The Nomination Is In: The 144th Belmont Stakes Superfecta

I scrapped the blog entry that I wrote, just hit the delete button, right after the news that I'll Have Another was scratched. I considered not blogging or betting at all. Just numb. If you're reading a horse racing blog, I'm betting you know exactly what I mean.

Secretariat doesn't belong to me. In 1973 I was seven, and while my parents saw Secretariat race, those feelings aren't first person to me. Affirmed, different story. While hard for young people now to believe, horse racing was on television, was covered in Sports Illustrated, was in the daily newspapers. I remember like yesterday sitting at a family first communion party for my little cousin watching Affirmed win the Kentucky Derby. I remember vividly coming home from school to check the mail for my SI magazine. I experienced that Triple Crown as a horse racing fan, not a bettor, and the thrill of it is still deep set within me. I was convinced Big Brown was going to win. Take Desormeaux off and I would have declared it a lock. I liked I'll Have Another coming out of Santa Anita Derby, but I wasn't sold until the Preakness stretch run. My deleted blog entry singled I'll Have Another in the Superfecta, I thought he would win the Triple Crown. I had his summer mapped out in my mind. I saw him winning the Goodwood G1 before winning The Breeders' Cup Classic. Hope dashed, yet hope still springs eternal. Another Triple Crown season will come next year and another chance to fall wildly in love with a horse, a jockey and even a trainer and connections that while flawed, are really just a mirror of society in general.

I think this is a decent betting race still and I've built a 10 Cent and $1 Dollar Superfecta that has some value. Let's get after it!



A Baffert/Lucas Exacta- Is this 1999 or 2012? I like Paynter on top, but more gut feel than anything. Less polished that Dullahan or Union Rags, he's sharp and rested. Quite a class jump, but 4 of the last 5 Belmont Winners were starting their first Triple Crown race. Not singled, but solid value and a legit shot.

Optimizer is me being a bit, optimistic. Trainer Lucas finally broke his year long Graded Stakes slump. This English Channel son should still be running with a 1/4 mile to go. What a story this would make: Lukas, freshly stitched up, in a late career swoon. Storybook.

Dullahan has winner's credentials and I mean him no disrespect, I'm just thinking a bit different today. Roman's training regime, especially the the 4f :45 4/5ths run blow and the 1 mile work is mastercraftsman like. Winless in four tries on dirt.

Union Rags is a nice horse but not a great horse yet. I think he could be a very good handicap division horse and if he comes out of today healthy he still has a late summer and fall to make some noise with. I can't see a win, but just too good to ignore. I like the jock switch as Leparoux didn't seem to get the best of him this year.

Street Life goes for Chad Brown and has lots of talent. Five Sixteen is a gelded son of Invasor. Gut call.

After such a let down, today will just be about what could have been and a bit of fun with who's still left.

Have fun friends, Turk out!

Handicappers Homework: Decoding the Derby Contenders

It's hard not to get excited about the Kentucky Derby. To people who are heavily invested in this sport, and I'll only speak for myself, I love seeing Derby coverage in the mainstream media as well as excitement build with horse racing civilians. As a blogger, I make new readers and new friends every year that I do this; I like to think that this is because I'm friendly, easy to approach, and don't have alot of fancy jargon's and metrics tied to my handicapping.

At this point in the season, the three year olds are starting to show us what they have. These are not the blank sheets of paper we handicapped last year during the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, no no no, these horses now have a resume, and these sort of resumes are best watched, not read. To my new friends and new readers, do yourself a favor, stop reading and just watch some video on these animals. Pay attention to the last 12 to 24 seconds of the race, watch which horses are extending their strides and which ones are contracting. Watch which horses pull even with other horses, do the pass them, do they get close and not pass them, is this a pattern in their other races.

Ignore most of what you read, including bald idiot handicappers like the ol' Turk. Go to DRF.com and watch the clockers reports. The best handicappers in America are not writing the articles in the mainstream press, even the mainstream horse racing press. Fluff and human interest stuff sells papers but it doesn't give you a clue about who will win the Derby. Try a few blogging sites where you will find some really sharp folks. For you newbies, try Hello Race Fans! as well as horse racing blog aggregate sites like Race Wire 360. The 'Ol Turk is a proud member of a fantastic group of writers at Turf as well as The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance.

I think it's pointless to do too much handicapping before you know the post position draw and what the weather seems to be shaping up as. With a basic idea of how the race may unfold I have broken down the 20 horses into three groups: Horses with a chance to Win, Place, Show or be in Superfecta or Super High Five, Horses with a chance to be in the Top 10 and Horses I've tossed out of consideration. The last group is most assuredly where you will find this year's winner!

Group 1: Union Rags, Bodemeister, Daddy Nose Best, Gemologist and I'll Have Another
Group 2: Hansen, Creative Cause, Alpha, Take Charge Indy, Went the Day Well, Dullahan, Rousing Sermon
Group 3: Daddy Long Legs, Liason, El Padrino, Prospective, Trinniberg, Optimizer, Done Talking, Sabercat

Anyway, watch the videos, it won't take long, and spot for yourself a winner.

