The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Stakes G1 at Saratoga

Seeking the Soul: Coady Photography

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan and the Thorofan Handicappers Corner for allowing me the opportunity to share my thoughts with you today reading the $750 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.

This has been a race I've gravitated to over the years as some of my favorites: Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road, Harve de Grace and Gun Runner have all won this since 2007.  Perhaps none of these runners are of that quality, but we at least certainly have quantity today with 14 in the starting gate.  This is going to be an excellent betting race.  There are no heavy chalks, no locks for Win-Place, I see this as a pretty wide open race and to me that's opportunity. I've got a tepid chalk on my board as Seeking the Soul, with my fair line odds 5-1 with his morning line 4.5-1.

You'll find Scratches and Changes here.  You'll find the weather here, and by the looks of it we should have a dry, fast dirt track.

Let's get after it!




It's been some time since I had a more tepid chalk than I have today.  I've put Seeking the Soul on top:4 Straight 100+ Beyers, 5 of 6in the money at the distance, 13 of 17 in the money on Fast Dirt, sharp work over the dirt and a Saratoga win.  Castellano up a week after Catholic Boy victory ride in the Travers for Dallas Stewart.

Pegasus World Cup G1: 1 1/8 Miles  Fast Dirt; GP; January 2018



Sunny Ridge comes in after setting career best Beyer of 102 in the State Dinner 98K at Belmont over fast dirt at 1 1/16 miles.



Trainer Servis and I. Ortiz are 29% at Saratoga in 55 starts and 33% over past year at all tracks in 181 starts.  One win in six starts at the distance but 6 wins in 13 starts over fast dirt.

Gunnevera is the Morning Line favorite and I would expect will enter the gate as post time favorite.  In his last ten races he's one three times:  an OC 62K 3 weeks ago (an 85 Beyer), a 107K Stakes one year ago and The Fountain of Youth G2 in March of 2017.  The link between all these wins are they were all at Gulfstream Park.  Woof!  He's got a huge late Timeform Pace of 131.  Here he was in good form at the Travers in 2017 taking a big, wide, dirty run at West Coast, but he doesn't reach him until 1 1/4 miles and this is 1/8 less.



Watching that Travers Stakes, I'll pause to remember Irap as well.  An absolutely beautiful colt who left us too soon.

Irap: WSVX FM

The nearly $3.0 Million dollar earning Gunnevera will be coming late, but will he have enough tactical speed early on to be well positioned.  That's something the handicapper must consider.  I'm betting against him to win and I'm not even sure I'll cover him to Place (and yes, that should all but assure he does win!)

I like two higher prices to contend for Place: Leofric and Zanotti.    I hate the draw for both of them and possibly it dooms them, but I'm thinking that this race might be won by a horse that's 5-1 or worse and the Place horse could be 15-1 or worse, so yes, its a bit of gut and gamble (we are gambling after all).

Leofric, a smallish grey/roan gelded son of Candy ride (Arg) is trained by Brad Cox.


West Virginia Governor G3; 1 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt MNR.



If it gets sloppy he has a 447 Tomlinson for Wet Dirt.

Razorback Handicap G3:  1 1/16 Miles Muddy/sealed




Again, he's not as talented as many of the horses her, but he ships well, wins on different tracks and he's gutty.  Place in an Exacta at 20-1 or worse is worth a wager to me.

Zanotti as an 8/5 favorite finished Place in the Monmouth Cup G3 last time out.  While a gutty stretch run he couldn't seal the effort and didn't look good at the distance.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance but 4 Places so 5 for 5 in the money at 1 1/8 Miles.  5 Place finishes in 6 starts in 2018.




While I have six runners listed as no higher than Exotic, I'll most likely play a few in the Place spot of the Exacta.

In that mix is both Tapwrit and Discreet Lover, running recently in the sloppy and sealed Whitney G1  at 1 1/8 miles. Discreet Lover has  big closing run speed while Tapwrit hasn't won since his Belmont win last year.  I'm more inclined to think that Discreet Lover has a better chance of hitting the board than Tapwrit.



