The Nomination Is In: The Late Pick 4 at Fair Grounds including the Grade 2 Risen Star

Oh Mighty Risen Star, how we gather today in your honor and memory. Winner of the 1988 Preakness and Belmont Stakes, son of Secretariat and the namesake of today's key Kentucky Derby prep race.

The season is heating up quickly and this is one of the first all star weekends of the year, with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream tomorrow, and Union Rags and Algorithms getting it going on the Derby Trail. As a horse racing fan this is the sort of stuff that stirs the slumbering soul.

The Turk hasn't been very sharp lately. I downshifted after the Breeders' Cup and while I've had some success in my non-blogged handicapping, I haven't been very good on the ones that mean the most to me, the one's I share with my readers and friends. I go through funks just like everyone else and its these funks I think about when I get on a run and I get comments from folks that I "never lose". Everyone loses friends, what I think I am good at is understanding when I'm in a funk I can't gamble my way out of it. For me, the best thing to do is to pull money back off the table and just handicap. When the handicapping is good, the betting will follow.

For now, I think I'm still in a funk and I am ratcheting up the number of races per week I'm analyzing and after doing this for many years I know very well, all funks will pass.

Let's get started with the Pick Four at Fair Grounds today!


Fair Grounds Races 9-12: First Post 4:55 Eastern Time



Track condition is not apparent yet. The track is currently listed as fast and the turf yielding. The weather today looks like a mixed bag. The biggest wild card for the pick four would be if races are pulled from the Turf. We'll deal with that as we go.

Race 9 is The Mineshaft Handicap, a Grade 3 event. Trainer Asmussen is having one heck of a meet at Fair Grounds and is atop the trainer standings. He saddles Thisskyhasnolimits who comes in off a career best 101 Beyer at this distance. 5 of 9 in the money at the distance and 8 of 16 in the money on fast dirt, the 5 YO son of Sky Mesa with Sellers up looks to go hot early and throttle the competition.

Coming with a late run with be Fast Alex: the 5 YO Jim Tafel bred son of Afleet Alex is attempting to give Greg Geier a much needed graded stakes victory.

Gladding ships in for Trainer John Sadler. Training very sharply at San Anita but on the bench since the Ack Ack where he couldn't hit the board after setting the hot pace. No wins at this distance, I'm expecting a fading finish and I'm not covering the win.

Alma d' Oro has Castellano up for Trainer Pletcher who's only started 2 races at Fair Grounds this meet. Set a dirt best 98 Beyer in a Show loss to Thiskyhasnolimits last time out. Pletcher 28% off the layoff he had after the Clark.

Pants on Fire has been on the shelf even longer, since the Haskell. Winner of the Louisiana Derby, training well but may need an effort to improve conditioning. Trainer Breen 10% winner off 180 day plus layoffs. Hot jock Napravnik is up.

Race 10 is a 5.5 panel turf sprint. I'm going to approach it as being on yielding turf. I most likely will bail out of a Pick 4 if either Race 10 or 12 is moved to the main track, so I'll be watching closely before I have to commit.

Zeb is a 5 YO gelding who is 3 for 3 on FG Turf and training sharply. Trainer Foley does well off the 61-180 day layoff, winning 22% of the time, and he wins 20% of the time he saddles with Napravnik. Class jump and longish layoff but I'm hunting for P4 value.

Cactus Son is a bit sharper and won on off-turf 25 January at this distance. Trainer Burgess wins 40% of of his turf sprints on 20 tries. Sellers up.

Country Day, Chamberlain Bridge and Lonesome Street all merit consideration. Chamberlain Bridge, hard to believe he's 8 now, still has wheels and looked very good on Fair Grounds yielding turf in December. he's got top weight today but ignore him at your peril.

Lonesome Street is cutting back in distance and is a wild card as to how Castellano positions him. I should cover but I won't.

Country Day is the one I'll most likely regret not covering, but you cant cover everyone. Let me repeat, you can't cover everyone, especially a horse that might end up at 2-1 and comes in off long layoff. Winless at FG, only 1 turf win in 8 starts for the 6 YO son of Speightstown. Strong, game effort Placing against Regally Ready in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. I like him if it shifts to the main track, along with Joe Hollywood and Southern Style.

In the Risen Star some highly talked about yet still unproven Triple Crown nominated runners head to the starting gate. Trainer Larry Jones has coupled entry Mark Valeski and Mr. Bowling for owner/breeder/former Governor Brereton Jones. Mr. Bowling was a head winner of the LeCompte. I'm backing Mark Valeski who comes in off a OC win and some nice work, with Napravnik, up.

El Padrino ran a smoking 100 Beyer in an OC at GP for Trainer Pletcher and he will surely get a good test today.

In a hunt for P4 value I may take a flyer on Afford, son of Street Sense, winner of an N1X here in early February. Z Dagger goes for Asmussen off the LeCompte head loss as the chalk to Mr. Bowling.

I'll be watching the early races and watching the tote board leading up to Race 9 before I make a decision on the pick four. As it sits now I've built a 3 X 3 X 3 X 3 =$81 1 dollar bet and that's too rich for how I feel as a handicapper right now. There's nothing wrong with taking a step back when you are struggling or when the conditions aren't optimal (off track, chance of surface switch etc) and just playing the races vertically instead of horizontally. Super High 5 is offered on race 12, I'd rather throw the dice at that then some stupid scratch lottery ticket.

