The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Saratoga Race Track. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saratoga Race Track. Show all posts
She Feels Pretty/Photo Credit: Courtney Snow/Past the Wire
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.
$5.50 for a DRF Formulator Card at Saratoga, a price increase from DRF over the past year, after to be fair, the price was held constant for a very many years. Still, for the monopolies that hold a tight reign over the information in this sport, it does seem excessive. I say all that because it's hard to make a return on investment capital plus the high cost of information when you get a six horse Diana where the morning line favorite is 1-1, 50% of the odds. That is, unless we can make a case for her to finish in Place, or worse. That favorite is She Feels Pretty: 10-10 lifetime in the money, 2 starts at SAR, both in the money, the last on yielding turf at 1 3/16th was a career best 100 Beyer. 2 of 2 at the distance. Lot's to like but 50%, this is less of a handicapping exercise and more of a betting opportunity.
Let's get after it.
The Diana G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Inner Turf for F&M 4 YO and Up
Most of the other runners competed in either the Gamely G1, Just a Game G1 or Jenny Wiley G1. Let's take a peak.
12 April 2025 KEE: The Jenny Wiley G1: 1 1/16 Miles on Good Turf.
6 June 2025 SAR: Just a Game G1: 1 Mile on yielding turf.
26 May 2025 SA: The Gamely G1: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
Finally, She Feels Pretty.
6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1: 1 3/16ths on yielding turf.
A different horse from a different time, but Lael Stables silks with a #8 Saddle Cloth always makes me think of this guy, the horse that made me start blogging, Barbaro. Hard to believe next year will be 20 years!
Barbero: Photo Eliot Schechter/epa/corbis
So what are we going to do with all this? As I said, we have to bet against the heavy favorite. Horse racing code compels me, and even at a more realistic 2-1, 33% odds, there is still a 6 in 10 chance she loses.
I like late closers Dynamic Pricing (Ire) or Lady Claypoole (Ire) to get her late. The scratch of Be Your Best (Ire) however changes the race pace dynamics greatly, as his early pressure will be missing and I think that leaves Choisya (GB) and Excellent Truth (Ire) to press She Feels Pretty early. Choisya's last outing at SAR was a disaster on yielding turf. You can find Track Condition and Scratches and Changes Here. Current inner turf condition is yielding and its raining.
3-4-5 OVER 1-3-4-5, a $2 Exacta for $18 seems a bit pricy. 3-4-5 Boxed is $12. I'll be thinking down these lines later today.
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.
I've been handicapping since the mid 1980's and I've posted over 725 blog entries here since 2008. What I am not is a horse racing insider or someone who even remotely gets caught up in the news or the personalities. I don't want racing coverage with the sound up (except the race calls) and I don't read about the races in advance. I handicap off of what I see on DRF Formulator PPs (not sponsored!) and from Youtube race videos. These days I'm much more likely to be making theoretical bet, as I seldom gamble anymore. I don't do this for monetization, and quite frankly, I'm not doing it for views, as very few people actually read long form blogs anymore in the horse racing space. Take it for what it's worth, but when I'm handicapping consistently I have a positive ROI.
Work takes up a lot of my time. When I retire, my plan is to take the blog in new directions, data scrapping from API feeds to improve my analysis and product. For now, I blog to stay fresh, as handicapping is a muscle that needs exercise.
I generally like to handicap 4 YO and Up going greater than 1 mile. Beggars can't be choosers these days, with fewer tracks and less races. I wasn't even sure why Saratoga was running this weekend and I understand they have a 4 July Holiday mini-meet before the main meet opens late next week. Fine with me, it fills a gap where I would have been handicapping Arlington in the past, or even Belmont.
I didn't have a lot of video I wanted to look at. I'm frustrated with finding Churchill Downs video again.
Hall of Fame G2, SAR, 1 Mile Firm Inner Turf. 2 August 2024. Neat.
Poker G3, SAR 1 Mile Firm Inner Turf. 5 June 2025. Intellect (FR), Donegal Momentum
5 July 2025: The Kelso G3; 1 Mile on Inner Turf at SAR for 4 YO and Up
I'm leaning towards 2-8 OVER 1-2-4-5-6-8, a $2 Bet for $20. Feels like I'm going to do a possible magic trick of turning $20 into $0 dollars, but we'll see. I always reserve the right to adjust based on the tote board, which I think every horse player should reassess, as this is about informed risk and value more than being "right".
Preservationist with J. Alvarado up; Photo by Coglianese/Joe Labozzetta
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, rapidly completing our tenth full year of providing horse racing analysis and handicapping advice to readers who never asked for it. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for asking me to share my thoughts with you today on The Woodward, a Grade 1 dirt affair over what should be a fast Saratoga course.
