The Nomination Is In: The Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs

Happy Thanksgiving and Welcome to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share the musings of an old school handicapper with you today.  I've been blogging the Clark Handicap for many years and I'm reusing a post of mine from 5 years ago, 2011.  I figure if the Zayatt's can reuse a runner from that day, Prayers for Relief, I could reuse this as well.

Before I go too far,  I am thankful for the economic means that allows me to raise my family; I thank my employer. I thank my loving family. I cherish my friends, even though the introvert that I am doesn't make me a very social friend. I thank my pets.  I of course, thank my God.

Baseball fans get all misty eyed talking about Wrigley Field and Fenway Park, and as a hockey fan, I was saddened to see our Buffalo Memorial Auditorium condemned and knocked down in the name of luxury suites and more concessions. There is something special about these old places; places you shared highs and lows with, maybe with your father, your friends, your girlfriend, now your wife, your children.

Fenway and Wrigley were built in 1911 and 1914 respectively. Churchill Downs has existed since 1875, with the iconic twin spires going up in 1895. The driving force behind the creation of the track was Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark, grandson of the famous American explorer, General William Clark of the William and Clark expedition of 1804-1806, the first transcontinental expedition of the United States, and whose mother was from one of Kentucky's first and leading families, the Churchill's.

At the age of 29, Meriwether Clark saw the first edition of this race run. As in all things in life, you don't really own something unless you really own it, and his mother's two brothers left the land to others after their death and Meriwether found himself as nothing more than a race steward by 1897. Already hurt deeply by poor financial investments, and followed by the loss of the track, Meriwether committed suicide in 1899 at the age of 53 years old. One can't help but think he stands along the rail along with all the other horse players we've said goodbye to over the years, players like Shawn Murphy, Rose Rizzo and Tiznow Reynolds.  Our dead horse players  watch these equine heroes run over the same route of dirt in South of Louisville like they been doing for the past 141 years.

I love old racetracks. I stare out at the track and I see and hear the ghosts of races past thundering up the stretch. The Clark Handicap is a tradition of mine, a wonderful post Thanksgiving Day event that I look forward too, an echo of the season that has essentially concluded, a harbinger of the coming winter, and a hint of handicap division to come once the sun returns.

Let's get after this!




I'm leaning towards Noble Bird being my fairly tepid Chalk.  3 of 4 in the money at Churchill Downs, 3 wins in 6 starts at the distance, a trainer-jock combo clipping along at a 29% win rate at CD, this on the lead runner has my nod and we'll see if he can hold what should be his lead at the top of the stretch.

Here's Noble Bird winning the G2 Hagyand Fayette  at KEE in late October setting a track record in the process.



I sure like Gun Runner an awful lot, just another great son of Candy Ride (Arg).  He won the G3 Matt Wynn here in June, his first back off Show in the Kentucky Derby.  I'm not a big fan of first race back off Breeders' Cup efforts but I like the horse alot, he likes this track and he's 9 of 9 in the money on fast dirt.



Hopportunity is no stranger to the race and he's coming in off an outclassed Breeders' Cup Classic. I think you have to respect Baffert bringing him here as well as his Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 win in early October.  He'll be coming late, which the Belmont stretch played well to his strength,  and he should have enough speed in front of him to make a late move.



Shaman Ghost, the Ontario bred 4 YO, has been on the shelf since winning at 9-1 in The Woodward G1. first start at CD, 4 wins in 8 starts on fast dirt, 1 win at the distance in 1 try, 6 wins in 12 lifetime starts.



Do I have last year's winner, Effinex, too low? he came off a stalking trip in last year's edition and if he's in that spot again this year of course he'll be dangerous. I'm covering him in multiple spots.



The last horse I'm going to consider is a bit of a wildcard, Roger Attfield's Are You Kidding Me.  No wins in two dirt starts, winless in only attempt at CD, the modestly bred 6 YO has a combined 29 turf and fake dirt starts, mostly at Woodbine, and he is running very well but this seems like a very odd placing for him.  I like him showing up in the ticket, as I suspect he will be on the lead and dropping like a stone near the wire.  Here he is at Churchill Downs running a flat effort in the Stephen Foster Handicap.



