Breeders' Cup Homework: The Classic



2008 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita minus the fake dirt

The Turk likes to start his homework with a video review of key races.  With today's release of Breeders' Cup PP's, its time to get down to work!

I'll be blunt;  I want to win a huge stack of money on Breeders' Cup weekend.  I think the field sizes and the lack of overwhelming class leaves the opportunity wide open. 

I like to start with the Classic and work backward.  Anyone who knows me knows I don't bother with two year olds.  I'm going to stick with what I know.  I may be an East Coast guy but I played Santa Anita heavy all year for a reason: I wanted to have a feel for the dirt here and I wanted to feel like a Great Race Place insider.  Check that box, I've played and played well the fast dirt and I'm feelin' it.  I've taken some time off the past weeks to recharge my batteries.  All in time now folks.

Let's get after it.

1 1/8 Mile Pennsylvania Derby Grade 2;  Dirt fast track;  Handsome Mike (86); Macho Macho, Golden Ticket

:49 1/5; 1:14; 1:38 4/5; 1:51 3/5

 1 1/4 Mile Travers Stakes Grade 1; Dirt fast track; Golden Ticket/Alpha (100) DH; Fast Falcon

:48; 1:12 3/5; 1:37 1/5; 2:02 3/5

1 1/4 Mile Jockey Gold Cup Grade 1;  Dirt good track; Flat Out (109); Stay Thirsty; Fort Larned

:47 1/5; 1:11 4/5; 1:36 2/5; 2:01 2/5

1 1/8 Mile Awesome Again Grade 1 @ SA; Dirt fast track;  Game on Dude (109); Nonios; Richard's Kid

:48; 1:11 4/5; 1:36 1/5; 1:48 4/5;

1 1/4 Mile Pacific Classic Grade 1; fake Del Mar dirt; Dullahan (110); Game on Dude; Richard's Kid

:46 4/5; 1:11; 1:35 1/5; 1:59 2/5

1 1/4 Mile Hawthorne Gold Cup Grade 2; Dirt fast track; Pool Play (101); Cease; Eldaafer

:49 2/5; 1:13 4/5; 1:40 1/5: 2:06 1/5

1 1/8 Mile Beldame Grade 1; Dirt good track; Royal Delta (106)

:46 3/5; 1:10; 1:35; 1:48 4/5

1 1/8 Mile Woodward Stakes Grade 1; Dirt fast track; To Honor and Serve (105); Mucho Macho Man

:47 2/5; 1:10 4/5; 1:35 3/5; 1:48 2/5

1 1/8 Mile Whitney Grade 1; Dirt fast track; Fort Larned (108); Ron the Greek; Flat Out

:46 4/5; 1:10 4/5; 1:34 4/5; 1:47 3/5

The Nomination Is In: Graded Stakes Grab Bag: The Grade 1 Mother Goose & Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks plus Post Race Review Stephen Foster Pick 4

The sun is shining and summer is here. My mind drifts to my favorite place to be, Saratoga Race Track, with a season that's only 27 days away. The litany of races that I enjoy is legion, but the short list is The Kings Bishop, The Woodward, The Travers and The Alabama. That's the short list, I could babel on, but I've already made plans to be there on Alabama and Woodward Day which gives my work-weary mind something to look forward to. That beautiful gal pictured is the regal, Royal Delta, Alabama winner, Breeders' Cup Distaff Champion and last week's runaway Stephen Foster Handicap, errrrrr, Fleur De Lis winner. In a year that is devoid of older horse speed, Royal Delta suddenly seems like Game On Dude's biggest challenge in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Yeah, I'm getting ahead of myself, but I'm a blogger, I'm allowed to be irresponsible.

Today's pickings were a bit light. I'm going to focus on tomorrow's Woodbine Queens Plate Day but keep an eye on the fillies I hope to see the Alabama, and to do that, I'm handicapping The Grade 1 Mother Goose at Belmont and the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks.

I had an OK betting night last weekend on Stephen Foster Handicap Day at Churchill Downs. We'll take a peek back and at some of that action as well.

Let's get after this!



Kentucky Oaks 2012



Acorn Stakes 2012




Black Eyed Susan 2012



Have I mentioned how much I am looking forward to the Alabama?

Larry Jones is 25% off the layoff and Believe You Can is making her race leading 10th start and looks to add to her race leading career earnings of $1.06 MM. A Grade 1, 2 and 3 winner.

Contested cruised here at Belmont,essentially uncontested, in the Acorn. She's a major player, with wins at Santa Anita, Belmont and Churchill Downs. Her sixth start, she was the chalk in every one of her previous 5 trips to post. Baffert clipping along at 32%.

Watch the Black Eyed Susan (above)and tell me who was opening up in the last 1/16 after working so hard to get through traffic. That's right, the Gr/Ro. daughter of Giacamo, Disposable Pleasure. A nice play may be to put Disposable Pleasure, who'll go off >6-1, on top and key exacta with both Believe You Can and Contested. that's worth $4 bucks to me!

At Hollywood later tonight is an 8 horse Hollywood Oaks.

The Santa Anita Oaks 2012



Melair Stakes 2012



Hollywood Starlet 2011



If you have a pulse, you've enjoyed Willa B Awesome all spring. 5 of 7 in the money on fake dirt, a Grade 1 winner, a Grade 3 winner, the race career earnings leader and making her race leading 14th start. A zippy :59 flat 5f work this week. Lots to like but I'm going to back Potesta.