Readers of the Turk will note that I have not been very active in horse racing this year. Quite frankly, I considered quitting The Turk and leaving the sport entirely. I'm tired of the constant ways that this sport finds to turn off the fans, the bettors, the lack of any real vision, the criticism of anyone that offers any real vision, and then the tracks themselves: tone deaf, reactionary, caring only about themselves. Musicians playing on the deck of the Titanic, except the Titanic sank years ago. This is not the grand boat it was. Look at the empty seats behind Preservationist at Belmont as he enters the win circle. Visit tracks most days of the week, you already know what I mean. The Turk is talking to the choir, and its a small choir. I love the sport, as anyone reading this does to. Try as much as I have tried in 10 plus years and I have only been able to grow a few new casual fans of the game. It's disheartening. I still have my loves: Kentucky Downs is opening for its short meet (5 dates beginning tomorrow through September 12), Arlington is still a palace and sooner or later CDI will let it go for someone to try to make it right, and the horses themselves, the older vets grinding out a living. Try as humans do to screw things up, the horses are why I won't quit the sport.
Let's get after this handicap!
Let's start with a bit of light video review.
The Whitney G1 SAR: 1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 3
The Alydar $100K SAR ; 1 1/8 Miles/Fast Dirt/August 2
The Gold Cup (Not at Hollywood thanks CDI) Santa Anita: 1 1/4/Fast Dirt/27 May
The Pacific Classic G1 Del Mar; 1 1/4 Miles/Fast Dirt/17 August
I'm pretty torn on this race. There is not a ton of early speed, perhaps enough for the late chargers to take an aim at, but the pace is a bit foggy to me. I'll assume that Mr. Buff, Tom's d'Etat, and Preservationist will strike the lead early. By my base handicap you have already surmised that Yosida (Jpn) and Preservationist have the best opportunity to be there at the wire, with Tom's d'Etat, Vino Rosso, Mongolian Groom and Mr. Buff moving in different direction in the last 1/8 of a mile, some advancing some retreating. I think I just summed up every horse race that's ever been run over grass! My apologies.
I think I ultimately see Yosida's class as what separates him from everyone else by a head or so. The 5 YO $2.3 MM earner is winless in 2019 but possibly just getting going after the grueling Dubai trip, with a very solid Whitney run. 2 of 2 in the money at Saratoga including last year's Woodward. 1 win in 5 dirt starts
Preservationist is my kinda horse, 6 YO, out of Arch, with only 9 career starts. 5 wins in last 7 starts, 5 of 6 in the money over fast dirt. Trainer Jerkens is 29% in Graded Stakes over past rolling year, 21% over Dirt and 24% routes. Jerkens/Junior Alvarado 25% winners in 16 SAR starts.
Out of my group of 4 possible Place/Show horses, I'm intrigued by Mongolian Groom. The numbers tell me I shouldn't be: 0 wins in 8 dirt starts, shipping from California, no SAR starts, no wins at distance, 2 wins in last 14 starts, $370,000 earnings in 14 starts, Trainer Ganbat 0% Graded Stakes in 10 tries rolling year. Why did they ship? Current form off Grade 2 San Diego and 2 weeks back Pacific Classic not too shabby. I like the taking a swing approach. It's not like they shipped to a County Fair, they shipped to Saratoga. I dig the effort.
Vino Rosso, the 4 YO Curlin, has got the class and 2 straight triple digit Beyers, including a saavy Pletcher move to put him in a weak Gold Cup. Ran a solid Whitney. Blinkers off, something Pletcher wins 24% of the time in 25 tries. Training good. Nothing to dislike, but this is gambling and The Turk is unlike a public/paid handicapper who doesn't want to look bad and just tells you what he thinks. Turk thinks Vino Rosso is an OK horse, $1.3 MM earner who is winless at SAR and incredibly has never Placed.
Tom's d' Etat is also very interesting and I consider him a good priced win candidate. 4-1 ML, I think that goes towards 3-1 but I'd like to see it head towards 5-1 to get really excited. 3 of 3 at SAR, 8 of 8 in the money on fast dirt and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance. The 6 year old was a $100,000 Smart Stike who only has 13 starts. 5 of last 7 in the money with 3 wins.
I'm thinking exacta's will be my play and I'm watching the price on Tom d'Etat to see if I include him in win portions of the bet.
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today reading the $750 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.
This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007. Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate. This is going to be an excellent betting race. There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.
It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today. I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win. Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart. Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018
Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.
Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts. One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt.
Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite. In his last ten races he's one three times: an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017. The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park. Woof! He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131. Here he was in good form at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.
Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well. An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.
Irap: WSVX FM
The nearly $3.0 Million dollar earning Gunnevera will be coming late, but will he have enough tactical speed early on to be well positioned. That's something the handicapper must consider. I'm betting against him to win and I'm not even sure I'll cover him to Place (and yes, that should all but assure he does win!)
I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti. I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all).
Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.
West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.
If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.
Razorback Handicap G3: 1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed
Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty. Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me.
Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out. While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance. 1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles. 5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.
While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta.
In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1 at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year. I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.
Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence. Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K.
Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs. Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).
I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line. Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.
I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw. I tossed Imperative as I think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes. I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts. I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.
So what to do with all this?
I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets. I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward. My early thoughts are:
$1 Exacta: 10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7 $15
That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny RidgeOver Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)
That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea. This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap. Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.
