Post Race Analysis for Race Day October 7, 2011; Keeneland Fall Meet Opening Day

Friends, don't hate the Player! I'm not sure I could have scripted my gambling action on opening day at Keeneland any better than today unfolded. Handicap or Bet Structure? Both really. Simple boxed Superfectas using my base handicaps and being prepared enough to deal with seven scratches in race 7 is the story of the day.

Let's get after this:

Keeneland Race 7-8



I didn't have abundant time to prepare a bet strategy today because as opposed to those folks living down on Wall Street, I'm fully employed and earning my right to be indebted.

I kept it simple; Race 7 had a whopping seven scratches. I took my top four from my base handicap and boxed them and $455 later the strategy was proven adequate. I really thought Blues Street could win and I liked his place on the tote board as the bettors 3rd favorite. As he was my chalk, I was contrarian. In my mind this was a pretty straightforward and rather easy bet to make, but that's hindsight. The handicap was solid and I didn't need to over think it. They don't always break that way. I would have bet the same way even if the scratched horses had run, but the payout would have been better. Sigh.

Race 8 is where I feel my experience kicks in. Speaking of opposing view points I placed Flashpoint no higher than Show in my base handicap. He had been training lights out on the fake plastic for Trainer Ward but was racing on it for the first time. Always demand to see results first, don't bet an underlay that hasn't proven himself on the surface.

Prerace I expressed my intrigue in Hoofit (Nz). Not much on the PP's would point you to a win except a nice last race on the plastic at PID. The bettors had him 6th, I had him at least in Fourth. I took my top five and boxed them and walked off with $1,182.

I'm pretty pleased with the three hours of effort I put into these handicaps. This was a good day, and as a gambler you must understand they won't all be like this.

Have fun friends and thank you for making the launch of Turf so successful.

The Nomination Is In: October 7, 2011: Keeneland Opening Day Fall 2011

I love the beauty of Keeneland. I love the ebb and flow that Keeneland provides the racing calendar; the start of spring, the end of summer, like bookends on the turf racing season. I love the beauty of the track and the details that seem to pop out when you take time to just look. I'd like to rant about the fake plastic dirt, and I won't lie, I'd rather it was dirt, but it seems to play fair and it does allow for racing and handicapping in the sometimes horrible weather that can accompany these meets, so I'm going to say I don't mind it and have come to be as accepting of it here as I am Arlington, Woodbine and PID. Now Del Mar and Hollywood, don't get me started.

When I went looking for a picture that screamed Keeneland I found a clock, a majestic Rolex clock, taken by a wonderful writer, the talented Michigan Bred Claimer, Joe Nevills, who I thank for its use.

I handicapped a sequence of races that lead to a late Pick Three that finishes with the Grade 1 Alcibiades. i really dislike two year old racing and I just can't seem to get that interested in the Grade 1 affair so out with the Pick 3 and we'll just focus on a very nice Allowance Race on Turf and a Grade 3 sprint on the plastic. Let's get it on!




Twelve horses should enter the gate in a $58,000 allowance, 1 mile on what should be firm turf. I placed Blue's Street on top, but the chalk isn't that heavy. A Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner, recently shifted by Anstu Stables to Eddie Kennelly's barn from the trainer Pletcher. A real dog last time out, Kenneally is a 24% winner with first timers and Blues Street is a talented 7 YO gelded son of Street Cry (Ire): 12 of 12 in the money at the distance, 17 of 27 in the money on Turf, 5 of last 9 in the money. Leparoux is up. I do not believe he will be the bettor's chalk, that honor most likley will go to Yankee Fourtune, so I am looking for an a good price as well.

There is lots to like about Yankee Fourtune and the only thing i don't care for is the long layoff, but McLaughlin hits 32% off this sort of extended rest. MClaughlin places Alan Garcia up, and they combine for 27% winners at KEE over past year in 11 tries. 5 wins in 6 tries on turf, gotta love the will to win, a nice contract to Bim Bam who we'll get too.

