The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction. I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type. We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases. I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different. It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks. Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless. I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.
If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon. While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup. The circle of life in a horse players year.
I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us. I think about my Dad every time I'm there. My last visit with my father was Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.
The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023
Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green. I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).
Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from?
Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR. The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's. 6 of 7 ITM in 2023. 4 Wins in 6 turf starts.
Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question. Feels more like step one of a Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien. 25 months since last win.
The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February. Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%. Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff. His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers. I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.
Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire). He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time. I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.
I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and Stone Age for $12.
And inThe Travers:
The Jim DandyG2; 1 1/8milesover sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.
The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023
The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023
The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023
Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP. 11 June 2023
The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.
Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.
I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling. I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon. There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland. I'm tossing both from my exacta pool. My value choice is Disarm. Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.
$1 Exacta: 6-2-5-1 for $12. Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.
Have fun friends, Turk Out.
I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.
Welcome Back Friends to the Turk Blog. In my last post for Race 11, the Turf Classic, I prattled on about my love of the older horses running over grass, and my lack of enthusiasm for the 3 YO Kentucky Derby runners. Well, that's still true, but the gambler in me loves big handle and chaos, and with all the scratches including morning line and $2.0 MM winner, champion Forte, we have chaos. One thing I love about the Kentucky Derby is that one day a year it's like yesteryear, and everyone is a race fan and everyone has an opinion. My father, rest in peace, bet the grey horses because his sister, my dear Aunt Rose, loved the grey horses. It doesn't need to be anymore complicated than that. The good looking fella to the left is Rocket Can, but Hit Show, Tapit Trice, Reincarnate and King Russell are all Gr/Ro, so plenty to pick from.
From a handicapping perspective, I'm watching the undercard and speed seems to be carrying, but I'm favoring late speed to round out my potential exacta contenders. Let's get after it!
I won't elaborate too much on the why's to my ranking. I looked at recency/current form, class and effort, plus I do favor late pace figs over early. I could post 10 videos but really, have fun with this and look for value.
If I just boxed my top ten, a $1 bet is $90. Depending by the finish, the risk/reward can be justified with the field size and handle expected.
I will not box however, I will whittle down my potential winners and come up with something a bit more risky but even more reward-y.
Hong Kong Harry (Ire) Del Mar Thoroughbred Club/Benoit Photo
Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, a horse race handicapping and bet construction blog focused on turf racing and exacta betting. When I first started blogging, I felt compelled to get into the Kentucky Derby trail, the prep races and then the first Saturday in May. Some of the "too cool for school" bloggers that I was part of a blogging alliance with would poo-poo the Derby as beneath them. I've never understood how the biggest racing day in America can be beneath anyone writing about this game, but I do understand not caring that much about the 3 YOs. I don't. As a handicapper, their is only one group of horses I like to handicap and bet less, and that's 2 YOs. I like history, video, consistency. I have a soft spot for the veterans, the hard knocker's, the geldings, the survivors. It's my favorite part of horse racing, the unheralded turf runners, big fish in a small pond of public recognition. While I'm likely to tote board handicap the Kentucky Derby, especially with the chaos taking place with all the scratches, staying true to my brand, I'm blogging the race just before, the Turf Classic Grade 1. Life is short, do what you like not what is expected. Let's get after it!
The ten horse field was impacted by two scratches, Master Piece (Chi) and Steady On. Steady On would have pressed the early pace and Master Piece (Chi) had the best late speed. Don't fool yourself, the loss of these pace presser on the front and back end of this field will affect how it unfolds. What to do with it?
I'm putting Hong Kong Harry (Ire) and Up to the Mark in the win spots. 6 YO versus 4 YO. But will be rolling late. Hong Kong Harry has had a slow start to 2023, but Trainer D'Amato 25% off of the layoff. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance, 11 of 12 in the money over turf, but first trip over CD Turf.
Up to the Mark was bred for this distance but goes at 1 1/8 for first time. First time CD. 2 wins in 3 turf starts, 9th career start. Nice late run in the Maker's Mark Mile G1 at KEE 21 days ago. Good start to 2023 with two OC 62K wins at Gulfstream. I.Ortiz, up, 26% in 566 starts over past year. Rooting for Repole here. I honestly don't pay that much attention to owners, but he spoke to Fan Duel TV this AM as I was writing this blog and his genuine sadness for other people in his life and circle over the scratch of Forte in the Kentucky Derby made me a fan of the man's character.
Santin and Spooky Channel could easily win this race. Brendan Walsh's Pretty Mischievous win in the Kentucky Oaks must have the Godolphin trainer walking on sunshine. 5 YO Santin goes Synth to Turf here, which Walsh is only 14% doing. Bad start in last start. No bid in losing to Hong Kong Harry in the Seabiscuit Handicap 22 November 2022. 2 for 2 at CD, including this race last year and the faux Arlington Million. Speaking of that, today would have been the opening day at what I considered the best turf track in North America, Arlington Park. It was a wonderful track, I had a deep connection going back to it from 1985, and I'll never forgive this stupidly (un) managed sport, the corporate greed of CDI, and the moronic state government of Illinois. Moving on...
Seabiscuit H. G2: 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf; Del Mar
Spooky Channel, the 8 YO, has been in great form in 2023 and should be rolling late as well also.
Muniz Memorial G2: 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf at Fair Grounds, 25 March 2023.
29th start today, with 13 turf wins and 18 of 28 in the money over grass.
I think those are the serious win candidates, and quite frankly only Wolfie's Dynaghost should be considered with the other Win candidates for the Place spot. Wolfie's Dynaghost should go off at <10-1, also is a synth to turf runner with Trainer Thomas winning 25% of those. Should be the early speed coming out of 3 spot, most likely next to Ocean Atlantique who I'm discounting at my own peril.
I'm thinking I may single Up to the Mark for the best Value and play 3 or so under him. Something like 5 OVER 3,7,8,9 a $2 bet for $8.
