The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

The Turk would like to thank the fine folks at The Thorfan and the Handicappers Corner for the privilege of throwing darts against the wall, errr, handicapping this weekend's Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.

The Turk loves the handicap division because the richness of information over several seasons that unfolds on the past performances stirs the mathematical intrigue in me. Horse racing for me is a two for one value; I get jazzed by the handicapping and the gambling, especially when I win, but I'm also able to put aside the money side of things and just be a super fan. Like everyone, I dream of the next Triple Crown winner, and I honor the eleven previous winners, but it's the older runners on the dirt and the turf that really do it for me. Last year was a bit lean on returning heroes and it's time that the cupboard gets restocked with superstars older than 3 years old.

There are some great minds on this internet-thingy handicapping: The Handicappers Corner, The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers are great places to go and bounce your own thoughts off of people who are right pretty often. I believe strongly in building handicaps without outside influence, so I really hope you have already built your handicap and you are just using this to gage your own thinking.

I was musing the other night that my own racing year mirrors the handicapping division: I shutdown after the Clark Handicap, I go to the farm (OK Chipolte's and the corner bar) and just chill until early January, I show back up in Florida and start running again, getting my stride up before taking another break in May, only to pick it up around Saratoga/Haskell time and making the strong run back to the Breeders' Cup. Turk buddy, what the heck are you talking about? I'm sayin' that I'm rusty in the handicapping and I've been resting my red pen since the Clark, just like some of these runners have been resting since that same race. If I graphed my ROI, which I do, I'm at my absolute best at the end of the season when the horses are a pretty known quantity and my handicapped skill is at its proverbial "3rd race after a layoff" best. I ain't there yet but let's take a swing at this race anyway.

Gulfstream Park Race 10: The Donn Handicap



One problem with being an internet hack handicapper is exposing your thoughts before you have enough information. Without blogging I'd have my base handicap for the Donn done on Friday night but my bet strategy would be formed once the track conditions and scratches and changes
firmed up. I also like to stare at the tote board for as long as possible to make sure my superfecta investment makes sense. Perhaps the worst feeling I know is "investing" $50 to make $30. The weather at Gulfstream this weekend looks like it has the possibility to continue to be inclement, and I've built my base handicap with a slant towards slop.

So where am I coming from? Flat Out has four progressively decreasing Beyer races in a row. He looked like a horse that needed a break after the Clark Handicap, but many Breeders' Cup combatants put in dull efforts in thier first races back. Trainer Dickey got a turf effort in for God only knows what reason except possibly to increase sire value, or he just couldn't find a better spot in the conditions book. I dunno, seems like an Allowance race over dirt and 1 1/16 would have been better but the point is he got work in and this is his second effort off a 45-180 day layoff. Surely Turk that's a winning angle? 0% for Dickey but only his 5th try. Jock Solis is just a 6% winner at Gulfstream. On the positive side, I liked his slop effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is a bit sharper race wise than some of his cohorts, at some point I have to believe he reverses course and returns to form. This weekend would be a good time!

Dick Dutrow, not my favorite trainer but a solid horseman nonetheless, brings in Trickmeister, 5 wins in 5 starts lifetime at age 5 after beating up on shoulda, coulda, woulda types like Our Dark Knight. Ramon Dominguez and Trainer Dutrow combine for 32% wins and the son of Proud Citizen has been sharpening up over the Gulfstream Park track since New Years Eve. I want to be careful he's not too high on the toteboard but I will cover him in all four spots in my Superfecta.

The presumptive bettor's chalk will be Shackleford. I love the horse but there are red flags; winless since The Preakness, before that an N1X. A loser to Coil at the Haskell by a neck and trounced at the Travers, a loser to Wilburn at the Indiana Derby, only to choke to Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile. I am tickled pink to see him back and excited for Dale Romans and his barn, but I am concerned. He's a tepid B for me, Top Four on expectations and class.

Ruler on Ice, the Belmont winning gelded four year old son of Roman Ruler, is back for popular trainer, Kelley Breen who places Rosie Napravnik up. Also resting since The Clark, some very impressive bullets at 4 and 5 furlongs and a very solid resume on slop may make me reconsider and move him further up the handicap.