Two Calumet Farms breds are in my next grouping, Patch and Hence.  Patch and Kurilov (Chi) squared off at 1 1/8 miles over fast dirt at Saratoga three weeks ago in the Alydar 97K. 





Hence enters 4 weeks after winning as a heavy chalk in a 200K Stakes at Albuquerque Downs.  Best known for his impressive Sunland Derby win in his 3 YO campaign that made him a trendy Kentucky Derby pick (and unimpressive 18 lengths behind Always Dreaming).



I like Yosida (Jpn) quite a bit but on Turf and not at 5-1 Morning Line.  Yes, I trust and respect Bill Mott so I will be watching the tote and if his price gets a but larger I'll consider him but I like others much more.

 I tossed Rally Cry (Mike Smith up) as I think he'll have to work too hard just to overcome his post draw.  I tossed Imperative as I  think the gelding deserves a retirement home, even though he's still shows flashes.  I tossed Term of Art, although more talented than some of these runners, winless at the distance in 3 starts, 1 win in last ten starts.  I respect Cox as a conditioner but its a 14 horse field and you can't cover everyone.

So what to do with all this?

I'll be looking at Exacta and Win Bets.  I'm thinking of no more than $16 Wagered and I view this as low risk high reward.  My early thoughts are:

$1 Exacta:  10-8-12 OVER 10-8-12...11-13-7  $15

That's Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge Over Seeking the Soul/Discreet Lover/Sunny Ridge and Leofric/Zanotti/Kurilov (Chi)

That might not be the exact bet but you get the idea.  This is the sort of race you can Tote Board Handicap.  Pair a few favored horses with some longer prices and have some fun with it.


Thanks for reading, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Woodward Day Late Pick 3

Paynter last year (insert sad emoticon)

 Welcome friends the the Labor Day Weekend edition of The Turk and the Little Turk.  Traditionally I like to be at the Spa on Woodward Day but it just didn't work out this year.  My family and I did get to spend a very lovely and low key day at the track on Thursday where Little Turk took home the Turk Clan handicapping challenge, parlaying consistent win and show bets into positive ROI.  It makes this big, bald idiot handicapper proud to know I have raised the next generation of horse players, that I've done my part to keep horse racing alive and well. 

Little Turk is growing up in an era where racing is just out of sight of most kids who aren't growing up in a racing town or the bluegrass. 

When I was his age, pre internet, I looked forward to my Sports Illustrated Magazine subscription every week, and during the Triple Crown season and during the summer there was a horse racing article every week. 



 

Paynter Now!

The children of this generation are barely exposed to the beauty of the race track.  Race tracks to me are like safe harbors, calm water where you get out of the daily rat race, forget the cell phone, forget the worries, and just relax.  I've exposed Little Turk enough to the sport where he's developed a love for it, and while it rates below Soccer, Football and Hockey, at least its above bowling and curling in the landscape of entertainment options for him.

Ahh Paynter.  I worried so about this proud and beautiful Haskell winner, son of Awesome Again  with Tizamazing as a Dam, as he recovered from serious medical problems, and I watched in awe at how he decimated an Allowance Field at Hollywood Park early this year in his comeback.  I love stories like this and its what makes me stay a horseplayer, the horsefan in me.  Thanks by the way for Casey Phillips for the use of that lovely photo of Paynter.  The one of Paynter being cared for I believe was Justin Zayat, but whoever took it, thanks as well.

I am a horseplayer first and foremost when it comes to my money.  I have no problem whatsoever with how anybody bets, and we all know people who bet sentimental favorites.  The Turk doesn't pretend to be anything other than I handicapper who brings a consistent approach to his handicaps and bets, winning more than losing, but I am not the type of handicapper, the type I avoid and don't particularly enjoy spending time around, who believe they alone understand the Rosetta stone of racing. If you want to bet Paynter because you are inspired by him, go right ahead!  The horse racing fan is thrilled to see him at the Spa today, I give Baffert credit for shipping him here when there were races at Del Mar that he could have done well with too. He will draw betting action no doubt, which will leave me my Pick Three single, Successful Dan, at a better price.  horseplayer and horsefan can coexist-  I'm assembling a pretty low risk Pick 3 and if Paynter wins, I'll be happy too. 

