The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap Grade 1

I love the fun days in racing; early in the season its usually all about the three year olds, but this upcoming weekend is one of the premier handicap division races of the year, The Santa Anita Handicap, or just The Big Cap.

I'd be remiss to not thank the good people of The Thorofan who indulge my love of the handicap division and allow me to handicap for their Handicappers Corner some of my favorite races of the year.  The Thorofan is an organization run by race fans, for race fans.  While The 'Ol Turk is not the most socially active person in the world, I know many Thorofan members and I know personally what a wonderful experience it is to meet and spend time with like minded folks, and us horse fans all know how rare it is to meet horse racing folks in everyday life.
I was happy to see at least 8 horses in this field, and I would have liked to have seen a few more, as the quality at the top is really good and a few more horses may have helped make the value a bit more appealing.  I'll be honest, with a 2-1,9-5, and a 5-2 morning line on three horses, I'd typically walk away from this race.  Why Turk?  I just don't see the value.  If you are going to play it, keep it real.

Let's get after it and figure out what to do with this.



Right off the bat, remember to check the weather and the track conditions before you consider your bet.  I think it will be dry and fast.

When I look at the Past Performances the unmistakable first blush take away is that Will Take Charge, Mucho Macho Man and Game on Dude have an impressive collection of Grade 1 wins amongst themselves: Clark,  Travers, Breeders Cup Classic, Pacific Cup Classic and Hollywood Gold Cup, and $14.3 MM in earnings.  One of the things I love about the Handicap Division is the track record of these animals, with the big three having a collective 70 starts with 40 wins between them, I know what to expect and there is enough of a sample size to guide an information handicapper like myself. I'm worthless with 2 YO's because I have no numbers to work with.  As in life, and handicapping, Know Thyself, and I know and bet my strengths and I try to pass on the things I don't do well.

I say all that because I think one of the big three will win.  Where to slot them is where things get interesting.  I worked backward from the pace:  I expect to see Game on Dude set the pace.  I'd expect :46 and change in the first 4 panels with perhaps Imperative going with him.  I haven't liked the Game on Dude on dirt for a bit now:  two poor SA starts in a row, a solid Clark on a gutty ship in by Baffert, before that two fake dirt wins, and his San Antonio-Santa Anita Handicap-Charles Town Classic back to back to back dirt excellence. 7 Wins on 10 SA starts and his 2nd off the layoff after the Clark, something Baffert wins 18% of the time. Baffert and Smith are 31% together at SA. I have him setting the pace but failing short, the continuation of  a trend that's formed.  I have him fourth.

That's a hell of a way to start a handicap, but I unfolded it from the pace scenario I envision, and while not winning, I pencil Game on Dude as the key runner.  He'll provide the groovy brush work on the tom tom for others to jazz off of.  Others, hmmm.

I have Mucho Macho Man on top.  Breaking from the 2 post, a post that wins 23% of the time in races beyond 1 mile, the top winning percentage of all the posts.  A romp last time out, the Breeders Cup Classic at SA and the Goodwood, errr, the Awesome Again, also at SA.  Training well, he's my pick.

I like Will Take Charge and I have him in Place. I enjoy the way D.Wayne campaigns him and sends him out anyplace, anytime.  One of my favorite story lines in 2013 was the renaissance of Trainer Lucas.  In a sport devoid of real charismatic (pun intended) figures, having the swagger of this man back is exciting. Training very well, wouldn't be surprised if he won.  I'll be covering him in the win spot.

I like American Blend, coming late, to sneak into the top thee.  His long odds will add some value to the bet if things unfold like I hope.  His late running style encourages me even though the six year old gelded Quiet American runner has never gone the classic distance.

I think Blingo could rock the boat and break the top four.  If I'm hedging I flip flop and cover Blingo in the American Blend spot.  Blingo, in the Moss colors, is no Tiago, but he's a Grade 2 winner last time out at SA.

