The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster Handicap G1 at Ellis Park

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog.  For those of you who have never read my blog, I'm The Turk and I've been handicapping and sharing my thoughts with this blog since 2008 and I've been playing the horses since 1986.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for putting up with my ramblings hosting my thoughts today.  

I must admit something:  In all that time of handicapping and horse race watching, I've never played Ellis Park.  I knew it was in Kentucky, knew it was old, had no bias against it, but never played it.  A few years ago I shifted my focus to older horses running routes of grass, and Ellis just isn't in my orbit.  I also knew Churchill Downs bought the facility, so hopefully this stately old track that was modeled after Saratoga won't be sold off just for the value of the land. 

Notice the highly unusual 90 degree chute for their mile course, just like Saratoga.  The race will start and stop right in front of the grandstand.  

The weather is a wild card.  It's very hot today but tomorrow there is a chance for severe weather even hail.  Make sure you check out the Ellis Park website and stay close to what's happening, but I'm handicapping assuming fast dirt for now.  

This time of the year with older dirt horses you can get a pretty good view of current form, as all eight of the horses have 3-5 starts by now.  These horses also travel in the same circles mostly and compete in the same high profile races.  I like recency video handicapping.  I focus on the trip, the pace, and then I like to look at the horse's stretch runs when ahead, pressing or faltering. I'm no horse flesh expert, and while I like to watch the horses in the paddock, they all look on the muscle to me, so I don't glean much from that, but I think its really important to bring context to the past performance, as good as they are at condensing a lot of information in a uniform fashion.  Most people don't have the time for that.  I'm a boutique handicapper, 3-4 races per weekend, sometimes less. I focus on the quality of my review and not the quantity.  I use to do the speed handicapping thing, not good.  

Anyways, Let's get after it! 

Stephen Foster Handicap G1: EP; 1 1/8 Miles

 

Like I was saying previously, these horses travel in the same circles.  The video below gives you a very good cross section of the runners.  I will say, I think this is an impressive field for only 8 horses.  You could make a case for any of the runners in my top six.  I stopped investing time in dirt racing a few years ago as the fields shrunk and the quality of the remaining competition became so-so.  This is a nice division currently, minus a few not here of exceptional quality, and there is quality and depth in the ranks.  

Yes, this is 4 YO and UP, and by June/July I start to consider the 4 YO's more seriously.  The Uncle Mo son Speed Bias is eye catching and a great price most likely.  No matter what I bet, I'll have a W-P-S on him I reckon.

I've got a coin toss between Rattle N Roll and Smile Happy as the best horses in the gate.  Rattle N Roll has decent early speed but not enough in this field to be too close at first turn, but very good closing speed.  Three wins straight.  8 wins in 15 Fast dirt tries. 3 wins in 4 starts in 2023.  Smile Happy can run well early, can run well late.  Blazing in the Alysheba in early May. the 4 YO is 7 of 8 lifetime in the money and if it gets sloppy, should be very good.  

I threw a blanket over my next group.  The beforementioned Speed Bias should have the best price.  Cutting back 1/16 for Trainer Moquett who is looking for first stakes win in a long while.  Training very sharply.  

Western Will Power is the Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating and Best Speed at Distance highest rated.  Trainer Cox and Prat combined at 27% in 410 starts in 2023.  Early speed, slows late and adding a 1/16 from last time out.  5 of 5 at the Distance Win-Place, 11 of 14 Win-Place over fast dirt and 13 of 16 Lifetime Win Place.  

Proxy has the inside post and should be on the rail most of the trip.  excellent late speed on display last time out at Oaklawn Handicap.  Stidham is 23% off of a layoff going back to late April.  7 of 8 lifetime in the money at the distance.  

I never know what to do with Stilleto Boy.  No doubt in my mind he will be the race leader at the first turn and most likely the second turn.  1 win in 5 starts at the distance.  3 wins in 19 fast dirt starts. 2 wins in last 10.  9, yes 9 Show Finishes in 22 starts.  I expect him to falter (famous last words).

I'm going to be playing exactas and at my own risk I am tossing Last Samurai and Happy American. I like Last Samurai but it's a loaded field. 

 Oaklawn Handicap G2:  22 April 2023;  1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

Santa Anita Handicap G1: 4 March 2023; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt.

Pimlico Special G3: 19 May 2023; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt

Blame Stakes G3:  CD 3 June 2023; 1 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt

Alysheba G2: CD 5 May 2023; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt

Ben Ali G3: KEE 22 April 2023; 1 3/16 Miles Fast Dirt

So what to do with all this?  I like to play exactas, so no reason to deviate. The best case scenario for me I don't see happening: a longer price winning over a mid pack price.  I also don't want to play it too safe.  Lets single Speed Bias to Win with Rattle N Roll to Place.  A $2 bet.  Sorry to disappoint with something better than that.  I may change my thinking based on track conditions and scratches, as I'd love to find a way to slip Last Samurai in.  