So what to do with all this? First of all, I love the big field of handicap division warriors.  This race would be an example of what I describe to people as to why I love horse racing.  I love the stories, I love seeing a 44 start 6 YO still doing what he does.  Everyone loves the triple crown races, but this level of Grade 1 action is what does it for me.  I'm tossing at my own peril Breaking Lucky, Mr. Z, Prayers for Relief and Hawaakom.  Murphy's Law: One of them will screw us up.

I'm really torn, and while a horse racing fan can be torn, a bettor cannot be.  My base bet (below) isn't even worth me pricing out as I'm never going to make such an investment in a wide open race.

After mulling about a $69 bet $1 Super and a $50 bet $2 Exacta I settled on $1 Tri bet for $20 which I would be OK with taking to $2/$40.  The bet forces me to single Noble Bird and put the rest of my survivor pool under him.  Regardless of the horse I single, the bet construction will be what I settle on.  What do I mean by that?  I'm not sold on Noble Bird and I'm not sure if he's going to get smaller or bigger than 4-1, so if Gun Runner down  to 8-1, perhaps I flip flop Noble Bird and Gun Runner.

Watch the tote and only invest what you are prepared to lose.  My exotic hit rate on Tri's has been hovering around 25% but my IRR is positive, albeit slightly.  That's over many years.  I have had stretches where it is mind numbing horrible and also savant like fantastic. Welcome to horse racing!

To bet or not to bet?  When you sit down with a card, certain races will pop out to you, after you have invested the time and effort to develop the craft, that are much easier marks than this race.  As a horse player, why bet a hard race when you can take advantage of a no brainer race on the same card or a different track.  Don't fall into the trap of betting every race but if you handicap, take the time to build out your bets, review what coulda shoulda woulda when its over, and be honest with yourself.

Have fun with this friends.  Happy Turk(ey) Day.  Turk(s) out!

The Nomination is In: The Suburban Handicap, Grade 2 at Belmont

Fit to Fight, 1984 and last NY Handicap Triple Champ

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing blog focused exclusively on handicapping and bet construction.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan through their Handicapper's Corner for allowing me to share my thoughts, derivatives of handicapping methods I've learned over the years from the writings of Tom Ainsile (Richard Carter) and Brad Free primarily.

That handsome fella is Fit to Fight, the fourth and last winner of the New York Handicap Triple, a three race sequence that included the Metropolitan Handicap, the Brooklyn Handicap and the Suburban Handicap.  Obviously it would be hard to win now that the super geniuses moved the Met Mile onto the same card as the Brooklyn Handicap.

Would it be so hard to create a NY Series with a race on Wood Memorial Day, the Suburban and then the Woodward?  Racing in my opinion does little to excite the fans.  I've had a hard time watching  some of the major televised events over past six months because every telecast eventually leads to an American Pharoah exposition.  Even a Triple Crown was squandered by the people that market this sport.  This isn't the type of blog that gets into these sort of issues, but it doesn't mean The Turk isn't wildly frustrated by the lack of progress in making this sport less of a cultural backwater.

Let's get it on!




The weather might be wet.  Make sure you keep your eye on the  Scratches/Changes and Track Condition. I'm Ok saying I think my handicap is good regardless if the dirt is fast or wet, but my bet construction may change a bit.

I always like to get a visual look at the track and the  runners recent efforts.  Here we have Shaman Ghost looking very strong at 1 1/2 miles over Turco Bravo and Samraat (yawn).





Stephen Foster with Eagle just missing for Place and Effinex in a forgettable trip.



Noble Bird in the Met Mile.  I'm posting just to drool over Frosted again.



Sometimes the video/visual handicapping helps, other times it just provides a fun distraction from the task at hand: handicapping a classic distance handicap.  I'm going with Eagle as a very tepid chalk. I could make a case for Shaman Ghost or Effinex but I'm going with Eagle on a driving finish from more than three lengths off the lead. Negatives: First BEL start, no starts at the distance.  Positives include 13 of 15 in the money on fast dirt, a smokin' 436 Tomlin on off tracks and some consistent game efforts of late.  I fully expect him to be in the money but his drive could come up short.

