The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Lake Placid and the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga

Spa Giveaway-Alabama Day 2008

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 9th year and 11th month of providing handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it.  It is, however free, and it as I might add, positive ROI over a long period of time.  

Why does the Turk blog?  I guess the easiest answer is he likes too.  Some people like crosswords, some watch Jeopardy, some online porn.  Me, I like my work very much and blogging is an extension of my work.  I analyze data and I develop good money strategy, which is exactly what I do for a living.  

I was out (albeit briefly) at Del Mar last week, and next Saturday I'll be in Saratoga for Travers Day. I haven't attend a Travers since 2007, when the Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense avoided the Spa Curse, and also the day Hard Spun became a Grade 1 winner in the King's Bishop.    I stopped going because I felt priced out.  I'm not super cost conscious, but Stub-Hubbed tickets in the clubhouse have gotten very pricey for the Travers and instead I started coming for either Alabama or Woodward Stakes day.  I purchased tickets in the hope of possibly seeing Justify, but I'm good with whomever shows up and quite frankly, I'm getting excited to see Wonder Gadot take on the colts.  I've enjoyed alot of Alabama Days and the hat pictured above was a bit of swag the Spa gave away in 2008.   I admit tho, I'm getting rain fatigue this meet and I'm dreading working hard on a multi race handicap only to see races pulled from turf or multiple scratches.  I'm going to hunker down and assume that the track is at least sloppy and sealed and the turf is soft.  The weather, is going to be wet.  You'll find the real Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes for NYRA/Saratoga here.  

My handicapping plan was to develop a Pick Three Strategy for Race 8-9-10, the G2 Lake Placid on Turf, The Alabama and a $25,000 1 Mile Turf Claimer that I fear will either be cancelled or shifted to the main track after I spend quality time on it.   Let's get after it!

Video Review for the G2 Lake Placid:  1 1/8 Miles on Mellon Turf.

G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational: 1 1/4 Miles Firm BEL turf 

G3 Lake George: 1 1/16 on SAR outer (Mellon) Turf



G3 Wonder Again Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Bel inner Turf



G2 Appalachian:  1 Mile over yielding turf at KEE




Penn Oaks $200K; 1 Mile on Firm Turf




And the video review for The Alabama 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt

G1 CCA Oaks 1 1/8 Miles on fast Dirt



Indiana Oaks G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt





Delaware Oaks G3:  1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt



The Mother Goose G2: 1 1/16 Miles on fast BEL dirt.




What to make of this?




Instead of rambling about this one, I think I'm just going to let my base handicaps and fair lines speak for themselves.  These races were handicapped assuming soft turf and sloppy and sealed dirt. 

Midnight Bisou will most likely be singled on my Pick 3.  I'll be assembling value exactas on both races as I think there are some very good possibilities for both races. Hopefully the field sizes don't change.

I'll be back tomorrow with Race 10 once I get a feel for if the race will be run, by who and on what surface.

Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Alabama Stakes Grade 1 at SAR

2009 Alabama Stakes Winner Careless Jewel; Photo Budmeister 26.2

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog that focuses primarily on handicapping.  I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan and their Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you.

The Alabama Stakes is typically a highlight race for me at Saratoga.  I've had conflicts with this weekend over the past few years and the last time I was able to be there for it, my son and his grandfather joined me in 2009 to see the absolutely gorgeous Careless Jewel win in a romp.
It looked like the sort of performance that could catapult the filly to super stardom, but it just wasn't to be and the second best filly of 2009 behind Rachel Alexandra was retired soon after.

Songbird, today's stupid-crazy heavy chalk favorite has skyrocketed to super heights already, winning nine straight and absolutely dominating all comers. Today's focus will be on figuring out if she can be beaten and by who, as well as just embracing the heavy chalk as a single and seeing who can bring value into the Place and Show spots on an exotic ticket.

Three Turk Generations at the Spa: Travers Stakes Day 2007

Today's race is not named after a person or a famous horse, but instead for the home state of William Cottrill, a former Confederate officer.   The race track was trying to remember the efforts of Mr. Cottrill who is credited with helping to revive horse racing in the North following the American Civil War.  Mr. Cottrill owned a farm near Lexington, Kentucky and bred a Kentucky Derby winner, 1884's Buchanan (Hale 2001).

Horse racing remembers.  A few years back I was deeply disturbed when many of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park meet's races were renamed by the Stronach Group.  I still don't like it and one of the most appealing things about horse racing to me besides the horses themselves is the tradition.  When I look at this picture of my father and son, together at the 2007 Travers Stakes, it means something to me, it's my roots, horse racing roots, the thing that ties one generation of fans to the next.  Imagine the hacks at the NYRA one day just deciding to rename The Alabama Stakes. I get heart palps just thinking about that.  I'm sorry, I digress, and I just want to end this thought with this: Horse Racing Remembers.

