Wireplayers Derby Dozen Poll, the Spiral Stakes dartboard and Remembering Ami

Friends, the Derby Preps have revealed almost everything and nearly nothing over the past few months. I feel like white is black and black is white when I try to analyze who will be in the top five 49 days from now in the Kentucky Derby. As always, the Superfecta and Super High Five will be my betting drugs de jour and right now I just don't seem to have much insight. I will say I close my eyes and I see four horses jostling and competing their way up the stretch in The Rebel and I think to myself, "....this is what a prep is supposed to be like: similar surface, contested not by front running speed but by gutty off the pace guys."





The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll number 3 is out and Cairo Prince remains on top.



Hopportunity jumped into our Poll at #6. I have the feeling the Derby road runs through Arkansas this year.

Running through Kentucky today is the Turfway Park Spiral Stakes. Tomorrow is the Sunland Derby: two preps that launched Derby winners in recent years.

White is black and black is white.

I don't have time or energy to ramble too much about the Spiral so I'll let the handicap speak for itself.



Finally, I said goodbye to longtime Turk cat, Ami today. Ami was feral when she moved into my yard a decade ago. It took time and patience to earn her trust, but we did earn it and she led a good healthy life until a few months ago when she suddenly developed lung cancer. She was a tough cat, most likely from having to survive everyday outdoors. She fought the last few months bravely. She waits by the Rainbow Bridge for my family now.

The Nomination Is In: March 24, 2012: The Late Pick Three at Turfway Park on Spiral Day

Funny things happen when a prep race launches a Kentucky Derby Winner, all of the sudden you are the place to be. Like Mine That Bird putting the Sunland Derby on the map, so has Animal Kingdom placed the Spiral Stakes back on the map.

For those of you who get sucked into this Triple Crown Derby Trail madness, this is a mellow weekend, the calm before the Florida Derby storm next weekend.

The latest edition of the insightful Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll came out last week and the focus has really narrowed to some of the seriously hyped superstars at the top, which at least, they have backed up the hype with solid performances. With today's Spiral Stakes and tomorrow's Sunland Derby, some minor players will have a chance to impress and give the handicappers on Derby morning something interesting to think about.



The Wireplayer Poll was all over Animal Kingdom last year, so pay close attention to them as well as the folks at The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers. For those of you new to this sport, I know the lingo and the past performances can seem a little daunting. Check out Hello Race Fans!, a wonderful site for the beginner and expert alike. When all else fails and you need some real iron pipe locks, check out my secret handicapping weapon.

Today's affair is on the fake dirt of Turfway Park. Weather isn't much of an issue with the fake stuff, but there are thunderstorms in the area, so pay attention to the weather, the scratches and the changes.

I'm going to assemble a pick three out of my base handicap, using an assortment of horses coded Blue or Yellow. I'm planning on staying pretty close to what I have here in my base handicap:



As always, watch the tote board and strike a balance between the base handicap choices and value. An example of this can be found in the Spiral Stakes: Ill Conceived lost by a head to State of Play in the prep for the Spiral, the Battaglia Memorial. Shippers with plenty of hype like Heavy Breathing will garner lots of betting action and you'd be wise to place the Pletcher trained son of Giant's Causeway at the top of your base handicap, but are we here to win $2.10 or $10 bucks on a $2 win bet flyer? Straight on that friends!

Have fun with it, enjoy this weekend's racing. If you pay attention, this year's wiseguy favorite for the Kentucky Derby might be right in front of you.

Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day September 26th, 2009: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II at Turfway Park

"...because the house always wins.

Play long enough, the house takes you.

Unless, when that perfect hand comes,
you bet big. Then you take the house."

Daniel Ocean, noted gambler.

The Turk doesn't gloat. The Turk is a horseplayer who knows better then to do anything except cash the tickets quietly and hope to cash another. No promises in this game. The Turk had several people today ask me why I picked the Kentucky Classic Cup to handicap and not some of the more high profile races at Laurel or Belmont. Easy question, because I thought I could win this one.

Turfway Park Race 13: The Kentucky Classic Cup Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and Up.



As I said pre-race, there was a stratification between the top 6 and the bottom 3. They could run this race 10 times and I don't think that bottom 3 changes order. It's that kind of conviction that sets up one of my favorite angles "The large field with one heavy chalk and some obvious dogs" angle. Doesn't exactly roll off the tounge but it describes it perfectly, even if it didn't work as I expected.

