The Turk Blog, established in September 2008, has a narrow purpose: We analyze Turf Horse Races and Form Exacta Bets. Little Turk has retired from the blog and is now a Chiropractor.
Starting in the chute, 2.2 Furlongs after the turn to the line
Welcome Friends To the Turk Blog, where I focus on turf racing and exacta betting. It's been some time since I've handicapped Woodbine. No particular reason for avoiding this track, it's actually not that far from my house (about 45 miles and one international bridge crossing away) and The Turk has enjoyed many an afternoon in the facility, with Woodbine Mile Day on my list of annual fun.
It's a big track, a 1 mile dirt oval and an absolutely enormous turf route. Today is Connaught Cup G2 day, which is Race 7, but I'm going to look at the race just before it for the blog, the G2 Canadian Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 YO and Up.
It's a small field with a HUGE morning line favorite. I like to be contrarian in my betting but not in my handicapping. Gimme a Nother (SAf), first time lasix, multiple G1 winner in South Africa, a place in G2 Hillsborough in Tampa, place in G3 Modesty at Churchill, well back of She Feels Pretty over yielding turf at SAR in the G1 New York. 45.5%, 6-5 Morning Line? That has to be in metric or something. A very good mare but will she win this G2 5 out of 10 times?
Let's get after it!
The Canadian Stakes G2: 1 1/8 Miles (1 turn) on Turf.
Let's take a look at that New York G1 race and see how she moves.
6 June 2025 SAR: The New York G1; 1 3/16ths on Yielding Turf
8 March 2025 TAM: The Hillsborough G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf
What a difference in those two races. She moved really well in a field that will be more like today's field than one with She Feels Pretty in it. Carrying top weight at 124.
28 June 2025 WO: The Nassau G2; 1 Mile on good Turf.
By all looks, Gimme Me Nother (SAf) should win this race, but let's think contrarian and make a low risk, high reward bet:
4-3 Over 2-3-4, a $2 Exacta for $8. I will place a $2 Rolling Double on 4 in Race 6 and 3-8 Race 7.
Not a lot of deep thought here, just looking to knock off that huge favorite.
Welcome Friends to The Turk blog. I've been a handicapper since 1986 and a Horse Racing Blogger since 2008 with a general specialization of older horses running across a route of grass with exacta bet constructions. I've been flexing my turf sprint chops over the last few weeks for a change of pace as I like to make sure I don't ignore my handicapping on these sort of races. I've been handicapping for a long time, and my approach to how I analyze a race has been refined over a long period of time. My influences are pretty standard for handicappers of my generation: Tom Ainslie, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz. My own derivative method is to break down these races for Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Form and Work, Jockey and Jockey/Trainer stats. I video handicap when I have time and I feel like I need more context. I block and I tackle. What I don't do is handicap looking at the Morning Line, nor do I read articles about the races or the runners before I handicap. I try to leave other's bias out of my analysis and only deal with my own inherent biases.
Woodbine is the closest major track to The Turk's home base of Western New York. I had the pleasure of going to the Fort Erie Race Track last week, the first time since COVID ended. I learned to play sprints by playing Fort Erie ad nauseum when I was younger. It's a wonderful track with an uncertain future.
Today's 7f, 1 turn Connaught Cup Stakes G2 at Woodbine has a nice 10 horse field with a 9 YO favorite, Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere, to me sets up a great chance to bet against the old veteran son of The Factor.
Let's get after it!
Connaught Cup G2: WO 7f on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up
Years ago when I stopped handicapping with any foreknowledge of the Morning Lines, I learned that I was able to spot under and overlays easier. That said, I had to develop my ability to handicap and set my own fair lines. In today's race War Bomber (Ire) jumped off the page to me as an overlay. Let's take a look at his last time out on the Canada Day holiday, the 1 1/8 mile Dominion Day G3 on fake dirt.