I've been babbling a bit too much already, lets get after this race with a bit of video handicapping and then a peek at the fractions these horses are capable of. Let's get after it!


24 July2016 CCA Oaks G1 SAR  1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt




16 July 2016 Indiana Oaks G2 IND; 1 1/16 Miles; Fast Dirt




20 May 2016 Black Eyed Susan G2; PIM; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt



9 April 2016 Ashland G1; KEE; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt



Just some simply dazzling performances highlight in these few videos.  I could post all of Songbirds and what you see is complete consistency.  The Weep No More back to front finish at KEE in the Ashland was one of the memorable races of 2016 already, but nothing really from her since.

The chart below shows a small sample size of races at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 of a mile.  Surprisingly Flora Dora ran a similar speed in an OC $62K at BEL in early Julyas compared to Songbird's Summer Oaks G2.

At 1 1/8 miles there was a shocking disparity between Songbird, with the next closest horse Flora Dora finishing 8 lengths behind based on 1/5 of a second per length. Songbird is often slowed in the final 1/16 and that skews the data as this girl has tactical speed and Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith knows how to use it.







Songbird.  I'm not sure I need to say much else.  She won at SAR, she's 9-0 lifetime with $2.4 MM of earnings already, a 5 Time Grade 1 winner, a Breeders' Cup Champ, she's the complete package.  If it means anything, she has the lowest Tomlinson Number at the distance with a 269.  I expect her to soar.

Family Tree, with hot jock F. Geroux up for trainer Wayne Catalano, comes in off two impressive outings in the mid west, in the Iowa Oaks in June and the Indiana Oaks 2 weeks later in July.   While the class in those races isn't terribly high, she was impressive.

Going for Broke is making a big jump in class for trainer Chad Brown who places Ortiz up.  That combo has struck for 30% wins in 90 tries at SAR this meet.

Go Maggie Go is on a layoff since June 11, something trainer Romans only wins 9% of the time.   A :58 4/5ths 5f bullet with 76 others in the workout tab on 12 August shows she's fit.  Black Eyed Susan winner wasn't visually impressive and ran a better, but out of the money, Kentucky Oaks a few weeks earlier.

Flora Dora I think is too low in my base handicap.  Blinkers On, this First Dude daughter has two very fast bullets at SAR this month in morning work, I'm expected a focused and possibly career best effort to get in the money.  I'll be covering her from Place to 4th.

Weep No More had alot of speed to run at in KEE.  She'll be running at alot of speed here too.  I'm not expecting a repeat performance.  No Place or Show finishes in her career yet.  Feast or famine and she's in the deep water today.

I'm tossing Dark Nile at my own peril.

I'm leaning towards two very different bets:

Primary:  Songbird singled with 5-3-4-7-2 covered from Place to 4th in some combination I haven't fully thought through yet.  I don't think I'll cover that many horses in Place but a 6 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 $2 Trifecta will cost $40.

Secondary/Hedge Bet:  Exactas with Songbird in Place and the 5-3-4-7 in WIN spot.  $2 bet for $8.

I'd like to end this post by again saying that I think Arlington Race Track is a wonderfully run, fan friendly place that I highly recommend to my horse racing friends.  They make it easy to buy tickets on their website and the track experience in the club seating is fantastic. I wish Illinois racing would get their act together and attract better talent with better purses, but you cannot beat Million Preview and Million Day at that track.  NYRA could learn a few things about race track experience from the team at Arlington.

2016 Arlington Millions

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!



Works Cited

Hale, Ron (2001). "William Cottrill Stakes?" About.com/Horse Racing. http://horseracing.about.com/library/blalabama.htm Retrieved 17 August 2016.

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Alabama and Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks

Stopchargingmaria

The Turk hasn't blogged much over the past two months but has handicapped an awful lot of Saratoga and Del Mar races this summer.  I've been torn about how to devote my time, handicapping or blogging.  After an intensive handicapping/gambling period that began with a very lucrative Triple Crown season,  I feel like I'm ready to take a breather and just enjoy the last few weeks of the summer racing season until I start my Breeders' Cup preparations in mid September.

Alabama Weekend always holds special significance to me, as I've attended many an Alabama and attended with my father and son just a few years ago in a memorable three generation Turk boys day at the races. I am, and have been, an enormous fan and handicapping devotee of Arlington Millions day, but I've not handicapped Arlington much this year and I made the decision that those races are just too difficult for me to jump into cold.  What is in my wheelhouse right now is Saratoga and Del Mar, two tracks I've struggled at traditionally but where I'm doing well in these respective meets.

