The Nomination Is In: The Mint Julep at Churchill Downs and Recapping Shoemaker Mile

Delahaye-Barbara D. Livingston

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in handicapping older horses running over routes of grass, and I typically formulate exact bets around them. 

 Last week I talked about the struggles I've had this year with my work, and how it was affecting my handicapping. I've taken some time over the last few weeks to really concentrate on rediscovering a balance in my work-life balance. It will never be 50-50, that's just not how I approach my profession, but I've learned I can only sustain 90-10 for so long, and for me I've been clipping along at that rate for seven months, dating back to November 2023. I realized if I didn't take steps to clear my head and take balance back (the job won't give, only takes) I would burnout and be broken. Handicapping is a part of the balance. It doesn't seem like much, but hours go into one of these blog posts. I watch video, I update my databases, I pour over paste performances and race charts. A gambler can't do this, it's too much time. A track handicapper can't do this, it takes too much time. It gives me an edge, but low volume. Regardless, the mental escape it gives me is worth every second and takes nothing away from work. 

There was a time when I was wildly high volume, banging out whole cards at a time.  I respect that, but it wasn't for me.  I like to engage on one isolated segment of the sport, in this case, Turf racing older horses, primarily routes, because it allows a few things I enjoy:  larger fields, less focus than dirt which allows greater overlay potential, and just as important, identifying underlays, and then finally, really good older horses I can spend several years following.  I still think one of the greatest problems in our sport is the premature retirement to the breeding shed, denying casual fans a chance to get excited about known quantities.   I generally leave the "state of horse racing" stuff to people much more knowledgeable than me, but that's the Turk's two cents.  

So recapping, I'm placing an effort on handicapping each weekend a turf route that interests me.  Lets get after today's focus, the grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs.  The weather should be dry and warm.  Pay attention to track conditions and scratches and changes here. 

The Mint Julep G3; 1 1/16 Mile Firm Turf; Santa Anita  

   

The Turk never looks at Morning Lines as a tool for handicapping when I'm blogging.  I only look at the morning line after the handicap is complete and I'm building my fair odds assessment.  I had the top three exactly as Daily Race Form did.  Always pay attention to the tote board to get a feel for where the action is headed as post time approaches.  Remember, handicapping and bet construction are two very different things.  I'm not interested in building an exacta with a 2-1 over a 9-2 and neither should you.  Winning battles and losing wars is where that approach will get you.  When I first starting writing my blog, I struggled with the perception that if I wasn't "right" in my handicap, I'd lose credibility.  No, nailing $3 dollar will pays is not something to aspire for.  I'd rather lose six out of 10 races to make those four wins meaningful.  It doesn't often work out like that, but you get the idea.  I don't encourage normal fans to bet beyond what they are prepared to lose. The game is stacked against you.  The morning line odds added up to 129%.  I've routinely seen them up to 135%.  That's the track take, parimutuel at work, getting bigger and bigger as the handle slips and overhead and inflation rising.  Adjusting back to fair line odds is your best chance to identify those gems.  Sadly, I don't think I did here today.

So what to do with all of this?  The best two horses in my opinion are early speed, Delahaye and Heavenly Sunday.  Chad Brown's (23% turf winner, 20% graded stakes) Delahaye is 3 for 3 at the distance, 4 of 5 Turf races has hit the exacta.  Adding a 1/16 of a mile.  $550,000 price tag at Auction, by far the class of the race.  Expect this 2-1 to be bet down, maybe even to 6-5.  In this case I want that.  I have to make a choice:  Who is the best late speed?  my identified choices are:  Excellent Question (Walsh saddles I. Ortiz-21% at CD) but isn't very classy; Fuente Ovejuna (GB) with Walsh/Dettori Up, 1 win in 9 starts at this distance; Henrietta Topham, 6 YO, modest connections but training sharp, first race back since October 2023; Immensitude (Fr) with conditioner Bill Mott, and Prat up, goes in second start of career in North America.  Remember, all of these options have fur on them, if they didn't they would be overvalued as well.

I'm going to put Immensitude/6 OVER Heavenly Sunday/8 and Excellent Question/5.  Delahaye will get added to the ticket depending on the tote board.

This is a $2 bet for either $4 or $6.  

Finally, last week's handicap (I didn't bet) was the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita.  I needed to get my handicapping chops working again. 

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 27May 2024 Santa Anita Park; 1 mile Firm Turf

The Nomination Is In: The Shoemaker Mile G1 at Santa Anita

 

Bill and Wilt

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  I'm taking the opportunity on Memorial Day to do what has been rare for me this year, write.  The Turk doesn't like to talk about work too much, but I've been very busy.  On December 31st one of facilities suffered an operational error, a spill of hazardous liquid.  It should have never happened, but it did.  Every process and procedure we had in place failed us.  When you face failure you can recoil from it or go at it head on.  It's a thought that is on my mind this Memorial Day, the idea of the bravest soldiers running towards gunfire and not away from it.  What I do isn't life or death like those brave souls who lost their lives and whom we remember today,  but it still affects me.  It's almost 5 full months since the event, things are mostly under control now, and the Turk who has worked almost every day for five months straight, is taking the opportunity today to enjoy his favorite sport, run over grass, and to forget, even if just for a little while, the real world at the door.

