The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Stakes Grade 1 at Saratoga

Frosted winning The Whitney; Photo Adam Coglianese

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Today I'm writing this blog entry on The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga for both my hard core readers  and the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner.

Frosted!  Did you see the Met Mile and The Whitney? I've never been that high on horses returning from Dubai, but wow did this horse blow up that stereotype of me.





He checks every box for me:  13 of 17 in the money lifetime, 9 of 13 in the money the last two years with 5 wins. 5 of 5 in the money with 3 wins at the distance.  12 of 16 with 6 wins on fast dirt. Trainer McLaughlin and Jockey Rosario are 45% winners at Saratoga.  Class breeding and premier barn and connections.

I can try and be a wiseguy but that's not me.  My handicapping, perhaps old school in this day of analytics, is based on class, pace, past performance and conditions.  I'm not going to waste too much time making a case while Frosted will lose and instead focus on who I think will be able to hit the ticket.  Bet construction will focus on some exactas with Frosted singled and then maybe one Trifecta with Frosted in place and my Win and Show horses boxed in both spots.

Let's get after this!




Who other than Frosted can win? I see two possible candidates in Bradester and Mubtaahij.
Bradester is the modestly bred, with a Classic's pedigree, six year old son of Lion Heart.  9 wins in 22 starts on fast dirt, 16 of 22 in the money on fast dirt, 18 of 24 in the money lifetime.  1 win in 3 starts at the distance and only one appearance at Saratoga, a Place in 2013.  Three straight wins, including the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap and the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup over slop.





Trainer Kenneally keep Jock Bravo, up.  Expect him to be on the lead all the way.  My base handicap assumes Frosted catches him.

Mubtaahij (Ire) returned from Dubai and got one tuneup in the G2 Suburban.



Five straight published workouts at SAR since the Suburban, all at 4f, all about :49 even.  Trainer McLaughlin enters him and hard to tell what the expectation is other than a tracking trip.  I think he'll be close and could win if Frosted falters.

Shaman Ghost and Breaking Lucky are the others I'm considering for the Trifecta ticket and I'm tossing Samraat at my own peril from the top three.  It's fairly rare for me to talk about two horses at a Saratoga race that previously competed at my home track of Fort Erie, but these two did in the 2015 Princess of Wales Stakes as both are Ontario bred.

Shaman Ghost ran a bullet :48 4/5ths, top of 61 horses on 28 August.  He exited the Suburban too where he tracked wide most of the trip and fell off.  He's on Lasix for the first time today, an angle Trainer Jerkens has done 23 times this year, winning a paltry 4%.  Jerkens and Castellano are winless in six tries at SAR.

Breaking Lucky, the 4 YO son of Looking at Lucky (I feel old suddenly!) is slower than most here and in a speed battle I don't think he can win but i think he's game enough to be in the jet stream.



Game, yes.  Tactical speed, a bit with a late 2f burst of  :23 and 4/5ths.  Still looked wonky to me near the finish in Grade 3 company.

I don't feel too much concern tossing Catholic Cowboy (love the name, Mrs. Turk would pick em'), Tapin Mojo or Tale of Verve.  They will all be long prices which is a good thing/bad thing.  I'm not interested in bet construction that hopes for an incredible fluky finish but someone is and they will have a good day at the track if it happens.  My long term ROI is built on avoiding "scratch off ticket" styles of bets.  Samraat at least belongs in the conversation of this race, especially off his spring Belmont campaign for Trainer Violette.  You can cover alot of horses and overbet or you can make tough choices.  I'm making a tough choice and tossing him at my own peril.

My suggested bets are along these lines:

$2 Exacta:  3 OVER 4-1-2 for $6

$2 Tri:  3 OVER 4 -9-1-2 OVER 4-9-1-2 for $24

And/Or (I think OR)

$2 Tri: 4-9-1 OVER 3-2-4-9-1 OVER 3-2-4-1  for $60

I like the Exacta and the Tri with Frosted on top, while the $60 lottery ticket offers the most reasonable pizzazz.

Whatever you do, keep your bets reasonable and enjoy the races.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic

Tonalist: image by Travis Lindquist

First of all, thank you to The Thorofan for allowing me to hack my way through the handicap of the richest race in North America, the Breeders' Cup Classic.  I am clearly not worthy!

The Turk's been on a blogging holiday since mid summer.  Sometimes I need a break from the game, and after a very emotional Triple Crown season, I needed some racing downtime.  At the same time I took a handicapping break I worked more on completing my MBA.  I've learned enough to know that handicapping and gambling on horse racing is a horrible investment, even for most of the best handicappers, so if you are reading this handicap and you lost more money than you should have this weekend, stop, this isn't a panacea for what ails you.  Seek Help! That's The Ol' Turk's public message.  I handicap because I enjoy the mental exercise and I've learned over the years I am good enough to stay near break even over the long run, punctuated by periods of incredible success and incredible failure.

Not much handicapping is really needed for a race like the Breeders' Cup Classic .  We have a Triple Crown Winner, American Pharoah, six million dollar plus earners, and no real wildcards like a freaky good filly such as Beholder, a scratch.  We have a classy 3 YO son of Galileo, Gleaneagles (Ire) who has never run in North American, never run on fast dirt and hasn't been past 1 mile.  I call this noise, a distraction.

Let's stop rambling and get after this!