I have a correction to make to:  I bet Ellis Park once, Kentucky Downs Preview Day.  Now that Arlington Park is gone, Kentucky Downs is my favorite North American track, and that was the allure back in 2018.  The funny thing is I said in 2018 that I don't think I ever handicapped Ellis Park either!  

Have Fun Friends.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Stephen Foster G2 at Churchill Downs

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 14th year of providing good handicaps and terrible blogging to people who never asked for it, and Happy July 4th Weekend. I'd like to thank the good people at The Thorofan for inviting me to handicap my annual start to summer racing, The Stephen Foster Handicap G2. 

Poor Stephen Foster. He wrote some of the most memorable songs in Americana, including Camptown Races, Old Susanna and My Old Kentucky home, yet he died penniless at age 37 after smashing his head into a chamber pot as he passed out from a high fever. We remember him each year for this race, and his songs are forever ingrained into people of my generation and before me, you know, when kids use to play outside and frolicked in the summer before electronics and social media. 

It's a seven horse field, the weather looks to be wet, and the track conditions at least on Friday were Fast but check here Saturday. Lets get one thing straight: I'm unhappy with Churchill Downs Inc, how they have sabotaged Illinois racing, and their forcing the sale of Arlington International Racetrack. I loved Arlington, I will always love Arlington and I will never forgive the suits at CDI for putting their own interests ahead of everything else. Arlington was a beautiful and modern facility, in a sport that doesn't really have beautiful and modern facilities. Its turf course was the best in North America. I'm done gripping, but this is exhibit A why horse racing is failing and will continue to fail, a lack of a cohesive strategy to grow the sport and track owners placing their interests over the heath of the sport. While I said I don't like seven horse fields, at least this field has some consistency and potentially could make for an interesting outcome. Let's get after it! 

  Haskell Stakes G1: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. I don't generally look at video more than 3 months old, but the quality of Mandaloun really shines.  

  Alysheba Stakes G2: 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt. Watch Mott's VERY Game runner.  

Blame Stakes $198K: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. Americanrevolution a heavily bet 4th and just looked empty in the stretch.  

Oaklawn Handicap G2: 1 1/8 Miles Fast Dirt. Dallas Stewart Trained Last Samuri , D.Wayne Lukas is his new conditioner.  

 I think it's a bettors race. My instincts tell me that Mandaloun deserves the 2-1 ML. 6 of 10 Lifetime wins, 2 wins at distance, 5 wins in 9 fast dirt starts, 2 of 2 in the money at CD and Brad Cox Trainer, 28% off the layoff, 28% dirt winner and 26% graded stakes wins. I don't like first time returning horses from overseas, but he has been training at increasing distances at CD since late May. 

One play is to single him and play a few value horses in the exacta, something like a 6 - (1, and 7), with Caddo River and Last Samuri providing some sizzle. 

Alternatively, toss Mandaloun and play Olympiad to win with those value runners on the exacta. Mott's the master at bringing horses into good spots, and Olympiad is 4 wins in 4 starts in 2022, 6 wins in 9 Fast Dirt Starts, and a last start win in the Alysheba G2 here at 1 1/16 miles. Olympiad will press the pace. 3 (1,7) exacta.

Finally, you could play 6-3- (2-1-7) a $2 Trifecta for $6. You could play with some combinations of Place and Show, you get the idea. These are fun races to bet. Be patient, focus on the toteboard odds, don't be emotional about the horses themselves. Slot them, Value them, Bet Them, pray they all finish safe. Have fun friends, Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The G1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs under the lights

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Welcome Friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  The Turk has taken a handicappers holiday for most of 2018 while he was finishing up a Master's Degree in Finance.  The course work has mostly been used to analyze my poor betting capital allocations, but I'm back, and happily this first blog post back is for The Thorofan and the Handicapper's Corner.  Good People, Good Organization and hopefully good returns on investment.

The Turk has been a horse racing fan since Seattle Slew's Triple Crown run of 1977 when I was eleven years old.  Like many boy's my age, Sports Illustrated and ABC's Wide World of Sports were my windows into the sporting world, and horse racing was still a high profile major sport.  It's been great to see the excitement Justify and American Pharoah have brought to the sport, a sport that desperately needs more good marketing.  Churchill Downs night time racing is something I enjoy very much and while I know this 51 year old isn't exactly a demographic priority, I appreciate Saturday night racing and wagering and wish there was more quality nights like this in the summer.  

Let's get after this!

The weather on Friday and Saturday looks pretty dry, so let's assume a fast dry track.

Backyard Heaven, a lightly raced 4 YO Tizway colt, trained by Chad Brown, looked awfully impressive in dispatching Always Dreaming and a good field in the Grade 2 Alysheba here at CD on Kentucky Derby Day.  He's got excellent tactical speed and I'm singling him, keying all my thoughts on his continued brilliance.  You have to wonder what this win would mean and how Trainer Brown would point him afterwards, with the Breeders' Cup looming at Churchill Downs in five months. 