Whatever you do personally, do it after careful thought.

Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 21, 2012; The Grade 3 LeCompte at Fair Grounds

Insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
Albert Einstein.

Here we go again, another year, another Derby trail. I have this wonderful comfort zone, my happy place, where my ROI is pretty phat and I feel like I actually know what I'm doing, but I just can't leave well enough alone. With the annual return of the Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll it's time I figure out these three year olds. We had a rollicking' good time last year and I hope you enjoy our Top 12 polls and the free spirited fun that goes into them. Joe Hirsch would not be amused. What Dear Ol' Mr. Hirsch would respect is the Derby Dozen folks were pretty high on Animal Kingdom last year, well most of them except this idiot bald fella who loved Archarcharch. Pictured above is Mighty Hard Spun, the 2007 winner of the LeComte. Picture by Jane and we thank her for our use.

It's most likely a wet day in the Big Easy tomorrow so keep your eyes on the changing track conditions and the tote board of course. As this is a CDI track, you'll just have to deal with the very lame track website.

Before I go to far I will admit the Turk has been in a real horse racing funk since the Breeders' Cup, which quite honestly, was not the most exciting two days of racing I've been to. Quite possibly the annual lamest excuse of an awards show was conducted last week, the Eclipse Awards, and I'm just appalled at the quality and depth of what is considered worthy champions. I really believe that a horse should have to achieve some sort of "super majority" of votes to win an award, and I don't think there is anything wrong with not having an annual winner if there isn't a deserving nominee, it shouldn't be the lesser of three evils. I was happy for winner Claire Novak, the enterprising young turf writer who is such a champion of good within our sport. Claire won for her journalism chops, her merits, not because of anything else, and Little Turk and I congratulate her. Long story short, I'm starting to feel it again. You can't fake it, and us humans, well were human, good weeks and bad. I thank my friend Steve at Wire Players who unwittingly rekindled my fire by getting the band back together again.

Let's get it on!

Thomas Amoss is a Fair Grounds Hall of Fame member and he has some pretty impressive horse in the outside spot, Shared Property, a gelded son of Scat Daddy. He's got the biggest Tomlinson for the distance (396) and is a Grade 3 winner over the fake stuff already. Amoss wins 33% of the time, in 396 starts, over dirt.

Larry Jones, the Turk's personal favorite dirt horse trainer, brings in Mr. Bowling, a modestly bred son of Istan for breeder/owner Brereton C. Jones, the former Governor of Kentucky and a righteous man who thought it was a good idea to post these in schools. 2 wins on fast dirt, a win at the distance and some very impressive work over the FG track, including a fine :58 and 4/5ths on the 9th of January and a 1:00 and 2/5ths at 5 furlongs and 1:12 4/5ths at 6 furlongs, all in past month. Robbie Albarado up.

You have to respect 22% FG winner Rosie Napravnik when teamed with 29% FG winner Al Stall Jr. The combo works at a 36% win clip at FG on 25 tries. They together bring in Stormy Atlantic's son, Seven Lively Sins. Stall wins off the 61-180 day layoff 38% of the time. Not sure if he's a finisher and looking the other way right now.

One of Zayat's coupled entries is Z Dager, coming in off a sloppy effort at FG at this distance, taking the wire at 14.7 to 1. Assmussen trains the son of Mizzen Mast. The other half of the couple is Dan and Sheila, trained by Pletcher with Johnny V up. Second effort in career, breaking maiden in December at 1 mile at Gulfstream.

Exfactor, an Exchange Rate colt (very handsome by the way), has been very consistent in 4 starts, winning three over the dirt with a a Place in his MSW first try. Won at 6f at FG last time out by a nose and a Grade 3 winner.

An Artie Shiller son, Hammers Terror, looks pretty solid working up at FG for this effort. Trainer Stidham clips along at 25% wins over dirt but only 3% winner in this angle, the 2nd effort off a 45-180 day layoff. That's gotta just be a quirk in the stats? Hard to say, but the numbers are the numbers. :59 3/5ths at 5f and :48 flat at 4f, both at FG, as well as one win at this distance on fast dirt at FG. Tomlinson on wet dirt lowest in the field.

Capetown Devil, a 3 YO gelded son of Cape Town, is also a winner at this distance over this fast dirt at FG on 30 December. 3 for 3 lifetime. Trainer David Carol 0% winner, 4 starts in graded stakes.

So what am I thinking?



I'll string some superfectas and trifectas off of my base handicap; If it gets as sloppy as it appears it may, I'll expect some scratches and we'll just slide the coupled entry of Dan and Sheila and Z Dager up as needed into the top four.

I had a good time tonight handicapping this FG card and blogging about this race. Race 9, The Louisiana Handicap is really my sweet spot, handicap division over a route of dirt, and Mr. Jim Tafel has Fast Alex cranked up already and Pletcher has Alma d' Oro. This will be a fun race, goes to post at 3:55 CT, 4:55 ET.

Have Fun, Turk Out!