The Nomination Is In: The Sanford Stakes Grade 2 at Saratoga

Welcome to The Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, I'm The Turk and today's challenge is the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes, a six furlong race for two year olds over the dirt at Saratoga.

Like a milepost along the thruway, when it's Sanford Stakes time, I know it's finally summer. That handsome fella pictured above is none other than the last great racehorse to win the Sanford Stakes, Afleet Alex in 2004. It's ironic that the "it" Stallion for me right now is Scat Daddy, the 2006 winner. Maria's Mon, the 1995 winner produced two Kentucky Derby winners, Super Saver and the speedy Monarchos. Forty Niner, 1987's winner, is from Mr. Prospector and went on to win the Haskell and the Travers Stakes. No need to point out the accomplishments of Affirmed and Secretariat, the 1977 and 1972 winners respectively. I think the moral is two year olds, you're in good company if you win this race.

While I am a handicapper I am stepping outside my comfort zone with this race: There are 19 starts between the 9 starters entered. A sore subject to be sure, but there are new rules governing the number of starters in juvenile races this year at Saratoga. It's important to understand that applies only to maiden juvenile races and there are differences between sprints and routes. Getting back to my point though, it's a different set of challenges when dealing with young horses, even horses of such class as these. Without 10 races per horse in the past performance and a video history of each runner I feel a bit lost. So what to do, throw darts? Pick by names? No, let's review what we have to work with and then build a realistic bet. I'll leave it to each of you how much investment capital to wager on such unknown quantities, but for me I have a limit and I won't exceed it. We'll build a bet strategy on a not to exceed basis.

The handicapping process still has the same steps and the first thing to do is understand the weather and the expected track conditions at post time. As I'm writing this on Friday, it's hard to say right now how things will be as it looks like there is a pretty good chance of rain this weekend, enough to have running water at the Spa (how novel.) Not surprising, only one horse has run on an off track, Bern Identity, who coincidentally has the lowest wet track Tomlinson number of the field at 360. I think we will have to ignore track condition for now as a handicapping factor. Let's start to collect our information on the people and the horses.

Trainer Stats give you a window, albeit a window with a curtain, as to who is doing well with youngsters and who isn't. Not surprisingly Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher start quite a few 2 YOs and both have won 67 juvenile races over the past year. I'm surprised that Dale Roman's hasn't had more success, not surprised at how poorly D. Wayne Lukas's numbers are and Wesley Ward is stealthy strong as always.



Let's take one more look at this group and see how they are doing in graded stakes races as well as how strong the jock/trainer records are:



How much weight should you put on the information in the past two charts? It's indicative of what you'd expect and quite frankly regular horse players could have guessed who would be better than others in which categories. That said, this is gambling, err, speculative investing on unproven commodities. For me, betting on 2 YOs is about having fun and swinging a bit for the fences. There's not much sense in building elaborate matrix style superfectas like I do for the handicap division because there's just not enough to hang your hat on. Let's figure out a bet strategy and stop chewing our gums:



The most likely chalk is Rose Junction: Pletcher is monster obviously, and the charts above highlight is success. Pletcher is 24% off the layoff and 32% after last start wins, and piling on he's 30% in sprints and 29% on dirt, top numbers with this group. It wouldn't be that fun to pick the heavy chalk so I'm going to be contrarian and Wesley Ward's Handsome Jack; the only gelding in the field (insert lost manhood jokes here) he's been training really sharp over the main track at SAR and ran strong from 3 wide in a close defeat last time out at 5.5 furlongs when he went to post at 8-1.

Bern Identity, saddled by Kelly Breen for the Hall's, with Napravnik up, ran 3F in :34 2/5ths this past week and will press the pace hard. The son of Bernstein who died way too soon for any ones liking blew the doors off last time out, winning by nearly 14 lengths. Things that make you say hmmmmm.

As my chart shows the remainder of the field is in a kinda-sorta exotic slot or I tossed them: Hightail (Lukas), Brave Dave and Good Tickled get to play the role of horse who makes the Turk like foolish. Special Jo, Onetwentyeight and John Gordon get some considerations.

I limited my suggestions to just three: An Exacta that has a 50-50 chance of breaking even or losing money, a 5 Horse 10 Cent Super that doesn't cost much and could do well if the chalk falters and a 6 horse super box that is overkill most likely. I will also watch the tote board right up till post time and look for the 3rd or 4th bettor's favorite and place a small win bet. If you're going to be speculative, might as well be a bit reckless now and then too, after all, this is gambling.

Whatever way you play it, have fun. I'll be at the Spa this coming Wednesday and Friday and then again for the Alabama weekend and the Woodward Stakes. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Sanford Stakes at Saratoga

When I think of emphatic two year old victories, I think of the winner of the 2004 Sanford Stakes, Afleet Alex, the record holder in this race with a time that was about six lengths off the track record set in 1972 by Spanish Riddle, a stable mate of the 1972 Sanford Stakes winner, Secretariat.

I'm off on a tangent as the Ol' Turk is inclined to do, but Spanish Riddle's story is fascinating; incredible speed only to lose part of a leg to amputation, fitted with a prosthetic device and he went on to stud for several years before dying of colic.