Soaring Empire and Redeemed will round out my top six Superfecta candidates. Soaring Empire is more of a one turn specialist and he enters off a disappointing 6th in the Hal's Hope after winning in 2011. I like the 5 YO an awful lot and I am very interested in seeing how he goes over the slop. He does own the best Tomlinson (453) over the muck. Redeemed is Dick Dutrow's other runner who is taking a jump up in class but is worth a look. The one that could make me look stooooopid is Hymn Book, but then again, a son of Arch, ridden by Johnny V for Shug McGaughey is just screaming to not be ignored. You can't cover everyone and you'll go broke tryin; build your handicap and bets with an eye towards the bottom line.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta that approximates my base handicap. If I don't like what I see on the tote board or if more than just Al Khali scratches (I'm going to guess he does)I may retrench to a Trifecta just to keep my action reasonable and in line with where I feel my handicappers touch is right now, which is, well, "1st effort off a 60-180 day layoff".

Also, sorry for the gratuitous $6,000 dollar pile of winnings on my desk. I'm stroking my bad motherf**ker handicapper mojo back up, just like a trainer takes a horse out for a nice blow before a big race. It's my "It's Britney, Bitch" moment.

Great talking to you friends. Enjoy the races, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 30, 2011; The Met Mile Grade I at Belmont Park

The Turk is honored this week to be writing this handicap for The ThoroFan, a thoroughbred racing association that gives fans a voice.

The Metropolitan Handicap, better known as the Met Mile, is one of the Ol' Turks favorite races each year. When you live in snow country as I do, Memorial Day is the traditional start of warm weather that will end, well, right about Woodward Stakes Day. Non horse people may have said Labor Day, but passionate folks, people who gravitate to organizations like ThoroFan most likely think all year of the next big stakes day. If you are reading this I'm sure you understand what I'm saying.

This edition of the race, with the mid week news that expected chalk Morning Line was scratched by trainer Zito with a foot issue, is pretty wide open. The eleven runners have a combined one grade one stakes win, that by the handsome five year old son of Speightstown, Haynesfield, who has five Belmont Park wins as well, only one less than the rest of the field combined. We still seek someone to step forward and take the mantle as best older horse in training in America.

It's an oddity to me that races contested at one mile are not the most competitive in the United States, and you only need to look at this year's Kentucky Derby to understand how few horses are true classic distance runners in training right now. 8 furlongs with speed is what we seem to have bred. Imagine the gag fest in a few short weeks when the classic distance challenged amongst us add another 1/4 mile to the effort. Some failed runners over the past few years would have been so much better off just running the mile distance. I still think last years winner of the Met Mile, Quality Road was miscast and should have been a Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile contestant. He should still be in training too but I digress.

This is also the first Breeders' Cup "Win and Your In" race of the year, and the winner receives entry fees and $10,000 in travel expenses, as well as possibly a rub down and peppermints, but let's keep that on the down low, what happens in the stalls at Churchill Downs really should stay at Churchill Downs.

Let's get after it!

Belmont Park Race 10: The Met Mile



The spreadsheet shouldn't necessarily be viewed as the predicted order of finish: I slot the horses into ranges from the win spot to out of the money, and then I take post position, expected pace factors, track surface conditions and build my bet. My preferred betting plan these days is a Pick Three or Pick Four multi race bet, with superfecta and trifecta betting within the races. I like to handicap the races at least the night before and use the time leading up to the windows going closed to adjust my bet based on scratches and changes, trusted paddock reports but most importantly how the track is playing.

It's important to understand the track configuration as well; Belmont Park has big sweeping curves, and outside runners can bring speed into those sweeping corners and explode onto the stretch. Typically Belmont at this distance favors stalkers, but that's a generality and you should look for races the day before and on the undercard at the same distance and see what happens with the speed.

After building my handicap I made a decision to give Haynsefield my tepid chalk as I expect him to bounce back from a dull effort in the Grade III Winchester at Belmont on 30 April.



Haynesfield is six of seven in the money at Belmont. Two races back in the Cigar Mile he posted a career high 111 Beyer in a game second to Jersey Town. This is his second effort off a long layoff. There is no heavy chalk, and with morning line of 7-2, I think it's realistic he'll slip to 4-1 and I'll take stand with him at that price.

