The Nomination Is In: The Grade 2 Lake Placid and the Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga

Spa Giveaway-Alabama Day 2008

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 9th year and 11th month of providing handicapping and bet construction to people who never asked for it.  It is, however free, and it as I might add, positive ROI over a long period of time.  

Why does the Turk blog?  I guess the easiest answer is he likes too.  Some people like crosswords, some watch Jeopardy, some online porn.  Me, I like my work very much and blogging is an extension of my work.  I analyze data and I develop good money strategy, which is exactly what I do for a living.  

I was out (albeit briefly) at Del Mar last week, and next Saturday I'll be in Saratoga for Travers Day. I haven't attend a Travers since 2007, when the Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense avoided the Spa Curse, and also the day Hard Spun became a Grade 1 winner in the King's Bishop.    I stopped going because I felt priced out.  I'm not super cost conscious, but Stub-Hubbed tickets in the clubhouse have gotten very pricey for the Travers and instead I started coming for either Alabama or Woodward Stakes day.  I purchased tickets in the hope of possibly seeing Justify, but I'm good with whomever shows up and quite frankly, I'm getting excited to see Wonder Gadot take on the colts.  I've enjoyed alot of Alabama Days and the hat pictured above was a bit of swag the Spa gave away in 2008.   I admit tho, I'm getting rain fatigue this meet and I'm dreading working hard on a multi race handicap only to see races pulled from turf or multiple scratches.  I'm going to hunker down and assume that the track is at least sloppy and sealed and the turf is soft.  The weather, is going to be wet.  You'll find the real Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes for NYRA/Saratoga here.  

My handicapping plan was to develop a Pick Three Strategy for Race 8-9-10, the G2 Lake Placid on Turf, The Alabama and a $25,000 1 Mile Turf Claimer that I fear will either be cancelled or shifted to the main track after I spend quality time on it.   Let's get after it!

Video Review for the G2 Lake Placid:  1 1/8 Miles on Mellon Turf.

G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational: 1 1/4 Miles Firm BEL turf 

G3 Lake George: 1 1/16 on SAR outer (Mellon) Turf



G3 Wonder Again Stakes: 1 1/8 Miles Bel inner Turf



G2 Appalachian:  1 Mile over yielding turf at KEE




Penn Oaks $200K; 1 Mile on Firm Turf




And the video review for The Alabama 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt

G1 CCA Oaks 1 1/8 Miles on fast Dirt



Indiana Oaks G3: 1 1/16 Miles on Fast Dirt





Delaware Oaks G3:  1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt



The Mother Goose G2: 1 1/16 Miles on fast BEL dirt.




What to make of this?




Instead of rambling about this one, I think I'm just going to let my base handicaps and fair lines speak for themselves.  These races were handicapped assuming soft turf and sloppy and sealed dirt. 

Midnight Bisou will most likely be singled on my Pick 3.  I'll be assembling value exactas on both races as I think there are some very good possibilities for both races. Hopefully the field sizes don't change.

I'll be back tomorrow with Race 10 once I get a feel for if the race will be run, by who and on what surface.

Turk out!

Post Race Analysis of The Arlington Million Pick 5

I dreamed last night that my losing tickets were shredded and used as confetti on my "loser parade". Yeah, I had a bad day. As a handicapper you know it will happen, but it's been some time since I had such a spectacularly bad day.

The Turk has rules, rules I take seriously, but being human I sometimes break my rules. The key rule broken yesterday is to bet easier marks than an all turf, all Stake races, Pick 5 with Past Performances littered with Europeans and the turf less than firm. If there is any analysis to be performed, that is it. I knew these would be hard races but I didn't anticipate how much blood would be shed.

I've been a Little Mike fan for two years now but I would have never picked him to win a Million. As a horse fan, I'm happy for the connections of this Florida bred. It reminds me how these animals have brains and instincts and guts and those intangibles can't be ignored.

My thoughts are with the Live Oak connections today as Zo Impressive was vanned off after the Alabama in Saratoga. This Hard Spun daughter and Grade 1 winner didnt seem comfortable and still had the guts to finish fourth. Hard Spun and Little Mike remind me alot of each other.

Speaking of Hard Spun, his British born daughter, Questing is turning into quite the freak, winning her second Grade 1 on the track her father won the Kings Bishop on in 2007.

Whenever I have a day like yesterday my confidence as a bettor can be shaken. Confidence is a key component in what I do, and when I feel a lack of confidence I find myself betting timidly. I find the best medicine is to just back after it, picking winners and exactas. I'll head to Fort Erie Tuesday night and take in the early evening post times to get the mojo going again.

Not much reason to break these races down too much. I'll follow some of the horses out of these races and see what I can do with them next time out.









2012 Arlington Million Grade 1






2012 Beverly D. Grade 1



2012 Alabama Grade 1



2007 King's Bishop Grade 1



The Turk's red pen will rest today. Even horses get sent to the farm to recover now and then, I think I will retreat to the back 40 for a cigar.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: August 29, 2009; The King's Bishop Grade I at Saratoga

That good looking colt in the Terence Dulay photo is none other then the 2007 King's Bishop Winner, Hard Spun. That was one heck of a hard knocking, hard charging horse, and you have to wonder when handicapping which one of today's King's Bishop contenders has the kind of guts needed to run flat out for seven furlongs.

The weather at race time looks iffy. Right now the track is already listed as sloppy, so don't expect a miracle dry out between now and post.