Let's get after this!



I like the field in the Bernard Baruch quite a bit: Turallure, down lately, Tetradrachm, Za Approval and Silver Max are all fine quality, and So Long George, a shipper from Woodbine, must be respected too. 

I like those five in some combination for a Superfecta;  The base handicap has Silver Max on top and I like the :58 3/5ths bullet he dropped at SAR on the 18th of August and I think he'll be OK even if the turf isn't firm.

It's a good time to bring that up.  Track Conditions are hard to say for later.  Keep your eye on those and the scratches and changes.

Going in his second off a layoff is Tetradrachm, a horse quite frankly I had never heard of before (and i can't say that too often in the Stakes Races).  The 4 YO gelding won at 1 1/16 on firm SAR turf this meet and Bill Mott and Johnny V are clipping away at 27% together.

I'm a Clement fan and Za Approval is a classic late turn of foot turf runner.  6 wins in 12 turf tries, 9 of 12 in the money on turf, 2 wins in 3 starts at the distance and a SAR victory in his resume. 

Turallure has gone a VERY long time between wins but lost by a head over turf listed as good at SAR this meet and can't discount him for Show or Exotic.   I may have So Long George too low but I typically don't back Woodbine shippers into SAR to win so I won't cover in the P3 to my peril.  His Nijinsky Grade 2 win was really well done and can't be discounted from hitting the board as high as Place. 

The Grade 1 Forego at first blush seems a Zayat Stable slam dunk, and are they plotting a Forego-Woodward sweep?  D. Wayne Lukas revival continues to go well as Fast Bullet comes to his barn, along with all the promise that 4 wins in 5 starts brings for a lightly raced 5 YO.  His game for this 7 furlong affair seems pretty simple: go fast and hold on.  He's won on an off track and he may get loose on the lead and fly across sealed dirt.  Fast Bullet is Coupled with Justin Phillip, no slouch either and the winner of 4 starts on off tracks. 

I like either Lea or Sage Valley to throw the upset.  Lea is going on dirt for only the second time but does have a win on slop. Al Stall picks his marks well and B. Hernandez is up and the two win 26% of the time together. There is no Wise Dan in this race to thwart the 4 YO First Samuri runner.  Sage Valley has been training very well for Rudy Rodriguez and this winner of the James Marvin looks very capable.  I like this as a betting race very much and we'll be playing supers with the base handicap.  Is Jackson Bend really six?  I'm feeling old!  Not a bad $3,000 Hear No Evil son. 

In the main event the scratch of Fort Larned takes some of the sizzle out of the betting but we'll manage with what's left.   Put your hand up in the air if you've bet Flat Out away from BEL and got your teeth kicked in?  2 wins on off tracks and two sizzling works for Bill Mott's runner and recent Suburban G2 winner but zero of three wins at SAR.  Ron the Greek, another Mott I've consistently screwed up since the Lecompte (is Ron the Greek really six years old?  Now I do feel old!) doesn't seem to be at his best right now.  I'll most likely flip flop him and Paynter depending on the track conditions, as I know Ron the Greek doesn't mind slop but I don't know about mighty Paynter.

Successful Dan does seem to be in good form but he'd be going on the off track for the first time in his career.  Paynter would be for the second time since the slop of the Derby Trials at CD last year.

I've only got one betting option right now, an $18 dollar 3 by 3 by 1, with my single being Sucessful Dan.  I doubt this wins quite frankly and sometimes the process of typing out my handicap sways me.  I'm more likely to single Silver Max, go three deep with the coupled entry in the Forego, and maybe 4 deep in the Woodward, pushing the bet out to $24. 

I'll be watching the weather and track conditions before I have to make my P3 bet at around 4:30 ET.  have fun with it friends, we shift towards Belmont and Santa Anita next as we start to gear up for my favorite betting weekend of the year, Breeders' Cup. 

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: September 3, 2011; The All Graded Stakes P3 at Saratoga

Trainer Larry Jones returns to Sartaoga with Havre de Grace, a four year old Saint Liam filly who lost by a neck to her rival Blind Luck in a thrilling Alabama in 2010.