After Haynesfield, I see a group of four horses capable of winning and most likely three of the four will be in the money.

Aikenite is a horse I never thought much of as a three year old. A year can make a big difference and I was impressed by his effort in the Grade II Churchill Downs. He's quietly strung three 100+ Beyers together for Trainer Pletcher and this is his third effort in his form cycle and its not inconceivable to run another big race. Currently at 9-2, I see him slipping to 7-2 in my fair odds table.

Caxia Eletronica starts for the 42 time, a staggering number by today's stake race standards. He's a hard knocker, winning 13 times, 27 of 41 in the money, 22 of 34 in the money on fast dirt and 7 of 13 in the money at the distance. Yup, hard knocker. he had a perfect trip in the Winchester and the Repole Stable runner is a four legged Roy Hobbs. A sharp :59 1/5th at 5f a week ago signals continued good health and form.

Tizway ran a solid show in this race last year. He looked wonderful winning the 1 mile Kelso at Belmont last October, and while he hasn't won in 2011, he's been placed in some tough races and ran against some solid competition. He's game and he'll finish well.

I really like the four year old Empire Maker son, Soaring Empire. Training very sharply, the fresh runner hasn't gone to the gate since March. He'll be flying at the end.

After these five there are a few dangerous runners. You can't cover everybody and one thing I've learned as a bettor is to build the handicap and bet the handicap. OK Turk, what do you mean? I handicap the race and then when I go to bet I don't toss in one more runner just to be safe. The next three my handicap are all good enough to win, but I've shaded them down. Only four horses will fill out the superfecta, someone will be on the outside looking in. It's not personal, some of the uncovered I may like, but you have to have conviction and then you got to let it ride.

Tackleberry concerns me: On lasix for the first time, trainer Olivares has been quoted as saying he's breezed with lasix and looked good on it. I expect him to bring the early heavy speed and I'm banking on him faltering out of the top four but all it takes is a neck into a blanket finish to foul the works. A Grade II winner, what the gelding gives up in class he makes up in guts. I like Tackelberry but I'm not covering him here. This is gambling after all.

Ibboyee is a force in state restricted affairs and he's in deeper waters here. I'd like him more if he had at least one win at Belmont or one win at the distance or if his last win wasn't at Finger Lakes.

Kensei has been sharpening nicely for Trainer Assmussen but he has not run well at Belmont with the exception of the Grade II Dwyer in 2009.

I've tossed from consideration Stormy's Majesty, Yawanna Twist and Rodman. All of them have the potential to find the top four spots but you'll drive yourself nuts if you don't take a stand and eliminate from contention some entrants.

The Superfecta bet isn't something you are going to hit every time and if you can't consistently pick winners and identify a group of six horses that the top four are a part of, take a step back and look at the exacta and trifecta. Losing money isn't fun and I only place these bets because I have a multi year history I can draw on that tells me I can do a bit better than break even and occasionally when I get some longer prices into the top four I can hit a signer. It's not a bet to chase with heavy chalk and smallish fields. The 10 cent variety will give newcomers to the bet and casual bettors a chance to be competitive without risking the mortgage money. Bet responsibly.

Have fun with this friends and remember true spirit of Memorial Day. I appreciate the opportunity to handicap for the ThoroFan and I thank the wonderful Sarah K. Andrew for use of the fantastic picture of Haynesfield.

Have fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday March 12, 2011: The GP Pick Three, Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe

Just like I drew it up! Well, yes and no. The Turk and Turk Clan turned yesterday into a fun day of racing, with a rare break from Little Turk's soccer, we were able to build a fire and settle in for the return of Uncle Mo running as close to a televised workout as you can get. We had family over for dinner that ended just in time for the San Felipe and when it was over, The Turk had gained over $1,100 dollars in winnings with some pretty low risk wagers.

My target was a Pick Three built around a single for Mo, but sometimes things just unfold, not like you drew them up but the randomness can produce interesting, sometimes better, results. The Turk unapologetically believes in his betting principles, even when he is going through difficult weeks, as consistency I find is always the best way out of the dark valley. My handicapping allowed me to identify some value and my betting discipline allowed me to keep risks low and rewards darn good.