Cutting back will only help, as the blistering 1:11 3/4 mile pace he's up for, just not much beyond that. Good early speed, should be forwardly placed. 20-1 Morning Line, 3 wins in five WO starts, 3 wins in 7 turf starts, winless in two 2023 starts. I like for a win bet at the right price. Jock Civaci jumps to Lucky Score, so he's most likely skeptical too!
Lucky Score and Dream for Tomorrow will be respected by the bettors. Lucky Score is moving up a furlong in distance (unraced previously a 7f) but is 4 of 6 Win/Place at WO and over turf and hit triple digit Beyer last time out, also on Canada Day, the Grade 2 Highlander, 6f over grass.
That was a hell of a ride by Civaci to win at the wire at $14.30. Dreams for Tomorrow has 25% winner Patrick Husband, up, for McGaughey who ships in. The 6 YO is cutting back 1f. Should be tactical and within a few lengths of the lead at top of stretch and possesses excellent closing speed from there.
Bound for Nowhere is my kind of horse. The 9 YO won a G2 last year here at Woodbine but is off to a slow start in 2023. Adding distance from past two race 5.5f affairs. Dangerous, but I'm skeptical.
It's a deep race. Churchtown cuts back 1f and is starting off an 80 day layoff, but training sharply at WO since mid June. Attfield wins 20% of stake races but has only had 2 turf sprints over a rolling year, of which he has yet to win. 5 of 6 Win/Place over Turf, 2 of 2 Win/Place at WO.
My last serious consideration is Dream Shake, only second turf start, a surface he is a maiden on. Ran and won a 7f fake dirt OC50K on 2 July. Fascinating, but I like to see some success first.
So what am I doing with all this? A win bet for War Bomber (Ire) as long as I'm >8-1. My exacta will be Lucky Score wheeled with War Bomber,Dreams of Tomorrow, Churchtown and Dream Shake. I'm ignoring Bound for Nowhere at my own peril, I just don't like anywhere near 8-5
The weather up in the Turk's neck of the woods has been rainy, with rain and a bit more rain. We aren't complaining because we haven't had to suffer through the devastation of tornado's like we have seen in the Midwest, but we have had to sacrifice much of The Little Turk's May soccer schedule and the early season turf racing at Woodbine.
Turf racing in the north is a cherished commodity, a sign that its warm enough to actually grow grass. Today's 77th edition of the Connaught Cup is one of those little signals to us northern folk that its OK to go outside without a layer of fleece on. It also gives us an opportunity to remember Prince Arthur, The Duke of Connaught and the Governor General of Canada during the first Great War, something my core audience of degenerate, hard core gambling types like to do.
I'm not sure if its a sign of a mini resurgence in horse racing or not, but The Turk and Little Turk's website traffic has blown up this month, setting an all-time high mark for visitors. Thanks for all my friends and readers who humor the Ol' Turk by dropping by.
I'm excited to again say The Turk Clan will be making our way to Churchill Downs later this year for the Breeders' Cup, attending with our dear friends, Cathy the Canadian Turk and her family. More on that when it gets closer, I need to remember that is a time of the year when grass doesn't grow at my house or Woodbine, a thought to depressing to dwell on.
Let's get after this!
Woodbine Race 8: The Connaught Cup Grade II on Turf
My initial thought after building my base handicap was that this race was too chalky to consider. I think an awful lot of Grand Adventure, and I really see this as his race to lose. The 5 YO son of Grand Slam, trained by Frostad, with Husbands up, is a classy serious runner with 5 turf wins in 15 starts, 2 of 2 at this distance and 5 of 10 on Woodbine grass. That doesn't mean he's unbeatable, in fact its been 11 months since he did win. That said, I like the 5 1/2 furlong soft turf effort he had at Keeneland in April and I'm going to back him as a single instead of betting against him.
The only way I can back the chalk as a single and make this interesting is to find some real value below him. Hailstone is a big leap of faith; Also running after trying Keeneland turf, he cuts back from a mile and sixteenth for trainer Casse.
Macias was a well thought after Bob Baffert runner as a two and three year old before being vanned offat Delmar last August. He switched to Asmussen's barn and the Zayat runner had a nice poly effort in Keeneland in late April. Plenty good for the top four!
