Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 14, 2009

Aqueduct Race 3: The Dearly Precious Stakes 65K; 6f on the inner dirt for fillies 3 YO.



I was not enamored with this 5 horse field, but I had no doubt in my mind I could predict the top three horses. The dilemma I had was do I box or not? Looking at the tote board, I would have been boxing the top three bettors choices and I estimated the trifecta after the bet was no more then 25 bucks or so. While it would have worked in my favor this time, I protect my bankroll and this just isn't the type of bet for the conservative bettor I am. I passed and the trifecta paid $54.00.

I was a bit surprised at how dominant Dream Play was in the stretch. I liked Chatterbox and was right that Lisa Too was a bit overheated, and she was way over bet.

The game the Turk plays is small bets, mid sized rewards, and that means I'll sometimes leave money on the table, but it could have easily have gone south and you always have to weigh the risk and reward.

Tampa Bay Downs race 9: The Endeavour Stakes Grade III; For fillies and mares 4 YO and up.



I really liked this field. I knew Ballymore Lady and Elusive Lady were good horses, but I expected more of an effort from Ginger Brew and Stormy West. I had a straight tri bet that mirrored my pre race choices and lost.


Tampa Bay Downs Race 10: Sam F. Davis Stakes Grade III; 1 1/16 on dirt for 3 YOs.



Amateurcapper (http://amateurcapper.blogspot.com/) had talked up Sumo in a comment I saw him leave at another bloggers site. I tip my hat to him, as Sumo was truly live and long. I did win a nice $13.50 win bet on General Quarters but lost the straight tri I bet based on my pre race choices.


Sam F. Davis Stakes



Santa Anita Race 9: The Santa Maria Handicap Grade I; 1 1/16 miles on pro-ride for fillies and mares 4 YO and up.



I was shocked at how low the bettors bet down Visit. I think she's a fine horse, and I had her pre-race in a superfecta, which I didn't place, but I can't believe she went off as the chalk. Checking the board just before post, I liked the value on Santa Teresita and cashed a $13.40 win bet.



It wasn't a sexy collection of bets I made, but productive and I continue to scratch out decent returns with low risk. They won't write books about the Turk, but it ain't about sexy, it's about positive cash flow.

The Little Turk had a great birthday and I thank all the folks who sent him birthday cheer. We'll be back tomorrow for a pre race look at the Grade III Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn.

The Nominations Are In: February 14, 2009

The Turk is enjoying Valentine's Day, even if the races today are a bit underwhelming. This is a special day in the Turk household as well, as Little Turk is nine year's old and takes another step along the monopoly board of life. In each one of these races, I think I'll form a betting strategy just before the race goes to post. It will be a simple exacta or tri bet, but I'm on the hunt for value and I need the tote board to compare against my grades as I hunt for value and ROI.


Aqueduct Race 3: The Dearly Precious 65K: 6 furlongs of dirt for 3 YO fillies.


A seemingly ho-hum Aqueduct marque race today, I think Lisa Too will have the chalk, and I'm hoping to get Chattertown at a decent price. A five horse field may make me pass as I don't see a real live and long in this bunch.


Tampa Bay Downs Race 9: Endevour Grade 3: 1 1/16 Miles on Turf for fillies and mares 4 YO and Up.



Turk really likes this field for the most part, especially Ginger Brew, Stormy West and American Border. Zip Trick will go off at a really attractive price and I think he could make some hay. Enough to win? I dunno. This is a really competitive race in my opinion, and all my A's and B's could win.


Tampa Bay Downs Race 10: The Sam F. Davis G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt for 3 YOs.



No strong opinions yet on this group either. I don't generally bet to win any horse with A.P. in it's name (except when I always did well with Indy)but maybe this one is different. Another strong field and strong fields to me are great places to find real value on a simple win bet. Nine of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are present, but , I like non-nominee Musket Man's works and last race.


Santa Anita Race 9: The Santa Maria G1: 1 1/16 miles on pro-ride for fillies and mares 4 YO and Up.



And my lone Grade 1 today, I may throw the Turk grades off a bit as I hunt for value. I have liked what I've seen from Visit (GB), especially at SA. The 4 YO has Frankel and Gomez in her corner. There is no real reason for Leah's Secret to get beat, and her current form is solid, but I don't think she's the best horse by much. Some real head shakers here too. What do you make of Country Star, Santa Teresita or Bsharpsonata? I think all can be excellent older horses in the class this year.

Little Turk likes Lisa Too, Stormy West, Top Seed and Country Star today.