The Nomination Is In: The Ellis Park Kentucky Downs Preview Day

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, nearly 10 full years and over 630 blog post offers to a reading public that never asked for such dreadful writing.  

I'll be honest, I’m not sure The Turk, late in our 9th year of blogging and with over 600 blog posts, has ever blogged Ellis Park Racing.  The Turk has zero bias against the good people of Ellis Park and their fine track, I'm just not sure I ever found the occasion to handicap and gamble there.  

Sunday's Kentucky Downs Preview Day gives me just such occasion.  Ellis Park racing secretary Dan Bork conceived the idea, envisioning Preview Day as “…being a win-win-win for the two tracks and their horsemen. Hence, the Ellis stakes are designed as launching pads to lucrative stakes at Kentucky Downs’ elite meet that runs Sept. 1, 6, 8, 9 and 13th.   Following a concept popularized by the Breeders’ Cup, the four winners of the Preview stakes are guaranteed a spot in the corresponding race at Kentucky Downs, as well as having their entry fees waived, a savings of $3,000 or $4,000 for the owners, depending on the race” (Ellis Park, 2018). 

I fell in love with Kentucky Downs and their quirky short meet, all turf schedule. The racing to me is phenomenal and as a gambler, it represents an incredible mental challenge.  It comes just after Saratoga and Del Mar wrap up and is some of the finest turf racing in North America, regardless who comes. 

The weather in Henderson, Kentucky looks like it was good Saturday and will be good on Sunday, so expect firm turf.  The turf oval is exactly one mile.  For the classic distance, the gate is at the top of the stretch. I'm primarily focused on Races 6 and 8 with Race 6 the Turf Cup Preview at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs and Up and Race 8  The Mile Preview for 3 YOs and Up.

Let's get after it!

Right off the bat, its clear Trainer Brian Cox has come ready to dominate.  In Race 6, an 8 horse field enters the classic distance route over grass.  Arklow, the 4 YO son of Arch will be the post time favorite and is my chalk for the win. The distance is something he's never raced at but is a cutback from 1 1/2 miles last time out.  He has the best late turn of foot.  Cox with Bridgmohan up are 38%  winners in 32 starts at EIP.  Cox's has great numbers period: 29% with 2nd off 45-180 days off, 28% turf winners in 552 tries, 29% route winners in 773 tries and 24% stakes winner in 229 tries. 

I show myself singling Arklow, but not completely sure I'll be doing that as he's no iron pipe lock for the win.  I have a trio listed just below:  Tizzarunner and Sir Dudley Digges are Classy while Harv Won't Tap represents late speed and value.  Harv Won't Tap is the classic overlay if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, not for Win but Place or Show.  The 4 YO has solid late speed and appears to be improving for Trainer Stidham. 

Flatlined and Rated R Superstar aren't that different and each has excellent late turns of foot as well.  Rated R Superstar goes over grass for just the second time and I can't see the ML 9-2 justification.  Trainer McPeek's Dirt to Turf  is 10% in 80 tries and he's only a 9% Turf Winner in 214 tries.  Minor prize only.  

In Race 8 at 1 Mile, Mr. Misunderstood does look like very heavy chalk: 9 wins in 12 Turf Starts, 4 wins in 5 starts at 1 Mile, and enters off G2 Wise Dan win beating World Approval who is pretty good at the turf racing thing.  Another Cox/Bridgmohan combo.  Cowboy Culture, a 4 YO Quality Road colt enters also for Cox.  First start of 2018.

Newly gelded Parlor is 8 of 12 in the money over grass and has the race best Timeform US late Pace fig of 124.  He's been a 82-87 Beyer horse until last race out 97 (Also the Wise Dan G2).  Beware regression. Seim Reip  is a classy under performer.  Very big early speed, the only question will be for how long he can carry it.  4 wins in 7 tries at 1 Mile and 6 of 7 in the money at the distance is encouraging. 

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet with the betting.  My initial thoughts working backwards is to single  Mr.Misunderstood in the 8th and slot the 9-2-6-1-8 for a $10 bet and hope for some value in the Place position.  In the 6th, the easy button is a $2  7-6-3-2  box for $24 but I don't like spending $24 on an exacta so I may just go 7-6 OVER 7-6-2 3 for $12. 