Promises Fulfilled: Photo Horse Racing Nation @HR_Nation
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, Post Race Edition.
As I've been telling my readers, I'm a judicious bettor. I'm a prolific handicapper, but the compulsion to bet doesn't exist in me. I handicapped Races 6-12 at Saratoga today and only played a Pick 3 and one vertical bet, The H. Allen Jerkens.
I spent some pretty solid time analyzing this race, especially a breakdown of video on all the contenders and some of the late speed. You'll find that blog post here.
I swung for the fences on my primary bet. In a rare WIN-PLACE bet I wagered $10 for $20 total on the turf to dirt switchover for Team Zayat/Pletcher and J. Velazquez, Gidu (Ire). A $2 Win bet would have paid $21.60 and my $10 Win Bet would have paid $108. I liked the pre race work on the dirt, especially the 4F 1st of 60 :47 3/5ths. I don't mind taking a swing like that and missing. I only need to hit one out of 5 to break even.
My defensive position was an Exacta. I had determined to single the likely winner, Promises Fulfilled. I really believed Engage or Firenze Fire would finish in Place and the bet would pay little. I noted the Will Pays (on $2 Bet) just before Post Time:
#1 Promised Fulfilled with
#2 Telekinesis $48
#3 Engage $20
#5 Seven Trumpets $70
#6 Gidu (Ire) $74
#7 Still Having Fun $42
#8 Firenze Fire $16
#4 Gemeaminit and #9 Funny Duck I tossed and didn't even consider them.
With the likely winning bet paying between $16 and $20 I limited my defensive bet to $8.
$2 Exacta #1 OVER 2,5,6,7 for $8 excluding #3 Engage and #8 Firenze Fire. I wanted value in this defensive bet as I was wagering $28 total dollars and wanted to at least cover the risky Win Place Bet on Gidu (Ire). I could have wagered $12 and included Engage and Firenze Fire but I just don't think that's smart money management (although I'm guilty of it at times)
I said Pre Race that Seven Trumpets had a solid 109 Late Pace Timeform and would be moving forward at the end. I also showed some nice racing by Seven Trumpets late in the Dwyer, highlighting the exceptionally savvy riding of Robbie Albarado. It was that work that paid off, putting the 32-1 win odds shot in the place spot and winning $82 on an $8 ticket.
You can find the full DRF Race Chart at this link.
I've said it for years and I'll continue to say it: You don't need to bet every race. Do your homework, bet when you feel like you have a knowledge edge.
I slept on the 8-9-10 pick 3 at Saratoga and thought I'd spend some time this morning building out my final thoughts and creating bet strategy.
The Turk isn't a high volume gambler. There was a time in my life when I had lots of time to handicap, build bets and just watch the results. I did that for years while I worked a job that had me sitting in a room watching computers for 12 hours at a time. I did my job, did it well, but always had the race form nearby for a few minutes of handicapping. The day would begin with reading the results in the sports page, an era when you could easily find limited results on the full card in each daily paper. Over the years, I've become a selective player, mostly vertical betting of stakes races. I gamble judiciously. I realize when I gamble my edge goes away when the public has more information or is just as knowledgeable about the runners as I am. Chalks are chalkier and wise guy horses mostly represent a way to look smart on Twitter before the race is actually run. How to find an edge in stakes? Video and Trip Handicapping has become a bigger tool for me over the years. I can glean information from the PPs but sometimes just slowing down to watch a two minute race in snapshots at points of call can really draw a picture.
Let's take a closer look at the Grade 2 Lake Placid 1 1/8 Miles on SOFT Mellon Turf.
G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational: 1 1/4 Miles Firm BEL turf:
Let's pay attention to:
Thewayiam (Fr): Light Blue/Pink Diamond #8 Pink Cloth with Black number
Capla Temptress (Ire): Forest green, Crimson Triangular panel: #4 Yellow (Gold) cloth with black numbers.
Significant Form: Dark Green, Light Green Sash, White: #1 Red with White Number
Top of Stretch- Belmont Oaks Invitational
Athena makes her move
Deep Stretch-no excuses #8/#1
Tight Quarters after Athena on the wire
Hard to make excuses for Significant Form in particular. While there may have been a bit of a bump, I. Ortiz was uncovered and lacked response. Her Timeform late pace value of 79 seems valid here. The cutback of 1/8 of a mile and class drop can't hurt.
I like how Thewayiam (Fr) competed for positioning. 9 of 11 in the money. I'm considering she might like the turf softer than others here.
Mott's Capla Temptress (Ire) looked the part of a 59 Early/102 late pace form. I really liked her late and with a ML of 6-1 I think she's a great Place candidate in the Exacta.
G3 Lake George: 1 1/16 on SAR outer (Mellon) Turf
Daddy is a Legend: Florescent orange/Chartreuse Sash, Hot; #3 Horse Blue with White Number
Andina Del Sur: Orange, Green Sleeves with Two White Hoops; #5 Green with White Number
One picture, whole story. Andina Del Sur tracked along at at the top of the stretch found herself needing to split horses. The gap seemed there, she did not and she stayed on flat in the pack. Daddy is a Legend? With Franco up, the Red Sea parted, the rail was uncontested and she was gone with a pedestrian:29.25 final 5/16ths.