Not much separating my next layer, Moryba (Brz) and Bim Bam. Morya (Brz), trained by Bill Mott, is a fairly consistent runner cutting back in distance. 9 of 15 in the money on turf and competitive in his Grade 2 races this year.

Bim Bam has no wins in last 15 starts and zero of 9 in 2011 while getting up for Place 6 times in last 20 and 12 of last 27 Place or Show. Doesn't seem to want to win but more than capable of 4th.

I have Hollinger next but Mikoshi is better overall; Mikoshi is a 5 year old Orientate horse trained by Matz with Go Go Gomez up. Winless in two tries at KEE, 1 win in six starts at distance, but 15 of 20 in the money turf. Last time out at Woodbine he laid an egg. His post and his last effort will have to be reversed but tough spot.

Hollinger has two Show finishes in last 7 races, never won at the distance and only 1 turf win in 5 tries. Trainer Attfield is pretty sharp and would not be surprised if he scratches out of here.

Cherokee Artist has Johnny V up for Trainer Motion. I'm actually going to flip flop him and Hollinger in my base handicap. No wins in 5 tries at the distance, 1 win in 10 tries on turf, winless at KEE and 1 win in last 13.

I'll build a superfecta out of this, matrixed as I won't cover any of the exotic picks in the win spot.

In the Grade 3 Phoenix, I think Aikenite is a deserving chalk and I expect he will be the chalk at post time. 3 of 4 in the money at KEE with 2 wins. Pletcher and Johnny Velazquez win 41% of KEE starts and 29% overall in past year on a whopping 705 starts together.

Sterling Outlook has been claimed twice in past six months and last out gamely dead heated a win at 6 furlongs at Del Mar with a 101 BSF. Trainer Saddler places Gomez up and the two win 235 of the time together. 2 wins on fake dirt in 9 tries. Feast or famine I reckon.

Hamazing Destiny is very reliable and honest. Trainer Lucas is looking for a graded stakes win, with an unthinkable zero for 69 streak in the rolling year. 5 of 10 in the money at the distance.

Flashpoint is training very fast on the fake stuff, banging out :59 and change 5f workouts at KEE. First time racing on plastic so how the Pomeroy son performs, who knows. Could get bet down to the chalk and maybe the bettors are right but I'm not there yet. He's very good though so we'll cover the top spot with him. Trainer Ward very respected here at The Turk and Little Turk.

Only other horse I'm covering is a bit of value, Hoofit (Nz) . I'm not sure what to expect but he ran well at PID in September.

The Turk has never been very successful at Keeneland, especially the poly races. I'll be playing quite a few early to get a feel for it and we'll see if we can't do a bit better here.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Horse players, in late September horse racing lost a super fan, in fact the HRN Fan of the Year, "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds. Please consider a completely tax deductible donation to help for the education fund of Tim's daughter, Lauren.

There are so many people and organizations that need our help, I know that, but if possible, please help the family of one of our own, a horse racing fan who oozed passion for this sport and who is dearly missed by his friends and family.

Thank You friends. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 30, 2011; The Met Mile Grade I at Belmont Park

The Turk is honored this week to be writing this handicap for The ThoroFan, a thoroughbred racing association that gives fans a voice.

The Metropolitan Handicap, better known as the Met Mile, is one of the Ol' Turks favorite races each year. When you live in snow country as I do, Memorial Day is the traditional start of warm weather that will end, well, right about Woodward Stakes Day. Non horse people may have said Labor Day, but passionate folks, people who gravitate to organizations like ThoroFan most likely think all year of the next big stakes day. If you are reading this I'm sure you understand what I'm saying.

This edition of the race, with the mid week news that expected chalk Morning Line was scratched by trainer Zito with a foot issue, is pretty wide open. The eleven runners have a combined one grade one stakes win, that by the handsome five year old son of Speightstown, Haynesfield, who has five Belmont Park wins as well, only one less than the rest of the field combined. We still seek someone to step forward and take the mantle as best older horse in training in America.