It was clear to me that the bettors would fawn over Hold Me Back and why not. As a bettor I use the heavy chalk to help me fill one spot in an exotic ticket even though I understand it will reduce the payout. I pointed out that Hold Me Back was a tepid chalk in my book so I boxed him in both the Tri and the Super's. My base handicap was pretty darn accurate with the big difference being the flip flop of Hold Me Back and essentially Furthest Land. The Turk slotted the 2nd place, 3rd place, 5th,
7th, 8th and 9th place finishers in exacting order. You can make some hay like that.

Quality, not quantity. Know when not to bet, and that is much more often then when you should bet. When you see something set up before your eyes, and you been doing it long enough to see the repetitive patterns, bet as big as your budget will allow and never a cent more. I was rewarded today.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 26, 2009; The Kentucky Cup Classic Grade II at Turfway Park and Remembering El Prado and Kona Gold

That fine looking colt is none other then the only winner of the Grade II Lane's End and Kentucky Cup Classic, Hard Spun. Why is it relevant? The Turk's pre race chalk in today's Kentucky Cup Classic is Hold Me Back, the 2009 winner of the Grade II Lane's End.

We could start with the weather in Florence, or the track condition, but don't bother, the polytrack fake stuff is always listed as fast. I do dig the Turfway Park website very much, and I love Kentucky horse racing no matter if their own elected representatives are unprepared to level the playing field and allow race casino's. I digress and I'll surrender this type of dialog to serious media types who don't refer to themselves in the third person.

Turfway Park Race 13, Post Time 6:21 ET; The Kentucky Cup Classic Grade II; 1 1/8 miles on neither turf nor dirt for 3 YOs and up.



It's an interesting field and as I built my handicap it occurred to me that their is a stratification of quality horses here and then some field fillers that should start running 2 seconds earlier. With 10 cent super's available, my goal shifted to building my handicap to identify the layer, slot the horses as best as possible to avoid too many boxed combinations, and then roll the dice. Let's get after it.

Hold Me Back, and the effort he is coming in off of on sloppy dirt at Saratoga cannot be ignored. A Grade II winner at Turfway Park as I previously mentioned, a nice 5f at BEL in 1:00 flat signals current form hasn't regressed. The 3 YO is 4 of 4 in the money on synthetic. Trainer Mott and Jock Leparoux hit at 24% for the year. An iron pipe lock? Nope, but a good 40% chance to win and he'll headline most of the exotic combo's I'll assemble.

After Hold Me Back, I love the parity of the next four runners and I only see subtle shading between them. Dubious Miss has C. Borel up, and that horse/jock combo has been unbeatable. Coming in off a solid 2nd in a Grade II at Arlington at 1 3/16, expect to see the 5 YO gelding come off the pace instead of a run from the far back. 3 Of 4 in the money on Synthetic and owner of the race's best lifetime BSF on synth at 105, should be in the top 4 (I'll say that at least 4 more times).

Sligovitz, a Woodbine invader for trainer Attfield, is 8 of 8 on synthetic tracks and 13 of 17 lifetime in the money. Why is this horse here? Because a smart horseman looking at the conditions book thought he could win. I expect a top four finish.

Wicked Style and Furthest Land are in this repetitive "I think a top four finish" mix. Wicked Style will be more favored by the bettors then me, and it's not that I'm down on the 4 YO son of Macho Uno I just believe handicappers should take a firm opinion even when explaining uncertainty. Lots to like including a :48 sec 4f work this week at KEE. 5 of 6 lifteime in the money on synthetic and 5 of 6 overall in the money in 2009. If his running style holds, he'll strike to just off the leaders early on and his fortunes will be decided by the trip of others as much as his abilities. R. Albarado is up for Trainer Arnold today. Expect a mid 90's BSF and bottom of the top 4 or 5th.

Furthest Land is coming off a long layoff and has Garret Gomez up (It sorta worked on in the Woodbine Mile last week). Trainer Maker has supertrainer stats: 28% routes, 31% synthetics, 27% 61-180 day layoffs, and an ugh with graded stakes at 5% in 19 tries. Big fish, small tanks? Not an insult at all, just an observation. Nice training pattern punctuated with :59 5f efforts

I'm still mulling where Timeless Fashion plays with my handicap today. 6 of 6 on synth, 6 of 6 at TP, a capable ungraded stakes runner who will provide much of the pace and you never know where a horse like this will land when the blanket drops across the wire. Distance could be the issue.

I'd be remiss in not remembering two more fallen stars, El Prado and Kona Gold.

El Prado(Ire) in a John Kaiser photo.



Kona Gold in a James Shambhu photo.



Rest in Peace and your humans will see you at the Rainbow Bridge.