G3 Wonder Again Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Bel Inner Turf
Andina Del Sur: Orange, Green Sleeves with Two White Hoops; #6 Black Cloth with Gold Number
Daddy is a Legend: Florescent orange/Chartreuse Sash, Hot; #8 Pink Cloth with Black number
Significant Form: Dark Green, Light Green Sash, White: #5 Green with White Number
1/2 Mile Pole
Wonder Again-Wire 3/5 sec gap
Paceless really: The winner was 3 1/2 lengths in front at 1/2 mile and the three we are paying attention to are stretched out in the next three spots over 7-8 lengths. At the wire, same line, a bit more bunched, same order.
G2 Appalachian: 1 Mile over yielding turf at KEE
Rushing Fall Neon green, Purple Ball, Green 'E'; #2 White Cloth with Black Number.
Thewayiam (Fr) #9
Daddy is a Legend #1
Turn to 1 Mile Finish
Daddy is a Legend cracks under the drive of Rushing Fall. Thewayiam (Fr) really comes at Rushing Fall in last 1/16 of a mile. Have we seen anything to believe that Daddy is a Legend will want more ground? This was listed as yielding. Thewayiam seemed to like the footing as did Rushing Fall. Small sample size with three year olds. Penn Oaks $200K; 1 Mile on Firm Turf
Thewayiam (Fr) making a big run again between 15/16ths and 1 mile.
What to make of this?
I think I'm favoring Thewayiam (Fr) catching Rushing Fall in the last hops. Capla Temptress (Ire) is live at a big price and Significant Form is most likely a step better than Capla Temptress (Ire). Daddy is a Legend seems like a minor prize at best.
As predicted, the rains have taken the 10th race off the turf and the grass is listed as Soft. No scratches yet in the 8th and the 9th. Keep your eye on this NYRA link for up to date information.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. That very handsome colt in Shadwell Stable silks is Takaful, not my top pick but an intriguing runner in today's H. Allen Jerkens, part of this first of several blog posts today related to Saratoga.
Travers Day at Saratoga is one of the great betting days of the year for Graded Stakes fans like me. I know, I lose street cred by proclaiming myself a fan first, degenerate second, but I don't really give a s**t about street cred as a handicapper or bettor. I care about the quality of my work and my handicapping, and I care about adding improvements to my bet construction and overall approach to racetrack investing.
I'm approaching, I'm reaching, I've already arrived at a new place in my life: North of 50, set in my ways, my Little Turk on the doorstep of adulthood and I'm taking stock of the things I love to do. I'm still clinging to my love of the horses and the races. I've really enjoyed writing this blog for the sheer pleasure of it. I'd like to think that people will return to blogs again after the pre-Twitter heyday, but I'm in it for the long haul and I'm in it for me and the people who enjoy these free thoughts.
I'm going to break Travers Day into bite sized nuggets. The first post of the day is the Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 that includes The Personal Ensign, The Ballerina and the newly re minted Kings Bishop, the H. Allen Jerkens, all Grade 1s. I'm usually not down with name changes, but how can you be against putting Mr. Jerkens name on anything?
I'm also unveiling a new chart look this week. it's something I use as I prep to bet as post time approaches to help me identify under and overlays. I've taken the Morning Line into Percentage. Why is the morning Line >100%? Track Takeout and Breakage (losses during rounding, retained by track). I use the POST RACE version of my charts in real time to update post time odds and make my vertical bets (intra race).
Anyway, these three races are pretty chalky. With Race 7-8 at 7F Pace and out of the gate speed plays a huge role and Race 6 with a five horse field and a huge but vulnerable favorite.
Race 6 starts a Pick 3 (6-7-8). Race 7 starts a P3 (7-8-9) as well as a Pick 6 (7-8-9-10-11-12) and Race 8 starts a P3 (8-9-10 and a $1MM P4 8-9-10-11).
I don't know yet what I'm doing. I'm sure it will mirror what you see here but I may try and trim Race 8 down to 4 contenders and recover my value horses in Race 6. This is the mix and match part of gambling that I use these spreadsheets to help me with as post time approaches. I did it with red pen and paper for years but two computer monitors, a tablet a phone and I am becoming much more efficient.
The fear of the unknown track, the bane of every public handicapper who is writing well in advance of post time in order to publish. Yesterday's handicap's were all based on a wet track, sloppy and sealed, and it ended up being listed as Fast. All in all the handicaps weren't too bad.
As I said pre-race, I was focused on the Pick 3, race 8-9-10. The Pick 3 paid $273 on a $2 bet powered by a 14-1 Thundering Sky/1 taking the wire. While I didn't bet, I most likely would not have covered the 1 horse so no harm/no foul.
Why didn't I play it? Summer friends, summer happens, and when you live in snow country, everybody plans everything in a short 12 week period. Yesterday was the Turk Family reunion and that picture is of my father, Papa Turk, as well as Little (not so Little anymore) Turk and me. The family has some serious horse players in it.