Race 11 at Saratoga, Post Time 5:10 ET: The King's Bishop Grade I; 7 Furlongs on sloppy dirt for 3 YOs.



The Turk has had great success handicapping Turf races at Saratoga this meet and I've been so-so on the main track. You should never lie to yourself. When I visited Saratoga last week I decided to watch the races closely and handicap but not bet. After each race I ripped apart the trip and my handicap and I worked out a few kinks. I'd love to say that I had a satori, a sudden awakening, that will instantly improve my Saratoga dirt ROI, but no.

I did have two sloppy track days to just sit and watch from the clubhouse. One thing that struck me was how fast the main track played while still listed as sloppy. The other thing that an off track teaches you is that quality horses win under almost all conditions. The Turk's basic philosophy is to build my base handicap regardless of track condition and then factor track condition into the shading between horses. It's a factor, yes, but does it dominate all thinking, no.

Post position is another factor, but not an overriding consideration, much less significant then say, current race conditioning. Many people will tell you that Big Drama won the race before the race, and with Coa up and breaking from the 8 spot, he will have the best view coming out out of the top of the stretch. Mrs. Turk clearly feels that way as she's backing Big Drama. There is lots to like, especially the 2 for 3 at this distance and a BSF of 108. I don't like that 5 of 6 career wins were as a 2 YO and that the horse has never raced on a wet or sloppy track. Will he like mud in his face? On the outside, will he eagerly move inside and come off the pace? I dunno. What I do know is I think the horse has the quality to be somewhere in the top three.

I'm backing Capt. Candyman Can in my top spot. I don't think he's better then either Big Drama or Munnings, but this is gambling and I think he loves this distance, is coming off a big effort against Quality Road and has won on an off track before. There's nothing in either Trainer Wilkes or Jock Catellano's stats that make me feel strongly, but there are no major negatives either. The horse is a Grade II and Grade III winner and this son of Candy Ride is a quality runner who likes to break late and may find two fast, superior horses tiring from the slop.

Munnings is a big favorite of mine. I love the speed of this very classy Speightstown son very much. He has run a 108 BSF on an off track and a 111 BSF at this distance. To me he is the best horse in this field and could easily win and has no excuse for not being in the top three.

A few intriguing horses lurk outside the top three. Despite the Odds is mid pack from gate 5, is training very well and has run very well and fast on a sloppy track. Vineyard Haven is a Godolphin runner I loved last fall and I don't have any feel for how he will respond to his first action since February. Everyday Heroes and Flat Bold are solid Grade III runners and could sneak into the exotic tickets.

I'm on the hunt for a trifecta as super's are not on the menu for this race. I'm going to place a few straight trifecta and exact bets and we'll see what happens.

Have fun. Turk Out!

Say it isn't so....Larry?

While the Turk does not pretend to be an industry expert or insider, he does have plenty of opinions on the continuing decline in interest with horse racing and the plunging level of exposure the sport receives in the media. This troubles the Turk deeply and he wonders if the little Turk will still have a sport to blog about one day.

I akin Horse Racing to College Football. In College Football, the fans are rapid about the institution of a particular program. LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State...It doesn't matter the names on the back of the jerseys, it's about the program that those jerseys represent.

I think it can and should be the same with Horse Racing. We will never see the days again when our equine heroes race as much as they did in the past. We have these animals for a few months of their 2yo careers, their 3yo seasons, and then many of them are gone. I loved a horse last year named Hard Spun. Most of you have heard of him. He was a tough horse, not the best 3yo in 2007, but game and arguably the forth best 3yo behind Curlin, Rags to Riches and Street Sense. To build momentum in the national media behind a star who has an 18 month career just isn't going to work. I don't need to work on Madison Avenue to understand that.

My analogy creates institutions around the great tracks. It creates rivalry races with champions from different meets. It creates intuitions out of our great breeders, our great owners, our great trainers, and our great jockeys. These are the people and those tracks are the places that endure year in an year out. Until the general public is enthralled by something they can follow, the sport will always be a curiosity in our current cultural environment.

I know this is a simplification, but complicated issues must be solved by a series of simple premises that are built upon each other. Sooner or later the greater good of the industry must be addressed by the various factions involved. It may take a forced participation, similar to a union that must be joined. A union makes decisions for the best of all employees (in therory), not just one individual. Owners/Trainers/Track Owners/Breeders must be joined to some greater common good eventually.

Which leads me back to Hard Spun. Hard Spun's trainer, Larry Jones, announced in late September that he hoped to be retired from racing by after the 2009 Breeders Cup. Larry is one of the true colorful trainers in the business today. Likeable and genuine in a way that is endearing to race fans. How many of you wished he trained Big Brown? I know I do. It's a true shame because losing Larry is our loss, a national exposure trainer that the media liked and looked to for marketing. The death of his filly Eight Belles is a real-life Greek tragedy, and Larry wore the episode on his sleeve. I can't imagine what he went through this year, with the scrutiny of outsiders to our industry questioning his methods, his motivations, his ethics.

The Turk knows there are no easy answers. The Turk also knows that our passion is an ostrich with its head in the ground hoping that bad times go away. There has to be people who place the industry over their own personal wealth and good. I don't know if that person or persons exist. What I do know is we are about to lose one of my favorite trainers and someone I had hoped would be a year in and out challenger to the best races for a long time.

Don't stay away too long Larry.