It's an oddity to me that races contested at one mile are not the most competitive in the United States, and you only need to look at this year's Kentucky Derby to understand how few horses are true classic distance runners in training right now. 8 furlongs with speed is what we seem to have bred. Imagine the gag fest in a few short weeks when the classic distance challenged amongst us add another 1/4 mile to the effort. Some failed runners over the past few years would have been so much better off just running the mile distance. I still think last years winner of the Met Mile, Quality Road was miscast and should have been a Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile contestant. He should still be in training too but I digress.

This is also the first Breeders' Cup "Win and Your In" race of the year, and the winner receives entry fees and $10,000 in travel expenses, as well as possibly a rub down and peppermints, but let's keep that on the down low, what happens in the stalls at Churchill Downs really should stay at Churchill Downs.

Let's get after it!

Belmont Park Race 10: The Met Mile



The spreadsheet shouldn't necessarily be viewed as the predicted order of finish: I slot the horses into ranges from the win spot to out of the money, and then I take post position, expected pace factors, track surface conditions and build my bet. My preferred betting plan these days is a Pick Three or Pick Four multi race bet, with superfecta and trifecta betting within the races. I like to handicap the races at least the night before and use the time leading up to the windows going closed to adjust my bet based on scratches and changes, trusted paddock reports but most importantly how the track is playing.

It's important to understand the track configuration as well; Belmont Park has big sweeping curves, and outside runners can bring speed into those sweeping corners and explode onto the stretch. Typically Belmont at this distance favors stalkers, but that's a generality and you should look for races the day before and on the undercard at the same distance and see what happens with the speed.

After building my handicap I made a decision to give Haynsefield my tepid chalk as I expect him to bounce back from a dull effort in the Grade III Winchester at Belmont on 30 April.



Haynesfield is six of seven in the money at Belmont. Two races back in the Cigar Mile he posted a career high 111 Beyer in a game second to Jersey Town. This is his second effort off a long layoff. There is no heavy chalk, and with morning line of 7-2, I think it's realistic he'll slip to 4-1 and I'll take stand with him at that price.

After Haynesfield, I see a group of four horses capable of winning and most likely three of the four will be in the money.

Aikenite is a horse I never thought much of as a three year old. A year can make a big difference and I was impressed by his effort in the Grade II Churchill Downs. He's quietly strung three 100+ Beyers together for Trainer Pletcher and this is his third effort in his form cycle and its not inconceivable to run another big race. Currently at 9-2, I see him slipping to 7-2 in my fair odds table.

Caxia Eletronica starts for the 42 time, a staggering number by today's stake race standards. He's a hard knocker, winning 13 times, 27 of 41 in the money, 22 of 34 in the money on fast dirt and 7 of 13 in the money at the distance. Yup, hard knocker. he had a perfect trip in the Winchester and the Repole Stable runner is a four legged Roy Hobbs. A sharp :59 1/5th at 5f a week ago signals continued good health and form.

Tizway ran a solid show in this race last year. He looked wonderful winning the 1 mile Kelso at Belmont last October, and while he hasn't won in 2011, he's been placed in some tough races and ran against some solid competition. He's game and he'll finish well.

I really like the four year old Empire Maker son, Soaring Empire. Training very sharply, the fresh runner hasn't gone to the gate since March. He'll be flying at the end.

After these five there are a few dangerous runners. You can't cover everybody and one thing I've learned as a bettor is to build the handicap and bet the handicap. OK Turk, what do you mean? I handicap the race and then when I go to bet I don't toss in one more runner just to be safe. The next three my handicap are all good enough to win, but I've shaded them down. Only four horses will fill out the superfecta, someone will be on the outside looking in. It's not personal, some of the uncovered I may like, but you have to have conviction and then you got to let it ride.

Tackleberry concerns me: On lasix for the first time, trainer Olivares has been quoted as saying he's breezed with lasix and looked good on it. I expect him to bring the early heavy speed and I'm banking on him faltering out of the top four but all it takes is a neck into a blanket finish to foul the works. A Grade II winner, what the gelding gives up in class he makes up in guts. I like Tackelberry but I'm not covering him here. This is gambling after all.