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Modesty and Arlington Handicap at Arlington Park

Kasaqui:  Four Footed Fotos

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

Today is my second favorite day of the year at arguably my favorite turf track in the United States, Arlington.  What used to be called Million Preview Day is now called Road to the Million, and my primary focus is on two 1 3/16 routes over grass.  By the way, Little Turk and I will be traveling to Arlington for the Million, our second straight year, and would love to meet any readers, you know yourselves, while we are there.


Race six is the Grade 3 Modesty, for Fillies and Mares, three and up while race 9 is the grade 3 Arlington Handicap.  Don't worry about the weather.

Let's get after it!





In the Modesty, Dona Bruja is a five year old Argentinian beast.  9 of 9 in the money over turf and a solid first start in the US in the G3 Mint Julep in early June.



Time and Motion is a Grade 1 winner as a three year old who hasn't quite found her groove as a four year old, with two starts and one Show finish.  Trainer James Toner started a freshening over Belmont turf for past six weeks. 8 of 12 in the money over turf, the Tapit daughter looks to get going in advance of Million day. Hard not to like the gutty and game Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup effort from last October.



Darling Duchess cuts back from 1 1/2 miles today where she won last time out in late May.  2 wins in six starts at this distance.  Speed is an issue.

Prado's Sweet Ride tracked along evenly in the AP Matt Spellman at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf a month ago.  As the chalk he finished in Show.  The 5 YO goes for Trainer Chris Block, winless in past 12 stake races.

Storming Elle and One Liz round out my potential exotics.  I tossed La Piba and Bonita Cat.  

Darling Duchess will be on the lead and should bring the speed.  I would expect only Dona Bruja and Time and Motion to make serious late runs.  The bet can be as simple as 1 and 3 Over the 1 and 3 Over some combination of horses, or maybe even the 1 Over 3 Over Field.  I'll stew on it and you do too!

The Arlington Handicap is a very nice field of fairly even quality with a few class standouts.  I could go into a major rant about why Arlington can't have more racing days like this, with more fields like this, but I'll sound like a broken record.  Industry insider Ray Paulick has done a better job than I could possibly explaining the situation.

From a Paulick Report in May, "...The racing industry has been trying to get some type of legislative relief since 1991, when riverboat casinos were first approved. It's been stymied repeatedly, and the damage done to the breeding and racing industry is immense. Revenue to the tracks and purses for horse owners has cratered. Horsemen are getting out of the business or moving their stables and breeding stock to neighboring states, all of which offer more substantial purses. Illinois racing has become a shell of its former self.

Slots might have been the answer 10 or 20 years ago, when the competition came from 10 casinos scattered throughout Illinois, and several others were poised just across the Indiana state line adjacent to Chicago's South Side. One of those gambling parlors, the Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, is only 11 miles from Arlington Park in Chicago's northwest suburbs. Illinois casinos offer a full range of table games – blackjack, roulette, craps et al – to go with slot machines.

More recently, Illinois legislators moved to add electronic games to virtually every tavern and bar in the state. The 2009 law – approved by jailed former Gov. Rod Blagojevich – took several years to clear legal hurdles, but it is now in full effect, with tens of thousands of devices at bars, truck stops and fraternal organizations.

Slot machines are no longer unique (May 29, 2017)."

There is still hope regarding bill SB7, but Illinois is such a messed up state, I'm not sure if I'm prepared to have any faith or hope that Arlington can be saved,  I love that track and its a horrible shame what has become of the Illinois racing scene. 

Anyway, Illinois racing is not dead yet, at least for another day.  Turk favorite, Kasaqui (Arg)  looks to be in fine form winning the Wise Dan G2 at CD on June 17.                        

He has a tendency to take Place (10 in 26 starts) but I'm really impressed by this 7 YO.  

Perhaps a contrarian view, I like Manitoulin here.  Comes in off career best 97 Beyer  in a 1 1/8 Turf carrying 122 (He'll be 10 pounds lighter than Kasaqui at 114 today).  Second time out as a gelding (poor fella).  