As I said, I'd most likely not bet this race because there is risk without alot of reward, unless of course the big three puke on themselves and someone like American Blend freaks.  I don't see it.  I built a 5 horse superfecta matrix that will cost $24 on a $1 bet.  It's a risk I'd be willing to make even though I'm not sure if the reward justifies it.  I think I'll watch the tote and hope Game on Dude gets bet heavy.

Have fun friends:  Bet responsibility, drink mostly responsibly, and enjoy the day.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade 1

 

Welcome friends to The Thorofan Handicappers Corner and this handicap of the Breeder's Cup Classic presented by The Turk, with the aid of his trusted sidekick, The Little Turk. I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan for the opportunity to share my thoughts with their readers, and I'd like to encourage horseplayers to consider joining the growing ranks of a premier fan based organization like The Thorofan.

 

Handicapping and Gambling are different sides of a coin to me.  I almost always start with a base handicap.  My base handicap is just a reordering of the horses within a range of expected finishes, what I layers.  I try not to get too emotional about the horses, but its hard as a fan and a handicapper.  That said, when I'm investing money, I try to leave emotions at the door and remain completely objective.  One way I do that is to not get caught up too much in the pre race hype that accompanies these major horse racing events.  I tend to avoid reading the slew of excellent turf writers who cover these events, especially the human interest pieces.  Perhaps that takes away some of the fan experience, but it also helps me eliminate outside biases.  My point is that my almost 30 years of handicapping has taught me that a consistent approach to handicapping is important to improving your ROI into the black. 

 

I think I digressed and I tend to do that!  I start with a base handicap and I develop an opinion as to how many legitimate horses are in a field and what the pace situation is expected to be.  With that thought I can layer speed, stalking and closers into what I believe is the right layer of finish.  I seldom enter a handicap with a particular choice on the betting menu already chosen, but for major racing events, I am held is sway by the Super High Five, that shining cup at top of the mountain that few sip from.  OK, dramatic yes, but as a handicapper and bettor, its my ultimate challenge, as elusive as a Pick 6, and a crazy adrenaline rush when you hit it, which I  have on several occasions.

If you are looking for a safe win bet, leave now, as this is not the blog for you.  That said, when I prepared my handicap I saw a layering that lends itself to The Super High Five, and that is a layering of the talent level of the horses within the field, which I think is pretty defined, especially with the scratch of Ron the Greek, an especially hard horse to layer.  You can keep up with any other scratches or changes here.

Let's stop chatting and get after this.




When you enter a handicap with a particular bet in mind, which again is not my typical approach, I take one of two tacts:  I see value and I have a wide open win spot OR I have an overwhelming favorite and I am going to back the favorite, either singling or having no more than two horses layered to win.  With Game on Dude here, I am taking the later approach, placing him as a single on my ticket, and moving on.  A couple of thoughts:  A boxed 7 horse $1 bet on the Super High Five would cost you $2,520, a six horse box is $720 and a 5 horse box is $120.  These are expensive bets.  They pay out in the thousands, and I've hit a few that have paid out $4,000 and I've come within a head bob of $75,000.  You can't cover everybody in an exotic bet.  You will have to make choices based on your read of the past performances, how the track is playing, and ultimately have some luck.  Game On Dude is 5 for 5 in 2013, 7 wins in 8 starts at Santa Anita, 8 of 11 in the money at the distance, 10 of 16 on fast dirt, training fast and Hall of Fame jock Mike Smith up for Baffert.  I'd place his odds of winning at 2 in 3 tries and that's good enough for me to make this single selection.  Would there be more value placing him Second and having an upset winner, perhaps Will Take Charge, nipping him at the wire: Absolutely and I encourage my readers to have the stomach to make those type of bold bets, as the payout will be phenomenal. 

Which leads me to my next digression: Make your own opinions.  I've been handicapping for many years, and blogging my handicaps for some time too, and I've never once said that I had an iron pipe lock of a handicap and that you would be foolish to ignore my opinions.  Wrong! I have stunk this Handicappers Corner up to high heaven over the years, but I've also had my share of success.  Just have fun and bet responsibly.  I think I digressed again.