Throw out the Effinex effort at the Stephen Foster.  Defending champion here, has tussled and won against some true Grade 1 horses, with 2 wins in 8 starts at BEL, 5 of 6 in the money at the distance, capable in the slop.  Trainer Jenkens, uncoupled with his Shaman Ghost entry, has Mike Smith up here.  Will he go on the lead or try to give him one big run is a wildcard for me.

Shaman Ghost ran a hell of a Brooklyn.  Cutting back a full 1/4 mile,  this Ontario bred represents a good price and a chance to make a nice win bet return.  5 of 6 in the money on fast dirt, a big wet track Tomlinson, 2 of 2 in the money at the distance, 2 of 2 in the money at BEL, 7 of 10 in the money lifetime and a :59 3/5ths bullet 6 days ago.  Light the fuse!

Noble Bird I don't think is a win candidate. Very inconsistent, with alternating good and bad efforts. His putrid Met Mile came off a career best 110 Beyer Pimlico Special.





I'm not that high on Mubtaahij: He made $2.0 MM in earnings for finishing well back of California Chrome in Dubai World Cup.




First time lasix, a 20% win angle for Trainer McLaughlin.  I'm not a big fan of the the first effort off the heavy travel to Dubai.

Seven year old Turco Bravo (Chi) is the wily old veteran of the group. 51 career starts, 4 straight 90+ Beyers, 7 of 8 in the money at the distance but slow.   Possible he hits the exotics.

I'm tossing Samraat just because you can't cover everyone (unless you're a hack).  Slow and his career Beyer was two years ago as Place to Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial.  I'm not sure he's run a good race since early 2014.  I'm tossing Tapin Mojo who enters off a $12,500 claimer.  A sign o' the times.

I have no idea what I'm doing from a bet perspective yet but all things equal my bet will match my handicap.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Oaklawn Handicap G2

Blofeld:  NYRA Photo

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk and thank you to the Handicapper's Corner of The Thorofan for hosting this post today.

That good looking four year old is Blofeld,  the son of my favorite thoroughbred of the past ten years, Quality Road.   Why was Quality Road my favorite?  Who can say why, he just was! I don't think he's the best horse in the race, but this gambler is looking for value and I like his chances at 4-1 or so.

The Turk comes out of his horse racing slumber each year around this time.  The handicap division races leading up to this point were a mixed bag of ho hum and exciting.  The Kentucky Derby prep races don't do much for me.  I'll get hot and heavy into the racing cards after this weekend's Oaklawn Handicap, as well as the Arkansas Derby, my favorite and one of the most indicative Derby prep races.

My first impression at looking at the Oaklawn Handicap card was eh.  It takes something special to get my horse racing fan's blood flowing, and it takes something subtle to get my horse racing handicappers mind intrigued.  I'm not sure I see either in this collection of runners, perhaps a lack of real stars outside of California Chrome in the handicap division.  When you think of possible stars, Effinex is a minor star by now, I think Blofeld could freak out some fast 1 mile races, but Upstart is very intriguing, with a nice start in 2016 with a win in the Razorback G3 here in mid March. "Absolutely smoked" in the Kentucky Derby is on many a resume of great and exciting Handicap Division stars. Here's hoping we find some stars.

Let's get after it!





I'll be honest, I think I'm a pretty good handicapper but I don't have much of an opinion on this race after studying the card.  I don't pay much attention to Morning Line odds but I'm guessing my handicap follows the ML's pretty closely.  Effinex would be considered chalk, but not indelible ink. If he goes into the gate at 2-1 or closer to even money would it surprise anyone?  As a handicapper if you feel strongly about the chalk then don't let that scare you off, just single him in the win spot and look for value in Place and Show.   Alternatively, cover him in a small group in Win and Place and cast a slightly wider net hoping that the longer tote board odds can come up and take it at the line.