Hollinger has been training very sharply at Woodbine and makes his second start off a greater than 180 day layoff for Roger Attfield. I'm looking for a minor prize.
I'm betting against a few runners and need them to lose to make this gambling exercise well played. Artic Fern is lightly raced and tries turf for the first time. The gelding has shown flashes of being special, I'm hoping not today. I'm a Signature Red fan and I expect he's the one that will trip me up a bit. I'll most likely cover him and cut someone else back. That other is Woodbourne, who I have higher right now but am rethinking and most likely will slide down below Signature Red.
The beauty of handicapping in advance is giving yourself time to reshape and rethink a bit just before heading to the window. It's not easy but try to do your handicapping before you go to the track and face the distractions that present themselves.
The Turk looked at the Connaught Cup at Woodbine as a chance to win some rather easy money. Perhaps that sounds arrogant? It should. Horse betting, unless you just like to give your money away, is about winning more money. If you're not good at it, you should give it up. If you want to get better, then keep working at it. Study your missteps, learn when to not bet, learn when to hedge your bets or when to let it ride straight. You won't win every bet. You might not win every six bets, but unless you like chalk and high risk, low reward bets, when you do strike gold, you'll hit it good.
I love handicapping. I'm not much of a bettor but I love to handicap. As I like to ramble on about, I'm cool with betting no more then $10 bucks or so on just a few races a week, and if I do well, I come out ahead. Am I retiring on that? Nope, but I'm also not laying out a big bank roll either, which Mrs. Turk would have a kitten over.
Which brings me back to the Connaught Cup. I would have liked at least two more starters to fatten the odds a bit, but I believed strongly after handicapping this race that Society's Chairman, Rahy's Attorney and Sterwins would be the top three. It wasn't rocket science, the bettors thought the same thing, voting the three into the top three spots on the tote board. I did hedge myself, a boxed $2 trifector bet that cost $12 dollars, as well as two straight Tri bets that hedged in two different third place finishers.
The payoff on a $2 Tri bet was $89.70. If I was more of a bettor I would have slammed down a $10 spot, but then that box costs $120, and while no matter how much money I bet I believe I will win, I'm just not into that kind of exposure week to week. I'll keep my day job and cash cigar, bourbon and past performance money.
Oh, and before I get nasty comments, I'm not an arrogant person, I'm an arrogant and introverted (non boasting, non animated, non vocally annoying) handicapper. It's part of my process; I have to believe that every bet I'm going to place has a likely chance of winning. I know the reality very well, which keeps me grounded and not destitute, but a little swagger to the game keeps me sharp.
Congratulations to Sterwins and his connections for setting a new course record of 1:38.99. The fractions were blazing and Rahy's Attorney wilted at the end.
Race 7 WO: The Connaught Cup Grade III; 1 1/16 mile on Ontario Turf for 4 YOs and Up.
I added video to the previous post on my post race analysis of The Arlington Classic.
Woodbine is the Turk's go to place in a jiffy for graded stakes action. Family obligations this holiday weekend prevent me from taking a trip north today, but that won't stop me from looking at this turf course race that features a Turk favorite, Rahy's Attorney, making his return to racing for the first time since last November.
Race 7 (post time 4:02 ET) WO: The Connaught Cup Grade III; 1 1/16 miles on Ontario Turf for 4 YOs and Up.
An interesting field to gage current form with. We have three horses coming off of >180 Day layoffs and three horses on a second trip after a layoff. What I think is the wild card is that some of the long layoff horses are top shelf thoroughbreds and should be good enough and experienced enough to go out and be workman like.
My early bet strategy will be several straight Triactor bets and I'll use my top 5 to build those tickets. I think the top of the finished order will be pretty chalky, so I'll limit myself to 10 bucks, no win or exactors, and we'll hope for a bit of chalk filled in with logical tote board party crashers. I'm giving the top slot to Society's Chairman but Rahy's Attorney is the best horse in this race and could/should win. The Tri tickets will be built around these two.
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