The Nominations Are In: August 2, 2009; The FourStarDave at Saratoga and the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar

That happy looking bunch to the left is the connections for Red Giant, the speedy Giant's Causeway son and winner of the 2008 FourStarDave Handicap at Saratoga. The Trainer of Red Giant is none other then the dapper T. Pletcher, who brings in another Giant's Causeway son, Cowboy Cal into the 2009 edition of this race.

Race 7 SAR Post Time 4:21 ET; The FourStarDave Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 mile on Turf for 3 YOs and Up.



The Hour by Hour Forecast for Saratoga lists an 80% chance of precipitation at 3 PM. Figure that into your calculations and check the track website for if the race is taken off the turf at all. The Turk will be reworking the handicap, or not betting at all, depending on the surface condition minutes before post. The Turf was listed as Good around 11 AM.

I am placing Cowboy Cal at the top of my base handicap. He faired poorly on yielding turf in his last outing at 1 1/4 and faded a bit on good turf at 1 1/8 before that. It's a concern.

Breaking from the next gate is Justenuffhumor, a McLaughlin/Garcia combination that clicked along last meet at SAR 35% of the time. The 4 YO son of Distorted Humor is 4 of 4 in 2009 and 3 of 3 at this distance, and Trainer McLaughlin clips away at 22% on Turf. Lots to like. His last two wins were also on Turf listed as good.

7 Yo Cosmonaut is an erratic threat. 17 of 28 Turf races in the money, 19 of 35 lifetime in the money, 8 wins in 35 career starts. His last two outings ended in lost positioning, but Leparoux is up again and has ridden this horse well in the past.

I've dropped Kip Deville back a bit, but that doesn't mean he can't strike anywhere from 1st to 5th, but I'm leaning towards no better then third.


On the Left Coast, where the Surf meets the Turf, we have some of California's biggest names competing against the hero of the Dubai Meet, Well Armed. The Turk loves the circular nature of life and just as we had with FourStarDave, we have Well Armed, returning from Dubai for the second year in a row, returning to action from post 10 with jock Gryder up, looking to win this race for the second year in a row. The picture was taken by Andrew Watkins.

Race 8 DMR Post Time 8:30 ET: The San Diego Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on dangerous fake dirt for 3 YOs and Up.



I'm going to back Informed to nip Well Armed before the line. Informed is dropping back in distance and the 5 YO son of Tiznow goes into his third race since mid June. I like where he's at right now and I like is lifetime 8 of 12 in the money at this distance and his 3 of 3 lifetime in the money at DMR. My early bet strategy will not be tied to Informed winning, so no key's, no wheel's with him and all I'll be looking for is a top 4 finish.

I'm dropping Well Armed no lower then second and I expect the horse to be even money or worse by post time. A top four is all I'm looking for, and I'll have an unbalanced matrix of bets that lean towards him winning.

The balance of my top four are streches and I'm liable to rethink or not bet this race because my handicap flopped them out so high and it doesn't sit well with me. I liked Kelly Leak several months back, but he's been on the shelf since late March. The Runaway Groom colt has been training for speed and endurance and looks very sharp in the mornings. I'm looking for Mike Smith to be in a foul mood after the WV Derby and ride a big race today.

Sangaree from the far outside is a seemingly outclassed colt today, but I'm not so sure. The 4 YO Baffert trainee has the late speed to find the back of the ticket. I think some bigger name and fading horses will have a hard time here today.

Whats it all mean? There is alot of talent outside of Well Armed and Informed. A matrix with multiple third and fourth place finishers will be constructed and I'll be active in 10 cent superfecta betting. The filly Allicansayis Wow is carrying 15 less pounds then Well Armed and I'm always curious when Biancone picks a odd spot for a runner.

Enjoy. Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 28, 2009

The Turk didn't have any expectations with the Dubai races except to enjoy the races themselves as well as gain experience handicapping foreign horses with scant information on the PPs. The Florida Derby on the other hand, I had high expectations to not only handicap well, but to possibly find a betting situation that would result in a big payout. Well one out of two ain't bad.

Race 10 GulfStream Park: The Florida Derby Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 3 YOs.



With two scratches, the field got a bit too small, and the money a bit too big on what the betting public sensed were the only three horses worthy of betting. They were right, but as a bettor, you're not happy when everyone else has the same opinion as you. The Trifecta paid $6.00. I did some quick math a few minutes before post and thought the Trifecta would be no more the $10.00, and with a minimum payout expectation threshold of $30.00 that I shoot for, I passed. I had two bets ready to go, and one of them was the straight trifecta, but again, a bettor like me who likes to eeck out good returns on small risk just didn't see the point.

But I'm ahead of myself. The race itself was semi-dramatic for about a furlong. Quality Road hit the stretch and the only one ready to meet him was Dunkirk. The two fine colts, the best two colts in this race, traded the for several hops before Quality Road dug in gamely and won by a length and a quarter. A solid handicapper that I know suggested to me prerace that Theregoesjojo's trainer had the horse leave something in the tank during the running of the Fountain of Youth. While I do think the horse came out of that race fresh, I also think the reality is Theregoesjojo is a quality Grade III winner, an threat for Grade II wins, and not a true Grade I horse. I'll get hate mail, but that's the way I see it. The 401 Triple Crown nominees are down to about 10 real Grade I studs and a group of 30 or so Grade II's and then some serious parity competing for Allowance Races and Grade III's. No crime in being what you are, Class comes not from what was paid for the animal, but what level the horse can consistantly be competitive at.

A solid, solid win that propels Quality Road to the top of my Derby favorites and I only hope that Trainer Jerkens finds a way to keep him sharp, but I don't think I need to worry about the horse knowledge in that man's DNA.