Have fun with it. The Turk will be back tomorrow with the final edition of the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll and Friday Morning we will have our Oaks/Derby Double selections ready to go. turk out!

Breeders'Cup Juvenile 2011



Arkansas Derby 2012



Santa Anita Derby 2012



Florida Derby 2012



Wood Memorial 2012



UAE Derby 2012



Sunland Derby 2012



Blue Grass Stakes 2012



Spiral Stakes 2012



Tampa Bay Derby 2012



Cash Call Futurity 2011

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 3 Skip Away and Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

I love the big weekends like the next horse racing fan, and as a fan, I'm excited to see Union Rags and El Padrino face each other, but ugh, a rather uninspiring field is mixed in with them, and the card in general doesn't do much for me, so as a bettor, I'll pass on Gulfstream Park.

The duality of bettor and fan can coexist, but you have to do your best to not think with your heart. As a fan, embrace the horses with all your passion. It never gets old for me seeing these equine three year olds progress throughout the spring on a march towards the Kentucky Derby. The reality is that most of the Triple Crown nominated horses will not be successful on the biggest stages. Some of them will end up like Uptowncharliebrown, competing in today's Skip Away, other's, like Z Camelot will have a future on the turf. Regardless if they complete in graded stakes or optional claimers as long as they are well cared for, I'm excited to see them run and I love following their careers. In fact, I find the older horses more interesting and my mind and heart is captured by the runners who weren't the best three year olds but went out to do great things later in life. That's a bit of blasphemy, but oh well, I'm a blogger, I'm allowed to not spout the company line.

As a gambler I have no such emotions. I am looking for races that I can decoded and in order to have a good betting race you need some parity. Parity is what makes picking winners harder and what creates betting situations that are worthy of a capital investment. It is capital investing after all, more risky than some internet IPO, but as has been proven over and over again by disciplined bettors, if you stay consistent and you ride the good times and the bad, and most importantly, you know what you are doing, the rewards can be reaped.

I wasn't expecting the Florida Derby to be a great betting race, and what really hardened my mind to not betting Gulfstream today was the lack of a better older horse turf race, as the Appleton isn't very compelling. I will be paying attention to the Gulfstream Park Oaks, as I like Hard Spun's daughter, Zo Impressive, who trounced In Lingerie last time out.

Perhaps the last few paragraphs sounded like whining, that was not my intention; as a bettor we have many choices every weekend, my only point is you can be a fan and watch and not bet the card. Bet where you think you have the best chance to win. Keep it real, look for winners at odds greater than 4-1 and swing for the fences at the $2 window. Keep your money for the Single Barrel Jack you'll consume later. I'll be drinking some later with the classy folks from the Turk fan club.

I like my trainers with thin barns but deep integrity. That gentleman above is a man's man, a hero. I think of him in the same thoughts as Johnathan Sheppard and Bill Mott, Michael Matz.

I did handicap the card and I'll share my jaded thoughts on two of the races.




The weather should not be an issue. As always, keep an eye on track conditions and scratches and changes.

Have fun with it. I'm still studying my options but I think Santa Anita may be my alternative today. Turk Out!

Happy Birthday Tim- You are very missed!

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Volume 2 and The Turk's Top 12

Only on the Internet does a hack like The Turk, an admittedly lousy young horse prognosticator, get to give his opinions on who the best three year olds in the county are.

Volume 2 of this year's Wire Player's Derby Dozen Poll is now out, and while I'm a part of this group, these people actually know what they are doing! Shockingly, seven of my selections have made the top 12 this week. I almost bust my gut at the lovely Jill Baffert's shout out at how we suck, but I do have Drill higher than my companions.

Friends, this is what horse racing is about, opinions, comments, and a shared love of these animals. If horses are only numbers on the Form in your mind, The Turk is the wrong blog for you. Things will be heating up this weekend with the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth primarily. The calendar is about to turn over to March. I could write a few more ranting paragraphs about the old days when three year olds ran every three weeks but I won't bother, the landscape has shifted. There may be this weekend and one more race before Kentucky for the biggest stars and you'll have to form an opinion off a limited resume. Who wants the distance, let that dictate your thoughts, who's going to want that distance.



And The Turk's opinions only...



Have fun with this friends. Turk out!

The Wire Players Kentucky Derby Dozen Poll- Volume 1 2012

Getting out the vote. It's that time again, the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll is back for a third year. A collection of fine journalists and bloggers, and one idiot bald bigmouth will bring to you the top Kentucky Derby Contenders from now until the first Saturday in May.

In between I'll bring you as much video as I can find on the contenders, as well as reviews of the major prep races, and we'll try to solve this annual brain twister together. My goals remain the same: The Oaks-Derby Double and the Derby Superfecta and Super High Five. Let's get after it!



In all seriousness, its a real honor for the Ol' Turk to be involved with such an insightful and snarky collection of fellas and one pretty lady who knows her stuff.

The Derby Dozen Poll Panel

Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation
Rob from Amateurcapper
Derek Brown
Carly Kaiser
Geno from EquiSpace
Tencentcielo
Tony Bada Bing from A Leg Up
Paul Mazur
Dylan Jarmulowicz

and of course, the man, Steve from Wire Players

Be well friends, Turk out!