I have a three horse layer for Place:  Will Take Charge is a horse I loved early on the Derby trail and was happy for Lukas at the Travers and the PA Derby that this horse he patiently conditioned had arrived.  Boon or Bust, I have him 2nd through 5th.  Mucho Macho Man I think is the best of this group: He's run awfully well at Santa Anita but there is absolutely nothing to make you think he wants 10 panels.  The only difference between my $96 and $84 dollar bet ideas is being a bit more behind Mucho Macho Man and only covering Place and Show.  Finally, the champ, Fort Larned, cannot just be casually ignored (like I did last year).  I'm not sure he's been challenged all year and I don't have any sort of feel for him.  I think he could finish anywhere from Place to 8th. 

My last layer is Palice Malice, Flat Out and Paynter.  Any of them are good enough to go Place-Show and you could make a strong case to flip flop Palice Malice and Mucho Macho Man and Paynter or Flat Out with Fort Larned.  Again, you have to make choices. 

Choices.  Such a dirty word sometimes.  Toss outs are a choice and historically someone from this group will gallantly charge into 4th or 5th place, 12 lengths behind the winner and screw up the bet.  I like Last Gunfighter quite a bit:  4 wins in six starts in 2013, 6 wins in 12 fast dirt moments, and nice connections with Trainer Chad Brown and Castellano up.  Moreno will have early speed.  I'm expecting a deep fade in the last 1/8 mile, and I need that fade to be at least to sixth place.  Declaration of War is clearly very classy but I'm not biting and I am completely discounting Planteur (Ire), always a kiss of death.

I know I have at least one or two more iterations of my bet structure to make before tomorrow.  Play with your own, watch today's dirt races and see where the winners at a 1/8 pole, at the 1/4.  I expect most of the winners on dirt at Santa Anita to be the early speed, with the wild card being an extra length of track to cover. 

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Wireplayers Dirty Derby Dozen Final Poll 2011

DJ, cue Waltzing Matilda. The Wire Players Derby Dozen Pool has reached their final opinions for 2011. I say farewell to Brian, Rob and Geno and Derek, so long to Carly, Brian and Jessica, see you soon to Tony Bada Bing, Ten Cent and Dylan and fair winds and following seas to the Falcon of horse racing, Steve.

The Turk loves the sport of horse racing and never tires from trying to spread the gospel of Ruffian, Hard Spun, Turkoman and Commentator. It's folks like these in the Derby Dozen Poll that bring passion and energy to our sport, and as long as we have that, we have hope. We also have the equine: Never asks to be a free agent, works hard, sacrifices, seeks glory for sportsmanship sake, sometimes gives the ultimate sacrifice in the name of our entertainment. Forget the idiot professional football players who can't keep their twitter accounts or thier other twitters in thier zippers and embrace the horse.



The Turk is planning on handicapping a fast main track for Saturday with soft turf for the ones on green. I like Archarcharch and Mucho Macho Man but the heavy capping begins tonight.

Have fun friends. Turk Out!

The Nomination is In: February 20, 2011: Santa Anita Pick Three including The San Vicente and Post Race Analysis of the Fair Grounds Pick 3

I'll admit it, a 108 Beyer Speed Figure and impressive work, coupled with Bob Baffert and M. Garcia, has me intrigued by the son of War Front, the grey/roan The Factor. This seven panel affair features six Triple Crown nominees should make for an interesting Sunday at the Great Race Place. I'm reckoning The Factor will win, but he'll be pressed by some horses that can be had a good price, namely Premier Pegasus, Sinai and Indian Winter. I'm featuring The Factor as a single in a very cheap Pick Three comprised of two maiden fillies crapshoots and the San Vincente.

Let's get it on!

Santa Anita Pick Three Races 7-8-9 First Post 6:37 ET



In The San Vincente, I'd like to bet against The Factor, and I'm sure I will for $2-$4 dollars on a horse >4-1 but the race seems to be his to lose. 5f in :58 at SA and 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:24 2/5ths over the past six weeks. Nice and steady. In case you didn't see this video, watch the explosiveness but remember it wasn't against much.



Baffert's other entry is Sinai. Most likely a stalker, He'll go blinkers off today and he's been training very sharply. Bejarano is up.