I feel like I want the hours of my life back handicapping Dubai. I was pretty unsucessful with the races I blogged, and I did OK with some other races on the card, but blogger ethics prevent me from bragging about races I don't previously announce my intentions with. I've got the video, including a great Japanese race call of the Dubai Duty Free. The video on both race shows a rather non compelling result, not to take anything away from either winner. I was very impressed by Well Armed. I've always liked him, but perhaps never enough to pick him over his contempories like the late Go Between.

Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai Duty Free Grade I; 1 1/8 miles on Turf for 4 YO and Up.





Nad Al Sheba: The Dubai World Cup Grade I; 1 1/4 miles on dirt for 4 YO and Up.

Post Race Analysis: Race Day January 10, 2009

Race 9 at Fair Grounds, The LeComte Stakes, G3, at 1 Mile on Dirt for 3YOs.



The bettors sent Friesan Fire off as the favorite and were not disappointed. I was surprised slightly as Indygo Mountain has garnered a lot of hype in the past few weeks. Indygo Mountain faired worse then I expected after leaving the gate poorly and never mounting any drive. I was surprised as well by the strong runs of Au Moon and especially Patena. It was a nice $40.20 exacta, the type of ticket the Turk likes to cash, but it wasn't to be. I'll have to change my stance somewhat next week. The Turk has been handicapping without morning lines, but I don't want to handicap scratched horses either, so I may take a quick peek just for those.

And at the Great Race Place, Santa Anita, Race 8, The San Pasqual Handicap G2, 1 1/16 miles on Santa Anita's version of dirt that sometimes people praise and sometimes people scorn (D. Wayne felt the need to trash it this week)for 4 Yos.



About the only thing the Turk did get say right was that Cowboy Cal was mostly likely in better current form then Well Armed. What I liked most was the fight that Cowboy Cal brought to this one, refusing to surrender the lead. I didn't see Informed or Magnum being considerations, and both had strong races with so so trips. I gambled on Mostacolli Mort, who went off as the fourth pick of the bettors at 6.30. He saved ground, came out of the stretch, but had no where to go. The $1 exacta paid $90.90.

And near and dear to the Turk's heart, Turk went off as the overwhelming bettors choice in the 3rd race at Santa Anita yesterday, still looking to break his maiden. The Baffert owned and trained colt had the win but couldn't finish, taking place money for the second race in a row.

Breeder's Cup Heavy Hitters Preview: Dirt Mile Contenders

Well Armed was addressed in a seperate post

Divine Park

G1 Metropolitan Handicap (The Met Mile), 1 Mile on fast dirt at Belmont-May 26, 2008



...Divine Park was unhurried while well in hand along the backstretch, moved out on the far turn, rapidly gained while four wide nearing the quarter pole, closed steadiliy to challenge inside the furlong marker and then wore down Commentator. Commentator led most of the race.

The fractions were 22.48; 44.52(22.04); 1.09.61(25.09); and a plodding final quarter in 27.30 for a final 1:36.91


Lewis Michael

G2 Pat O'Brien Handicap, 7f raced on Del Mar faux dirt-August 24, 2008




...Lewis Michael stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch, bid outside the pacesetter in midstretch, gained a short lead, drifted in from the whip a 1/16 out, inched clear, continued to drift in under left handed pressure but won clear.

The fractions were 22.65; 45.07(22:42); 1:08.79(23.72); and the final 1/8 in 12.38 for a final 7f in 1:21.17. Lewis Michael returned 19.20. The chalk was Midnight Lute who started and finished poorly.

Wasserman

Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs-August 17, 2008

Breeder's Cup Heavy Hitters Preview: Well Armed

Well Armed

Trainer Eoin Harty discusses Well Armed



August 24, 2008 Pacific Classic Stakes, G1. 1 1/4 on Del Mar faux dirt. Well Armed loses to Go Between by a neck.



...Go Between angled in and settled inside then off the rail on the backstretch, went three deep on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and rallied under left handed urging to gain the lead deep stretch, then gamely prevailed. Well Armed stalked off the rail the outside a rival, took the lead three deep a quarter mile out, inched away in the stretch, fought back inside the winner in the final furlong and continued gamely to the end.

The fractions were 23.4; 47.36; 1:12.20 (24.84); 1:37.06(24.86) and a final 1/4 in 24.12 for a final of 2:01.18 (A track record for Go Between)



July 19, 2008 San Diego Handicap, G2. 1 1/16 on Del Mar faux dirt



...Well Armed sped to the early lead, angled in on the first turn and set the pace inside of Global Hunter on the second turn, kicked clear under urging, came a bit off the rail in the deep stretch and held sway. Surf Cat stalked the pace inside, came out past midstretch and finished well to be second best.

The 1 1/16 mile race was run in fractions of 23.29; 46.89(23:60); 1:10.62(23:73); 1:35.14(24.52) and the final 1/16 in 6:43 for a final of 1:41.57. Well Armed never trailed.


September 27, 2008 Goodwood Stakes, G1. 1 1/8 on Santa Anita faux dirt




...Well Armed stalked outside then alongside a rival, bid three deep leaving the second turn and into the stretch, gained the lead outside foes, inched clear under urging and held gamely. Tiago unhurried outside a rival then off the rail, came out four wide into the stretch and rallied late for the place.

The 1 1/8 race had fractions of 23.26; 46.81; 1.10.31; 1:34.86 for a final 1:47.11. At the 3/4 mark, Well Armed was 3rd, 1.5 lengths back. Tiago, as Tiago will do, was 10th at that point and rallied hard.

March 29, 2008 Dubai World Cup, G1. ~1 1/4 on Nad Al Sheba's idea of dirt