Post Race Analysis for Race Day July 1, 2009; The Dominion Day Handicap G III at WO

The one that got away!

When you take a strong stand on one horse and you key your handicap with that horse finishing in a particular spot, its inevitable that the horse will occasionally let you down. Sometimes its a bad trip. Sometimes he just didn't feel like running. I'm trying to follow my own advice and let it go. It's not easy when you pick horse 2, 3 and 4 in exact order and your Win horse falters to fifth. Spilled milk, boo-hoo. The Turk will have none of that. That fine looking horse in the Cindy Pierson Dulay photo is Marchfield, the winner of The Dominion Day Handicap as he crosses the line winning the Autumn GII at WO last year.

Race 8 WO: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III; 1 1/4 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and up.



A couple of things I take from this: I was correct in taking a strong stand against Vacation. I'm not sure why the track handicapper set his Morning Line so high and I'm not sure why the bettors picked him over the fine local talent. His post time odds were ridiculous and made no sense.

Ice Bear was poised and in a good spot to fire to the front but just didn't go for Ms. Sutherland.

Sometimes you can have a pretty good handicap and still walk away empty handed. In order to have cashed a Super I would have had to included Cool Gator in my box. That wasn't going to happen. I should have and could have hit the Trifecta, but that would have required a four horse box and those are the kind of pricy bets I try to avoid, especially when the four I would have boxed were so well representing the top of the tote board. Let it go.

The Appleton Turk, bless her heart, has been infected with the horse betting bug. She took a strong stand with Michael's Bad Boy. She lost sure, but the horse was the bettor's 4th choice and her $10 win bet would have returned $70. She's given up lottery tickets in search of horse racing glory. For those about to rock, we salute you!

The Turk is already at work on two races at Monmouth for the 4th of July. I'm leaning towards Smooth Air in the Salvator Mile and I have no stong opinion yet, but Bancock at attractive odds might be my choice for the United Nations on the turf to win.

There is some great horse talk to be found at the the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page. Check out Rob at Amateur Capper and Geno at Equispace and you'll find two heavy hitters in the horse blogging world.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: July 1, 2009: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III at Woodbine

The Cindy Pierson Dulay photo to the left is Ice Bear with the lovely Chantal Sutherland up. Ice Bear is The Turk's chalk in Wednesday's Dominion Day Handicap at Woodbine. To the uninformed, July 1st is a holiday in Canada, as they celebrate their independence from England (and announce their dependence on Tim Horton's coffee).

The installed morning line favorite is Vacation. The 4 YO Dynaformer colt is a good runner, coming off a Grade III win at 1 Mile at Arlington in late May and has been training very sharply at Belmont since. I don't think this colt will go to the starting post as the favorite, but we'll see.

Race 8 WO Post Time 4:29 ET: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III; 1 1/4 on Fake Dirt for 3 YO and Up.



I'm leaning towards regular Woodbine runners in this race. Ice Bear is 6 of 11 in the money at Woodbine and is a Grade III winner. Trainer Benson's and Ms. Sutherland have combined to win 64% of their 11 races together.

I like Marchfield to Place. He's placed behind Ice Bear twice before and beat him once. He has a PP filled with deep closing and he's 9 of 10 races in the money at Woodbine and regular rider Husbands up.

For now I'm inserting Approval Rating in the Show position. Trainer Jordan wins 43% of his races on fake dirt and when combined with Jock Mcaleney they win 45% of the time, based on a staggering 93 races together and the 5 YO son of Lemon Drop Kid is 6 of 6 in the money at Woodbine.

Where does Vacation fit in? Short answer is I dunno yet. I'm not a fan of boxing unnecessarily, but Vacation could finish anywhere on the board. I don't like his 3 wins in 19 starts or the fact it's his first WO start, but I like J. Velazquez up, I like the string of 90+ BSF he is posting and I think he hasn't run his best race yet.

Equitable is making his second start off a long layoff. I like the A.P. Indy colt who put up a 5f in :59 2/5ths a week ago. He's most likely my 5th and last horse I'll insert into any of my Tri's. Super's are being taken for this race as well.

I don't generally handicap this far in advance so I will update as we get closer.

There is some great writing going on at the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. Check out the new homepage and you'll find some of the best voices from the new and old media talking up the horse game from every different angle. The Foolish Pleasure should be a must read for all fans of the game.

Have fun. Turk out!