Early in the Saratoga season there was talk of a Personal Ensign showdown between Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. That didn't materialize and then the Personal Ensign didn't materialize after Hurricane Irene had other ideas for last Sunday's day at the track. Last Sunday's loss is our gain as we have three back to back Grade I races to thrill us on the last weekend of Saratoga racing.

When you live in a cold weather locale like The Turk does you savor the seasons, all four of them. Winter to me is Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, Spring is Oaklawn and Kentucky Racing, Summer is Arlington and Saratoga, and then Fall is Woodbine, Belmont, and Breeders' Cup . That's how I view the year and it's bitter sweet for me to realize the summer has slipped by.

Friends and family of mine don't really get horse racing. Some of them try, some of them enjoy going to the track, but they aren't as fully wired in as I am. I write this blog to maintain a connection with my love of racing. No matter how much my job drains the energy from me, I have my family and I have this blog that has brought me many friends around the country who all share the same passions as the Turk clan.

I think I digressed: I'm a big fan of Larry Jones, the man. One of my first blog entries in 2008 was when he announced he was leaving the main stage of racing. I love having him back. I was reading some more talented bloggers recently and a point was made that Trainers need to feel a responsibility towards marketing the sport and that trainers need to be more visible and outspoken ambassadors of the sport. Men like Larry Jones are so charismatic, so genuine, you can't help but root for them in life and at the track. While I love the tradition of the sport, their is such a lack of effort to market the horsepeople that drive the sport.

The Turk has been very active in horse racing charities and he donates a portion of his winnings to rescues. I would never suggest that anyone part with their money, but please think about contributing to the runners who mostly weren't successful at the track and have many years of life ahead and so few people willing to care for them. Anything you can donate helps. There are so many wonderful people doing this thankless work, I hesitate to recommend any particular rescue because I'll miss someone just as deserving a shout out. The Turk will help put any casual fans in touch with the right people and all he asks is to think about these entertainers and their long term care is all of our concerns.

Let's get after it!

Race 8-9-10 Saratoga



Check the weather and scratches and changes. The Live Tote is absolutely critical; Forget the morning lines, build your own fair odds table (or letter grades) and then use the Tote Board to let the bettors tell you where they place a horse within the field. Know the odds and know what the risk/reward of your bet is.

I've built base handicaps for each race. My goal pre race is to "reorder" the horses into layers. Those layers are Win-Place-Show-Exotic and Tosses or Also Rans. I don't really try to identify the winner but instead identify who I think could win. Because it's a cop out to not pick a winner, I always do, but I'm far more interested in nailing the final order on an exotic ticket with a bit of boxing and matrix building.

I've put up some key video on each race. My analysis is there are some vulnerable chalk here. Seperate horse fan from bettor within your mind; Ask the Moon freaked the Ruffian Handicap, but do you love her at 2-1? Do you still love Havre de Grace at 8-5? I'm not answering those questions, I'm just suggesting that I will bet chalk when it makes sense as a bettor, but I won't bet chalk because I'm a fan. I'll save my bet and buy a picture for my wall. Chalk gets a bum rap too; In Layer handicapping, Chalks can't be ignored, but it helps if they finish lower than expected and you have them in the next layer below win. Good stuff friends!


2011 Ruffian Handicap


2011 Ogden Phipps Handicap



2011 Teddy Drone $103K



2011 James Marvin



2011 Whitney Invitational Handicap



2011 Birdstone Stakes



I'm going to let my base handicap speak for itself and i'll break down more of the thought process in the post race analysis. I was suppose to go today to the Woodward, a race I haven't missed in years. The Ol' Turk is tired, mentally and physically. The f**king hurricane caused me alot of work headaches and i'm just drained. I've got my eye on a PID road trip for their big races next weekend and then the Woodbine Mile is on my agenda later this month. We are all set in our plans for the Breeders' Cup too so I will just regroup and I'll be back at the Woodward next year.



Have Fun, Turk Out! Thank you Saratoga in the 25th year of my love affair with you.