Wire Players Dirty Derby Dozen Volume 5

WTF moments happen to all of us. I would think Team Mo last weekend had a serious WTF moment watching the 2 year old champion fade badly to Show in the Wood Memorial. How could they not see it coming?

We humans are often quick to label things "the next". I've read quotes comparing Uncle Mo to Seattle Slew. Why does he need to be anything other than Uncle Mo? Forget the horse flesh, Seattle Slew's conditioner prepared that horse differently, even on a compact prep schedule. Take a gander at a nice piece of writing at The Knight Sky and then think about Mo's extended spring break: You can be the best athlete in the world but if you aren't properly trained and placed at the top of your form cycle, you won't be successful. Is any of this new? There is no doubt Uncle Mo is talented, but what possessed the Kentucky Derby winning trainer to take such a conservative route? He is sound were told, why treat him like he has Big Brown's hooves?

Anyway, I'm a handicapper, not a trainer, so I'm not going to ramble on any further on this. I'm not sure what Mr. Pletcher will do to sharpen the colt. Regardless, this internet hack has contributed his darts at the dartboard, or I should say, my studied and considered choices for the top 12 Kentucky Derby contenders for this edition of the Wire Players Derby Dozen.

I remember vividly that the late Michael Hutchence of INXS didn't like to be photographed in promotional events without his bandmates because it was about the band and not the individual. While the Ol' Turk is neither as handsome or talented as Michael, he always respected that feeling and I partially regret posting my own pathetic Derby Dozen choices up separate from my esteemed group, but I think it illustrates how varied our opinions currently are. I freely admit how apathetic I feel towards this years Triple Crown trail. I loved Premier Pegasus, and I dig The Factor, and Santiva interests me, and when I saw Uncle Mo at the Breeders' Cup I thought I'd be putting another Triple Crown winner picture up on the wall, but who knows.

Anyhow, here you go!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 12, 2011: The GP Pick Three, Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe

Just like I drew it up! Well, yes and no. The Turk and Turk Clan turned yesterday into a fun day of racing, with a rare break from Little Turk's soccer, we were able to build a fire and settle in for the return of Uncle Mo running as close to a televised workout as you can get. We had family over for dinner that ended just in time for the San Felipe and when it was over, The Turk had gained over $1,100 dollars in winnings with some pretty low risk wagers.

My target was a Pick Three built around a single for Mo, but sometimes things just unfold, not like you drew them up but the randomness can produce interesting, sometimes better, results. The Turk unapologetically believes in his betting principles, even when he is going through difficult weeks, as consistency I find is always the best way out of the dark valley. My handicapping allowed me to identify some value and my betting discipline allowed me to keep risks low and rewards darn good.

Let's go!



I thought the Timely Writer was a lousy bet and I wasted no money on it. That's a skill I didn't possess 15 years ago. I thought Rattlesnake Bridge was second best and he was second best alright. Uncle Mo was moving nice through the last 1/4 mile but I still don't know what the point of this race was and why he wasn't racing a month ago, but hey, what do I know!

The Pick Three fell apart with Joes Blazing Arson who I had dead last and the bettors had 6 out of 9. A simple superfecta matrix with the top two in spots Win and Place and the next three bet Place through Fourth kept the bet to $48 dollars but it didn't matter this race.

In the Gulfstream Handicap the exact same superfecta bet came in for $773.80. I discounted Rule a bit and the rest of them just sorta fell into place for me. That's three races now for Rule and the smart trainer should rethink his conditions book strategy. I liked Jackson Bend and will pay attention to his next race back, and Soaring Empire and Tackelberry continue to make a fan of me. Typical Duke of Mischief, close, on the ticket, no winner.

The best handicapping of the day was my identification of Watch Me Go, who I had as an A- and expected a Place or Show result. My eyes got big looking at the tote board and the $10 win bet at 43-1 paid very nice. Did you see the exacta payout of $194, Tri at $7,900 and Super at $19,000? Wow. Never in a million years would I have inserted Crimson Knight.

My second best handicapping and betting move was backing Premier Pegasus on the win bet. As the bettors 4th choice and 7-1 I thought it was a no brainer. Jaycito impressed me and i didn't think too much of Bench Points, my mistake.

It was a fun afternoon of horse racing and winning a few bets made me feel confident again. I'm looking forward to the Rebel next week. Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination is In: February 20, 2011: Santa Anita Pick Three including The San Vicente and Post Race Analysis of the Fair Grounds Pick 3

I'll admit it, a 108 Beyer Speed Figure and impressive work, coupled with Bob Baffert and M. Garcia, has me intrigued by the son of War Front, the grey/roan The Factor. This seven panel affair features six Triple Crown nominees should make for an interesting Sunday at the Great Race Place. I'm reckoning The Factor will win, but he'll be pressed by some horses that can be had a good price, namely Premier Pegasus, Sinai and Indian Winter. I'm featuring The Factor as a single in a very cheap Pick Three comprised of two maiden fillies crapshoots and the San Vincente.

Let's get it on!

Santa Anita Pick Three Races 7-8-9 First Post 6:37 ET



In The San Vincente, I'd like to bet against The Factor, and I'm sure I will for $2-$4 dollars on a horse >4-1 but the race seems to be his to lose. 5f in :58 at SA and 6f in 1:12 and 7f in 1:24 2/5ths over the past six weeks. Nice and steady. In case you didn't see this video, watch the explosiveness but remember it wasn't against much.



Baffert's other entry is Sinai. Most likely a stalker, He'll go blinkers off today and he's been training very sharply. Bejarano is up.

Indian Winter beat several of today's runners in an ungraded stake in mid January returning $20. he will most likely stalk as well.

If the fractions get hot City Cool will be able to put up :21 and change and I think Metropolitan Man will also apply pressure to The Factor. Will he rate or will he put the pedal down? I'm going with the latter.

In Race 7, a MSW 54K for California bred fillies, I like Tribal Mistress, Whoopsie and Maggie McGowan in that order. Closing out the P3 Race 9 is a 30,000 Maiden Claimer for fillies 3 YO and I ike Sparrow, Little Mokush, Cheeky Changa and Together Webetter in that order.

i was a bit of a hot mess in yesterday's pick 3 at Fair Grounds. In the Mineshaft I hit a boxed trifecta in an overall losing effort for the day. I pride myself on the grass but I would have never picked Expansion for the win, nor did the bettors who had him 8th of 9 in The Fair Grounds Handicap.

In the Risen Star I backed Santiva and I'm not that disappointed in the effort. I had Mucho Macho Man third, same as the betting public, but he did well in the stretch. I wasn't high on Rouge Romance and expected more from Machen.



Have fun, Turk out!