Indian Winter beat several of today's runners in an ungraded stake in mid January returning $20. he will most likely stalk as well.

If the fractions get hot City Cool will be able to put up :21 and change and I think Metropolitan Man will also apply pressure to The Factor. Will he rate or will he put the pedal down? I'm going with the latter.

In Race 7, a MSW 54K for California bred fillies, I like Tribal Mistress, Whoopsie and Maggie McGowan in that order. Closing out the P3 Race 9 is a 30,000 Maiden Claimer for fillies 3 YO and I ike Sparrow, Little Mokush, Cheeky Changa and Together Webetter in that order.

i was a bit of a hot mess in yesterday's pick 3 at Fair Grounds. In the Mineshaft I hit a boxed trifecta in an overall losing effort for the day. I pride myself on the grass but I would have never picked Expansion for the win, nor did the bettors who had him 8th of 9 in The Fair Grounds Handicap.

In the Risen Star I backed Santiva and I'm not that disappointed in the effort. I had Mucho Macho Man third, same as the betting public, but he did well in the stretch. I wasn't high on Rouge Romance and expected more from Machen.



Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: January 30, 2011: The Holy Bull Grade III at Gulfstream

That handsome fella who is enjoying his retirement is none other than the 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull. A Travers Stakes, Woodward Stakes, a Florida Derby and a Haskell is often enough to win such awards. Injured in the Donn Handicap as a 4 YO, he went on to become an influential sire to such notables as Giacomo and Macho Uno, sire of today's contestant, Mucho Macho Man.

The Turk enjoyed handicapping this race as we have a nice field size of nine and an interesting collection of runners with parity between most of them and a clear cut chalk difficult to name. Early on I decided I'd go Superfecta hunting and not worry about who will win exclusively. Let's get after it!

Gulfstream Park Race 10 The Grade III Holy Bull: Post Time 5:26 ET



As always, sit down and check the weather, scratches and changes and track condition. Skip the BS articles at DRF and on the internet and by all means ignore the morning lines: Take a mind of freshness into the handicapping process, unfettered by others opinions, there is time for that later.

The weather should be fine, with a chance of light rain mid day, and the track should be fast.

Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man will attract alot of betting dollars and should be 1-2 with the bettors. As its early in the 3 YO season, all of the runners have questions to answer, so when you scan the PPs the picture won't always be crystal clear and that is where experience and luck help. Gourmet Dinner laid an egg last time out, going to plastic in the Grade ICash Call Futurity. Before that he was 4 of 4 in the money on dirt with three wins and already $869,660 in purse money fueled by the win in the Delta Downs Jackpot Grade III.

Mucho Macho Man, son of Macho Uno and Grandson of Holy Bull, is off after a long layoff, something Trainer Kathy Ritvo didn't do well at all over past year, and she also seeks to erase the 0% Graded Stake stat she is carting around. On a four race progression of improving Beyers and off a 99 BSF effort at 1 1/8 on fast dirt at the Big A. Training very well at GP beating 120 horses over 3 workouts at 5f, all around :59 even. Only 1 win to show for 5 efforts. I think he is very strong but want to see an effort today.

Dialed In may be the best of the bunch but he's only making his second start for Trainer Zito. The son of Mineshaft has been working very strong at 4F .

I'm backing Black N Beauty as my tepid chalk. Trainer Dale Romans brings the Devil His Due sired runner in fresh off a 1 mile winning effort at GP on 7 January and I'm taking a leap of faith regarding where he is in his form compared to the others.

I built a superfecta matrix and sufficiently covered how I think the race could unfold. I expect Black N Beauty will strike the lead at some point, perhaps early, and it will come down to if the stalkers can overtake. I backed Major Gain Printing Press and Leave of Absence for minor awards and off all of them I feel like I'm discounting Printing Press at my possible peril. I can't promise I won't cover Printing Press and 3 and 4 and to keep cost similar, drop someone else along the way.

Have fun with it, Turk Out! Handheld Turk is handicapping the race as well and the results will be up for him in the post race analysis.