The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Saratoga Springs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saratoga Springs. Show all posts
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.
I've been handicapping since the mid 1980's and I've posted over 725 blog entries here since 2008. What I am not is a horse racing insider or someone who even remotely gets caught up in the news or the personalities. I don't want racing coverage with the sound up (except the race calls) and I don't read about the races in advance. I handicap off of what I see on DRF Formulator PPs (not sponsored!) and from Youtube race videos. These days I'm much more likely to be making theoretical bet, as I seldom gamble anymore. I don't do this for monetization, and quite frankly, I'm not doing it for views, as very few people actually read long form blogs anymore in the horse racing space. Take it for what it's worth, but when I'm handicapping consistently I have a positive ROI.
Work takes up a lot of my time. When I retire, my plan is to take the blog in new directions, data scrapping from API feeds to improve my analysis and product. For now, I blog to stay fresh, as handicapping is a muscle that needs exercise.
I generally like to handicap 4 YO and Up going greater than 1 mile. Beggars can't be choosers these days, with fewer tracks and less races. I wasn't even sure why Saratoga was running this weekend and I understand they have a 4 July Holiday mini-meet before the main meet opens late next week. Fine with me, it fills a gap where I would have been handicapping Arlington in the past, or even Belmont.
I didn't have a lot of video I wanted to look at. I'm frustrated with finding Churchill Downs video again.
Hall of Fame G2, SAR, 1 Mile Firm Inner Turf. 2 August 2024. Neat.
Poker G3, SAR 1 Mile Firm Inner Turf. 5 June 2025. Intellect (FR), Donegal Momentum
5 July 2025: The Kelso G3; 1 Mile on Inner Turf at SAR for 4 YO and Up
I'm leaning towards 2-8 OVER 1-2-4-5-6-8, a $2 Bet for $20. Feels like I'm going to do a possible magic trick of turning $20 into $0 dollars, but we'll see. I always reserve the right to adjust based on the tote board, which I think every horse player should reassess, as this is about informed risk and value more than being "right".
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, sharing handicapping and bet construction advice since 2008.
I moved to Saratoga, Jumel Place, in April of 1986 and lived there until late November. I did all the requisite things that a Navy Petty Officer should do, including dating a Skiddy Kiddy, hanging out at The Metro and becoming a fixture at the race track. What I did not get the pleasure of doing was see Fourstardave (pictured above with photo credit: Adam Coglianese) run in person, as he burst onto the scene a year later in 1987. The Sultan of Saratoga is gone but not forgotten, but it's horses like this that catch the eyes and hearts of race fans that are needed if this sport is ever going to grow again. I'm not talking about handle, which is nice and needed, I'm talking about culturally relevancy.
I grew up when sports like Boxing and Horse Racing were still relevant. The generation that fought World War 2 was approaching retirement, enjoying the sports that they and their fathers grew up with, but funny things happen along the cultural road. Gambling on Football now dwarfs everything. Twitter and Social Media platforms offer quick takes which has replaced reading and deeper analysis. I'm not trying to be the old guy shouting from the window for a return to the past, but sometimes the old ways are best.
If you are reading this blog for the first time, try reading a book like Dick Mitchell's Common Sense Betting or Brad Free's Handicapping 101: A Horse Racing Primer. Join The Thorofan and find community. Immersing yourself in something that takes time and effort can be a rewarding experience. If anyone reading this ever wants help learning how to handicap, place a bet, or just feel comfortable at a race track, contact me. I'll do my best to help you and I promise I'm not a creeper!
It's such a lost year on many levels. I was so engaged at the beginning of the year with handicapping and this blog but the quarantine and life in general just took its toll. My only real objective now is to stay fresh, watch September and early October racing carefully, and prepare for Breeders' Cup Weekend. I'm all about turf racing and I prefer the cagey 5-7 year old's the best, and while I prefer a bit more of a route of grass, the inner turf, 1 mile, Grade 1 Fourstardave gives me the opportunity at a nine horse field and a lot of natural class. Lets get after this.