Ibboyee is a force in state restricted affairs and he's in deeper waters here. I'd like him more if he had at least one win at Belmont or one win at the distance or if his last win wasn't at Finger Lakes.

Kensei has been sharpening nicely for Trainer Assmussen but he has not run well at Belmont with the exception of the Grade II Dwyer in 2009.

I've tossed from consideration Stormy's Majesty, Yawanna Twist and Rodman. All of them have the potential to find the top four spots but you'll drive yourself nuts if you don't take a stand and eliminate from contention some entrants.

The Superfecta bet isn't something you are going to hit every time and if you can't consistently pick winners and identify a group of six horses that the top four are a part of, take a step back and look at the exacta and trifecta. Losing money isn't fun and I only place these bets because I have a multi year history I can draw on that tells me I can do a bit better than break even and occasionally when I get some longer prices into the top four I can hit a signer. It's not a bet to chase with heavy chalk and smallish fields. The 10 cent variety will give newcomers to the bet and casual bettors a chance to be competitive without risking the mortgage money. Bet responsibly.

Have fun with this friends and remember true spirit of Memorial Day. I appreciate the opportunity to handicap for the ThoroFan and I thank the wonderful Sarah K. Andrew for use of the fantastic picture of Haynesfield.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 7, 2011: The Kentucky Derby, The Churchill Downs and Turf Classic

I'm sitting here the next day and I can't help but revisit the Past Performances for the Kentucky Derby. in hindsight there are some things to really like about Animal Kingdom on paper, but the thing I missed on was he was one of so few bred to go the distance. That final damn one eighth of a mile, 660 feet, it might as well be from here to the moon for most of that field. As a handicapper I knew he could handle the distance but I dinged him for no dirt starts and a rather undistinguished prep campaign that ended six weeks ago. I tip my Panama straw hat to some very fine handicappers who were touting Animal Kingdom to me. I was blind, but now I see my friends. An especially big shout out to Steve and Tony Bada Bing, as well as the others on the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen team that had Animal Kingdom 6th on the final poll.

I had 695 gross reasons to celebrate yesterday ($295 net)which no matter how you shake it, is still better than losing. More importantly, I made some kick ass mint juleps, with and without alcohol for Little Turk and the Canadian cousins, Shane and Serena Turk. We had a nice Derby party at my house and all who attended seemed to enjoy themselves well.

While I am happy for Team Valor, these offbeat prep campaigns only seem to enable others to try and go off of six week layoffs and limited starts and I don't want anything perpetuating that trend. Funny me, I actually want to see the horses run! Anyway....

Churchill Downs Race 9-10-11



I would be stewing right now but I felt pretty good about Get Stormy wiring The Turf Classic. I kept the betting pretty simple because of the distraction of muddling the mint and in general, the handicaps weren't that bad. This wacky Triple Crown season continues and I thoroughly enjoyed yesterday. The company seemed to enjoy the coverage on Versus, the HRTV coverage earlier in the day was good, and NBC was pretty good too. I didn't think there were too many bad moments but I wish the TV folks would stop feeling like they need to show us D List celebrities. My favorite moment was Aaron Rodgers talking about "...the last two minutes of the race" being the most exciting. Good job Aaron, I agree, the first 2 seconds yesterday were very forgettable.

I'd be remiss in not saying Happy Mothers Day to all the Mothers who read The Turk, as well as Mrs. Turk, Momma Turk and Sister Turk. My Mother and Sister taught me how to be a gentleman and carry myself with dignity and aplomb. I thank you both!




Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: April 10, 2010; The Blue Grass Stakes Grade I at Keeneland

Beautiful Keeneland, my heart may come back to you, but it hasn't yet. The old Turk spent his formative years defending American freedom's on the frontline of the Cold War. Occasionally on our time off we'd come face to face with other young and formative Americans who didn't like us. We were taught, much to our chagrin, that our biggest role was to defend the rights given to all Americans under the Constitution, especially the rights of assembly and free speech.

