The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Showing posts with label Rockemperor (Ire). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rockemperor (Ire). Show all posts
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, with over 700 Blog Posts over the past 16 race seasons. My primary focus is turf handicapping and exacta betting.
The Turk's connection to Arlington was deep. I've told the story many times, but I was stationed at Great Lakes Naval Training Center the night of the fire on 31 July 1985. I was volun-ordered to get on a truck and about 15 of us were there helping with traffic and running supplies. Flash forward and Arlington became a love of mine, with its lush turf and international turf festival. It was my first race track vacation and it became an annual trip with my teen aged son to see the Million. I also wrote many articles about the state of Illinois Racing, and how the corrupt and incompetent State government was killing the sport with their policies. I don't blame the Bears, but CDI is not innocent: They could have persevered, conducted more lobbying efforts, brought some races to the track, helped with purses, but no, they took the easy cash and again showed distain for the 'more than casual' fan.
I don't believe in organized boycotts, although I think they can be effective, but who's really being hurt? Blue collar employees, while the boss man sips champagne. I considered never playing a race called "Arlington Million", but who does that hurt? No one but me. I can hate what happened to my beloved Arlington, I can mourn what I lost as a fan and a human, but I'm a turf racing handicapper and I remind myself the horses don't know or care about any of these first world problems. They were bred to run and entertain us, give us pleasure. It's symbiotic: How many thoroughbreds would be born without racing? A tiny fraction of the 17,300-ish born now. According to Jockey Club, that's already a 50% reduction from the 34,000 born in 2001. That's startling when first read until you think about the shrinking of the sport, the industry, the field sizes. How many Secretariat's or Zenyatta's were not born over the past 22 years? Don't think about it.
That is an angle to consider when you think about the Europeans. There was a time when most of the Euro's on a turf festival day had to be respected. As hard as it was to evaluate them on an apples to apples basis, you could see the quality of the connections, read the running lines, and just know you had to include them or exclude them on not always ideal data. Now, while anecdotal, I'm seeing fields get fleshed out with so-so Euro's, and the best not coming until Breeders' Cup final prep time.
I'd be remiss to not talk about Maple Leaf Mel today. I've seen breakdowns before, but I'm not sure I've ever seen one as horrific or shocking as hers last week. When I walked into Saratoga last Saturday I walked past the protesters who would be happy to see horse racing banned, not caring that Maple Leaf Mel would never even have been born if it were not for racing. We would have been denied the incredible stretch run the undefeated Maple Leaf Mel made as she was about to become a Grade 1 winner in The Test, we would have been denied the outpouring of love and support to the connections, starting with her Trainer, Mel Giddings and Football Hall of Fame owner Bill Parcells. The NY Bred raced into imaginations and now into nightmares. I'm glad Maple Leaf Mel was born, and I'm glad she ran, and I'm glad when she needed humans the most, in pain and shock, that she was given humane treatment, and I'm glad to get my regular reminder that this sport is about the horses and people that work with these horses. Rest in Peace Maple Leaf Mel.
It's a deep field, even if class and quality is just a cut below the best editions of this race. Notably missing are high end European's that were a staple of Arlington Park editions of this race. Let's not cry any further for what was lost, lets focus on who is here.
Catnip and Adhamo (Ire) have my top spots.
Catnip is five of 8 Turf Exactas and 4 of 4 in the exacta in 2023. Adding an 1/8 of a mile to the classic distance which he tries for the first time. It's a tough spot for a lightly run 4 YO, but I'm intrigued and the price should be right.
Catnip as a beaten Favorite on Haskell Day, the 1 3/8ths United Nations G1
Adhamo (IRE) goes for the first time since October 2022. Chad Brown wins off of a +180 Day Layoff 29% of the time. 4 of 6 at the distance in the money, 7 of 16 on Turf in the exacta, the 5 YO has been training very sharply since early July in Saratoga.
Those chalks of mine were as light as chalk get. My next group of 4, and my top six in general, has little to differentiate them. This next group are Turk favorites, the grizzled veterans.
Set Piece (GB) has to me the best late speed of the field. Adding distance and running back as the beaten favorite over good turf at EIP on Stephen Foster Day. At the back of a 10 horse field, forced to go six wide in the final turn, gaining at the end, just not able to get the trip Geroux, up, may have preferred. Have to respect.
Master Piece (Chi), now 7 YO, trained by Dutrow, comes back after a yielding Turf 1 1/16 mile OC$80K on 4 July. 1 win in last 8 starts. 10 of 22 in exactas over grass. Solid late speed. Running well to Place finish, no excuses. Lezcano up today.
Chad Brown's Rockemperor comes in off of a dog of a classic distance Manhattan on Belmont Day. In what could be a duplicate pace scenario today, you'll see Strong Quality lead most of the race with it's good early speed, only to sink like a stone at the end. Both Strong Quality and Rockemperor aren't in the frame when Up to the Mark blew the doors off this one. I'm hard pressed to see this effort and think anything other than minor prize material.
Never Explain, the $475,000 KEE sale son of Street Sense is at $302,000 of career winnings and a line of 17: 5W 2P 3S. 7 of 16 exactas over turf, no classic distance efforts, and cutting back 1/8 of a mile from the good turf Bowling Green at SAR on 30 July. The ageless Channel Maker had easy fractions and plenty of stamina to seal this one off.
