Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 19, 2011; The Oaklawn Park Late Pick Four including the Azeri and the Rebel

That smilin' cowboy to the left is Larry Jones, the winning conditioner of Havre de Grace, the 2011 winner of the Grade III Azeri at Oaklawn Park on Rebel Stakes day.

The Turk netted $140 bucks but came up just short of his targeted Pick Four bet when the last leg, a Maiden Claimer, didn't go our way. A Superfecta bet on the Azeri did well for me, as I didn't think it was too complicated to have Havre de Grace and Blind Luck 1-2 and then find a few others for Show and 4th. My Superfecta bet in the Rebel came up just off, as Sartaoga Red and JW Blue snuck in ahead of lumbering duo Sway Away and JP's Gusto. Sway Away was a real disappointment and I'm curious where he turns next, while J.P's Gusto is about what I thought he was. The race was very different then what I handicapped with the scratch of Elite Alex and then the late scratch of Alternation, but no excuses.

What do we make of The Factor. I've loved him this spring but perhaps wrongly pigeonholed him as a sprinter/miler. The gallop out showed me he's got 1 1/8 no problem and 1 1/4 may be within reach.

Oaklawn Park Pick Four March 19, 2011







We've finally reached the most interesting part of Derby prep time. The serious runners of the 3 YO crop will be making plans for their final preps and horses we may be discounting at this point will slip under the radar. What a great sport, ain't life grand?

Have fun this week, be safe, show your friends and family you love them. The Turk gave up bourbon and cigars for lent so I'm overcompensating with coffee to keep my cheery disposition intact.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 19, 2011: The Oaklawn Park Pick 4 including the Rebel and the Azeri

Pictured to the left is a scene that never gets old, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace trading strides to the wire. Havre de Grace, in the Fox Hill Farm red and white silks is now trained by one of The Turk's favorite trainers, Larry Jones, and all seems right in the equine world again. Blind Luck has had two unimpressive efforts as the heavy chalk on Santa Anita dirt, but she brings an impressive 17 of 17 in the money record into today's Azeri at Oaklawn Park and these two four year olds most likely will stage another battle, with only a few others that may challenge them.

Let's get after it!

Oaklawn Park Race 8-9-10-11: the Late Pick 4 including the Grade III Azeri and Grade II Rebel



As always, start your day with a quality past performance. My choice is formulator Deluxe from Daily Race Form that allow me to tailor the information I print, like having split times and workouts embedded in the running lines, and delete the things I don't want, like morning lines. Use whatever makes you comfortable: The Turk endorses no particular product (although I was asked, the only real endorsement deal I have is a product that is uniquely classy and artistic) Also check the track website, the scratches and changes and the weather.

In the opening leg of the late Pick Three and Pick Four we have an Optional Claiming Race with a price tag of $40,000 on two of the runners, run at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares 4 years old and up. While not high on Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, he's clipping along at 19% at this meet and his Glowing Report is my chalk. The filly runs for the fourth time in 2011, in the money in all of them. She'll be challenged by Eve Giselle, unraced in 13 months, Bikini Bella who runs with a price on her head and Bell's Shoes. I may flip Eve Giselle and Bikini Bella but my top four is set.

Race 9 is the Azeri and will be challenged by a field of seven. Blind Luck has run twice since running a solid final quarter to Place as the chalk behind Unrivaled Belle in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She's Placed twice as a heavy chalk at Santa Anita this spring in two Grade II's with small fields and no pace. The last one, The La Canada is worth looking at for her closing kick.

The La Canada Grade II 13 February at 1 1/8 miles



A paceless, four horse graded workout. Yawn. Gomez gets the mount for trainer Hollendorfer. I'm most impressed by 17 of 17 in the money; 4 wins on fast dirt, 4 fake dirt wins, 4 wins at this distance and a win at OP, $2.45 MM in earnings for an $10,000 foal. Awesome. I wish her luck and she could easily win today, but I'm backing Havre de Grace. First time back since the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but training very well. Perhaps its too much too soon but Trainer Jones wins 38% of his first time with trainer runners and 42% of his 61-180 day layoffs and she ran very well off a longer break before. It's a flip of a coin.



Spacy Tracy and Absintheminded seem to have the best chance to send the chalks to the curb. Spacy Tracy is Anthony Dutrow trained and looks to turn the table on his previous charge, Havre de Grace. Two very sharp 4F in :47 and change makes the six year of Mare look attractive. Absintheminded, with Borel up for Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is in very good current form and makes the third start of her current form cycle. She bombed in three graded stakes races in 2010 before bouncing back against softer competition. Consider defensive bets at the right price!

In Race 10 we have the Grade II Rebel. Let's look back first at two key races, The Southwest at OP and The San Vincente at SA.

The Southwest Stakes Grade III 21 February at 1 Mile



6 wide at the top of the stretch, Archarcharch was in good position and drew away but Elite Alex had a lousy trip and was coming on and Picko's Pride had a good final 1/4 mile too, while J.P.'s Gusto was game and needed a few more hops (or an extra 1/16 of a mile).

The San Vincente Grade II 20 February at 7 furlongs



The two races are similar in that I like the losers a bit more than the winners, with no disrespect to Archarcharch or The Factor intended.

My chalk, albeit tepid, is Sway Away. I like the way he grinded through the smoking fast opening fractions and rallied and he wins with 30 more feet. I'm a big fan of The Factor already, and maybe I'm wrong, but he seems more like a dominant one turn sprinter. We'll find out. His sire, War Front was a grade II winning sprinter and its hard, not impossible, to outrun your DNA.

