Post Race Analysis: The Kentucky Derby

California Chrome: Andy Lyons/Getty Images (Thanks for Use)

I am first and foremost a fan of horse racing.  I am a Preacher in the Church of Horse Racing with a congregation shrinking faster the Donald Sterling Fan Club.  I give sermons on the good word of racing and I hope to turn one person a year into a real fan.  I'm never disappointed when my love of racing and my race track romances intersect with my handicapping and yesterday's California Chrome Kentucky Derby win was an intersection with an exclamation point.  

My Super High Five bet fizzled.  I had zero conviction in that bet and I ended up betting it straight (the stars would have to align) as I felt like straight had about as much a chance as the $200.00 matrix I had assembled.

I also got lucky with my betting.  I plunked down $10 Exacta Bets for California Chrome on top and the 5 biggest long shots 9-2-17-15 and 8 underneath.  $1,700 win on a $50 wild guess.  That's not handicapping, that's bet strategy and an understanding that long shots like Commanding Curve more often than not finish second.  I had conviction to single California Chrome in my bets. It wasn't a wise guy selection and people expect experienced handicappers to take positions on horses other than chalk.  Luckily, ye Ol' Turk doesn't give a flying f**k what anyone thinks of his picks.

By the way, handicappers better than I have been wondering about Commanding Curve all week. Steve and the Wireplayers crew are pretty savvy fellas.  I didn't see it at all. I posted the Louisiana Derby video below.  He made a nice run to Show and you could make the case he'd take Place or win by 1 1/4 Miles.




Kentucky Derby Grade 1




Louisiana Derby Grade 1



I hope you had fun and made some money yesterday!  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Derby Super Hi-5

The Gods must be against me;  I've been unable to print from DRF's Formulator for the past few days and of all days, Google changed the way I import spreadsheets into my blog.  I have taken a deep breath and refocused on the fact that this is a confounding group of horses running today.

Welcome friends to the biggest race day of the year for casual and non fans, while as a horse player, Kentucky Derby Day is in my top five along with Breeders' Cup Saturday, Travers Day, Arlington Millons Day and Clarke Handicap Day.

The weather will not be an issue at all.  Expect the track to be fast and stop trying to make a case for a good wet surface Tomlinson Number.

I've got a base handicap that singles California Chrome.  For most wise guys, picking the chalk is anathema, and I'm good with that:  I like to study the form too and find good prices that can win, but I think that California Chrome has a better than 40% chance of winning and that's good enough for me.  I'm on the hunt for a Super High 5 at the lowest possible investment, and singling the California bred makes the investment less lucrative but also less expensive.  I was not bullish on Medal Count until I took a second and third look.  I've liked Intense Holiday and I am still a bit in shock over Hoppertunity's scratch.

The Wireplayers Derby Dozen Gang had pretty mixed views in the final poll.  Pay attention to this list as it was prepared by horseplayers far better than I.  For people new to the sport, there is no finer website for the beginner than Hello Race Fans!  You'll find everything you need there to get started.





I'll most likely be playing with my matrix all day but below is my current thinking.  The group listed as C+/C is where heart break will most likely come.




Anyways, handicapping is about taking a position.  Betting is about having conviction in your handicap.  Have fun and pick away and ignore the experts and idiot bloggers alike.

Turk Out!

The Turk's Derby Dozen Final Rankings, Prep Race Video Review and Post Draw

Stupid Blogger!

We've been watching these Three Year Old's here at Turk Central all winter and I think I have a feel for the best of the bunch.  So many good runners didn't make it this far and this group of 20 entrants seems a bit weak after the top 12. None of that really matters when the gate goes open, but this this idiot handicapping blogger will be on the hunt for the Super High Five as a bettor, and if I can win that, I'm always happy if a good story line wins the race.

I've got California Chrome on top of my list and I'm pretty darn sure he'll be post time chalk.  Most likely I'll single him and then build my exotic bets out from there.  
After the video I collected is the Post Positions and Morning Lines.  It looks like Vinceremos at 30-1 (10th on my list) represents a chance to sneak a bit of value into my bets.

I'll be reviewing workouts this week and start to form a handicap by tomorrow night.

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!







Santa Anita Derby




Arkansas Derby





Louisiana Derby




Florida Derby



Sunland Derby



Bluegrass Stakes



Wood Memorial