I'd also be remiss in not reminding readers of The Turk that there is some fantastic writing taking place in a build up towards the Breeders' Cup. Members of the Thorougbred Bloggers Alliance have divvied up the various racing divisions to bring the readers individual analysis of each of the Breeders' Cup races. This is an exciting development for the Thorughbred Bloggers Allance, of which the Turk is a proud member of, so if you are passionate about horse racing, and I know you are because you're reading this, check out this link for the TBA Blogs at the NTRA website building towards the Breeders' Cup.

The Nominations Are In: March 21, 2009: Lane's End Stakes and San Luis Rey Handicap

This week is a bit of a breather from the hectic pace and volume of the major Kentucky Derby prep races. The Turk picked two races to handicap this week, one at Turfway Park and one at Santa Anita. The first up is at Turfway Park, The Lane's End Stakes, a Grade II race at 1 1/8 miles across a synthetic surface, for 3 YOs.

What I liked right away about this race was the size and the quality of the field. This should be an exciting race. I'm not saying the quality is Grade 1, but 10 of the 12 horses entered are Triple Crown race nominated and are quality Grade Three competitors. Two horses stand out from the rest of the field, Bittel Road and West Side Bernie. Both will go off at unattractive odds, and that is the type of situation a shrewd handicapper will look to exploit for value on the tote board.



I'm giving a slight edge to West Side Bernie, and if forced to think about building a strategy right now, I would say I'm leaning towards a boxed Trifecta that also includes Bittel Road and then a value horse, like an Orthodox or a Parade Clown, both of whom should enter the gate at >10-1. As my readers know, I'm really not about betting strategy: I lay them out the way I think they will finish and then I fashion tickets when I do bet based off my charts. Because this race, in my estimation, contains a real parity level, some simple win or exacta bets, or just saying no to betting altogether might be in order. We all make our own decisions. if looking for longshots, don't hesitate to look at Lock Dubh. He's worked well and he's coming off a Southwest field that had Old Fashioned and Silver City. He's won on this course and today gets Borel up. A closer and a closer.
For the sharp eyed, or able to read, that is 2007 Lane's End Stakes winner, and Turk idol, Hard Spun. Adrianno, you never had a chance.

At the Great Race Place, beautiful and bankrupt Santa Anita, The San Luis Rey Handicap, Grade II, 1 1/2 miles on Turf for 4 YO and Up. A smallish field of seven horses take on this 1 1/2 mile turf challenge, which is lead by Spring House and You Got Me Rocking.



It is an interesting race, with a 9 YO (Bonjour), an 8 YO (Artiste Royal), a 7 YO (Spring House), 3 5 YOs (Medici Code, You Got Me Rocking and On Fire) and a 4 YO (Midships). Other handicapping factors play in, such as recovery time between hard efforts for the older horses. There is 161 career starts among this field, and 33 career turf wins (20.5%). I like Spring House for his current form, his endurance, and for his connections. To the sharp eyed amongst you, that's none other then You Got Me Rocking's owner, the legend, Mr. Burt Bacharach.

The Turk doesn't like to handicap them, but he loves the downhill turf races at Santa Anita. The 9th Race today is the Joe Hernandez, and the Turk may lay 2 bucks down on US Ranger, in his first action since the Breeder's Cup, in honor of honorary Turk and long time friend, Lt. Col Michael David Morgan, a proud Ranger himself.

Post Race Analysis for Raceday February 28, 2009

The first day of March. It's bitterly cold outside, but after yesterday, my Derby fever is really heating up.

There are 401 horses nominated for this year's Triple Crown and the contenders are starting to peal away slowly from the vast number of pretenders. For each Old Fashioned, we have numerous Parade Clown. For each Quality Road we have a plethora of Jack Spratt. For each The Pamplemousse we have Tiz True in legion.

I don't blame the horses, I never blame the horses. Horses are what they are. It's us humans that assign the lofty goals to them. Some of these horses in the Past Performances with the fancy Triple Crown nominee logo will be fun runners, some graded stakes winners, some hard knockers who give it their all and thrill us for years after this year's 3 YOs are off at stud.

I watched four races yesterday, with mixed, semi-poor results. The handicapper in me knew that much is still to be revealed at this point in the year, so I kept the bets small and enjoyed the races for what they were.

Race 8 at Aqueduct: The Stymie Handicap, 1 1/8 miles on the inner dirt track for 3 YO and up.



I expected Researcher to be the chalk and I expected play on Manteca. I was semi-surprised that Barrier Reef was the chalk, but I was not surprised that he won. Pre race I thought that Real Merchant had a chance to be live and long, but I was shocked at how well the foreign raider did here. I liked Barrier Reef's form and success at A, and I think Researcher was just away a bit too long. He'll be back.