This week for me is all about prepping for the Arlington Million Day, which Little Turk and I will be attending. As much as I love Saratoga and the track experience, to me Arlington is my favorite course and it's just too bad it doesn't get an opportunity to host more big stakes action. The track is operated first class and the amenities I care about (lots of windows, fast service, easy to reach and visit paddock, parking, and rest rooms) are really well done.
The Test Grade 1
The Whitney Grade 1
These weren't that complicated. I would have easily had been alive into Race 10. With the track listed as Fast I have no doubt I would have singled Gun Runner as I suggested pre-race. That would have allowed me to cover about 4 horses in Race 10. I liked Thundering Sky cutting back from 1 1/16 Miles as I had handicapped the Dr. James Penny Memorialat Parx and noted he ran a strong opening 7F. Would I have picked the 4 YO Sky Mesa? Who knows.
As I sat down to start studying the Saratoga Late Pick 3 that includes The Test G1, The Whitney G1 and De La Rose 100K, I became enthralled with the Test field And decided this race was deserving of its own blog post.
Why am I enthralled? It's a deep, experienced field: 64 career starts/32 Career wins for the field of 10. There appears to be opportunity to get a very good horse, like for example, Vertical Oak, at a nice price of $9-$12-1.
The field also has a mixture of horses that have run in slop and sealed surfaces, which I'm afraid tomorrow's Spa may turn into. I like the handicapping challenge and the betting opportunity presented here In this Grade 1 Three Year Old Fillies race. This isn't what I would say "my wheelhouse", but let's dive into it as I don't want to cover any more than I need to for my planned betting activity itself, the Race 8-10 Pick Three. Watch the track conditions and Scratches and Changes. The weather is bad headed towards Saratoga.
Before I go to far, I'd like to thank the good people at Feedspot for naming The Turk and the Little Turk one of the Top 60 Horse Racing Blogs, checking us in at 59. It was an honor, deserved or not, and nice recognition in an era where few comment or even read full blogs anymore.
The Victory Ride G3: BEL 6.5f Fast Dirt 9 July
A romp by 4+ lengths for American Gal. Vertical Oak is running nice in the last 1/16th to get up for Place.
Summertime Oaks G2 SA 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt 17 June
Faypien had a nice trip, but the re rally she makes to hold for Win was really solid.
Jersey Girl 150K BEL 6f Fast Dirt 11 June Chalon cruising.
The chalk Vertical Oak pulled up with bad start. Chalon had a soft quarter pace :23.62, and :23.78 soft half, Chalon just dropped the hammer to 1 min 10 sec 6/10ths.
Miss Preakness G3 PIM 6F Fast Dirt 19 May
Vertical Oak in peak form.
Gold Finch PrM $67K 6F Sloppy/Sealed Dirt 29 April
Vertical Oak in a sloppy/sealed Prairie Meadows setting career high Beyer of 94
Race 3 Maiden $75K GP 6F Fast Dirt 11 Jan
Divine Miss Grey breaking her Maiden at Gulfstream. 5 wins in 7 starts in 2017
I could make a case for four horses winning this race. It's not often I have four horses in my possible win spot so when I feel good about four I can either cover all four in my Pick 3 or I can take the best two or three prices and take my chances.
Faybien ships in from Santa Anita for Baffert. I suspect she will be the chalk, the Ghostzapper oozes class. Never raced a wet surface although Tomlinson is at my Mendoza line of 400. 2 wins in 2 starts at the distance. Training exceptionally well including a :59 1/5th 5F bullet. Baffert's numbers are absolutely gaudy: 25% Route/Sprint (cutting back from 1 1/16), 32% 31-60 day layoff, 41% won last start, 30% dirt wins, 34% graded stakes in 135 starts and 32% winner with Bejarano Up.
American Gal left Baffert's barn and is trained by Simon Callaghan. I like Callaghan and Baffert. Callaghan, who had Abel Tasman, lost the talented Quality Road filly and had no qualms calling out a deep pocketed syndicate, "...China Horse Club purchased a 50 percent interest in Abel Tasman from breeder and co-owner Clearsky Farms after her victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Starlet in December. It was intended that she carry China Horse Club colors in the Santa Ysabel. Prior to race day, Callaghan said he confirmed with the silks room that the colors were available.
However, Callaghan said, when Talamo came to the walking ring, he was wearing the Clearsky colors. Talamo was asked to return to the room and change into the China Horse Club silks, but the silks could not be located. Talamo wore the Clearsky silks.
“They moved her purely because of the silks,” Callaghan said. “It’s a pretty heartless thing to do. China Horse Club brings a lot of money into the game, but they bring no class.”
A phone call Thursday to China Horse Club representative Mick Flanagan seeking comment was disconnected during conversation. Flanagan did not return a phone message seeking comment.
The move was a major blow to Callaghan, who developed Abel Tasman from an unraced 2-year-old into one of the leading members of her division. The filly, by Quality Road, has won three of five starts and is considered a leading prospect for the Kentucky Oaks.