Let's go!



I thought the Timely Writer was a lousy bet and I wasted no money on it. That's a skill I didn't possess 15 years ago. I thought Rattlesnake Bridge was second best and he was second best alright. Uncle Mo was moving nice through the last 1/4 mile but I still don't know what the point of this race was and why he wasn't racing a month ago, but hey, what do I know!

The Pick Three fell apart with Joes Blazing Arson who I had dead last and the bettors had 6 out of 9. A simple superfecta matrix with the top two in spots Win and Place and the next three bet Place through Fourth kept the bet to $48 dollars but it didn't matter this race.

In the Gulfstream Handicap the exact same superfecta bet came in for $773.80. I discounted Rule a bit and the rest of them just sorta fell into place for me. That's three races now for Rule and the smart trainer should rethink his conditions book strategy. I liked Jackson Bend and will pay attention to his next race back, and Soaring Empire and Tackelberry continue to make a fan of me. Typical Duke of Mischief, close, on the ticket, no winner.

The best handicapping of the day was my identification of Watch Me Go, who I had as an A- and expected a Place or Show result. My eyes got big looking at the tote board and the $10 win bet at 43-1 paid very nice. Did you see the exacta payout of $194, Tri at $7,900 and Super at $19,000? Wow. Never in a million years would I have inserted Crimson Knight.

My second best handicapping and betting move was backing Premier Pegasus on the win bet. As the bettors 4th choice and 7-1 I thought it was a no brainer. Jaycito impressed me and i didn't think too much of Bench Points, my mistake.

It was a fun afternoon of horse racing and winning a few bets made me feel confident again. I'm looking forward to the Rebel next week. Have fun, Turk out!

The Nomination Is In: March 12, 2011; The Gulfstream Park Late Pick Three and the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe

Spectacular, Spectacular! The Turk is settling in with a roaring fire, a red gel pen and the form and have the cards at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita sized up for what should be a truly exciting day in horse racing, albeit one that may ultimately end up pretty chalky for bettors, but exhilarating for fans of the sport nonetheless.

Uncle Mo makes his long awaited return since his commanding victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The undefeated two time Grade I winner has won three times by a combined 23 1/4 lengths but is placed in a soft spot in The Timely Writer. Far be it for Turk the handicapper to question Trainer Pletcher but horse racing fan The Turk hates the idea of two preps and a Kentucky Derby run. I hate it! This race isn't much more than a hand ride morning work and while I love the horse, I wouldn't be sad to see someone shock him, but I cant see it happening.

At Tampa Bay Downs, Brethren looks very strong but there are a few untested and interesting runners and connections (always love to see a Nafzger/Tafel combination)who will try and shake this apple cart.

Finally around 7:07 Eastern Time, The San Felipe goes off over fast dirt at Santa Anita (doesn't that still sound great? I almost have the fake dirt taste out of my mouth)and Runflatout looks like a monster in the making but also has a handful of very serious contenders who are trying to make their hooves heard.

That handsome fella above is Soaring Empire, my chalk in the Gulfstream Park Handicap. The picture came from a very nice Flicker feed and I thank them for the unauthorized not for profit use.

I hope you're as excited as I am, let's get it on!



Race 8, The Timely Writer was hand picked by Pletcher who has been sharpening the son of Indian Charlie patiently and regularly. Uncle Mo seems like he's just throwing his hockey stick over the boards and expecting a win but give some consideration to two of the challengers, Rattlesnake Bridge and Rocking Out. Rattlesnake Bridge, if he can rate within a few lengths, can close fast, and the son of Tapit has connections in McLaughlin/Lezcano with experience while the horse makes only his second start. Rocking Out represents Dick Dutrow's attempt to be a spoiler.

In the Grade III Palm Beach over the grass, I'm expecting Pluck to scratch but I left him in until that's official. Pluck is with Graham Motion's barn now since leaving Pletcher and will most likely reemerge at Tampa Bay Downs today.

Without Pluck, I like the promise of Queen'splatekitten. With a name like that, the Canadian bred Kitten's Joy colt will have serious expectations when he returns north to Woodbine. Loved the late kick last time out. The pick.

