The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
In this blog posted is video on all graded stakes at Saratoga Springs from the opening of the Meet through August 13.
I've played Saratoga lightly since the beginning of the meet. This upcoming Saturday's Alabama Stakes and Lake Placid will be feature races of this blog and the P3's surrounding these races will be my primary play.
If you find this helpful, leave me a comment.
Turk Out!
Turf
Lake George Stakes G3 8.5F 3YO F 21 July
Diana Stakes G1 9f 3YO and Up 22 July
Bowling Green G2 11F 4 YO and Up 29 July
Coronation Cup Stakes 5.5 F 3 YO 31 July
National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame G2 1 1/16 Miles 3 YOs 4 Aug
The Waya G3 1 1/2 Miles F&M 3YO and Up 5 August
Fourstar Dave Handicap G1 1 Mile 3 YO
Dirt
Coaching Club American Oaks G1 9F 3 YO Fillies 23 July
Honorable Miss H. G2 6F 3 Yo and Up F/M 26 July
John Morrissey Stakes 6.5F 3 Yo and Up F/M
Curlin Stakes 9F 3 YO
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes H. G1 6f 3 YO& Up 29 July
The fear of the unknown track, the bane of every public handicapper who is writing well in advance of post time in order to publish. Yesterday's handicap's were all based on a wet track, sloppy and sealed, and it ended up being listed as Fast. All in all the handicaps weren't too bad.
As I said pre-race, I was focused on the Pick 3, race 8-9-10. The Pick 3 paid $273 on a $2 bet powered by a 14-1 Thundering Sky/1 taking the wire. While I didn't bet, I most likely would not have covered the 1 horse so no harm/no foul.
Why didn't I play it? Summer friends, summer happens, and when you live in snow country, everybody plans everything in a short 12 week period. Yesterday was the Turk Family reunion and that picture is of my father, Papa Turk, as well as Little (not so Little anymore) Turk and me. The family has some serious horse players in it.
This week for me is all about prepping for the Arlington Million Day, which Little Turk and I will be attending. As much as I love Saratoga and the track experience, to me Arlington is my favorite course and it's just too bad it doesn't get an opportunity to host more big stakes action. The track is operated first class and the amenities I care about (lots of windows, fast service, easy to reach and visit paddock, parking, and rest rooms) are really well done.
The Test Grade 1
The Whitney Grade 1
These weren't that complicated. I would have easily had been alive into Race 10. With the track listed as Fast I have no doubt I would have singled Gun Runner as I suggested pre-race. That would have allowed me to cover about 4 horses in Race 10. I liked Thundering Sky cutting back from 1 1/16 Miles as I had handicapped the Dr. James Penny Memorialat Parx and noted he ran a strong opening 7F. Would I have picked the 4 YO Sky Mesa? Who knows.
As I sat down to start studying the Saratoga Late Pick 3 that includes The Test G1, The Whitney G1 and De La Rose 100K, I became enthralled with the Test field And decided this race was deserving of its own blog post.
Why am I enthralled? It's a deep, experienced field: 64 career starts/32 Career wins for the field of 10. There appears to be opportunity to get a very good horse, like for example, Vertical Oak, at a nice price of $9-$12-1.
The field also has a mixture of horses that have run in slop and sealed surfaces, which I'm afraid tomorrow's Spa may turn into. I like the handicapping challenge and the betting opportunity presented here In this Grade 1 Three Year Old Fillies race. This isn't what I would say "my wheelhouse", but let's dive into it as I don't want to cover any more than I need to for my planned betting activity itself, the Race 8-10 Pick Three. Watch the track conditions and Scratches and Changes. The weather is bad headed towards Saratoga.
Before I go to far, I'd like to thank the good people at Feedspot for naming The Turk and the Little Turk one of the Top 60 Horse Racing Blogs, checking us in at 59. It was an honor, deserved or not, and nice recognition in an era where few comment or even read full blogs anymore.
The Victory Ride G3: BEL 6.5f Fast Dirt 9 July
A romp by 4+ lengths for American Gal. Vertical Oak is running nice in the last 1/16th to get up for Place.
Summertime Oaks G2 SA 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt 17 June
Faypien had a nice trip, but the re rally she makes to hold for Win was really solid.
Jersey Girl 150K BEL 6f Fast Dirt 11 June Chalon cruising.
The chalk Vertical Oak pulled up with bad start. Chalon had a soft quarter pace :23.62, and :23.78 soft half, Chalon just dropped the hammer to 1 min 10 sec 6/10ths.
Miss Preakness G3 PIM 6F Fast Dirt 19 May
Vertical Oak in peak form.