Sir Dudley Digges is a very classy Ramsey owned Gio Ponti Ontario bred trained by Michael Maker with Leparoux up.  These two combine for 23% wins in past year on 196 mounts.  Winner in N3x $80K OC last time out and will be closer to the pace than Kasaqui at the top of the stretch.  

In the one spot is Taghleeb, another Maker conditioned horse, a 6 YO Hard Spun bred by Shadwell. 

Oak Brook is an up down 5 YO gelded Giant's causeway son that has been claimed repeatedly and is currently in Brian Williamson's barn (8% graded stakes, 10% turf wins, 10% routes). 9 Win-Place results in 19 lifetime races.  Took the Black Tie Affair at Arlington at 16-1 last month on yielding turf. Will be on the pace.  

Ghost Hunter is live and long.  6 Win-Place finishes in 9 turf starts.  Trainer Jamie Ness stepping up big time in Class and Competition.  Has had sucess over the fake dirt, winning G3 Hashin a 1 Mile here at AP in May.  Won last start, 1 1/8 over firm turf at Delaware Park in mid June.  

Applicator I have rated lower than I expect he will be on the tote board at post time.  I look at running lines:  Weakened Late a 1 1/4 in G1 Manhattan, No Factor, No Factor, tired, Walked Off, Weakened, faltered.  I may be too harsh here.  Watch the Manhattan video.  I don't see the horse that earned those running lines.  



Applicator did not belong in the class for breeder/trainer Mikhail Yanakov but really ran well until being eased at 1/16 pole.  Class drop, distance drop.  I'll be watching him on the tote board.  

I'm not sure yet what I'll be doing in the Arlington Handicap.  Whatever you do, do your own handicapping and bet responsibly.  

Turk out!

References

Paulick, Ray.  May 29, 2017.  "View from the 1/8th pole:  Time is Running Out on Illinois Racing." Retrieved from https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-eighth-pole-time-running-illinois-racing/

The Nomination Is In: The Commonwealth Turf at Churchill Downs

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.  I'd like to begin by wishing the many horse players I know who served in our Military a Happy Veteran's Day. I myself am I veteran of the first Gulf War and a proud former submariner.

My nickname, The Turk, was a common nickname given to the best handicapper in a military man's unit.  Those nicknames stuck with the person, and I have read several obituaries over time of former "Turk's" who served our country proudly and just enjoyed the peace and quiet of the track the rest of their days.  This has been a tumultuous week in our Country, and this Blog is not being political, just expressing the sincere hope that average American's can embrace the differences of opinion and come together to grow jobs and be respectful of the personal choices we all make.

Today's blog is written for The Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner.  Today's target is a very nice 11 horse, 3 YO turf Grade 3, the Commonwealth Turf, at Churchill Downs.  I avoid 3 YO Turf racing like the plague until late in the year as it allows some historical perspective to develop on the past performances.  You typically get a funny mixture of direct to turf runners, modestly bred animals, triple crown trail rejects coming off the dirt, and future turf stars.  Today is no different and the field is both challenging and lacks  and heavy duty chalk which should make for an exciting race with money to be made.

Let's get after it!






Check the track conditions always when preparing your handicaps.  You can find Churchill Down's conditions here.  The weather does not appear to be an issue, with only a 10% chance of rain today and tomorrow.  Expect the turf to be firm.

Let's start with the base handicap and then develop some bet strategies off of that.  My two readers can tell you that sometimes my base handicap is pretty straightforward and I can bet directly from it, or I'll deviate.  With 11 horses, I have them in stratified layers of class and ability, and the bet construction has to take some educated risks and place a few high prices more forward or we might as well bet the tote board order.  33% of chalks win, a metric that has been very consistent for decades.  With big fields, you can get carried away with covering multiple horses Win, Place Show and the bets can get very expensive.  Avoid that trap and only bet what you are willing to lose.  This is not batting average:  Don't worry so much about picking winners that you are afraid to take a chance on putting a 15-1 in the Place Spot.  Public handicapping like this was very hard for me for a long time because, lets face it, no one likes to look stupid.  With that fear I found the handicaps I blogged lagged severely in ROI that the ones I didn't blog.  It was a horrifying prospect.  I had to get past the idea I was going to get a part of the prize, even a minor part, on every bet, and instead focus my handicap on identifying who should finish, and in what order, if the race was raced on paper, and the bet construction takes that base handicap and makes the best educated guesses possible to maximize the risk-reward relationship.  I'm OK with winning 3 out of 10 if those three cover the seven losses and makes me 15% on my money.  That is not always what unfolds but it's what I am always aiming for. Have something you aim for, your betting capital should be treated with deep respect.