Master Dunker is a bit more seasoned than Queen'splatekitten and Trainer Fawkes comes in off of two solid races at GP. Fawkes clips along at 33% in graded stakes and clearly finds good spots in the conditions book.

Ari C is a bit of stretch but not unreasonable. The stable mate of Queen'splatekitten looks like the best of the bunch.

At 5:20 Eastern or five minutes before the final leg of the Gulfstream Park late pick three the Tampa Bay Derby goes off. With no Uncle Mo, Brethren is the looming monster both on the track and at the betting window. The son of Distorted Humor comes in off a 4 length win as the chalk. Expect to see more speed from him as he'll have to string some sub :23 3/5 times together to draw clear of this bunch.

Free Entry is trained by Chad Brown who combines with Alan Garcia to win 30% of their races. The horse has shown a strong late kick and expect to see him sitting just off the pace to apply the pressure to Brethren.

Watch Me Go will bring early speed and if he has much left at the end i see him holding on for a placing on the exotics I'm building.

The horse I am interested in seeing run is Beamer. The son of Vindication out of an Unbridled mare, Untarnished. I love seeing the two old lions in winter, Jim Tafel and Carl Nafzger campaigning together, something that makes horse racing so special.

And in Race 10, the Gulfstream Park Handicap, four or possibly five of the field of eight have honest to goodness legitimate win potential and that is something that should get bettors salivating. As I said previously, I'm backing Soaring Empire but will be watching the tote board and looking for some value in a defensive win bet and exacta. I like the son of Empire Maker's last two GP outings, and I like how he settled and rallied behind Tackleberry last time out.

Oh how tight this one appears to me. Hard to deny just how well Takleberry has run at GP this meet and the pride of Luis Olivares's barn will be strong and hard to beat again today.

The Duke of Mischief is ALWAYS in a position to win but hasn't won in his last four races. Only millionaire in the field, Fawkes puts Joe Bravo up after the injury to regular rider Coa.

Rule makes his third start after a very long layoff. He ran well for Trainer Pletcher and team WinStar in the Hal's Hope and faltered when it counted in the Donn. The horse has great numbers: 8 of 8 in the money on fast dirt, 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and 3 of 3 in the money at GP but no wins.

And finally at Santa Anita at about 7:07 Eastern, or about an hour after the Turk has his daily vitamin intake of one rare piece of aged beef, The San Felipe goes off with a field of big names and it is shaping up to be a wide open affair. Runflatout is one victory removed from being a maiden, but what promise and potential. Trainer Sadler and jock Rosario combine for a 28% win rate over 99 races at SA. Training very sharply, I particularly liked the 1:24 2/5ths 7f work and the 1:10 2/5ths 6f work in past two weeks.

Awesome Patriot returns after looking so good over the slop late last year here. Training well for Baffert, Bejarano is up. Baffert's other entry is new to the barn, Jaycito, with Garcia up. I'm taking a watch and see approach.

Premier Pegasus goes for Kwon Cho Myung. As Little Turk is Korean, we are partial to him. A 96 BSF in the San Vincente, he loses the blinkers and comes in off a strong :57 3/5ths work this week.

Watch for Albergetti to burn it up out of the gate. Comma to the Top needs to show something on dirt today. I like Quail Hill, especially at the price he'll be fetching.

Betting to me is a secondary issue today, I'm going to enjoy the bets I make of course, but today is about being a fan. A day after those idiots in the National Football League couldn't figure out a way to split up the money they fleece from suckers like me, I'm reminded that my favorite equine stars never go on strike, never holdout, are never locked out, and would literally work for sugar cubes and peppermints. The Life at Ten fiasco illustrates how humans do their best to screw up a sport that the masses just don't seem to appreciate anymore, but that's their loss and not ours friends.


Last but not least, we remember Uncle Domenico Schepis, Mama Turk's uncle who passed away in the small Sicilian village of Condro`. I am the superstitious type and the man we use to call 'Memo, or Uncle 'Memo, sure is close to Uncle Mo. That's good enough for me. Rest in Peace Uncle 'Memo.

The Nomination Is In: January 15, 2011: The Sham and San Fernando at Santa Anita Park

The Turk is back in snow filled Buffalo after a long work week in California.