I'm good with defending the free speech and conduct of people who do just asinine things. If I'm going to defend their rights, I'm exercising my own to bitch a bit about fake dirt. Keeneland, built on hallowed blue grass, next to one of the shrines of American horse racing, Calumet Farms, killed me when they installed a fake dirt track made of a little bit of this and that. As much as I hate what the steroid era did to the record book in baseball, I hate how 70 years of dirt track statistics and tradition were tossed out the window. I digress, but I retain the right to not play Keeneland because I just don't like what they did. This irrational position is not even consistent in the Turk's world because I just accept Woodbine and Santa Anita, and Del Mar and Hollywood, but I have a real issue with this cathedral being desecrated like this.

I was happy to be asked to write a "Handicappers Corner" article this week for the Keeneland run Blue Grass Stakes. I set aside my bias and did my best to explain my handicapping style to an audience of people passionate about horse racing. Thorofan is a grassroots organization that started as a small seed and is now a sapling focusing on the racing fan. I wish them the best as they try to create a place for casual fans to find social interaction with like minded folks. I'd like to thank Geno from Equispace. Geno is one hard working cat this time of the year yet he finds time to support and advertise and grow a sport that many people in our society just consider dead. Hat's off to Geno.

Race 9 at KEE: Post Time 5:30 ET; The Blue Grass Stakes; 1 1/8 Miles on polytrack for 3 YOs.



The handicap for Thorofan was written as a bit of a tutorial. For the hardcore gambling types that visit this blog it's important to point out that the method employed in this handicap is sound. You can be sound and correct and still wrong. I would never tell someone that I'm OK with a handicap if I wasn't so I stand firmly behind the handicap. That said, it's a surface I struggle with and it's a track I don't handicap much, so I'm going to have some fun with this race and then leave quickly!

Check for scratches and changes. I've marked up the Past Performances and as is my general custom, I handicapped without morning lines or reading and pre race news articles. I was only surprised when I did look at the Morning Lines that Odysseus was 7-2 and slightly behind 3-1 Pleasant Prince. It was also interesting to read the comments from the connections of Odysseus why they choose the Blue Grass instead of the Arkansas Derby. Either way, I like to handicap the way I see the information fall off the past performances and not put too much stock into what is written. I found over the years I was shading my handicaps sometimes on the quotes in an article. Right or wrong, I do my best to block it out.

At first blush this is a pretty similar group of runners; 7 of the 9 have only I win, 4 last race winners, no winners at the distance, 94 is the best synthetic BSF of the bunch and only one synthetic win in the whole field. As a handicapper I believe you have to take a stand with your base handicap and then you can shade a little bit with part wheels or boxing in the bet construction, moving horses up and down the order of finish.

I’m backing Pleasant Prince to win. Trainer Wesley Ward had three good GP efforts this spring losing to Ice Box twice by a nose and a ½ length. Owns the race best career BSF at 99. Training nicely with a smoking hot :58 2/5ths seconds at 5 furlongs. J. Leparoux is up, and Ward/Leparoux have won 30% of their races together over the past year. Expect him to sit in a stalking position until the ¼ pole.

Odysseus had a dominating 15 length romp in late February and then beat Schoolyard Dreams by a nose in thrilling stretch drive at the Tampa Derby Grade III. Three wins for Trainer Albertrani who wins 28% of his Graded Stakes but only started three runners on synthetics over the past year, all losers. Is 4 for 4 lifetime in the money with three wins. Has shown a tendency to churn some fast early fractions and he has the guts to rally and re-rally if need be. Much to like here.

I want to make a case for Interactif to win, but I can’t see it in the base handicap. A closer loser to Sidney’s Candy in the Grade II San Felipe at SA in mid March and loser by a nose on the turf in February at GP. He’ll make a top of the stretch move and I think will find the top four.

It’s important to point out some information that handicapper and all around horse guy Jeremy Plonk put together which you can find at the excellent Keeneland website. 43% of Keeneland springs meeting winners during the polytrack era come in off a dirt effort. I think the fact that 49% of the spring meet winners have never made a poly start and 63% of spring meet winners made only one previous poly start is very compelling. Information gathered. File it away and look at the handicap through the prism of all the information. Groovy stuff, let’s keep going.

