The Nomination Is In: December 26, 2009; The Sir Beaufort Stakes Grade III; 1 Mile on Turf at Santa Anita

Pictured left is Kip Deville, the 2006 winner of the Grade III Sir Beaufort Stakes at Santa Anita Park. We continue to pray that Kip survives a battle against failing health. This is opening day at Santa Anita, an exciting day with the unveiling of a John Henry statue and a parade by 2009 Horse of the Year Zenyatta. Good stuff!

Let's go!

Race 7 Santa Anita, post time 5:30 ET; The Sir Beaufort Stakes Grade III; 1 Mile on Turf for 3 YOs.



It's a rather unaccomplished group after The Usual Q.T. and Massone. The Usual Q.T. has a nice resume; 5 straight Wins, 5 straight improving Beyers, a last race best 100 BSF, 2 of 2 at SA, 6 of 6 in the money on Turf, 3 Turf Miles and 3 Wins, 9 of 10 lifetime in the money, a Grade I winner and the race career earnings leader. Not bad for a $12,500 Unusual Heat gelding! Will go off at less then even money so let's take a stand that he will win and then insert into the bet runners 2-4 in a mixture of straight picks and boxes, something I call a matrix, and see if we can't hit a superfecta.

For Place I like Massone. I'll shade him up to win on a few tickets, but for the most part I like him right here. No races at this distance. 5 straight races with 90+ BSF including an even 100 BSF at LaD in the Super Derby, a no match Show finish. Gomez up for Trainer McAnally, who by the way, does not have super trainer stats. A late goer, with less distance will have to go sooner but has the skill too.

The crap shoot begins for the Show Spot and 4th. It's not a bad thing as some longer odds here could increase the payout to make these bets worth it from risk/reward perspective. A group of horses of similar quality make up the pool I'm backing. Pleasure Ride, son of Candy Ride (Arg), is 9 of 14 in the money in 2009, 7 of 7 in the money on Turf and 4 of 4 in the money at distrance, as well as 2 of 2 in the money at SA. The Hollendorfer/Solis combination has been competitive and the horse has run off 7 straight game efforts. Watch the tote, worth at least one $2 buck win bet if >8-1 and a few tickets will slip him into Place. Little separates Pleasure Ride from Riviera Cocktail and Tamborim. That leaves me Gallant Son, Mr. Rod, Quoted and Brenthurst as the only horses right now I'm not accounting for with Quoted and Brenthurst my only confirmed tosses.

Don't make these decisions too soon. Watch the tote, the weather, the turf condition, and the changes and adjust your base handicap and bet strategy accordingly. Consistency, Consistency, Consistency. I hope Santa left this for you in your stocking because its the best tool for long term success.

Merry Christmas, Have Fun and Turk Out!

Breeder's Cup Preview: The Mile

Breeder's Cup Mile, G1. 3 yo and up October 25,2008.

A strong field of entrants, some of whom may go in different races, but we'll pretend for now that they all run the mile. The Turk is having a real ball looking at the Europeans, studying the pedigrees, the PP's, and trying to sort out how they will fare with so many intangibles: How did they ship? How will they like the hard and fast turf? They seem so strong on paper and on video, but the races are run on the track, not in The Form as Papa Turk likes to tell me. Speaking of Papa Turk, he needs a pacemaker. He's a kind and loving father and the rest of the Turk clan is there for him. I also will be telling him not to watch the Raven's Pass because this horse may be too much for his ticker right now.

Raven's Pass, a 3 yo bred at Stonerside Stable in KY has won his last two races. This video is from his last race, beating Henrythenavigator in a tough stretch run at Ascot in the QE II Stakes at 1 mile, G1, on September 27, 2008. This horse may go in the Classic, but I couldn't wait any longer to show some video on him.



And I'd be remiss to not show Henrythenavigator beating Raven's Pass at the Sussex Stakes, G1, a 1 mile at Goodwood on July 20, 2008. I liked Raven's Pass in the loss still, digging in deep and losing by a head. If they meet in the Classic, I see no reason why Raven's Pass won't finish in front.



Kip Deville, the defending Breeder's Cup Mile Champion is coming off of the Woodbine Mile where he just didn't fire when he needed to and lost to a very game, and unfortunately absent Rahy's Attorney. This is still a beast of a 5 yo, capable of a 110 Beyer rating and not intimidated by the Euro's. While watching this race, pay attention to fellow entrant Ventura (104 Beyer). He's a steady 103 Beyer his past three races, including a nice G1 in June beating Lady of Venice and Together Forever. The Turk thinks if Ventura would have won the Woodbine Mile we'd be looking at <4-1. He didn't and I'll be watching the tote board minutes before post looking for good value.




Whatsthescriptis an interesting horse and this video is the Del Mar Mile, G2, from August 24, 2008. Fellow entrant Bold Chieftain Placed. Also watch for another entrant, Daytona.



The Shadwell Turf Mile,G1, from KEE on October 4, 2008 featured four of the entrants. Thorn Song (105 Beyer), Shakis (102 Beyer), Lord Admiral (102 Beyer) and War Monger (102 Beyer), as well as Rahy's Attorney all battled for a blanket finish after Thorn Song. There was alot of game efforts to like here.



Some of the other entrants, Goldikova and Precious Kitten I have highlighted in other posts. I'm going to skip over Awesome Gem and US Ranger (no disrespect Col. Morgan).

Lots to digest.