Trainer Mitchell's stats are eye-popping: 35% fake dirt, 32% off layoff, 28% won last start, 26% routes and 33% wins on 61 starts when he places Talamo up. 8 pound advantage over Willa B Awesome.

Killer Graces pulled a $28.40 shocker in the Hollywood Starlet in December but is winless in 2012. 5 of 5 in the money at HOL, 5 of 7 in the money on fake dirt, trainer Hollendorfer is 24% on the Turf/Fake Dirt Switch. Not sure if she can win, but she's got guts and will be in the mix.

Eden's Moon is a Grade 1 winner but comes in after flaming out badly in the Kentucky Oaks. Baffert has her sharp and she will be dangerous in this group. Winless on only one fake dirt start

Hollendorfer has Via Villagio as well, returning after a Beyer jump to win the Grade 2 Railbird at 7f on HOL fake dirt in mid May.

I think this is a nice betting race, just enough horses and just enough parity to keep the odds honest. I'll be constructing exotics based around my base handicap.

In last week's Pick 4 of the Stephen Foster Handicap Day, an excellent nigh time racing card at Churchill Downs, I had some good handicapping and some OK, not great, bet constructions. Highlights were getting Treasured Up into the Trifecta of the Grade 3 Regret. Positive ROI, more of a single than a home run.



Fleur De Lis 2012






Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Pick 4 on Stephen Foster Day at Churchill Downs

This Turk hasn't enjoyed a Triple Crown season as much as I enjoyed this years since Street Sense, Curlin and Rags to Riches thrilled me in 2007. I don't feel qualified to compare one crop of three year olds to another, but as a fan I'm more than qualified to talk about my relative excitement level, and amidst all the turmoil that still envelops horse racing, I'm ever the optimist that the bottom was reached and a brighter future is ahead.

One of the things I look forward to after the Triple Crown madness subsides is to see which runners, written off on the trail as not good enough, or worse, not even good enough to be on it, come into their own. My favorite horses are always the ones that run year after year until they retire, hopefully sound. I still await the next Lava Man, Einstein, Commentator, Brass Hat, Presious Passion to name a few. Race's like today's Fleur De Lis Handicap and Stephen Foster Handicap is where those hard knockin' veteran horses strut their stuff, which makes today must see TV for me. Pictured above is Royal Delta, Alabama, Black Eyed Susan and Breeders' Cup Distaff champion. With those credentials, you had me neigh.

I love night racing on Saturday nights. I think it's a great way in the summer time to cater to the fans, not only at the track (because who wants to sit in 90 degree weather) but also the fans at home. I plan on being fully engaged with this card, and quite frankly, this is a Fathers Day gift, the time on a Saturday to watch these races, that I'm happy to accept.

While I may bet vertically within these races, horizontal was today's blog focus. I settled on the Pick 4, a bet that can be assembled within the confines of my personal bet limits, as opposed to the Pick 6, a speciality form of handicapping and betting that I don't have the skill with quite frankly. Know thy self: I'm less of a winner picker and more of a race talent evaluator. I excel at lumping the horses into groups, and those groups make up the potential winners, potential exotics and the toss outs. Know thy self: I'm more of a vertical bettor, I'm more skilled at it and my ROI is much higher with -ecta's than it is with P3/P4's. What makes us better as gamblers? Practice.

Let's get after it!

Churchill Downs Races 5-6-7-8: The All Graded Stakes Pick Four



In Race 5, The Matt Winn, Right to Vote is the most likely chalk on the tote board but I have Stealcase as mine: This Lawyer Ron (with saddness I think of the too few Lawyer Ron's)son lost by a neck to Belmont's Place horse, Paynter two back and comes in off a sharp CD 1 mile effort while driving. This is the race I'm not taking chaces with, overcovering slightly and I have Neck n' Neck and Macho Macho as well and we'll hope the longest odds take it.

The Grade 3 Regret has some really nice young gal's going at it. Michael Matz has Colonial Flag, with Leparoux up, looking for third straight Turf win. She has a very wicked late turn of foot and look for her to stalk.

Coup, an Augustin Stable runner, owned by Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame member, Mr. George Strawbridge, comes off an impressive win in The Hilltop on Preakness Day. Very curious how she responds today.

Centre Court and Treasured Up represent value here.

In the Fleur De Lis, I would be inclined to single Royal Delta, and I trust that Mott would not have entered her her if she wasn't sharp, but I hate the UAE bounce, I've been burned many times, and I'd just rather be safe. Afleeting Lady is my choice to pull the upset: a sharp :47 1/5th 4f work this week and enters off n3X effort. 5 of 6 in the Money at CD. I reckon if i wanted to really be safe I'd put St. John's River in, but you can't cover everyone.

And finally, the handicap division, and Wise Dan, a monster late in the season with a freakish Clark run and a huge Ben Ali Beyer last out. Only one win on Dirt, but it is here at CD. Fort Larned is my choice to pull the upset and add value. The four year old lost by a head to Successful Dan last time out, a horse that is expected to be scratched here.

I'd be remiss to not wish a Happy Father's Day to my Father, big Turk.



Big Turk has a big heart, even if it has a mechanical ticker keeping time now. He has always been my moral compass, enforced by hands bigger than boxing mitts. Happy Father's Day Pops.

I'd also like to wish my Father in Law a Happy Father's Day. He's a Saint for many reasons.

The greatest blessing in the world (in my humble opinion) is to be a parent. The Little Turk is a wonderful young man and makes me very proud to be his father.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!