Leftovers: A Slice of Cold Turk-ey

The business end of the Turkey, where all my best handicaps come from.

The Turk has a real problem: I love the Derby Trail, but I really hate betting these prep races because I'm just not that good at it. Instead of losing hard fought positive ROI on these equine rookies I'm going to blog-recap the best of the previous weekends races and let my trip handicapping eye influence my opinion for awhile.

Speaking of cramping my style, I've been so fixated on my actual gambling I forget to blog much in January. I just can't help myself, no matter how disciplined I think I am on occasion I flip the script on life and let it all go. I was a machine the last two weekends on the 4 YOs and Up and Turf races, and was quite content to ignore the youngsters. The calendar is about to change to February and the first 2012 Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll is about to be released so I better get my act in gear.

If you like great insight and snarky comments, check out the Derby Dozen folks every few weeks from now until the First Saturday in May.

I don't give much of a hoot about 2 YO racing, so the Holy Bull, The Count Fleet and the Sham were my first impressions so far.

Holy Bull



The Count Fleet



The Sham Stakes



I liked what I saw from all three winners but the trail's just starting...

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 30, 2011: The Holy Bull Grade III at Gulfstream

That handsome fella who is enjoying his retirement is none other than the 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull. A Travers Stakes, Woodward Stakes, a Florida Derby and a Haskell is often enough to win such awards. Injured in the Donn Handicap as a 4 YO, he went on to become an influential sire to such notables as Giacomo and Macho Uno, sire of today's contestant, Mucho Macho Man.

The Turk enjoyed handicapping this race as we have a nice field size of nine and an interesting collection of runners with parity between most of them and a clear cut chalk difficult to name. Early on I decided I'd go Superfecta hunting and not worry about who will win exclusively. Let's get after it!

Gulfstream Park Race 10 The Grade III Holy Bull: Post Time 5:26 ET



As always, sit down and check the weather, scratches and changes and track condition. Skip the BS articles at DRF and on the internet and by all means ignore the morning lines: Take a mind of freshness into the handicapping process, unfettered by others opinions, there is time for that later.

The weather should be fine, with a chance of light rain mid day, and the track should be fast.

Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man will attract alot of betting dollars and should be 1-2 with the bettors. As its early in the 3 YO season, all of the runners have questions to answer, so when you scan the PPs the picture won't always be crystal clear and that is where experience and luck help. Gourmet Dinner laid an egg last time out, going to plastic in the Grade ICash Call Futurity. Before that he was 4 of 4 in the money on dirt with three wins and already $869,660 in purse money fueled by the win in the Delta Downs Jackpot Grade III.

Mucho Macho Man, son of Macho Uno and Grandson of Holy Bull, is off after a long layoff, something Trainer Kathy Ritvo didn't do well at all over past year, and she also seeks to erase the 0% Graded Stake stat she is carting around. On a four race progression of improving Beyers and off a 99 BSF effort at 1 1/8 on fast dirt at the Big A. Training very well at GP beating 120 horses over 3 workouts at 5f, all around :59 even. Only 1 win to show for 5 efforts. I think he is very strong but want to see an effort today.

Dialed In may be the best of the bunch but he's only making his second start for Trainer Zito. The son of Mineshaft has been working very strong at 4F .

I'm backing Black N Beauty as my tepid chalk. Trainer Dale Romans brings the Devil His Due sired runner in fresh off a 1 mile winning effort at GP on 7 January and I'm taking a leap of faith regarding where he is in his form compared to the others.

I built a superfecta matrix and sufficiently covered how I think the race could unfold. I expect Black N Beauty will strike the lead at some point, perhaps early, and it will come down to if the stalkers can overtake. I backed Major Gain Printing Press and Leave of Absence for minor awards and off all of them I feel like I'm discounting Printing Press at my possible peril. I can't promise I won't cover Printing Press and 3 and 4 and to keep cost similar, drop someone else along the way.

Have fun with it, Turk Out! Handheld Turk is handicapping the race as well and the results will be up for him in the post race analysis.

The Nomination Is In: January 23, 2010 Gulfstream Park; The Holy Bull Grade III and the Late Pick Three

Mighty Holy Bull loans his legendary name and memory to today's featured race, the Grade III 1 Mile Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Holy Bull is now remembered for his ability as a sire, but the Turk likes to remember him as a horse who was a failure on the his quest to win the Kentucky Derby as a favorite, but had connections who had enough foresight to rethink their horse's 3 YO campaign and turn him into a force to be feared. A terrible breakdown in the 1995 Donn Handicap luckily did not end his life and we remember his legacy. A certain horse named Barbaro started his 3 Yo campaign here. The fantastic print shown above can be found at Riverwind Gallery. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park; The Holy Bull Stakes Grade III; 1 Mile on Fast Dirt for 3 YOs.



Aikenite is a Pletcher trainee with J. Velazquez up. A son of a top sprinter sire, Yes It's True, his ability to stretch out is yet to be determined but we like the possibilities. This is his fourth crack at a graded stakes win and his first race since early November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Training nicely including a :59 4/5ths bullet with 19 runners at 5f this week.

Jackson Bend goes for Trainer Zito for the first time today, and he has five wins on fast dirt already. Zito has only a 5% win rate in Graded Stakes over rolling year and hopefully he'll improve on that with a horse that breaks from the far outside and has good quality. Jock J. Rose replaces J. Sanchez in the irons. Training very sharply since late December.

So The Turk thinks this is a two horse race for the win but there is a nice level of quality in this race and someone who finishes out of the money will still be a very good horse. I see a stratification layer just below the top two that includes Homeboykris, William's Kitten and Winslow Homer.

R. Dutrow's runner Homeboykris has something to prove after a dreadful Remsen in late November but is the 1 mile Grade I Champagne winner from a six horse field. Prado is still top shelf and is up. A. Dutrow's Winslow Homer is from Unbridled's Song and has two straight wins in lesser quality company, including a big loose on the lead effort in the slop. William's Kitten is a Maker trainee with Eclipse Award winning Leparoux up and has been burning the barn down in works the last two weeks.

Pace will bring Piscitelli possibly into Show or 4th and Thank U Philippe can't be discounted too low either. Whoever wins this race will be a quality horse and a few of the losers will fly under the wire and still be horses to watch. Good stuff in an era of small fields and questionable quality.

I thought we'd take a run at the Pick Three as well that starts in Race 7, a 7 furlong dirt affair, MSW 45K. #7 Liquidity Event was scratched by Trainer Zito this morning. I'm going to back 3 horses, Mine N Gems/4, Six Chicks/5 and Bushwhacked/6. If I was singling I'd take Bushwhacked, a Sheppard Trainee for Augustin Stables with Leparoux up. What a team that is.

Race 8 is a 1 1/16 firm turf ALW N1X for F&M. Again I have three horses at the time of writing I'm backing, Take a Vow/3, Miss Olivia Rae/7 and Musical Romance/9. Take a Vow would be my single, A Janney bred and owned runner for Trainer McGaughey comes in off a 7f turf maiden win.

The Turk is right now looking at a 3 X 3 X 2 pick three bet for $18 dollars. The fields are big enough with no heavy duty chalk to justify the slightly bloated bet of mine.

As always, check the weather and the scratches and tote board board before you jump into the fray.

Have Fun, Turk Out!