I've not felt very sharp with my handicapping since shutting myself down for a break after the Breeders' Cup. Any horseplayer knows what I'm talking about: You have stretches of time when you feel unbeatable and then others where you can't seem to find clarity when starring at the PP's. I've been handicapping long enough to know the best way to start to get your groove on is to just keep handicapping, analyzing the race charts afterwards, and focus in on something you're good at in order to build confidence.

I don't preach one thing here and do something completely different. I've been increasing the number of handicaps I work on each week, decreasing my actual betting, and gaining confidence as I count my virtual winnings and ROI.

I also find it helpful that I can ignore playing synthetic tracks if I want to. That wasn't an anti plastic rant as I was growing indifferent to the surface, but it is very nice to be handicapping this wickedly fast Santa Anita Dirt Track and not think about if I need to apply my turf racing angles when on plastic, or even worse, having to think about what version of plastic the track happens to have. Tedious, and I feel free of that.

The Turk is again involved this year with a project by Steve over at Wireplayers.com to identify the best three years old on their march to the Kentucky Derby. The panel of voters is impressive and deep and I'm humbled to be counted among them. We had ALOT of fun with this last year and we will be back this coming Wednesday, and will be out with a new polling every three weeks after that until the day of the Derby post draw. I hope you tune in and have some fun with us.

The Turk's Blog is subtitled "Horses, Handicapping and Hijinks". I'm going to add in 2011 a monthly Hijinks post where I will give advice and tips on gifts and gear for horseplayers and men of certain age with discriminating taste as well as travel stories and fun times at the track. As much as I enjoy the horses, the conversations I've had with strangers at the track are some of my favorite moments.

Anyway, that's about how deep my new year resolutions go towards my horse racing passion, more of the same would sum it up! Let's get after two graded stakes at Santa Anita today.


Santa Anita Race 3 and Race 8



The long travel week left me just wanting to do some handicapping and inner-race betting. These two races seemed like interesting targets. In the Grade 3 Sham Stakes a five horse field will go 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Tapizar makes his forth start for Steve Asmussen who puts Gomez up today. First start for the son of Tapit, and coming off a layoff since Thanksgiving Day. The colt has been training nicely at Santa Anita with a 6f in 1:12 2/5ths and 4f in :47 1/5 and I will expect him to be a heavy chalk but I'm looking at Clubhouse Ride to give him a tussle. Making his 11th start already, he comes in with three straight show efforts and a blazing 4f in :45 3/5ths this week. 7 of 10 in the money and a 422 Tomlinson at the distance, Valenzeula is up for Trainer Craig Lewis, owner of 9 Grade Stakes starts and no wins. Baffert's wildcard Uncle Sam makes just his second start and I need to see a bit more today before getting to caught up, but Bejarano is up and he has one win on this dirt track already.

In the Grade 2 San Fernando, a scratch by Sidney's Candy while he gets healthy leaves a wide open race. I'm looking at the speed of Tweebster to be a serious challenge for the others. Indian Firewater will run with him, but the colt has 6 places in 13 starts and seems content being close but not winning. A switch to Mike Smith today may prompt a better finish but previous jocks were no slouches either. Thisskyhasnolimits has been very consistent for the past 4 races and will fire off a good effort and I expect he'll find the ticket. Hamish Hy is an interesting entrant, with no dirt or distance efforts but a Grade I turf horse can't be ignored. Trainer Art Sherman has won 3 of 6 turf/dirt switches.

I haven't had time to blog out my post race analysis from last week, but below is the Pick three from Gulfstream and missed by 1 1/4 length when Detirminato edged out Leave of Absence. I was happy to identify the winners of both other races. An OK effort I reckon, but you either win money or you lose money, no moral victories. The pick three paid $320 on a $1 dollar bet, fueled by Detirminato's win, but in the easy mark category, I had The Hal's Hope pegged with what seemed to me a very simple superfecta win. I boxed but still walked away with nearly $135 bucks, offsetting my $30 loss on Pick Three and $10 on a Spectacular Bid exacta bet gone slightly off target.