Make Music For Me comes in for his 2nd race off a 45-180 day layoff, something Trainer Barbra has tried three times in the last year, losing all. Making a turf/synthetic switch after a strong turf win at 1 mile in early March at SA. Lost three times as a 2 YO to Looking at Lucky. Training at 6 furlongs at HOL sharply. One of two Bernstein colts in the field. Mike Smith up for his fourth race with the colt.

Aikenite and First Dude, round out the dividing line of strong Top Four Contenders. Aikenite has run a good Show finish at KEE losing by a ½ length in a Grade I event as a 2 YO. His lone victory was his first race in August in Saratoga. He’s a quality colt but where he stands in the 3 YO group is hard to say. Garret Gomez takes the mount.

First Dude, a Dale Romans trained horse with R. Dominguez up, is a work in progress, only one win in January that he followed up with two decent efforts at GP, including 5th in the Florida Derby. He has the potential to hit Show or 4th and any better is hard to fathom at this point in his career. Another Dale Roman’s conditioned horse is Paddy o’ Prado. Paddy o’ Prado comes in off a very nice Grade III turf win at 1 1/8 miles and has been training sharply over the Keeneland main track. Ken Desormeaux is on the mount for the first time.

So what to make of it?

I built a rather chalky superfecta for the Thorofan article. I presented it with two possible angles, one conservative and they other a smidge bit more aggressive.





I mentionioned, albeit briefly, the concept of defensive betting. I use to do more of it, but I still do when I think a bet that I construct has a high risk for a medium or low reward. I keep the defensive bets small, perhaps 1/4 of my total bet amount. For example, I'm prepared to spend $60 dollars today. I'll take $6 and bet 3 $2 Win bets, perhaps a few >6-1 longshots with potential OR three straight exactas that have a bit of value associated with them. The downside, and why I don't do this much, is if the base handicap hits then the medium reward payout is diluted by the defensive bets. Catch-22.

I'm going to watch the tote board and then consider three straight exactas with one of my top three in the top spot and most likely Stately Victor or Paddy O' Prado in the Place spot.

The Turk would be remiss to not remember Personal Ensign who passed away this week of natural causes. A beloved horse with race fans, she would have been massive in a different era when horse racing heroes were revered. She's revered in our shrinking community and we wish her peace.



Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day January 23, 2010; The Holy Bull Stakes and the Late Pick Three at Gulfstream Park

The winner of today's Holy Bull Stakes is the fine looking son of Unbridled's Song, Winslow Homer. The Turk was lucky today, inserting Winslow Homer in the Late Pick Three and also betting him to Win, and lucky in the fact that he wasn't the horse I expected to win or place, but I guess that's why they race 'em. Let's get after it!

Gulfstream Park Race 7 - Race 8 - Race 9 The Holy Bull Stakes Grade III



Race 7 was the start of the late Pick Three. I was committed to spending no more then $18 on the bet and I was committed to some combination of 3 X 3 X 2. The opening leg, a MSW 45K concerned me as so few of these horses had ever raced before. With no regard for the tote board or the morning line I whittled the starters down to three horses, with what I thought would be the winner, Bushwhacked/6 and I played Mine N Gems/4 and Six Clicks/5 as well and Mine N Gems, the bettor's choice and the morning line second choice, won by 3/4 of a length and Bushwacked missed Place by a nose.

Race 8 came and I was still alive. Pre Race I intended to put three horses into the mix but I inserted a third horse into Race 9 and I had to subtract somebody. I went with Musical Romance/9 and Take a Vow/3 and I late tossed Miss Olivia Rae/7. Musical Romance won by 1/2 a length and Miss Olivia Rae took show by a neck with Take a Vow never entering the fray. No matter, I was alive after two and I survived the 2 horse leg of the journey.