Before I go too far, let me thank The Thorofan for inviting me to handicap today. The Thorofan is a grass roots group of racing enthusiasts who are doing their part to bring the game to new fans as well as build a socially inclusive community at the track.

Handicapping two year old stake races in July isn't for the faint of heart; You'll lose, get use to it. But that said, it is gambling, we are capable of making educated guesses and completing analysis, so let's take a look at the field and make some general observations.



The Turk strongly believes in ignoring morning line odds until you've done your own handicapping. If you are going to skip morning lines, I'd also go the extra distance and encourage you to not read the bloggers and old media types telling you who they think will win until you also do your own work. It's not that I don't want you to read my ramblings, I just want you to put aside the bias of other people and build your own handicaps from scratch.

Morning lines or not, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to have your eyes drawn to the six horse, Overdriven. A Team Repole Stables joint, with Todd Pletcher and Johnny Velazquez already combining to put up a 100 Beyer at Belmont earlier this month. This horse will attract heavy betting action so what do we have: A heavy favorite balanced off by a decent sized field of 8. I'm trying not to prejudice my handicapping but right off the bat I'm thinking how do we beat the heavy favorite? The horse is making his second start after all, let's reserve the talk of Triple Crown contender for a little bit and let him earn respect.

That said, you still need someone who can beat him. The Turk is an information handicapper, a Past Performance tea leaf reader who likes to scour the Daily Race Form and Equibase race charts for information. One issue with two year olds is there is just not many running lines to lean on. You got a bunch of potential but not many results. If I don't have running lines to analyze, I'll take the step of studying the way the race has unfolded over a period of time. In this case, I've looked at the last 10 Sanford Stakes for guidance, courtesy of free Equibase historical charts



What did we take away: Six times the chalk won. Seven times the one or two post Placed. Seven wins were by more than 3 lengths. Five times the winner broke from one or two post.

You spend time studying these angles and you can often feel compelled to "apply" the information. I don't think much of the post one or post two horse, Tarpy's Goal and Moonrush respectively. They are babies and who knows what they will become but I don't see it for tomorrow and I am handicapping for tomorrow and not for next year and not for when they stretch out. Tarpy's Goal regressed the last time out, drifting out and coming in Show as a beaten chalk. Moonrush may be on the lead at the top of the stretch and if you are going to take a flyer, take it here for Place or Show. D. Wayne Lucas can't buy a graded stakes win right now.

So what do I think?



I like the closer, Power World from the 7 spot to win. Trainer Neil Howard clips along with 18% 2 YO winners and a 12% overall win rate, and he puts Prado up who clips along at 9% winning. those aren't knock the socks off numbers but I like his improved Beyer in grade 3 company and I like the sire Distorted Humor an awful lot. I'm looking to beat chalk and he looms logical to challenge.

The before mentioned expected heavy duty favorite will be Overdriven. The Tale of the Cat son out of Air France turned a :59 1/5 over 5f at SAR last week off the 100 Beyer at BEL on the first of the month. Trainer Pletcher has some pretty gaudy stats: 28% 2 YO winners, 29% won last start, 28% dirt, 30% sprints and 24% Graded Stakes. The jock/trainer clipped along at 32% of 88 starters at Saratoga last meet.

My next two are trainer by Wesley Ward who is putting up some good numbers himself: 30% 2 YO winners, 28% Dirt winners, 29% Sprint winners but 14% Graded Stakes. Black Rhino switches from the grass, something Ward does very well, but did not look good over dirt his first time out. Bless the Soldier is a Ward homebred who may ship to Monmouth instead so pay attention on race day to scratches and changes.

Finally, Jack's in the Deck has Dominguez up, that's 26% winner on 752 mounts Ramon Dominguez. A Grade 2 winner already, this Maryland bred is piloted from the outside and has a very strong closing kick.

How will the race unfold? Moonrush, Bless the Soldier and Black Rhino will race out the gate and churn out a :22 opening 1/4 mile. Jack's in the Deck will drift to the back with Power World and Overdriven will be rated into a stalk.

I'm gambling for the pure pleasure of it, but with the two year olds, as well as the competition that is present at a prestigious meet like Saratoga, you need to be prepared to lose. You only need to be smart now and then to stay slightly ahead and its my experience that I can do better with older horses at longer distances than I can with spa babies at 6 furlongs, so I'm going to keep my betting action reasonable.

I could go one of two ways. First up, Exacta. If I'm assembling an Exacta I'm only doing it with the chalk either in Place or out of the money and I'm hunting for value. Something like the 7 over the 8 or the 7 over 2 would get your 42 bucks back in buckets. I'd take 8 bucks and put together 4 combinations that don't include the chalk and see what happens.

My first love is Exotics, Superfecta's in particular. The 10 cent variety are available here and for $6.60 I can put the 6-7-8 OVER the 6-7-8 with the 2, 4,5,6,7,8, OVER 2,4,5,7 and 8.

I assume Overdriven finishes no lower than third and I give speedball Moonrush a chance at Show or fourth and I give Jack's in the Deck respect to hit anywhere.

OK, you've handicapped, it's safe now to look at the morning lines and the rantings of bloggers. Build your bets and let the dice fall how it may. Thanks for reading and hopefully you'll do well based on your own opinions.

Have fun, Turk Out!