The Nomination Is In: The Charles Town Classic G2

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our eleventh year of blogging and celebrating 33 years of horse playing, if that's something to be celebrated (I know it is by my rabid audience of readers.)

I'd like to thank The Thorofan, and the Handicapper's Corner, for this opportunity to share my thoughts with you today on the Good Friday.

This is the sort of race I hear a lot of fellow horse players starting to call this year's edition of the upcoming Kentucky Derby, a bettors race.  There is no heavy favorite, there are multiple horses a handicapper can make a case for, and there is a growing feeling of a chaotic mutuel end result.  Perhaps that's the case here but that also assumes the big three don't factor in the top two if you are an exacta player.  At worst, the lowest of the favorite odds is finishing second and long odds win the race.  The big three by the morning line have winning odds that add up to 60.5% and if you put the top four Morning Line odds in you are at 77%.

While it's a subject for another day, you should be focused on who can win and how does the overall public view the odds of the horse you identified could win.  In doing this analysis you are creating a fair odds line for yourself.  You'll notice the odds on the Morning Line's don't add up to 100% and the reason for that is pesky little things like takeout (major) and a bunch of other small deducts from your betting dollar like rounding and breakage (minor).  Ignore that.  I'll actually take a minute to tell you that if you are gambling solely on morning line odds you should really consider reading a good book and learning to handicap yourself because most track odds makers tend to introduce biases into their work, and they have an obligation to tell you the most likely winning odds, not who is an overlay.

Overlay: An underestimated horse by the betting public.

Underlay: An overestimated horse by the betting public and what you get when you read and consume most horse racing fluff pieces.

I'm jumping ahead, but quite frankly this discussion to me is more interesting the the actual race and maybe helpful to my readers who are more casual and social bettors.  Look at my chart below.

Diamond King was a 20% ML winner and I have him at 18.19%.  That is first signal of open betting race, a ML and Fair Line odds of 4-1 or worse.

Look at Unbridled Jean:  6.25% ML, a 15-1 shot, yet the Turk Fair Line has him at 14.29% or 6-1.  Forget if I'm right or wrong, that is the Overlay you are looking for.  To get better as a handicapper you have to practice.  To get better as a bettor you have to trust your handicapping and act on when you identify an Overlay.  I can't tell you how many times I'd identify Overlays but lacked the courage to bet them or even put them in a chart like this because of fear of comments from other handicappers or on social media.  Think about it like this:  I gave Unbridled Jean odds to not finish first 85.71%.  When he doesn't win tomorrow was I dumb for betting him?  Another subject for another day but if you are betting a safe choice, with short odds in the Win Spot race after race, you need a new hobby. 

Underlays?  Again this race isn't great for the examples because of the relatively small bid-ask between the ML and the Fair Lines, but Discreet Lover, a horse and trainer I absolutely love as a fan, by my handicap is the biggest underlay, and with that pronouncement,"... let's announce to the winners circle....Discreet Lover."

Let this bald handicapping idiot savant shut up for a moment and lets get after the race!



My handicap and thinking are influenced by the fact I expect the track to still be wet at race time tomorrow.  I know most of the rains will be gone by post time but I think alot will fall and I have to consider what I think the track will be like based on what I know now so this rubbish insightful commentary can be published before lunch on Friday, 30 hours before the race.  You don't have that burden, so use the information you have effectively, such as track conditions and scratches and changes. 

I like Diamond King, son of Quality Road, buts he nothing more than light chalk. I could run down the whole field but I'm not sure of the value quite frankly.  in bullet points:

• Diamond King: 4 YO with 5 wins in 11 career starts.  Low 400 Tomlinson. last race win as chalk. Servis and Castellano 0-4 over past year together.  Tepid.
• Unbridled Jean:  7 YO loses class war but solid career with 25 of 29 races in the money.  6 of 7 in the money over wet dirt. good early speed, strong final kick, will need tactical speed breaking from 10 post. 
• War Story:  Easy Choice, Safe bet. 16 of 32 in the money with $2.6 MM in earnings from a $5,000 stud fee. I think he gets bet hard and goes to gate 2-1 or 3-2. 2 wins in 3 wet races. 
• Mongolian Groom: California Shipper.  Trainer Genbat no stakes wins in past year.  Slow Early, good late speed.  Breaking along rail. Eh. 
• Rally Cry: Last win April 2017. Race best 417 Tomlinson but one Show wet start. Good overall speed early and slow.  Pletcher an amazing 33% winner off +180 day layoff as hasn't gone since Woodward.  Was my chalk, still could win, one of those horses that should be better than his record, 6 YO and 14 career starts.  

 I don't know what i'm going to do yet, but I'll take my top five and assemble win and exacta bets.  If forced to choose now I'm leaning towards something simple like this:

Unbridled Jean 10 Over  3-9-1-4 a $2 Exacta for $8.  Odds of winning low,  odds of paying well if it does win, high.  That's how the long game is played.  My real inclination is to walk away but you only need to win a few of these low risk $8 bets in a year to boost your overall ROI. 

Have fun with it friends!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Stakes G1 at Saratoga

Seeking the Soul: Coady Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today reading the $750 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.

This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007.  Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate.  This is going to be an excellent betting race.  There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.

You'll find Scratches and Changes here.  You'll find the weather here, and by the looks of it we should have a dry, fast dirt track.

Let's get after it!




It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today.  I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win.  Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart.

Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles  Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018



Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.



Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts.  One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt.

Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite.  In his last ten races he's one three times:  an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017.  The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park.  Woof!  He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131.  Here he was in good form at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.



Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well.  An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.

Irap: WSVX FM

The nearly $3.0 Million dollar earning Gunnevera will be coming late, but will he have enough tactical speed early on to be well positioned.  That's something the handicapper must consider.  I'm betting against him to win and I'm not even sure I'll cover him to Place (and yes, that should all but assure he does win!)

I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti.    I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all).

Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.


West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.



If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.

Razorback Handicap G3:  1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed




Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty.  Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me.

Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out.  While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles.  5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.




While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta.

In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1  at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has  big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year.  I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.



Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence.  Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K. 





Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs.  Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).



I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line.  Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.

 I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw.  I tossed Imperative as I  think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes.  I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts.  I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.

So what to do with all this?

I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets.  I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward.  My early thoughts are:

$1 Exacta:  10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7  $15

That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge Over Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)

That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea.  This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap.  Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.


Thanks for reading, Turk Out!