4 Horses OVER Single would cost $40. That's not value and isn't a bet worth betting.
Two basic approaches, maybe three:
Single Songbird and look for value in first two legs
Look for Songbird upset, but if that happens you MUST win first two legs
Keep bet cost <$20 bucks and enjoy the action.
For low cost betting on this three race sequence I've settled on either a $16 bet that envisions Songbird's Defeat or an $18 that gives me three chances in the first two legs and Songbird singled.
I'll be watching the toteboard and won't be that emotional about which 2 or 3 I cover in Race 7 and 8. I'll use my base handicap and the tote board to find value.
The Alabama Stakes is typically a highlight race for me at Saratoga. I've had conflicts with this weekend over the past few years and the last time I was able to be there for it, my son and his grandfather joined me in 2009 to see the absolutely gorgeous Careless Jewel win in a romp.
It looked like the sort of performance that could catapult the filly to super stardom, but it just wasn't to be and the second best filly of 2009 behind Rachel Alexandra was retired soon after.
Songbird, today's stupid-crazy heavy chalk favorite has skyrocketed to super heights already, winning nine straight and absolutely dominating all comers. Today's focus will be on figuring out if she can be beaten and by who, as well as just embracing the heavy chalk as a single and seeing who can bring value into the Place and Show spots on an exotic ticket.
Three Turk Generations at the Spa: Travers Stakes Day 2007
Today's race is not named after a person or a famous horse, but instead for the home state of William Cottrill, a former Confederate officer. The race track was trying to remember the efforts of Mr. Cottrill who is credited with helping to revive horse racing in the North following the American Civil War. Mr. Cottrill owned a farm near Lexington, Kentucky and bred a Kentucky Derby winner, 1884's Buchanan (Hale 2001).
Horse racing remembers. A few years back I was deeply disturbed when many of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park meet's races were renamed by the Stronach Group. I still don't like it and one of the most appealing things about horse racing to me besides the horses themselves is the tradition. When I look at this picture of my father and son, together at the 2007 Travers Stakes, it means something to me, it's my roots, horse racing roots, the thing that ties one generation of fans to the next. Imagine the hacks at the NYRA one day just deciding to rename The Alabama Stakes. I get heart palps just thinking about that. I'm sorry, I digress, and I just want to end this thought with this: Horse Racing Remembers.
I've been babbling a bit too much already, lets get after this race with a bit of video handicapping and then a peek at the fractions these horses are capable of. Let's get after it!
24 July2016 CCA Oaks G1 SAR 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
16 July 2016 Indiana Oaks G2 IND; 1 1/16 Miles; Fast Dirt
20 May 2016 Black Eyed Susan G2; PIM; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
9 April 2016 Ashland G1; KEE; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
Just some simply dazzling performances highlight in these few videos. I could post all of Songbirds and what you see is complete consistency. The Weep No More back to front finish at KEE in the Ashland was one of the memorable races of 2016 already, but nothing really from her since.
The chart below shows a small sample size of races at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 of a mile. Surprisingly Flora Dora ran a similar speed in an OC $62K at BEL in early Julyas compared to Songbird'sSummer Oaks G2.
At 1 1/8 miles there was a shocking disparity between Songbird, with the next closest horse Flora Dora finishing 8 lengths behind based on 1/5 of a second per length. Songbird is often slowed in the final 1/16 and that skews the data as this girl has tactical speed and Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith knows how to use it.
Songbird. I'm not sure I need to say much else. She won at SAR, she's 9-0 lifetime with $2.4 MM of earnings already, a 5 Time Grade 1 winner, a Breeders' Cup Champ, she's the complete package. If it means anything, she has the lowest Tomlinson Number at the distance with a 269. I expect her to soar.
Family Tree, with hot jock F. Geroux up for trainer Wayne Catalano, comes in off two impressive outings in the mid west, in the Iowa Oaks in June and the Indiana Oaks 2 weeks later in July. While the class in those races isn't terribly high, she was impressive.
Going for Broke is making a big jump in class for trainer Chad Brown who places Ortiz up. That combo has struck for 30% wins in 90 tries at SAR this meet.
Go Maggie Go is on a layoff since June 11, something trainer Romans only wins 9% of the time. A :58 4/5ths 5f bullet with 76 others in the workout tab on 12 August shows she's fit. Black Eyed Susan winner wasn't visually impressive and ran a better, but out of the money, Kentucky Oaks a few weeks earlier.
Flora Dora I think is too low in my base handicap. Blinkers On, this First Dude daughter has two very fast bullets at SAR this month in morning work, I'm expected a focused and possibly career best effort to get in the money. I'll be covering her from Place to 4th.
Weep No More had alot of speed to run at in KEE. She'll be running at alot of speed here too. I'm not expecting a repeat performance. No Place or Show finishes in her career yet. Feast or famine and she's in the deep water today.
I'm tossing Dark Nile at my own peril.
I'm leaning towards two very different bets:
Primary: Songbird singled with 5-3-4-7-2 covered from Place to 4th in some combination I haven't fully thought through yet. I don't think I'll cover that many horses in Place but a 6 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 $2 Trifecta will cost $40.
Secondary/Hedge Bet: Exactas with Songbird in Place and the 5-3-4-7 in WIN spot. $2 bet for $8.
I'd like to end this post by again saying that I think Arlington Race Track is a wonderfully run, fan friendly place that I highly recommend to my horse racing friends. They make it easy to buy tickets on their website and the track experience in the club seating is fantastic. I wish Illinois racing would get their act together and attract better talent with better purses, but you cannot beat Million Preview and Million Day at that track. NYRA could learn a few things about race track experience from the team at Arlington.
