Post Race Analysis for Race Day May 21, 2011: The Late Pick 4 Preakness Day at Pimlico

Is your bourbon glass half full or half empty?

I find myself asking that as I sat here alone going through the days events. On one hand I am blogging about a day with an over $5,000 profit, yet, as I studied the race chart, I realized that I had the Super High Five choices cold within my Superfecta bet on the Preakness, and the Superhigh Five paid a whopping $49,742.

I left alot of money on the table with a bet I never considered. My creature of habit ways that I preach as the secret to my consistent results can sometimes work against me when considering new ideas.

My nature is half full and I'm not regretful at all. I'll learn from this and when I have the feeling like I had today I'll consider the Super High Five and maybe karma will be there for me.

Let's get after it!

Pimlico Pick 4 Race 9-12



i could taste this Pick Four and in the end it didn't work out. I was high on Shackleford for the Kentucky Derby but I really thought the speed wouldn't carry today and it did.

Race 9 started great for me; I loved Shared Account but I went into the race planning to bet against her and I nailed No Explaining cold. I'm a big Roger Attfield fan over the grass and his filly looked great up the stretch. I placed for me a rare win bet which paid $8.80 and I had a simple four horse superfecta box that I cashed as well.

I passed on betting in race 10 with the scratches, especially Pleasant Prince, my chalk. I covered Apart in the Pick 4 and stayed alive. I like the way the colt battled, something I hadn't seem much in him previously.

I was high on Baryshnikov in race 11 and he only faltered ounder a gritty effort by Paddy O' Prado who I wisely covered in the Pick 4 to stay alive again.

And finally in the Preakness I had tunnel vision on betting the Superfecta and never considered the Super High Five. Never once did I consider the bet. I'm not too proud to admit mistakes and I'll learn from it. Even the Ol' Turk learns new tricks as time goes by. I went deep into my handicap for the Superfecta, skipping over only Flashpoint who I thought would rabbit and falter, which he did. I didn't cover Shackleford in the Pick 4 as I thought he'd fizzle and die to, but in reality, I was too conservative. Adding him to my Pick 4 would have cost me an additional $96 and I would have netted $255. I don't like to over cover in the P4, so ( have to love with it.

I'm not going to sing the blues about woulda, shoulda, coulda bets. I hit a big time signer and I was all over this card as well as the Black Eyed Susan card. Staying consistent and keeping an open mind about opportunities like the Super high Five is the lesson I'll take from this.

I'm drained. Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In Part 2: Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double

Well it's not quite as exciting as when the bean counters bring out the votes at the Oscars, but The Turk has finally gotten around to his Preakness picks to finish his Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double.

I'm swinging for the fences friends. The more I look, the more I like the filly Hot Summer, but I'm letting her go and I've loaded up the Black Eyed Susan selections with longer odds and more rewards. The goal of my bet should be to keep the number of selections low, so in order to find value I'm taking what would be my B-/C+ horses and making them my A+'s.

Let's get to it!



In the Preakness, I see four strong win chances with Astrology, Dance City, Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man, and then I have the heavily hyped Dialed In, a fine colt but I'm gagging on all the praise about his final quarter in the Kentucky Derby. I need to listen to my own advice and not read or listen to pre race hype.

I love these multi day double bets, it really gets me jazzed as a horse racing fan. My main focus on today and tomorrow will be Pick 3 and pick 4 as well as inner race Superfectas. I'll be handicapping at least 4 races for tomorrow that I'll blog later, but this Double Bet is a chance to swing for the fences and have some fun. I'm keeping the covers to a minimum and my bet just 2 in the Black Eyed Susan and 4 in the Preakness.

I am a horse racing fan and I'm always hoping for a Triple Crown, so I wish for Animal Kingdom to win, but as a bettor I like Dance City to go at better than 12-1. I like him at this distance, his Arkansas Derby and his work since.

Again, don't break the bank on the double bets, have some fun with it instead.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: May 20 and 21, 2011:The Black-Eyed Susan & Preakness Stakes Double

OK, I'm a big fat liar! I sit here on Thursday night before Black Eyed Susan day at Pimlico and I have not finished the back half of one of my favorite bets of the year, The Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double. As a working class fella I get busy sometimes,and my job doesn't seem to give a s**t about the stakes schedule. I'll finish my Preakness selections and update my chart tomorrow. Let's just look at the Black Eyed Susan right now and think about a low priced bet with a good chance for a high return.

With 14 starters in the Preakness and only 6 in the Black Eyed Susan , I have to tell you, the bet's value seems to me to have its value drivers coming from a long shot in the smaller field, while the larger Preakness field I'm thinking will finish sorta chalky. The Ol'Turk may be crazy, but hey, I refer to myself in the third person so how sane can I be? Lets get after this!


Pimlico Race 12: The Grade I Black Eyed Susan



I really hate small fields. I find small fields in Grade I racing to be the biggest sin of all. I had to get that off my chest.

I'm looking for value in my Double Bet and betting chalk on both ends isn't going to do it for me, so we'll assemble something that will either bring us fame and glory or leave us as a hot mess.

I'm looking to hang my chances on hot mess status with Love Theway Youare; Little Turk's favorite trainer, Myung Kwon Cho, brings his Arch daughter in off a nice N1X win at 1 1/16 miles on fake dirt at HOL. That came off a win at SA on the dirt. Seems posed to strike at a good price and a 416 Tomlinson wet rating doesn't hurt. Steps up big time in class and we'll hope she hits the wire first but don't bet your mortgage.

Royal Delta comes in off a last race best Beyer and training very sharply with a 5f :59 2/5ths at BEL 8 May and :48 at 4f this past week. Trainer William Mott places Lezcano up on the Empire Maker daughter and the two combine to clip along at 24%.

I think I'll only cover three and in my "all covers offer value" mindset I'll back Coax Liberty; Go Go Gomez is up for Trainer James Lawrence and the stakes winner has the most starts in the field at 10 and has been in the money 8 times, with today's wildcard being the full 1/4 mile she adds in distance from her comfort zone.

Today's handicap isn't for the faint of heart but with the Double Bet, I like to swing for fences a bit.

Have fun and enjoy the weekends races.

Turk Out!