Race 9 at Gulfstream Park: The Fountain of Youth Stakes G2, 1 mile for 3 YOs.



I missed on Quality Road. Pre Race when I poured over the PP I noted a few things about the horse: "Hadn't raced since 10 Jan. First time Lasix, Trainer sports 33% win rate in Graded Stakes and J/T don't run alot together, but when they do, they win 40% of the time. 5f in :58 and 2/5 seconds." I didn't like the post position and I didn't like the long layoff. I liked others better, it happens every week.

The number of prep races and chances to bolster earnings are dwindling. Each week, there are heavy hyped horses that seem to stumble when it is their moment to shine. Capt. Candyman Can and Taqarub and This One's for Phil leave me wondering where they fit in. The distance and the trip that these horses took will make me revisit this race several times this week as I try to assign meaning to the chaos. This is the fun part of handicapping, forgiving blame for some efforts and taking credit away from horses that at first blush did well. All that said, I missed on Quality Road. It wasn't that I didn't like him, I just liked others more, so shame on Turk.



Race 9, Santa Anita Park: The Sham Stakes G3, 1 1/8 miles on pro ride for 3 YOs.



The Pamplemousse. He's been wow in his workouts, he's wow physically, and he just toyed with the field in the Sham and made it look way too easy.

Todd Pletcher reminds us he knows a thing about horses. He found a better race for Take the Points and at the same time showed that the colt can run on synthetics just fine. I guess that will be the trifecta of stud values next, getting the G1 on dirt, turf and synth.

As predicted, a Calvary charge left the final results muddled. I swung for the fences on series of straight trifecta bets. If Mark S the Cooler ($22.60) or Hi Flyin Indy ($59.20) make it into the mix, I'm gloating about a big payout. Instead I bet 8 bucks to gain $22.10. Consistency will always rule over the long haul.

And finally I looked at Turfway Park, The John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on synth for 3 YOs.



I'm not done yawning after two Triple Crown pretenders fizzled, one scratched, and one losing to a good, but out classed opponent.

The Nominations Are In (Part 1): Race Day February 28, 2009

The Turk is looking at three Triple Crown prep races today, at three different tracks. First up is The Stymie Handicap at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 miles on the Inner Track Dirt for 3 YOs

As readers of the Turk know, I'm not advocating a betting strategy with my posts. Instead I am ordering the field based on how I view the most logical outcome. From my ordering of the field I will then look for value on the tote board and create my simple betting stategies which I place small amounts of money on. My arcane sense of excitement is winning regularly while betting little.

My biggest flaw as a handicapper is overlooking the obvious. I overlook track bias often as well as current form. Knowing this, I try to tweek my handicapping each week to compensate.

In the Stymie, it would be easy for me to overlook the current form of Barrier Reef , possibly ignore the lack of current form with Researcher, or overreach on a foreign invader like Real Merchant.

All that said, I am after all looking for value and I'm not interested in placing down two bucks on the chalk to show. I think there are a few horses, Manteca and Judith's Wild Rush in particular that could win at >8-1.

"Order the field and watch the tote" Mrs. Turk tells me I mumble that in my sleep. By the way, that is Stymie (pictured above) when he was at stud. He was the foal daddy of last week's feature, Rare Treat.

In the second race of my day, I'm looking at is at Gulfstream Park, Race 9, The Fountain of Youth Stakes, reimagined at 1 Mile on very fast dirt, for 3 YOs'.



This is a race that personifies what I was rambling about: There are numerous winners in this field, so if you do feel complelled to bet, find value. I am going to slightly discount Notonthesamepage, who has been drilling well but unraced since January 3rd.
I generally discount the outside posts at GP somewhat, but i'm looking for Capt. Candyman Can or Taqarub (pictured) from the 7 and 8 hole to play a promienent role in the race. 8 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are here, this will be a barn burner, and with that hard dirt, I would expect a big BSF to come out of this as well.

And the last race for this afternoon, is Race 11 at Turfway Park, the John Battaglia Memorial, 1 1/16 mile on fake dirt for 3 YOs.. For the uninformed, John Battalia is the former general manager of the old Latonia Race Course, which is now known as Turfway Park.



A current betting angle is finding races with horses that I believe have a greater then 75% chance to win or place and filling the boxed ticket in around them. I think that is very possible here, a series of boxed trifectas or supers.


I'll be back in a few hours to look at The Sham at the Great Race Place