The Jockey Gold Cup. 1 1/4 main. 3 yo and up.
The money, like usual, will flow to Curlin. I love Curlin and I took a round trip drive of 5 hours each way with Sister Turk to see him at the Woodward. That said, i'm trying to figure out who can beat him for a good price. I see it as Curlin and and one solid other horse, Wanderin' Boy. I see a small second tier after Timber Reserve scratched, Mambo in Seattle.
I've been waiting like everyone else to see a dominant Curlin since his 'round the world trip to Dubai. His 110 Stephen Foster and 112 Woodward are better then everyone else and yet my fickle Turk soul is not satisfied. Shame on me. He's the chalk on this surface until he's beaten.
My second choice who has a good shot is Wanderin' Boy from the 4 post. He has a nice pattern of bullet works and 107ish Beyer's. He get's the "it" rider in A. Garcia today. He's running with the same weight as well. He's run low 90's in sloppy conditions. I'll peg him in low 100's today and he's my dark chalk. I need at least >5-1 and with a ML at 10-1 I should get it. I'm putting $2 to win on him.
Mambo in Seattle starts from the 9 post. He gets Edgar Prado for the first time today. The 3 yo is acclimated to Belmont and has four works, with a long of 7f two weeks ago and a mid tempo 4f work last week. This horse has moved up fast N2X in June to his G1 at the Travers. His ML is 7-2 and I think money will press him down to <5-2. If he wins, he'll win me as a fan, but I'm not sold yet. Let the money chase him.
I don't like the #1, #6 or #8 horse at any price. A.P. Arrow is winless in 2008, 2 of 13 in two years, and again running way above class. Not at any price.
I will consider a $2 flyer on #2, Merchant Marine. His ML is 12-1 and I have him pegged to run about 100 today. If he goes as low as 15-1, I'm on him.
Little Turk likes Curlin and I can't blame him.
So....
$2 to win Wanderin' Boy if >5-1 (probable)
$2 to win on Mambo in Seattle if >5-1 (unlikely)
$2 to win on Merchant Marine if >15-1 (possible)
I will bet a 5-4 exacta for $2 with no box.
Showing posts with label Jockey Gold Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jockey Gold Cup. Show all posts
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Saturday 27 September 2008 Nominations Are In
As I've said friends, the Turk likes to handicap four races a week. No quicker do I say that I have to add an asterisk to that statement. This weekend I'm paying close attention to seven races, and I think I'll bet at least four of them with a bankroll of $6/race.
As this is Thursday night, the following comments are off the cuff and have not been subjected to deep thoughts and my red pen (or several Maker's Mark and Pepsi's).
I have printed the PP for the following:
At Belmont, Saturday 27 September 2008
Race 6: The Beldame, G1. F&M 3yo and up. 1 1/8 main. I love Ginger Punch, but I'll pay attention to the betting odds moments before post and if i get the right price of at least 4-1 or higher on Lemon Drop Mom and5-1 on Unbridled Belle I'll be tempted. I like this race and the horses so I may just be watching...
Race 8: The Vosburgh, G1. 3yo and up. 6F main. No superstars, just some even matched horses running flat out. Should be fun and I look forward to picking apart the numbers. Rockerfeller is coming in with the last race best Beyer of 112 and I think their will be some underlays to be found.
Race 9: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/2 Turf. I like Proudinsky and I'm going to be looking at him as my chalk and trying to make a case against him.
Race 10: The Jockey Gold Cup, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/4 main. Curlin will go off at ugly odds, and while I love the horse, he has to make a statement that he's still the dominant horse this season. I'll be looking to bet against him if I can get good odds with Wanderin' Boy or Mambo in Seattle. Does AP Arrow have a chance, I would think he'll go off at least 8-1 or higher.
...and at Santa Anita
Race 5: The Lady's Secret, G1. F&M, 3yo and up. 1 1/16 main. I'll be watching, not sure if betting. I haven't seen Zenyatta as often as I'd should have. What odds will Hysterical Lady go off at? I'll be watching.
Race 9: The Yellow Ribbon, G1. F&M 3yo and up. 1 1/4 Turf. No particular reason I chose this race, but it looked challenging and I'll spend some time in this PP. The little Turk will spend 20 seconds and I promise he'll show.
Race 10: The Goodwood, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/8 main. I was thrilled by Spirit One at the Arlington Mile and I've been teased and thrown away many a ticket on Tiago. This one looks like fun.
As this is Thursday night, the following comments are off the cuff and have not been subjected to deep thoughts and my red pen (or several Maker's Mark and Pepsi's).
I have printed the PP for the following:
At Belmont, Saturday 27 September 2008
Race 6: The Beldame, G1. F&M 3yo and up. 1 1/8 main. I love Ginger Punch, but I'll pay attention to the betting odds moments before post and if i get the right price of at least 4-1 or higher on Lemon Drop Mom and5-1 on Unbridled Belle I'll be tempted. I like this race and the horses so I may just be watching...
Race 8: The Vosburgh, G1. 3yo and up. 6F main. No superstars, just some even matched horses running flat out. Should be fun and I look forward to picking apart the numbers. Rockerfeller is coming in with the last race best Beyer of 112 and I think their will be some underlays to be found.
Race 9: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/2 Turf. I like Proudinsky and I'm going to be looking at him as my chalk and trying to make a case against him.
Race 10: The Jockey Gold Cup, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/4 main. Curlin will go off at ugly odds, and while I love the horse, he has to make a statement that he's still the dominant horse this season. I'll be looking to bet against him if I can get good odds with Wanderin' Boy or Mambo in Seattle. Does AP Arrow have a chance, I would think he'll go off at least 8-1 or higher.
...and at Santa Anita
Race 5: The Lady's Secret, G1. F&M, 3yo and up. 1 1/16 main. I'll be watching, not sure if betting. I haven't seen Zenyatta as often as I'd should have. What odds will Hysterical Lady go off at? I'll be watching.
Race 9: The Yellow Ribbon, G1. F&M 3yo and up. 1 1/4 Turf. No particular reason I chose this race, but it looked challenging and I'll spend some time in this PP. The little Turk will spend 20 seconds and I promise he'll show.
Race 10: The Goodwood, G1. 3yo and up. 1 1/8 main. I was thrilled by Spirit One at the Arlington Mile and I've been teased and thrown away many a ticket on Tiago. This one looks like fun.
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