Have fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 8, 2011; Gulfstream Park Pick Three including the Hal's Hope Grade III

The holidays are over, and when you live in Buffalo, all you have left to look forward to is two solid months of miserable cold weather and snow and short, dark days. It's not hard to turn your eyes south and focus on the fact that the horse racing season has begun. The Hal's Hope and the Spectacular Bid are a good way to reengage with Gulfstream Park, where many of the best horses in America have been wintering and planning their campaigns. Let's get it on!

Gulfstream Park Pick Three Race 7-8-9



This is a challenging three race sequence. I'm OK with handicapping any race, but the other side of the coin is actually betting, and when I got done handicapping these Past Performances I was left with the feeling that I was either dead on or wildly whacked. The Turk is a big advocate of responsible betting. That wasn't a moral message about controlling your vices, as the Turk also doesn't judge anyone. What I mean by responsible betting is long ago I gave up the notion I had to bet every race I watched or handicapped. I pick and choose my marks, and I watched my personal ROI skyrocket as I got over the inclination of reflex betting. I still lay duds from time to time, but its fewer and farther in between because I'm perfectly OK with holding back the bet, handicapping, and then critiquing my handicap after the fact to try and analyze why I was so risk averse. Funny things happen when you do this: Sometimes you win and leave good money on the table, and sometimes you lose. Either way, learn something from every handicap, and of course, have fun!

Race 7, the Spectacular Bid, was won last year by a Turk favorite, A Little Warm. We again express our remorse over the loss of A Little Warm's owner, Edward Evans. Nine horses are entered and I struggled with naming a chalk. As a bit of a stretch, and an eye towards value, I placed Grande Shores on top. The son of Black Mambo comes off the pace well, and there will be a hot pace with Wildcat Formation and Duel Exhauzt, and I think he's improving and may catch a few of the assuredly better colts off their games today. To not like is the 0% win Jock/Trainer combo in 25 races at GP.

Leave of Absence runs back after a a 94 BSF at the Big A in November. Training sharply, the Harlan's Holiday son is trained by Richard Violette.

Gangsterontherun is my expected winner, also making his third start like Leave of Absence. Solis is up for Trainer Wesley Ward and the horse has been training very sharply at GP since Thanksgiving and put up two :47 3/5 4f efforts recently.

A tough race indeed and if I wanted to over cover I'd throw in Duel Exhauzt and a Desormeaux mount, War for Gus.

Race 8 is a stocked 1 mile turf N3X Optional Claimer. I think that Guy's Reward and Sleepless Knight are the best of the field. Kelly Breen trained Sleepless Knight is coming off a long layoff, something he only wins 11% of the time, but has won 3 of 6 turf races and 5 of 6 in the money.

Guy's Reward won on yielding turf last time out at CD in late November. The 4YO son of Grand Reward has Desourmeaux up again and Desormeaux and Trainer Romans win together 30% of the time. Expect a nice late turn of foot.

I like the Roger Attfield runner Jimmy Simms to challenge based on the 6 YOs consistently purposeful running. Asphalt is a 4 YO War Chant son who is 9 of 12 in the money on turf. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins 21% on turf and Leparoux/Keeneally win 20% of the time together in a many start relationship. Dark Cove and Oil Man (IRE) loom as possibles as well. If Dark Cove runs he may need a new jock as Leparoux is assigned to him as well.

And in Race 9, the Hal's Hope, one monster looms, one challenger is possible, and one deja vu horse reemerges. The monster seems to be Morning Line. Nick Zito's runner has two straight 100+ BSF including a very gutty Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, losing by a head to Dakota Phone. 6 of 7 lifetime in the money for the 4 YO son of Tiznow.

Soaring Empire (pictured above) also has two straight 100+ BSF efforts including a deceptive 6th in the Cigar Mile Grade I. Trainer Cam Gambolati is winless in four graded stakes efforts and only started 78 runners in 2010.

Rule returns is the deja vu moment, as last winter he seemed on the verge of a breakout only to be shutdown after failing in the Florida Derby as the chalk. Trainer Pletcher wins 23% of his greater than 180 day layoffs but this seems daunting. Takleberry will gamely provide pace.

I've put together two variations of a $36-$30 dollar pick three bet that is defensive and maybe meek. I may have to rethink as scratches and changes flow in.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!