I'm not as hung up on American Pharoah's Travers Stakes loss as I am that he's had a grueling year and while class and skill could still carry him to a win, a 4-5 odds or worse, do I really want to back that as a gambler?  If you want to be a fan, great, and we need more of them, but I'm a gambler, a race track investor, and I don't see much reason to risk capital on a bet like that.  All that said, I still think he's due to regress and it creates a real opportunity to find some value.  I like the work tab Baffert has put him through and I think he's still top 4.



Unfortunately for me, I've identified Tonalist as my chalk, and he'll most likely be bet down below 4-1.  I've made some very good money on Christophe Clement's turf runners over the past several years and I love the ride he's had with the 4 YO son of Tapit.

Stepping back, I have a group of five horses that I think are are possible for Place or Show.  I think Frosted, along with American Pharoah and Tonalist is the only other I may cover in the win spot.  Expecting 10-1 or worse, the 3 YO son of Tapit, this maybe purely a value insertion and most likely I will flip flop Keen Ice and Frosted in my actual bets.  I like Keen Ice better actually, with a good finish at the Haskell and the win at the Travers. I'd like to not see him drop to under 5-1.

Smooth Roller is my looney tunes idea.  A very raw 4 YO gelded Hard Spun, he ran a beautiful Awesome Again in late September and I'm willing to entertain him pulling of Show or the exotic 4th spot.



Did I skip Honor Code?  No, but I can't cover everyone.  I've got him in the RED/TOSS group but again in full disclosure, if his odds lengthen past 7-1 I misght be inclined to cover him in Show and 4th.

Who will screw me up?  Frosted and Effinex.  I like Effinex an awful lot.  His Suburban Handicap, beating Tonalist, was very very game.  His Woodward and his Jockey Club Gold Cup were both regressions for the New York Bred 4 Yo son of Mineshaft.  Back to Frosted, he hasn't won past 1 1/8 miles.  I think I have him too high and I have to put some thought into my final bets.



So I don't this very often, in fact I've never done it in 8 years of blogging, but I've got an alternative universe handicap I might actually like better than the one I led with.

What's different and what's the same?

I brought Keen Ice up to a share of the Win Spot.  I brought Effinex up to Place or Show, as well as Honor Code.  I dropped Frosted and Smooth Roller outside of the Top 4 and I left American Pharoah right where I had him.




Whatever you do, have fun with it!

Turk Out

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby

Reed Palmer/CD

The Turk is not dead, nor did he give up on the horses.  The Turk is working long hours and going to school at the same time, so while handicapping continues, blogging time is at a premium.  Alas, as the semester comes to a close, and The Turk inches 4 credit hours closer to a Masters Level Education, I return to blogging with today's Kentucky Derby and my annual quest at the holy grail of my betting universe, the Super High Five.  The only horse I really developed an emotional attachment to over the Winter was El Kabeir.  I can't explain it, who can explain their race track romances, but the grey/roan Florida bred son of Scat Daddy, just did it for the inner fan in me.  The inner handicapper, the cold, investment banker side of me is not at all saddened that I won't have the burden of emotional attachment clouding my handicapping.   With three scratches already, El Kabeir, International Star and Stanford, Frammento joins the field at very long odds and most likely the first toss of my handicap.   

Enough rambling, let's get it on! 

Race 11 Churchill Downs

	Horse/Post	Turk's Grade
Win	Dortmund/8	A++
Place	Carpe Diem/2	A+
Show	American Pharoh/18	A+
Exotic	Materiality/3	B+
Also Ran's	Mubtaahij (Ire)/6	B+
	Firing Line/10	B
	Frosted/15	B
	Upstart/19	B-
	Far Right/20	B-
	Danzig Moon/5	B--
	Itsaknockout/13	B--
	Keen Ice/14	C+
	Mr Z/17	C+
	Bolo/9	C+
	War Story/16	C-
	Ocho Ocho Ocho/1	C-
	Tencendur/4	C-
	Frammento/21	D
	Churchill Downs Race 11: Post Time 6:34 ET	The Kentucky Derby G1
	1 1/4 Miles on Dirt	For 3 YOs and Up

The Super Hi-5 can be a very expensive bet.  A $1 seven horse box would cost $2,520.  I would call it a lottery ticket more than anything.  I've won the Super Hi-5 three times in 20 years, but all with singled huge favorites on top and the 10 cent variety of bet that allowed the investment to be much smaller.  I'm at a point in my handicapping life where I get incredible satisfaction for my handicaps and bets that minimize covers. It that vein of thought I propose the following off of my base handicap:

	Win	Place	Show	Exotic 1	Exotic 2
8	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund
2	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem
18	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh
3	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality
6	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij
10	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line
19	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart
15	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted
20	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right

A one dollar bet on this base bet would cost $768.  That's not happening!  I'll play with it but I'll most likely go with something like this:

	Win	Place	Show	Exotic 1	Exotic 2
8	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund	Dortmund
2	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem	Carpe Diem
18	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh	Am. Pharoh
3	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality	Materiality
6	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij	Mubtaabij
10	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line	Firing Line
19	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart	Upstart
15	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted	Frosted
20	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right	Far Right

This one dollar bet is a more reasonable $205.  

This bet is NOT for everyone.  It's something I do knowing that the odds of hitting are very low. That's not my business model friends, but it's the Derby and I like the challenge.

For fun, I'll play some of my favorites with long shots in an exacta.

Enjoy the day, thanks for reading.

Turk Out!