Baffert, who trains American Anthem for an ownership group that includes China Horse Club, said he got the call Wednesday.
“I was surprised,” Baffert said. “They said they were going to move her no matter what, and they asked me" (Free 2017).
Drama.
Your Love is a lightly raced Chad Brown Flatter filly. 2 starts/2 wins, stepping up from N1X territory today.
I really like Vertical Oak. She's had a really interesting 2017 with early success, some misfortune in the Jersey Girl, a well beaten but still running Victory Ride. It's depressing her price and I dig that. She's 4 wins in 10 starts and don't sleep on that speed.
I'll take my chances not covering Chalon, but you can't cover them all. She showed exceptional speed in the Jersey Girl so depending on her price I may include her. Sorry to be less than definitive, I'm just not sure if I'm even building a horizontal bet on the race.
I'm not sure what to make of Cursor. She's looked good in sprints and her price will be big. Speed, and a lack of, is the issue.
I like the Divine Park filly Divine Miss Grey. 5 wins in 9 career starts. Speed, and a lack of, is the issue part deux.
I think I'll cover the four and maybe assemble some prices into exacta and win bets as well.
Have fun with it friends. I'll be back to handicap the Whitney, the De La Rose and complete my Pick 3.
Today I pulled together all the video on every stake race run at the Saratoga Springs from the opening of the Meet through August 2.
I've never had a very good ROI at Saratoga, especially on the dirt track. The surface doesn't seem to be playing as in years past. I've heard it referred to as playing like Churchill Downs. I don't know about that. When you watch the races back to back like this you will see the rail and the next path over seem to have a bias. I'm sticking to the Turf and just handicapping the main track for kicks.
I'll update this as the weeks go on.
Turk Out!
Turf
Lake George Stakes G3 8.5F 3YO F 21 July
Diana Stakes G1 9f 3YO and Up 22 July
Bowling Green G2 11F 4 YO and Up 29 July
Coronation Cup Stakes 5.5 F 3 YO 31 July
Dirt
Coaching Club American Oaks G1 9F 3 YO Fillies 23 July
Honorable Miss H. G2 6F 3 Yo and Up F/M 26 July
John Morrissey Stakes 6.5F 3 Yo and Up F/M
Curlin Stakes 9F 3 YO
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes H. G1 6f 3 YO& Up 29 July
The Alabama Stakes is typically a highlight race for me at Saratoga. I've had conflicts with this weekend over the past few years and the last time I was able to be there for it, my son and his grandfather joined me in 2009 to see the absolutely gorgeous Careless Jewel win in a romp.
It looked like the sort of performance that could catapult the filly to super stardom, but it just wasn't to be and the second best filly of 2009 behind Rachel Alexandra was retired soon after.
Songbird, today's stupid-crazy heavy chalk favorite has skyrocketed to super heights already, winning nine straight and absolutely dominating all comers. Today's focus will be on figuring out if she can be beaten and by who, as well as just embracing the heavy chalk as a single and seeing who can bring value into the Place and Show spots on an exotic ticket.
Three Turk Generations at the Spa: Travers Stakes Day 2007
Today's race is not named after a person or a famous horse, but instead for the home state of William Cottrill, a former Confederate officer. The race track was trying to remember the efforts of Mr. Cottrill who is credited with helping to revive horse racing in the North following the American Civil War. Mr. Cottrill owned a farm near Lexington, Kentucky and bred a Kentucky Derby winner, 1884's Buchanan (Hale 2001).
Horse racing remembers. A few years back I was deeply disturbed when many of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park meet's races were renamed by the Stronach Group. I still don't like it and one of the most appealing things about horse racing to me besides the horses themselves is the tradition. When I look at this picture of my father and son, together at the 2007 Travers Stakes, it means something to me, it's my roots, horse racing roots, the thing that ties one generation of fans to the next. Imagine the hacks at the NYRA one day just deciding to rename The Alabama Stakes. I get heart palps just thinking about that. I'm sorry, I digress, and I just want to end this thought with this: Horse Racing Remembers.
I've been babbling a bit too much already, lets get after this race with a bit of video handicapping and then a peek at the fractions these horses are capable of. Let's get after it!
24 July2016 CCA Oaks G1 SAR 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
16 July 2016 Indiana Oaks G2 IND; 1 1/16 Miles; Fast Dirt
20 May 2016 Black Eyed Susan G2; PIM; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
9 April 2016 Ashland G1; KEE; 1 1/8 Miles; Fast Dirt
Just some simply dazzling performances highlight in these few videos. I could post all of Songbirds and what you see is complete consistency. The Weep No More back to front finish at KEE in the Ashland was one of the memorable races of 2016 already, but nothing really from her since.
The chart below shows a small sample size of races at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 of a mile. Surprisingly Flora Dora ran a similar speed in an OC $62K at BEL in early Julyas compared to Songbird'sSummer Oaks G2.
At 1 1/8 miles there was a shocking disparity between Songbird, with the next closest horse Flora Dora finishing 8 lengths behind based on 1/5 of a second per length. Songbird is often slowed in the final 1/16 and that skews the data as this girl has tactical speed and Hall of Fame Jock Mike Smith knows how to use it.