Gold Finch PrM $67K 6F Sloppy/Sealed Dirt 29 April
Vertical Oak in a sloppy/sealed Prairie Meadows setting career high Beyer of 94
Race 3 Maiden $75K GP 6F Fast Dirt 11 Jan
Divine Miss Grey breaking her Maiden at Gulfstream. 5 wins in 7 starts in 2017
I could make a case for four horses winning this race. It's not often I have four horses in my possible win spot so when I feel good about four I can either cover all four in my Pick 3 or I can take the best two or three prices and take my chances.
Faybien ships in from Santa Anita for Baffert. I suspect she will be the chalk, the Ghostzapper oozes class. Never raced a wet surface although Tomlinson is at my Mendoza line of 400. 2 wins in 2 starts at the distance. Training exceptionally well including a :59 1/5th 5F bullet. Baffert's numbers are absolutely gaudy: 25% Route/Sprint (cutting back from 1 1/16), 32% 31-60 day layoff, 41% won last start, 30% dirt wins, 34% graded stakes in 135 starts and 32% winner with Bejarano Up.
American Gal left Baffert's barn and is trained by Simon Callaghan. I like Callaghan and Baffert. Callaghan, who had Abel Tasman, lost the talented Quality Road filly and had no qualms calling out a deep pocketed syndicate, "...China Horse Club purchased a 50 percent interest in Abel Tasman from breeder and co-owner Clearsky Farms after her victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Starlet in December. It was intended that she carry China Horse Club colors in the Santa Ysabel. Prior to race day, Callaghan said he confirmed with the silks room that the colors were available.
However, Callaghan said, when Talamo came to the walking ring, he was wearing the Clearsky colors. Talamo was asked to return to the room and change into the China Horse Club silks, but the silks could not be located. Talamo wore the Clearsky silks.
“They moved her purely because of the silks,” Callaghan said. “It’s a pretty heartless thing to do. China Horse Club brings a lot of money into the game, but they bring no class.”
A phone call Thursday to China Horse Club representative Mick Flanagan seeking comment was disconnected during conversation. Flanagan did not return a phone message seeking comment.
The move was a major blow to Callaghan, who developed Abel Tasman from an unraced 2-year-old into one of the leading members of her division. The filly, by Quality Road, has won three of five starts and is considered a leading prospect for the Kentucky Oaks.
Baffert, who trains American Anthem for an ownership group that includes China Horse Club, said he got the call Wednesday.
“I was surprised,” Baffert said. “They said they were going to move her no matter what, and they asked me" (Free 2017).
Drama.
Your Love is a lightly raced Chad Brown Flatter filly. 2 starts/2 wins, stepping up from N1X territory today.
I really like Vertical Oak. She's had a really interesting 2017 with early success, some misfortune in the Jersey Girl, a well beaten but still running Victory Ride. It's depressing her price and I dig that. She's 4 wins in 10 starts and don't sleep on that speed.
I'll take my chances not covering Chalon, but you can't cover them all. She showed exceptional speed in the Jersey Girl so depending on her price I may include her. Sorry to be less than definitive, I'm just not sure if I'm even building a horizontal bet on the race.
I'm not sure what to make of Cursor. She's looked good in sprints and her price will be big. Speed, and a lack of, is the issue.
I like the Divine Park filly Divine Miss Grey. 5 wins in 9 career starts. Speed, and a lack of, is the issue part deux.
I think I'll cover the four and maybe assemble some prices into exacta and win bets as well.
Have fun with it friends. I'll be back to handicap the Whitney, the De La Rose and complete my Pick 3.
Hard Spun, 2007 winner of the King's Bishop, and the first Grade 1 race attended by The Little Turk and a day filled with memories like the Kentucky Derby Winner, Street Sense, having to have his best race ever to hold off a game long shot, Grasshopper. The Spa is a great place on just about anyday, but when 40,000 people are screaming as the field turns for home, it's electric. Today, with great weather and big fields, the racing should be truly memorable. Little Turk and I couldn't make it to the Spa today as we had commitments back home, but we'll be enjoying a few days at the track this coming week and we'll have to enjoy today's racing vicariously through our friends in attendance.
50 Cent Pick Fours are on the menu. I plan on playing the Pick 4 horizontally and then each individual race vertically. I'm going to let the Base Handicap speak for itself right now as I have more work to do to prepare for the bet itself.
Let's get after it!
The King's Bishop is pack with quantity with a few quality runners mixed in. The Travers has quality and quantity.
Whichever way you go with your betting, have fun.
More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery. Animal people understand this. Timothy is back home but the vet bills are seriously big. Please help if you can.
"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"
The list is legion: I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Paynter, Union Rags, Hansen. I'm not as disappointed about this year's remaining three year old races as I am thinking about the dearth of good handicap division horses, a cupboard bare now and not getting much of an infusion of talent next year.