Let's do our best to look at current form:
10 July 2020: Keeneland. 1 Mile, Firm Turf. Maker's Mark Mile G1 Raging Bull (Fr), Emmaus (Ire) and Without Parole (GB)
4 July 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf. Poker Grade 3. Got Stormy, Valid Point
27 June 2020: Belmont. 1 Mile Firm Turf. Just a Game Grade 1. Uni (GB)
20 June 2020: Churchill Downs. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf. Wise Dan Grade 2. Casa Creed, Emmaus (Ire)
26 July 2020: Saratoga. 1 1/16 Miles Firm Inner Turf. The Bernard Baruch Grade 2. Halladay.
8 August 2020: Saratoga. 5 1/2 F Firm Turf. Troy Grade 3. Chewing Gum.
That is the latest on every horse in the field. What to make of it or just noise? We don't have a single last race winner entering the gate. That is highly unusual, but the ebb and flow of the race season is so out of whack right now it's understandable. So takeaways:
Raging Bull (Fr) was out kicked in a late bid. Capable of a 1:32 Mile.
Casa Creed ran a 1:33.72 in Hall of Fame G2 on this course as a three year old last year. Onbly 2 starts since for Mott's runner. Mostly slow efforts.
Emmaus (Ire) trainer Murphy 0-10 Graded Stakes past calendar year. Never fast but seems in decline.
Of the two Mares, Got Stormy's form has been off in 2020. Won this last year at 5-1.
Halladay is a beautiful Grey/Roan who didn't have another gear when challenged last out. Hard to believe Pletcher Graded Stakes 9% in 187 attempts over past year.
One of four (three too many) Chad Brown's, Uni (GB) is classy and the best horse in this field as a Mare. Brown is 29% off 31-60 day layoffs and a staggering 25% Graded Stake Winner in 271 attempts.
Valid Point is a Scat Daddy Grade 1 winner in 6th start. Has had bad trips. Arlington's turf is not apples and apples with Saratoga, but 1:35.5 as 3 YO in Grade 1 Secretariat.
Without Parole (GB) is still winless in North America under Brown and winless since Ascot in 2018. Classy. Need more.
Chewing Gum is Mott's second in the gate, off a quick turnaround 2 weeks ago, stretching out from 5 1/2 furlongs. Crap Shoot.
When a field is like this, evolving current form, overall good quality, I tend to trust my base handicap and let the tote board give me insight into the opportunity cost of the bet. I'm not sure I see value in betting this race until I see where the tote board ranks Raging Bull (Fr) the morning line favorite, how Without Parole and Uni (GB) match up on tote, and where a dark horse may emerge on a value line, such as Hallady or Got Stormy OVER Uni (GB), Without Parole (GB) and Raging Bull (Fr). That would be the sort of $2 Exacta ($12 total) that I could get behind.
Whatever you do, make your betting capital count and have fun with it!
In this blog posted is video on all graded stakes at Saratoga Springs from the opening of the Meet through August 13.
I've played Saratoga lightly since the beginning of the meet. This upcoming Saturday's Alabama Stakes and Lake Placid will be feature races of this blog and the P3's surrounding these races will be my primary play.
If you find this helpful, leave me a comment.
Turk Out!
Turf
Lake George Stakes G3 8.5F 3YO F 21 July
Diana Stakes G1 9f 3YO and Up 22 July
Bowling Green G2 11F 4 YO and Up 29 July
Coronation Cup Stakes 5.5 F 3 YO 31 July
National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame G2 1 1/16 Miles 3 YOs 4 Aug
The Waya G3 1 1/2 Miles F&M 3YO and Up 5 August
Fourstar Dave Handicap G1 1 Mile 3 YO
Dirt
Coaching Club American Oaks G1 9F 3 YO Fillies 23 July
Honorable Miss H. G2 6F 3 Yo and Up F/M 26 July
John Morrissey Stakes 6.5F 3 Yo and Up F/M
Curlin Stakes 9F 3 YO
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes H. G1 6f 3 YO& Up 29 July