Songbird. I'm not sure I need to say much else. She won at SAR, she's 9-0 lifetime with $2.4 MM of earnings already, a 5 Time Grade 1 winner, a Breeders' Cup Champ, she's the complete package. If it means anything, she has the lowest Tomlinson Number at the distance with a 269. I expect her to soar.
Family Tree, with hot jock F. Geroux up for trainer Wayne Catalano, comes in off two impressive outings in the mid west, in the Iowa Oaks in June and the Indiana Oaks 2 weeks later in July. While the class in those races isn't terribly high, she was impressive.
Going for Broke is making a big jump in class for trainer Chad Brown who places Ortiz up. That combo has struck for 30% wins in 90 tries at SAR this meet.
Go Maggie Go is on a layoff since June 11, something trainer Romans only wins 9% of the time. A :58 4/5ths 5f bullet with 76 others in the workout tab on 12 August shows she's fit. Black Eyed Susan winner wasn't visually impressive and ran a better, but out of the money, Kentucky Oaks a few weeks earlier.
Flora Dora I think is too low in my base handicap. Blinkers On, this First Dude daughter has two very fast bullets at SAR this month in morning work, I'm expected a focused and possibly career best effort to get in the money. I'll be covering her from Place to 4th.
Weep No More had alot of speed to run at in KEE. She'll be running at alot of speed here too. I'm not expecting a repeat performance. No Place or Show finishes in her career yet. Feast or famine and she's in the deep water today.
I'm tossing Dark Nile at my own peril.
I'm leaning towards two very different bets:
Primary: Songbird singled with 5-3-4-7-2 covered from Place to 4th in some combination I haven't fully thought through yet. I don't think I'll cover that many horses in Place but a 6 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 OVER 5-3-4-7-2 $2 Trifecta will cost $40.
Secondary/Hedge Bet: Exactas with Songbird in Place and the 5-3-4-7 in WIN spot. $2 bet for $8.
I'd like to end this post by again saying that I think Arlington Race Track is a wonderfully run, fan friendly place that I highly recommend to my horse racing friends. They make it easy to buy tickets on their website and the track experience in the club seating is fantastic. I wish Illinois racing would get their act together and attract better talent with better purses, but you cannot beat Million Preview and Million Day at that track. NYRA could learn a few things about race track experience from the team at Arlington.
I've thrown the white towel in this year. I'm not handicapping the Arlington Millions Day card. I play Arlington quite a bit, and I do very well both on the turf and the fake dirt, but I have had some of my most horrid, absolute abysmal handicaps over the past few years on Millions Day. I've embarrassed the Turk brand, and worse, I soiled The Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, with wretched handicapping. I am taking a break from that sort of emotional baggage this year as I think it clouds my ability to handicap dispassionately. That said, I choose Saratoga, a track I don't play especially well, and I was a bit underwhelmed and disappointed to find a a six horse Alabama Stakes, made worse by the early scratch already of Tell a Great Story.
I'm mostly a race fan today, as the cards I've spent time studying don't thrill the degenerate gambler side of me, but for a bit of thrill the Pick 3 seems like a low risk way to feel a bit of engagement with today's races. I handicapped the Sword Dancer for the nice folks at the Thorofan Handicapper's Corner, and I'm going to bookend that race with an Optional Claimer and the Alabama. I think I'll single Princess of Sylmar unless Fiftyshadesofhay is something much better than the 2-1 morning line dropped on her.
Anyways, let's get after this!
As a betting race, the 8th is a neat race; big field, nice quality, and a dividing line between the talent and the filler. Royal Blessing and Master Wesley seem like the best of the bunch, 4 YO's, good barns, and they still have a career ahead of them if they step forward. I'm five deep on my Pick 3 for this race but just lazy. Ampersand and Kathy's Kitchen I'd put above Lead Singer but Lead Singer represents some value if Trainer John Kimmel and Maragh, up, can build on the 3 YO's last race and bullet work.
In the Sword Dancer, which I blogged in depth just yesterday, I think I only look to Big Blue Kitten and Boisterous.
Have fun race fans on a full day of top flight racing action.
More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery. Animal people understand this. From Facebook today
"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"
Friends, thank you for reading and welcome to this handicap written for the Thorofan Handicapping Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of racing fans who cater to the racing fans. It's run by some great folks and is spreading every year. If you are like me and crave a bit of horse talk on a regular basis, then you will find all the social interaction you need here.
The handsome man and equine is none other than J. Elliot Burch and the 1959 Horse of the Year, Sword Dancer. Burch, a Hall of Fame Trainer, just recently died in 2011 but he belongs a part of every Saratoga summer, as his charges won many a race just off of Union Avenue. Burch is a four time winner of the Travers Stakes, a feat alone that reserves reverent remembrance. I personally remember Sword Dancer as a two time Woodward Stakes winner, a Travers winner, a Belmont winner, and Sire of Damascus, winner of so many races except the Kentucky Derby, conditioned by yet another Hall of Fame trainer, Frank Whitely Jr.