Another person who had to face the real world almost from the time he was born is Bill Shoemaker, whom today's Shoemaker Mile G1 is named after. Born so small, there was serious fear he would survive.  Kept warm in a shoebox, Bill used the tools that God gave him to amass 8,833 wins.  Think about that another way: Santa Anita has 11 races today.  If the Great Race Place ran everyday, for 803 days straight, he would win every race every day to equal that mark.  That just floors me.  11 Triple Crown Wins and a Breeders' Cup Classic.  Hall of Fame 1958!  Paralyzed from the neck down in a car crash, he continued his life, training horses and writing pulp fiction with Dick Francis.  I think we have seen the apex of horse racing within our cultural horizon.  It's a sport that just doesn't appeal to the youth of America, not even recent Triple Crown's could reverse the damage done.  It's too bad really, but each generation chooses what it cares about and the days of a jock like Willie Shoemaker being at the same cultural relevance as other celebrities of our day is over.  Enjoy it while it still exists.  

Let's Get After this!

The weather looks gorgeousweather looks gorgeous in Arcadia today so expect a firm turf course.  As of right now there are no scratches or changes but you can keep your eyes herehere.  

The Shoemaker Mile G1; 1 Mile on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up

I'm not going to prattle on too much about this one.  Let's look at De Jour last time out.  Also keep your eye on Easter and Goliad.  

The Kilroe Mile G1;  3 March 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf.  

Now Johannes, War At Sea, Irideo and Air Force Red (easier company in the G3)

The American G3; 4 April 2024 SA;  1 Mile on Firm Turf 

Baffert saddles De Jour, not someone I think of on turf, has Prat up and they are 25% winners in 20 tries at SA.  Baffert himself is a 10% winner on turf.  

Lots of early speed in this one.  I'm just going to be watching as I get back into the swing of my handicapping.  I've been handicapping for nearly 40 years, yet I still have to dust off and get into a rhythm, which I know I'm not currently in.

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

The Nomination Is In: The Dueling Grounds Derby $750K

     Welcome Friends to The Turk and Little Turk Blog, with a narrow focus on handicapping, primarily older turf runners, since 2008.  In those years we have written over 680 blog posts and given bet suggestions on almost all of them.  Our most recent handicap of the Pacific Classic gave a $2 Exacta Bet for $20 that returned $93.20.  Past results are not an  indication of future, but over a long period of time this blog has offered bet constructions and documented the success.  While its terribly difficult to eek out positive ROI race after race, I have proven that focusing on a small group of races and really analyzing in depth can allow me to make good race track investments. My objectives: Relaxation, small profits and sharing my insights with my small but passionate reader base. 

Kentucky Downs is one of my favorite tracks, and with the unsettled future of Arlington Race Track, is easily my favorite turf course in the United States.  Tomorrow marks the first of six days of live racing of this boutique meet and I hope to play at least one race every day.  Let's get after the Dueling Ground Derby $750K.  

Saratoga Derby  Invitational G1: 7 Aug 21; 1 3/16 Firm Turf:  Yes This Time, Palazzi, Cellist, De Jour

Dueling Grounds Derby 2018-  Posted just for reference.  10 Starters

This is a race of potential, as three year old turf horses are generally an evolution.  For that reason I typically avoid three year old turf races because of the uncertainty, but I say that and uncertainty, big fields and plenty of handle can produce the type of fun that makes me look forward to the Kentucky Downs boutique meet every year.  

The handicap above is what I call my Base Handicap.  You can see in the ML Column the Morning Line represented in decimal form.  26% above 100% is not a mistake, that is what drives the administrative costs associated with racing.  At some tracks this number has drifted above 130%.  This represents a real challenge for the horseplayer to overcome and another reason why betting tote board favorites is a bad idea.  

I actually don't have a lot of respect for the Morning Line.  I respect and know some of the people whose name is associated with these tracks for DRF, and they are just overworked.  They don't have the two hours per race I'll often dedicate to analysis.  That said, I like to show them just to get a feel for how Joe Public Bettor is going to start off looking at this race.  One that pops out to me is how undervalued Red Hornet is by the ML compared to my analysis.  The Fair Line takes the odds back to 100% and places win odds on the field.  My fair line will have many more 50-1, 2% or longer odds on the field than a morning line will because I don't have the 26% to deal with.  As you can see, I've assigned an 84% chance one of the top five horses in my base handicap will win the race.  While I don't typically place Win Bets, Modern Science (Ire) and Last Samurai have a 10% chance of winning, and with unpredictability in the trips these horses might face, would be worth a $2 win bet at odds provided the public doesn't over bet them.  This is a form of Tote Board Handicapping I encourage in these large fields without dominant top contenders, just pick some prices off the board that your Fair Odds Line tell you have value.  

What am I going to do with this?

My indecisive $1 Exacta is 3-5-8-9-12 OVER 3-4-5-8-9-11-12 for $30 could still produce a 20% return, the low end of my investment strategy threshold.  I need to be a bit more adventurous and not be so worried about losing and instead give myself an opportunity for a solid +50% ROI. 

With one removal the bet drops to $20.  I'm going to pull De Jour down.  Why the ML and Turk Line chalk?  He is starting in post 12 and his late speed hasn't been great.  I'm going to assume he gets gobbled up.  I like the value my $20 Bet represents even if its likely to lose.

I don't know what the track conditions will be like as it most likely will start raining as the day goes on.  I wouldn't change anything with my choice either way.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!