Anyway, I'm done with serious horseplaying until Breeders' Cup weekend, which means I'll be blogging more often to keep my mind fresh.  Let's get after it!



Let's start with The Alabama, Grade 1 at Saratoga.




Hard not to like Stopchargingmaria; 7 of 9 lifetime with 5 wins, one Grade 1 win, two Grade 2's, 3 of 3 in the money at SAR including the impressive CCA Oaks.  A candidate to single in my exotics.

Catch My Drift and Size both make SAR debuts today;  Catch My Drift, trained by Chad Brown, is a 2 for 2 Pioneerof the Nile daughter with Joe Bravo up.  Brown/Bravo combine for 39% wins on 23 starts.

 Size, trained by Bill Mott, rallied to win the Iowa Oaks in late June and she's been training sharply at SAR for a few weeks now.

Unbridled Forever gave Stopchargingmaria chase in CCA Oaks, and was second best of the bunch, but I'm not expecting much better today.  Miss Besilu posts bullets regularly but is winless since a February Optional Claimer.

Got Lucky and Fortune Pearl would not be enormous surprises to hit the exotic tickets.  I'm tossing Flay's America and Joint Return at my own peril.

The track should be fast and the weather good.

At Del Mar, we get the Grade 1 1 1/8 turf Del Mar Oaks.  Cutting back is Sea Queen for Christophe Clement with Bejarano up.  5 of 6 in the money on Turf with 3 wins, 2 of 2 at this distance, and trying Del Mar for the first time.  How she'll handle the firmness is my only question.  I'm got Sea Queen on equal footing with Tepin and Istanford. Tepin is winless on Turf, winless at the distance, winless at Del Mar but was a willing Place in the 1 mile San Clement Handicap in mid July here, won by Istanford.  Istanford has 5 wins in 8 turf starts but none at the distance and may start to fade after a mile.



Casse's other runner after Tepin is My Conquestadory; A talented 2 YO, I think this girl could be ready to step forward.

Tom Proctor's Famous Alice is coming back after freshening since late June.  His other runner Diversity Harbor is fresh, just not that interesting.  A couple of first North American/first time Lasix runners enter the gate with D'Amato's Odisseia (Ire) and Maibaby (Ire).  Eh, I'm skeptical of both.

What I do with these races I'm still not sure;  I think I'll stick close to these base handicaps and develop some Tri's or Super's and see if a bet is worth making based on tote board values.

I've enjoyed sharing my thoughts today, which is how I always feel after coming back after a break.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Race 8-9-10 Pick 3 at Saratoga including the Alabama and Sword Dancer

Royal Delta-Alabama Stakes Winner

I've thrown the white towel in this year.  I'm not handicapping the Arlington Millions Day card.  I play Arlington quite a bit, and I do very well both on the turf and the fake dirt, but I have had some of my most horrid, absolute abysmal handicaps over the past few years on Millions Day.  I've embarrassed the Turk brand, and worse, I soiled The Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, with wretched handicapping.  I am taking a break from that sort of emotional baggage this year as I think it clouds my ability to handicap dispassionately.  That said, I choose Saratoga, a track I don't play especially well, and I was a bit underwhelmed and disappointed to find a a six horse Alabama Stakes, made worse by the early scratch already of Tell a Great Story. 

I'm mostly a race fan today, as the cards I've spent time studying don't thrill the degenerate gambler side of me, but for a bit of thrill the Pick 3 seems like a low risk way to feel a bit of engagement with today's races.  I handicapped the Sword Dancer for the nice folks at the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, and I'm going to bookend that race with an Optional Claimer and the Alabama.  I think I'll single Princess of Sylmar unless Fiftyshadesofhay is something much better than the 2-1 morning line dropped on her. 

Anyways, let's get after this!





As a betting race, the 8th is a neat race; big field, nice quality, and a dividing line between the talent and the filler.  Royal Blessing and Master Wesley seem like the best of the bunch, 4 YO's, good barns, and they still have a career ahead of them if they step forward.  I'm five deep on my Pick 3 for this race but just lazy.  Ampersand and Kathy's Kitchen I'd put above Lead Singer but Lead Singer represents some value if Trainer John Kimmel and Maragh, up, can build on the 3 YO's last race and bullet work. 

In the Sword Dancer, which I blogged in depth just yesterday, I think I only look to Big Blue Kitten and Boisterous. 

Have fun race fans on a full day of top flight racing action. 

More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery.  Animal people understand this. From Facebook today

"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"

Thank you from the Turk in advance

Turk Out!