Before the Holy Bull, I still was unsettled by the fine field and the number of horses in my A and B group that I thought were capable of winning. I made a decision to bet the Superfecta using my base handicap which didn't work out because of the failure of Aikenite to deliver a top four finish. It happens. I did look at the tote board before the race and place three $4 dollar win bets, with one of them being Homer Winslow who I thought would go off at a slightly higher price then he did, but I figured if one of them hit the win the bet would be no worse then a push. It was a bit better then a push. The best move I made was inserting Winslow Homer into the Pick Three. I was torn between William's Kitten and Homer Winslow, who I rated both equally pre race. I went with the gut and took the Unbridled's Song and it paid off to the tune of $128.

Good stuff for a Saturday. Congrats to both Friesen Fire and General Quarters, both looked very good in the LA Handicap.

Have Fun, Turk Out! Next week we'll be back for the Sunshine Millions. Yeah!

The Nomination Is In: January 23, 2010 Gulfstream Park; The Holy Bull Grade III and the Late Pick Three

Mighty Holy Bull loans his legendary name and memory to today's featured race, the Grade III 1 Mile Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Holy Bull is now remembered for his ability as a sire, but the Turk likes to remember him as a horse who was a failure on the his quest to win the Kentucky Derby as a favorite, but had connections who had enough foresight to rethink their horse's 3 YO campaign and turn him into a force to be feared. A terrible breakdown in the 1995 Donn Handicap luckily did not end his life and we remember his legacy. A certain horse named Barbaro started his 3 Yo campaign here. The fantastic print shown above can be found at Riverwind Gallery. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park; The Holy Bull Stakes Grade III; 1 Mile on Fast Dirt for 3 YOs.



Aikenite is a Pletcher trainee with J. Velazquez up. A son of a top sprinter sire, Yes It's True, his ability to stretch out is yet to be determined but we like the possibilities. This is his fourth crack at a graded stakes win and his first race since early November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Training nicely including a :59 4/5ths bullet with 19 runners at 5f this week.

Jackson Bend goes for Trainer Zito for the first time today, and he has five wins on fast dirt already. Zito has only a 5% win rate in Graded Stakes over rolling year and hopefully he'll improve on that with a horse that breaks from the far outside and has good quality. Jock J. Rose replaces J. Sanchez in the irons. Training very sharply since late December.

So The Turk thinks this is a two horse race for the win but there is a nice level of quality in this race and someone who finishes out of the money will still be a very good horse. I see a stratification layer just below the top two that includes Homeboykris, William's Kitten and Winslow Homer.

R. Dutrow's runner Homeboykris has something to prove after a dreadful Remsen in late November but is the 1 mile Grade I Champagne winner from a six horse field. Prado is still top shelf and is up. A. Dutrow's Winslow Homer is from Unbridled's Song and has two straight wins in lesser quality company, including a big loose on the lead effort in the slop. William's Kitten is a Maker trainee with Eclipse Award winning Leparoux up and has been burning the barn down in works the last two weeks.

Pace will bring Piscitelli possibly into Show or 4th and Thank U Philippe can't be discounted too low either. Whoever wins this race will be a quality horse and a few of the losers will fly under the wire and still be horses to watch. Good stuff in an era of small fields and questionable quality.

I thought we'd take a run at the Pick Three as well that starts in Race 7, a 7 furlong dirt affair, MSW 45K. #7 Liquidity Event was scratched by Trainer Zito this morning. I'm going to back 3 horses, Mine N Gems/4, Six Chicks/5 and Bushwhacked/6. If I was singling I'd take Bushwhacked, a Sheppard Trainee for Augustin Stables with Leparoux up. What a team that is.

Race 8 is a 1 1/16 firm turf ALW N1X for F&M. Again I have three horses at the time of writing I'm backing, Take a Vow/3, Miss Olivia Rae/7 and Musical Romance/9. Take a Vow would be my single, A Janney bred and owned runner for Trainer McGaughey comes in off a 7f turf maiden win.

The Turk is right now looking at a 3 X 3 X 2 pick three bet for $18 dollars. The fields are big enough with no heavy duty chalk to justify the slightly bloated bet of mine.

As always, check the weather and the scratches and tote board board before you jump into the fray.

Have Fun, Turk Out!