What am I doing with this? A 8-9-3-6-2 Boxed Exacta for $1 dollar will cost $20. I'm including my top six with exception of Rockemperor, at my own peril. I'm tempted to Catnip in the top spot and wheel him in my exacta with the other 4 below, a much cheaper bet, but I think the odds will be favorable and the will pay in many of these combinations able to cover the bet and give me a return. That's the thought but I may adjust as we go.
Instilled Regard wins the 2020 Fort Marcy Stakes at Belmont Park Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping blog that has been handicapping online since 2008.
A big thank you to The Thorofan and the Handicappers Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today.
So much has happened in 2020 on a global stage. I handicapped six races in January/February 2020, as I like to watch the turf racing in the early season in Florida and California as it helps me prepare for when the big races come and I'm looking for value. While the world, and then the United States, went into a free fall beginning in March, my world went upside down with the death of both my Father in Law on March 12 and my own Father on April 8. I had no interest in horse racing, I was forced to continue working alone in an office all by myself, and the best therapy for me was my work. Day in and day out, 12-14 hour days. My work got me through my grief. It's time for horse racing to bring me back the feelings of pleasure. Let's get after this!
My initial reaction was just how even a race this was, even with an albeit small field. It's a four horse race by my fair line odds, with my top 4 consuming 80% of the win percentage while the Morning Line uses five runners on a corrected basis (the percentages divided by 100% + Takeout) to get to 80%. I don't think weather will be an issue and expect firm turf.
Let's start with looking at some video.
Belmont Park; 6 June 2020; 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf (Square around T for newbies on PP) The Fort Marcy G2
Belmont Park; 4 June 2020; 1 3/8 Firm Turf (Circle around T for Main Turf); The Tiller Stakes $80K
Fairgrounds; 21 March 2020; 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; The Muniz Memorial Classic G2
I feel a bit rusty. I have been handicapping for, hard to believe, 35 years this year, so rusty is relative, but I'm torn on my position on this race. That's not a bad thing. When you watch racing long enough you start to spot patterns, archetypes, a recurring pattern. This movie seems very familiar. I'm also not the type of race fan or handicapper that bemoans the quality of the field; handicap what you are given to work with and if you don't like the action, walk away. It's that sentiment that allows me still have a roof over my head and a twenty eight year year marriage.
What to make of all this? Instilled Regard is going to get bet hard. Winning the Fort Marcy over this route of grass for Trainer Chad Brown who has Ortiz Jr up, does not hurt. Brown sends three into a gate of eight, it almost doesn't seem fair or equitable. I like Brown, I've been a fan of his for a very long time, but someone has to challenge is growing dominance on turf just to keep the dynamics of racing fair: 25% Graded Stakes winner in 241 starts, 27% Route Winner in 789 Starts, 26% Turf Winner in 666 Starts, 30% Won Last Start in 240 opportunities and 28% with the 2nd off a >45 day layoff. Shocking numbers, and he dominates the top of the board here also saddling Rockemperor (Ire) and Devamani (Fr).
Archetypes. Favorites for decades hovered as 30% winners from the gate. That number is going up. Does Instilled Regard come out of the gate, rate slightly off the flank and to the outside of early speed Cross Over before handily passing and finishing by a length or two in front of a charging Rockemperor or Sadler's Joy? Admit it, you've seen this movie too. Let's not be too jaded though. Let's assume all Brown runners are allowed to compete fairly against each other, and we have no reason to believe he's dishonest (i discount his fine last year for back OT- the laws are slanted to protect workers, not employers, rightfully so, even if Brown was following standard practice on the backstretch), then is there value to be found in this race? That's the only question a gambler has. Yes, horse racing fans have other interests and concerns, but a gambler, the lifeblood of this sport, should have a narrow focus: Is there money to be made? Possibly, but not betting Brown horses Win Place Show.
My base handicap is in the chart. It confuses some, but just because I handicap a winner doesn't mean I'll bet the handicap, its not sound gambling practice. I'm leaning, tote board dependent, towards Devamani (Fr) on top, my tepid chalk. While coming up short against Instilled Regard at 1 1/8 miles in June's Fort Marcy G2, Instilled Regard has a pretty low Tomlinson (309) for the extra furlong and has only one try at it in 17 lifetime starts. Devamani has a field best 385 Tomlinson and his Class is off the charts, bred by Aga Khan Studs and selling for $322,000 (against only $294,000 career earnings). The gelding may be a late bloomer, although conditioned by turf genius, Christophe Clement and Rob Atras, he is very sharp now in Brown's barn. I'm hoping for 3-1 or better.
If you can't tell, I'm not estatic about this race from a gambling perspective. Too much Brown, too much good Brown. It's not top say crazy things don't happen, it's just not this gambler's business plan to hope for crazy. I don't think it's crazy to think Sadler's Joy is starting to fade. 1 win in last 12: Last 12 back to June 2018: 1 Win, 2 Place, 6 Show, 3 6th place finishes. No longer a Grade 1 horse (except in fields like this), perhaps i'm wrong, and I have been before on older Champions, but I don't like the pace of this field for him. He will get bet though, that's good. So will Instilled Regard and Rockemperor. That's good. I'm going to keep my betting conservative and put Devamani on top with Dot Matrix and Cross Border to Show, a $2 bet for $4. Plausible, not crazy, is the business plan.
It feels good to be back. Thank you Thorofan.
Turk Out!
Three Generations of Turk at the Spa. This was Street Sense's Travers Day