The Turk likes turf racing. The pace scenario is typically understandable on the races between 1 3/16 and 1 1/2 miles: stay close, keep a clear lane, run like hell at the end. You'll get your occasional maverick who wants to charge out to a 20 length lead and wire the field, but most of these races run the same way. My keys have always been to identify class, late turn of foot and who's done it before.
Races as investments are risk/reward: You put your investment capital on the line and you expect a return. I'll save diatribes about take out for others as I accept take out as a market condition that I just have to factor in. One thing I like about Turf Races of this kind usually is the field size, as anytime you lump 10-14 horses together there will be prices to be found, even on the cream of the crop.
I think there is a clear dividing line with this field of 13, as my initial count has five possible victors and I expanded my exotic pool to eight. I like to start by watching some video of the last race or two from some of the key contenders.
6 July 2013; Monmouth: 1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf; Grade 1 United Nations. Big Blue Kitten, Teaks North
13 July Belmont Park; 1 3/8 Miles Turf Good- Grade 1 Man O' War; Twilight Eclipse, Al Khali, Optimizer, Exclusive Strike, Boisterous
I like Boisterous and Big Blue Kitten at the top of thechart and if forced to single I'd take Boisterous but that's pretty light chalk.
Boisterous is 15 of 21 in the money on Turf and 9 of his last 11 in the money. No wins in only one try at this distance and one win on Saratoga grass. This 6 YO Distorted Humor son, Trained by McGaughey and ridden by John Velazquez rattled off :46 2/5ths on the grass here on August 5th. Maybe likes softer grass and is carrying 123 pounds, so thoughts to consider.
Big Blue Kitten is coupled with the veteran gelding Stormy Lord. Winner of last two firm turf runs, the Grade 1 United Nations and a $100,000 OC at Churchill Downs two days before the Kentucky Derby. The 5 YO is 15 of 16 lifetime in the money, 13 of 14 in the money on turf, a winner at Saratoga, but new to this distance. Trainer Chad Brown is winning 29% of turf starts and 31% of routes and he's 33% off the break.
Optimizer, owned by Calumet Farms and trained by Wayne Lukas is a 4 YO English Channel son with 27 career starts already, 15 on turf, and 10 of 15 in the money with 5 wins over grass. He doesn't win much but he'll be competitive. I'll be looking at him for Place and Show in the Trifecta.
Twilight Eclipse still has something to prove. While I can't embed because Gulfstream aren't as blogger friendly as they could be, check out the Pan American at 1 1/2 miles from earlier this year. I'm not sure he beat much except maybe Newsdad and Teaks North, but he looked good doing it with a perfect rail trip. Castellano, the pilot that day, is up again. Seems to be improving for Tom Albertrani.
Teaks North is a hard knocking horse I've always appreciated. If I'm trying to keep the investment lower though I drop him out of the Trifecta, but I do it at my own peril. Capable of Show or Last.
Exclusive Strike is a 6 YO Smart Strike gelding, perhaps singularly the turf horse I've lost the most betting his offspring but I don't hold it against him! It's class warfare with him, great in OC 16K affairs, not so much in this company.
Nutello: Your guess is as good as mine. A Kentucky born Lemon Drop Kid son from Nutcase returns from France without much success in graded stakes action but 5 wins in 13 starts. No idea.
Al Khali, London Lane (Colonial Turf Cup 2013 Winner) and Tannery (Ire) are mild threats for Show and little separates them from Teaks North, Exclusive Strike or Nutello.
Judging from my numerous betting options I really don't know what I'm doing, but I'm writing this on Friday and I have time to check the Turf Conditions and Scratches and Changes. The last part of my decision making process is always an honesty moment with myself: Do I want to bet this? I'm a horse tracker investor, so I'm not opposed to it, but what is my likely chance of success? My ROI on American 12 panel racing is not very good and in fact a money loser over the past four seasons, albeit with only a sample size of about 25 races. Ultimately it will come down to the tote board and if Boisterous and Big Blue Kitten can stay closer to 3 or 4 to one each. I will keep working my options until I get my two dollar investment between 30-50 dollars.
Good stuff friends, as always, have fun and don't bet what you need to live. If you have a problem, get some help, there is plenty out there.
More importantly, I've never asked the readers of The Turk for anything, and I'm not asking anyone to do something now, but if you could consider the fundraising request below I would deeply and humbly appreciate it. The people involved with this young colt, Timothy James, are all very good and decent folks who need help paying for emergency colic surgery. Animal people understand this. From Facebook today
"....Timothy James (the colt) had to have emergency colic surgery last night & needs financial support along with the many prayers. He is named after our Son who sadly died 9/26/2011. His owner, Maria Borell & Timmy are now "family" to us & we want to help ease their great financial burden. Our Facebook Friends/Family all know what this special colt means to the Reynolds' Family. What an amazing memorial tribute this would be to our Tim "Tiznow"! Thank you in advance, from the bottom of our hearts, for any support you that you are able to send!!"