Ok Turk, stop rambling and get on with it.  Ok ok...


I have Canadian bred (A shout out to my neighbors to the North courtesy of the Hip) Sir Dudley Digges in my win spot, light-ish chalk I may add.  5 pf 6 in the money on turf, he should handle the firm turf OK and he should like the distance.  He's with a serious group of connections, with The Ramsey's as owners, Trainer Michael Maker and J. Leparoux, up.  He's got class, he's got experience, he's been training over Churchill turf since late September.  I'm covering him in Win and Place on most of my tickets.

Tizarunner is a big stretch for me, both in the base handicap and the bet.  The A--- means he's really a B, but I see a horse who last time out set a 90 Beyer over a firm 1 1/8 miles at KEE winning with a nice late turn of foot. 4 of 5 in the money, a high price at the March 2015 OBS sale of $325,000, classy Tizway son may just be a late bloomer.  Trainer Casse is 17% winner over the turf and I think I'm going to like his price at >6-1 for the Place and Show spots.

Bondurant  is a War Front making just his sixth start, all over grass.  He's never gone past 1 mile and he's taking a big step up in conditions.  I may have him too high and will cover Show/Exotic only.

One Mean Man carries the race high weight of 123 pounds and I may have this modestly bred Mizzen Mast son too low.  He had an OK, somewhat slow summer over grass, with some success at Arlington and CD.  Making Dirt/Turf swap, something Trainer Flint wins 12% of the time.  5 wins in 12 turf starts, 9 of 123 in the money over turf, no wins at the distance and 1 in in two CD starts.  Win isn't unreasonable, Place and Show very possible.

Surgical Strike had moderate success this summer after coming off some nice Spring runs at Turfway and Arlington.  Similar Beyer as many of the runners here, 80-84 with one 90+.  Place/Show/Exotic possible.

Scholar Athlete is a son of a Turk favorite, Einstein (Brz).  This video, the Arlington Million from 2009, has no relevance other than to watch Sir Dudley Digges sire, Gio Ponti sweep to victory over, among others, Einstein.  Scholar Athlete is another Ontario bred, trained by Graham Motion who takes the blinkers off, an angle  he's won 22% on 9 tries. This horse gives way late fairly regulatory.  No better than Place or Exotic, but he has talent.

Finally from the group of horses that will make up my bet selection, Black Out (Fr).  A third Casse entry.  4 wins in 9 turf starts and a field best 92 Beyer.  Ran an exceptional N1X $77K ALW at Belmont over good turf at 1 mile in mid October, his second North America start.  Something makes me wonder that I should have flip flopped Tizarunner and Black Out (Fr) as i get the feeling he's live and Casse is looking for an under the radar score.  I'll be covering in Win down.

I tossed the 1,9,11 and 4 at my own peril.

So what do we have?  We have a pretty level playing field without much separating these runners. Class is my tie breaker: Sir Dudley Digges, Bondurant, Tizarunner, and Scholar Athlete bring the class and I'll hang my hat on them.

a $1 Trifecta Bet costing $46 might look like this:

2-3 OVER 2-3-5-7-8-10 OVER 3-5-6-7-8-10

That may be too pricey and you may not like the risk-reward.  I don't blame you and you can try something with a bit more risk but more reward.

A $2 Exacta for $36 may look like this:

2-10-3 OVER 2-10-3-8-7-5-6

and for $18

2-3-10 over 2-3-10-7-8

These are fun races to bet and I would expect the payouts will be handsome.  Enjoy!

Turk Out.