The Nomination Is In: The $100K Laurel Park Turf Cup

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

Wide Open!  That is what I would say to describe today's handicapping challenge, the $100,000 Laurel Park Turf Cup, which thanks to the track announcer, confirmed to me that the race is indeed on the turf today.  Twitter is a powerful tool for a handicapper who is trying to collect information.  I understand budgets are tight at the tracks, but a good social media poster who can respond to tweets is incredibly helpful.  Through 4 races while I write this the Turf is listed as good. 

Wide Open!  Let's get after it.





Renown (GB) enters off a show finish (Place through DQ) in the $100K John's Call Stakes at SAR in mid August.



Bottled up along the rail after breaking from 5 hole, Renown (GB) darted through a hole late showing as his  running line said "...good courage". 11 of 20 In the Money over grass with 8 wins, a 50% winner at this distance in 12 starts, distance (1/8 cut), class (same), and weight (-1) all pretty consistent with last time out for conditioner Elizabeth Voss who is 49% in the money and a 19% winner in 2018 over 37 starts in these conditions.

Hello Don Julio  enters off 1 3/8 $80K OC at SAR where he finished Place by a neck after leading most of the way.   9 of 16 in the money over grass, no wins in only one try at the distance for the 6 YO gelded son of Afleet Alex. Class, Distance and Weight (+2) all step ups.

Postulation is down over past two races but is going with Michael Matz today for first time (29% in 7 tries with first timers). Training sharply, the 6 Yo gelded son of Harlan's Holiday is going at same distance, with similar class and weight (+1), 8 Win-Places in 19 career starts. 

Tizzarunner has 2 wins in 3 Laurel Park starts and breaks from far outside post today.  Winless in 2018, class dropped from Grade 2 to 3 to $97K and now $100K stakes.  Last time out at Ellis Park  he finished well beaten in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Preview. 

Final Copy and Vintage Matters break 1 and 2 on the inside respectively.  Final Copy has no wins in 5 tries at the distance, drops in Class from Grade 2 Nijinsky at Woodbine at similar distance but picking up 3 pounds.  Over good turf he ran evenly throughout. Ontario bred Malibu Moon 4 YO trained by Roger Attfield. 

Vintage Matters hasn't won in 2 years and 2 months, only has 1 win in 11 turf tries and is 1 of 11 lifetime as well and is 6-1 Morning line incredibly.  Wide Open!

Not In Charge has nice late turn of foot and comes in with a 1 1/2 mile win overfirm turf on this course. Scuba , a 7 YO gelded son of Tapit, makes his 5th career turf start and is looking for win 2. 

I'm thinking that any of the field can PLACE but only a few logical winners, led by Renown and Hello Don Julio.  I'll be building exacta tickets after looking at the Will Pay's just before they head into the gate.

Have fun friends.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Late Pick 4 at Kentucky Downs

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. 

The Turk loves turf racing, but I was very late to the game with Kentucky Downs.  Coming on the heels of summer meets at Saratoga and Del Mar, my attention normally turns to Presque Isle, Belmont and Santa Anita as I start to think about my biggest gambling weekend of every year, Breeders' Cup.  It wasn't until two years ago that I embraced this quirky track and it's quirky meet that is both race fan friendly, bettor friendly and incredibly forward thinking in comparison to most of what I see from horse racing "thinkers". 

I've spent the better part of 3 hours handicapping the last four races of the card today, a pick four sequence that kicks off at 5:18 ET.  The scratches and changes can be found here and my picks represent the best knowledge of scratches at around 11:00 ET.  It should be dry today.


I'm going to watch the races before finalizing my P4 selections.  I've provided my possible covers in my chart and I'll be using my base handicaps to fashion my vertical bets. 

Have fun with this card friends.  Will focus a bit more on each race in the Post Race review.

Turk Out!

Post Race Bet Review and Video: Arlington Million Day

Permian-Ire  with Buick Up

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Little Turk and I are back after a beautiful weekend in Chicago. 

What a difference a year makes:  Last year we broiled under the sun and this year, while not cool, was far from warm.  Either way, no rain, firm turf and a great time.  

I can never say enough about the Arlington International Racecourse.  They treat you good, the facility is well maintained, and the fan experience for me never fails.  

The only downer for me was the death of Permian and the injury to William Buick.  It literally happened the first hop after the finish line and Little Turk and I saw it happen in real time.  The horse appeared to me to have suffered a terrible break and I told the Little Turk I didn't think he was savable and he wasn't.  Bless his heart, he remembers the dead and he immediately thought of when we saw Turk favorite George Washington break down in the Breeders' Cup Classic on a sloppy track in Monmouth.  Buick's father is quoted as saying William is in good spirits and was set to fly home on the Sunday after the race (Fuller) .  With Scottish (Ire) scratching in the Arlington Million, his day was over.  Now lets just hope we see him up again soon.  

I felt bad for the connections, as they were visibly upset on the track, looking for a divot or anything that may have led to the break and the fall.  I commend the track for getting the temporary barriers up quickly.  I personally don't care for how quickly we move on as a sport when one of the runners breakdowns like that.  I understand the horse player attitude, I witnessed it in my Twitter feed the lack of "dwelling" on it, the desire to forget it quickly, the harassing of anyone that showed empathy.  It's just not me.  It bothered me on Saturday and it bothers me the number of deaths at Saratoga this year. Writers I know and respect constantly downplay it, write it off to coincidence, cite the varied ways the breakdowns happened.  Like I said, I hold onto these deaths longer and I don't have any answers, just an observation that the horse racing media doesn't like to talk about the breakdowns more often, doesn't aid the fan in the process of grief anywhere near as much as they could. 

It's hard to call a day where we risked $476 dollars and grossed $882 in returns unsuccessful, but I was a mess most of the day on my verticals while my horizontal P3's were very good.  Silly me not playing the P4's, which would have made me low four figures, but I left that money on the table.  I said I was a mess, mostly on the bet construction side of things.  In fairness, the handicapping wasn't bad.

Anyway, I've got the charts update with Post Race Info and the bet results are below that.  At least it wasn't that chalky.  

Race 7-Chalk $1.50-1

Race 8- 8th on Tote  $27-1

Race 9- 5th on Tote $5.50-1

Race 10-5th on Tote $5.90 -1

Race 11-2nd on Tote $4.90-1

Race 12- 7th on Tote $12.20-1

Turk Out!

References

Fuller, Harriett (14 Aug 2017): Arlington Fall: Buick Recovering in Hospital following Fall From Permian.  The Sun. Web.  Recovered from https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horseracing/4231799/william-buick-on-his-way-to-hospital-after-fall-from-permian-in-the-secretariat-stakes-at-arlington/