My top four could have a blanket over them, maybe a 1.5-2.5 panel blanket, but they are very close.  I am tepidly picking Blofeld to win his first race at the distance: Trainer Pletcher brings him in on a 31-60 day layoff, something Pletcher wins 24% of the time and off a win, something Pletcher wins 28% of the time.  I think he'll stalk what should be plenty of front end speed and fire off of that.

The most likely winner is Effienx, rebounding after a fast start/slow finish in Santa Anita Handicap.



2 wins at the distance, 33% win rate on fast dirt after 18 starts, 33% win rate lifetime after 21 starts, the 5 YO will carry the heaviest weight at 121 pounds but don't get too emotional about that.  Trainer Jerkens had him running two fast works at BEL leading up to this.  He's the best in this field, more than capable.  I'm covering W-P-and maybe S.

Upstart comes in off a win in the Razorback.  36% win rate on fast dirt on 11 tries, no wins at the distance.  The Razorback was a really nice win and he may press into the top two on the toteboard by post time.  In my handicap he's slowing as the closers are passing.  Place or Show seems very reasonable.

I like Financial Modeling.  I'll really like him in G3 and G2 races.  He's had some time to rest and train off the Donn.  He'll be pressing the pace and I think he'll be fading at the end.  2 of 4 at the distance, 3 wins in 7 fast dirt starts and 5 of 6 in the money in 2015.  $220,000 of winnings in 9 starts gives you the feeling he's in the deep end of the pool here.  Trainer Cox takes him into his barn from Trainer Brown and Cox is a 20% winner on 101 starts first time out.  Cox is a real rising star with a dazzling 27% win rate in Graded Stakes and 30% of routes.

I like Oaklawn journeyman, the 8 YO Domain's Rap, to possibly bring value to a winning ticket.  I think he's got a shot at Show or 4th.  You know he'll run  a low to mid 90's Beyer and he'll run the whole race.  You never know when horses start to get eased who will slip in.  I don't think much of Carve until he shows some better form.  His name and his rep will be bet harder than it should be which should ease the tote board a bit.

If I was playing the race it would most likely just be a simple 10 cent trifecta: 1-8-6 OVER 1-8-6-4 OVER 1-6-4-7 OVER 6-4-7-2-5 for $7.70.  I don't really like those bets from a value perspective so If forced to be aggressive I'd go: 8 OVER 1-6-4-7 OVER 1-6-4-7 a $1 bet for $12.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Big 'Cap at Santa Anita

Shared Belief

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk. Let me start by thanking the good people at The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today at the Handicappers Corner.

Shared Belief.  2015 Winner of the Santa Anita Handicap, The 4 YO Candy Ride son was as beautiful, as he was impressive as a runner.  These horses, so powerful, can also be so fragile.  I still mourn the death of Shared Belief this past December, and selfishly I wish he was alive to bring some life to a handicap division that lacks star power and 100+ Beyers.

Racing will never escape these deaths, it's a part of the sport.  In a game where many people reduce these animals to a number and a price, this handicapper is proud to say I'm a horse racing fan first, and a degenerate gambler second, and The Turk and the Little Turk always remembers the fallen.

Today's version of the Big Cap may not have Shared Belief, but it does boast NY bred Effinex, with Mike Smith up, the winner of the last the three editions of this race.  Not too shabby.  Let's get it on!






I was never that high on Effinex, perhaps it was the breeding, but $2.0 million dollars in winnings later and the 5 YO son of Mineshaft appears to be peaking.  Effinex had   a very strong end of 2015, with a win in the G1 Clark, a strong Breeders' Cup Classic Place and a G2 Suburban win.  Trainer Jerkens is 23% off the long layoff, and this was a long layoff since The Clark at Churchill the day after Thanksgiving, but he's training well.  I think the race is his to loose and he's a candidate to single.  Carrying top weight of 123.

Just behind Effinex I see a group of horses blanketed together, all with warts.  Cyrus Alexander has been training well for Jerry Hollendorfer.  Hollendorfer has worked nicely in a progression of 4f,5f,6f and 7f one week apart for the last month.  The 4 YO is 9 of 12 lifetime in the money, 7 of 9 in the money on fast dirt, 7 of 9 in the money at Santa Anita, and trying the distance for the first time.  His 98 Beyer lifetime best isn't good enough but something tells me this 4 YO is about to stage a second act to his career.  I guess we'll see. This is a good time to take a look at the G2 San Antonio, where Cyrus Alexander had no rally and finished well up the track.