I won't prattle on about my opinion on why so many good three year olds have been retired, it's not really important or informed. When you have a problem it's easy to sit around and bemoan who isn't in the room with you to solve it. I find it's always better to take stock in who is there when times are tough, those who have stuck with you and are presently in the here and now. I refuse to allow myself to loose one bit of sleep about who isn't racing anymore: As long as they retired I am happy for them and in three years I'll look for their children and be excited, as excited as I am now when I see Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron (Pest in Peace), Invasor and Bernardini, Flower Alley and Pleasantly Perfect to name just a few.
In the same vein, a handicapper has to have a short memory when it comes to the failures. The Pick 5 on Arlington Million day was for the Turk, a flaming failure. I misjudged the fine line between good and firm turf and overvalued domestic runners and undervalued grade 2 European horses. The handicaps were failures but I limited my betting action and the losses were not of the Greek Tragedy variety. i do listen to what I preach; Pick easy targets. 5 turf races filled with unknown quantities is not an easy target.
Today's not much easier, but as a racing fan, I'm compelled to pay attention and I'll take a run at some vertical and horizontal action on Saratoga's signature day, Travers Day. I haven't been to the Spa on a Travers Day since 2007 when Street Sense held off Grasshopper and Hard Spun won his elusive Grade 1. I wait every year to be wildly inspired to see a particular three year old and I'm still waiting.
The late pick four offers an interesting collection of challenges: a turf race, two dirt sprints and then the classic distance dirt. The names of most of the contestants are easily recognized by even casual fans and there isn't any sort of European past performances to deal with. By all accounts the dirt will be fast and the turf firm. I think the weather is a non event. It's always good to eliminate tricky variables. One challenge the past performances offer are the runners exiting the Jim Dandy ran on a fast, sloppy strip. We'll factor that in a bit.
Let's just get after it!
I'm going to let my base handicaps speak for themselves right now. My P4 base handicap is a $135 bet that I won't make: it doesn't offer much value. I'll slim down and single one race, possibly Contested in the Test as well as slip back to only four covered in the Travers, sneaking Steelcase in for value. I'm going to play the individual races hard, focusing on exactas/tri's and possibly Supers. Again, there are much easier targets than Saratoga, especially turf races and classic distance events, but we'll have some fun and try to keep the bet risk reasonable.
The injury/retiree that bothers me more than the three year olds is Winter Memories. I cannot find the words to describe my love for that horse and her loss has left me a bit numb and I'm feeling it badly today as I handicap the Balston Spa. I like Hungry Island, Zagora, Tapitsfly and Summer Soiree very much, imagine a field with Winter Memories too. There I'm doing it, Pity Party. I'm so glad Winter Memories retired and didn't die on the race track. It's going to be a good race still without her.
Whatever your play is, have fun with it. The Turk will be ensconced in his new leather man of the house chair, with HRTV streaming through a Mac Mini and into the TV. I have my laptop going and I am in my glory. I am a better handicapper in my house than at the track. I'm feelin' it today.
The equine athletes are horse racing first and foremost to the Ol' Turk, but a close second is the people behind the horses. Can there be a brighter light in Saratoga racing over a longer period of time than the Whitney's? The irrepressible Marylou dances it up with a dashing Tony Randall at the crossroads where glamour and racing met, a yesteryear where rich Corinthian leather in your car meant something.
Anyhow, summer marches along and waits for no one. Saratoga comes and stays with us and before you know it, its gone, along with summer for another year. Saratoga has its own ebb and flow, races that set up races, that lead to championship races, that lead to Fall Belmont and then Breeders' Cup where the circle comes complete for the year. During the flow, stepping stone rocks appear, and today is The Whitney Invitational Handicap, a stepping stone for The Woodward, sure, but Breeders' Cup Classic is what these runners are focused on, with maybe one more stepping stone race before that day in early November. With real dirt back at Santa Anita trainers can point to The Goodwood or The Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. Stepping stones start with a first stone, and there were many for this group: The Stephen Foster, The Suburban, The Salvator and Met Miles, The Cornhusker, this is a middle stone, some will jump to one more stone in September or October, and then Churchill Downs, trying to follow the path of last years winner, Blame.
This IS horse racing, the handicap division, as weak as it may seem to some, its deep in numbers if not full of elite champions.
I'm going to let the spreadsheets speak for themselves prerace and I'll spend more time than usual postrace breaking down the contenders, my pre race thoughts, and what unfolded. A bit backwards for sure but an exercise I like to do every month or so to help me spot things on the racechart that I see and then take that information and tie back to the past performances, when the animals are kind enough to run on dirt like the story unfolds on paper.
Have fun with a day like today and I'll be back later to mull the effort over.
I handicapped a big field in Race 11 to assemble a Pick Three bet. It's a 7 panel affair over dirt for 3 YOs and Up foaled in NYS which have never won a race other than yada yada yada. I like the 9-10-11 and I most likely will single one of them and keep my exposure low as today is more about handicapping homework than swinging for the fences. These fields are too deep and too talented for me to loosen the purse strings too much.