Elite Alex was six wide and was very impressive coming up the lane in the Southwest. J.P's Gusto had a better trip and I reckon should have beaten Archarcharch but didn't. Both are formidable. Picko's Pride took a big run up the lane too but let's keep him in perspective. The Factor and Archarcharch will be competitive and I also expect a good run from a Distorted Humor son, Alternation. Training very sharply and comes in off a nice N3L at 1 1/16 miles at OP. Watch the tote!

If your inclined to such things, the pick four ends with a 6f sprint maiden claimer with a $15,000 price tag with nine runners. I've narrowed it down to four, with the 7-3-6-8 my picks. Semiconductor/7 lost by a length in late February at OP at 6f but ran well. Thundersong/3 is the class of the bunch. Who knows but have some fun with it but keep it real: You can't cover everyone.

I'm looking forward to a good day of watching and reasonable betting. The day seems chalky to me and its going to take someone stretching themselves to make the payouts more than pedestrian. Keep the multirace bets within reason as its never fun to spend $100 bucks to make $50.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: March 13, 2010: The Honeybee, The Rebel and the Oaklawn Park Pick 4

The weeks are ticking by as Winter has but 14 days left before Spring arrives. The Arkansas Derby is five weeks from today and The Rebel being run today at Oaklawn Park should go a long way towards identifying the potential to reach top condition for the Kentucky Derby. Speaking of the Kentucky Derby, that dapper gentleman to left should need no introduction, relevant again after a few lean years, the winner of the Kentucky Derby four times, 13 Triple Crown race victories overall and 18 Breeders' Cup races, Mr. D. Wayne Lukas who saddles Dublin and Decelerator today, the Turk's Chalk in The Rebel and The Honeybee. Let's get after it!

Oaklawn Park Race 8-9-10-11 Pick Four Including the Grade III Honeybee and the Grade II Rebel.



As always check the weather and the scratches and changes before finalizing your bets. Know the track condition and the potential track condition at the time the races go to the gate.

The Pick Four begins with Race 8, The Honeybee, that goes to Post at 5:42 Eastern Time. The field of nine contains some real quality centered around my choice of chalk, Decelerator. Winner of her last race and the loser by a nose before that, two solid back to back OP efforts with near equal 82 BSF. Nice work since the last outing a month ago and a new rider, Nakatani up. Decelerator is carrying 122 pounds, the heaviest of the combatants.

Making her first race in 2010, Beautician returns after an abysmal effort at Hollywood park in late December. Blinkers off today for trainer McPeek and he gives the mount to R. Albarado who has a win and a 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. A great 2 YO campaign, she shares a sire with Decelerator, Dehere.

No Such Word breaks from gate for Trainer Cindy Jones, looking for her first Graded Stakes win, but she sure knows how to find the winners circle and deserves to share some of the credit with her husband Larry for the successful trainer stats he put together over time. Comes in off an N1X win in the slop at OP on Valentines Day and is on the rise but has quite a class jump to hurtle.

For the Pick Four I'm leaning towards only my two two but may stretch to all three with my last toss Tiz Miz Sue.

For the Rebel, as I said I like Dublin to win in this race and I think he needs to win with a bit of conviction as well. About the only thing not to like from the Southwest Stakes was the slow final 1/4 mile and we will see what the extra 1/16 does for him. Two nice bullets since then, the fastest work of 149 other runners on those days combined. Nakatani is up here as well.

The fashionable Kentucky Derby pick for many weeks finally makes his 2010 debut, Looking at Lucky. First time on dirt for the Baffert runner, but the Hall of Fame Trainer does win 25% of his dirt races. Blinkers on today. His work pattern from SA does not show an improving progression but a minor factor for the Smart Strike son is capable of 1 1/16 mile wins, as he has two of the only three in the race. If he were to win, a big arrow will go up on his stock but the reality is he needs to have a solid race, be in the top three and set himself up for his last prep before the Kentucky Derby as his $1.2 MM in earnings will go a long way to securing his inclusion.

An interesting group that I'm torn on sits just below these two horses: Cardiff Giant appears to be no better then a Grade III contender and is winless on dirt but did have a good effort in the Southwest. Noble's Promise makes his first start on dirt and Uh Oh Bango owns the lifetime best BSF of the field lifetime and at this distance. I'm only including my top two in the Pick Four.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: March 14, 2009 - The Rebel, Grade II

The race that many people will be watching today is The Rebel, and the colt that people will be watching is none other than Old Fashioned. Trainer Larry Jones marches some fine three year olds towards the first Saturday in May, and he's ramping his charges up slowly, trying to do right by them. I wonder if he ever considered shipping to the Louisiana Derby, but he knows more about his business then I do. The Rebel was a Grade III last year, and pictured is a horse that the Turk isn't too familar with, Sierra Sunset, winner of the 2008 Rebel Stakes, with Christopher Emigh up. Photo by Danny Johnston.

Race 10: Oaklawn Park: The Rebel, Grade II: 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.



I think Old Fashioned should and will win this race. When I have that type of certainty in my bones I like to build straight tickets from my ratings board that will include some value. I'll be watching the tote as always in the hunt for value, but I'm intrigued by the lightly raced Hamazing Destiny as a possible ticket gate crasher. Wise Kid and Silver City look primed to contend. This is a tough race for Old Fashioned, as he can only satisfy expectations by winning.

The Turk has been typing way too much the past few hours. It's time to watch more ponies prance.