Hard Aces and Donworth are in the mix with Cyrus Alexander.  Both horses have run well at Santa Anita, but I don't get the feeling that any of them can win.  Donworth has never tried the distance, Hard Aces has one once at the distance, a big Gold Cup win by a nose over Hoppertunity.  The wild card here is Imperative, who I have in the Show and Exotic spot but I'll be covering all the way up to win most likely.  3 of 29 lifetime wins, 1 of 16 lifetime wins on fast dirt, 0 of 6 at the distance and 0 of 11 at Santa Anita.  That is an ugly stat line, yet the San Antonio was there for him and he owns the race's second best lifetime Beyer.  The 6 YO Bernadini seems to be on the upswing. He's too low on my scale at B- and you have to respect this truly erratic feast or famine runner.

General a Rod isn't that interesting to me except the race is one of the few big Grade 1 races that Trainer Todd Pletcher has never one.  I'm not a hater or a fan of Trainer Pletcher and I'm not surprised that this one has eluded him.  It's a California thing.  The horse is a name, names attract money, and that's good when you don't think much of the chances.

I'm not sure yet what my bet strategy is. The rains are coming and while they are expected to be gone by Saturday, I won't bet if it's anything other than listed as Fast.  Most likely  I'll look to single Effinex in the Win spot, with 6-7-3-8 covered underneath.

Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: The Clark Handicap G1 at CD

Thank you to The Thorofan for allowing this idiot, hack handicapper an opportunity to talk ponies with you all.

Poor Meriweather Lewis Clark. He did so much for our sport yet died by his own hand at age 53. The Clark Handicap is a part of my Thanksgiving tradition, tun across a route of dirt located on property donated and named for Meriweather's mother's family, the Churchill's.

 I remember Mr. Clark every year as the race named in his honor shouts THANKSGIVING to me as much as turkey, stuffing, gravy.

Anyway, we have a nice post holiday smorgasbord of runners in this event with 7 legitimate Grade 1 horses going head to head.  I don't know about you, but that alone get's my blood going.    Let's get it on!





When I look at the past performances, and I look at who likes to race within 2 lengths of the lead and who doesn't I have a mixed bag.  Who likes the lead:  Mr. Z (have you seen him race?) for sure, Race Day, Effinex, and Protonico  most of the time, and Hopportunity, Keen Ice and Frivolous, not so much.  Of my two tosses, only Shotgun Kowboy appears to be willing to add to the pace.

So what am I expecting?  While some bad weather is headed there, it looks like the rains may not start until around post time.  I expect Hopportunity to fire off the pace and retain his Clark Handicap title.  Alternatives?  The pace could go awry and then I think Race Day or  Effinex have the best win potential of the remaining group.  Filling out Place and Show and if you want to go into the exotic Superfecta you most likely will need some luck or alot of covers which I never advocate.  Remember, winning your wager at any cost, is not a good strategy for race track capital management.   While we might be gambling, their are river boat gamblers and there are shrewd gamblers.  Be shrewd!

Hopportunity, Protonico and Race Day last met in the Hagyard Fayette, G2 at KEE




I've never been big on betting Breeders' Cup contestants in their next race back.  Keen Ice comes in on 2nd off a long layoff and first off was Breeders' Cup Classic.  The 3 YO son of
already has $1.8 MM in winnings.  By the way Trainer Roman's is 13% off the break and he places Lanerie up from the jock pool, and together they win 26% of time at CD.  Locals!

Mr. Z. comes in off the Breeders' Cup Mile where he was rank early and faded late.  The 3 YO Malibu Moon will be a major pace player but expect him to crack around 8 panels.

Frivolous, the lone lady, comes in off the Distaff (let it be known the Turk never referred to it as a "ladies classic.")  5 of 7 in the money at CD, 5 of 8 in the money at the distance, but I think she's just not fast enough here.

Effinex was first loser, aka Place, against American Pharoah in the Breeders' Cup Classic, so so in Gold Cup and the Woodward and running at CD for the first time.  Plenty fast with tactical speed.

Race Day's best efforts have been on/near the lead.  I think the 4 YO will be sent out fast from the far end of gate and could wire the race.

Whatever you do,, have fun with it and keep your betting based in the realities of your bank account.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic

Tonalist: image by Travis Lindquist

First of all, thank you to The Thorofan for allowing me to hack my way through the handicap of the richest race in North America, the Breeders' Cup Classic.  I am clearly not worthy!

The Turk's been on a blogging holiday since mid summer.  Sometimes I need a break from the game, and after a very emotional Triple Crown season, I needed some racing downtime.  At the same time I took a handicapping break I worked more on completing my MBA.  I've learned enough to know that handicapping and gambling on horse racing is a horrible investment, even for most of the best handicappers, so if you are reading this handicap and you lost more money than you should have this weekend, stop, this isn't a panacea for what ails you.  Seek Help! That's The Ol' Turk's public message.  I handicap because I enjoy the mental exercise and I've learned over the years I am good enough to stay near break even over the long run, punctuated by periods of incredible success and incredible failure.

Not much handicapping is really needed for a race like the Breeders' Cup Classic .  We have a Triple Crown Winner, American Pharoah, six million dollar plus earners, and no real wildcards like a freaky good filly such as Beholder, a scratch.  We have a classy 3 YO son of Galileo, Gleaneagles (Ire) who has never run in North American, never run on fast dirt and hasn't been past 1 mile.  I call this noise, a distraction.

Let's stop rambling and get after this!





I'm not as hung up on American Pharoah's Travers Stakes loss as I am that he's had a grueling year and while class and skill could still carry him to a win, a 4-5 odds or worse, do I really want to back that as a gambler?  If you want to be a fan, great, and we need more of them, but I'm a gambler, a race track investor, and I don't see much reason to risk capital on a bet like that.  All that said, I still think he's due to regress and it creates a real opportunity to find some value.  I like the work tab Baffert has put him through and I think he's still top 4.



Unfortunately for me, I've identified Tonalist as my chalk, and he'll most likely be bet down below 4-1.  I've made some very good money on Christophe Clement's turf runners over the past several years and I love the ride he's had with the 4 YO son of Tapit.

Stepping back, I have a group of five horses that I think are are possible for Place or Show.  I think Frosted, along with American Pharoah and Tonalist is the only other I may cover in the win spot.  Expecting 10-1 or worse, the 3 YO son of Tapit, this maybe purely a value insertion and most likely I will flip flop Keen Ice and Frosted in my actual bets.  I like Keen Ice better actually, with a good finish at the Haskell and the win at the Travers. I'd like to not see him drop to under 5-1.

Smooth Roller is my looney tunes idea.  A very raw 4 YO gelded Hard Spun, he ran a beautiful Awesome Again in late September and I'm willing to entertain him pulling of Show or the exotic 4th spot.



Did I skip Honor Code?  No, but I can't cover everyone.  I've got him in the RED/TOSS group but again in full disclosure, if his odds lengthen past 7-1 I misght be inclined to cover him in Show and 4th.

Who will screw me up?  Frosted and Effinex.  I like Effinex an awful lot.  His Suburban Handicap, beating Tonalist, was very very game.  His Woodward and his Jockey Club Gold Cup were both regressions for the New York Bred 4 Yo son of Mineshaft.  Back to Frosted, he hasn't won past 1 1/8 miles.  I think I have him too high and I have to put some thought into my final bets.



So I don't this very often, in fact I've never done it in 8 years of blogging, but I've got an alternative universe handicap I might actually like better than the one I led with.

What's different and what's the same?

I brought Keen Ice up to a share of the Win Spot.  I brought Effinex up to Place or Show, as well as Honor Code.  I dropped Frosted and Smooth Roller outside of the Top 4 and I left American Pharoah right where I had him.




Whatever you do, have fun with it!

Turk Out