He is facing a deep and talented field: Churchill local Honorable Duty breaks from the 1 gate and will need his early speed to gain position.  The 6 YO gelded son of Distorted Humor is 6 of 8 in the money at CD and 9 of 11 in the money over fast dirt.  Trainer Brendan Walsh and rider Lanerie are clipping along at a 30% win rate with 46 mounts this year.   Place in last years edition of this race.

Irish War Cry, 4 YO Curlin, comes in off a driving win in the Pimlico Special in the slop where he has a 421 Tomlinson. It was his first win six starts after his Wood Memorial.   I'm not sold.  

Pavel, the 4 YO enigmatic Creative Cause, campaigned by the Reddam Team of Doug O'Neill with Gutierrez up, is too talented to overlook.  A well beaten fourth in Dubai in March followed by a well beaten fourth in the Gold Cup G1 at Santa Anita three weeks ago, breaking at the top of the stretch under the pressure of fast fractions.  The distance and class cutback won't hurt but I need to see more consistency before considering him to win races.  

Looking at Lee, who's arguable best performance was a lagging Place to Always Dreaming in last year's Kentucky Derby, comes in off his first win, a 62K OC N2X class drop.  I grouped him with a couple of 8 YO geldings, Hawaakom and Matrooh.  They are both hard knocking veterans who can easily be in the money, especially Hawaakom with his very late speed.  

Pletcher's uncoupled Uncle Mojo and fan favorite Patch round out the field and I've tossed them both from contention at my own risk.  

So what to do with this?  As I said, I see Backyard Heaven as a heavy favorite and I'm singling him on all my tickets.

Exacta:  $2 Bet 6 OVER 1-3-5  for $6.   I'd expect the 1-3-5 will all be >6-1 and should easily return my opportunity cost.  

Trifecta:  $2 Bet  6 OVER 1-3-8-9 OVER 1-3-5-7-8-9 for $40.  Dropping the 7 altogether takes the bet to $32.

Good news:  The handicapping holiday refreshed both me and my love of the game.  The bad news:  I'm a bit rusty, so no betting the mortgage on my ramblings.

Good luck, Turk out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I at Churchill Downs

The Little Turk was campaigning for glory on the soccer field this past weekend. The chance to watch him run free up the wing gave the Big Turk a chance to decompress after handi-blogging nearly 100 races this calendar year. I had several races set aside this week to handicap, but after spending an hour or so on the Stephen Foster field, I could not find the focus to think of any other hoofbeats.

Resetting the pre-race buzz, I looked at this race as a chance for Einstein to once again prove to the racing world that he is the best older horse racing right now in North America. The Pitts trainee doesn't care about the surface at all, he just runs and wins. I also expected a big coming out party for Researcher and Finallymadeit.

The Turk often talks about the best bets being the ones you don't make. I couldn't settle on a bet strategy that I liked so I passed on betting at all. That proved to be a good move, as two horses I considered candidates for Show and the 4th spot on the Superfecta, Macho Again and Asiatic Boy, went right to the wire for the top two spots, while Einstein had a horrible trip and only his class allowed him to find Show.


Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on my ol' Kentucky home dirt for 3 YO and Up.



Watch the trips and tip your hat to the winner.



The race I wanted to handicap this weekend was The Californian at Hollywood Park. Congrats to the former claimer Informed, a horse I would not have picked. The best bets are sometimes the ones we can't make because jr. is playing soccer. Go Fire!

The Nomination Is In: June 13, 2009: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I Churchill Downs

That very nice Vanessa Ng photo to the left is none other then mighty Curlin, the best dirt runner in the past ten years, winning the 2008 Stephen Foster Handicap. Today's edition of the race features arguably the greatest horse running in North America right now, Einstein. The parallel between these two champions is interesting, as Curlin never found a comfort level on turf or synthetic, and Einstein seems to care less what surface he skims across.

Today's edition features at least 7 horses you could make the argument for winning this race, an impressive field indeed. My initial base handicap looks like this:

Race 10 CD: The Stephen Foster Handicap Grade I: 1 1/8 miles on beautiful Kentucky dirt for 3 YOs and Up.



With Einstein racing recently and putting up a 106 BSF, I don't question his current overall form. He hasn't won on dirt since taking to this track the day after Thanksgiving last year in the Grade II Clark. he is the superior horse and he has the CD experienced J.R. Leparoux up. He will be in the top three and almost all my tickets will have him Win or Place.

I think that Researcher and Finallymadeit are very similar horses and the same arguments for and against them are relevant. Either is capable of winning, but more likely I think both will reside somewhere in the top four.

The next cluster of horses, Arson Squad (long layoff, not a winning just a ticket dweller, Macho Again (likes the off tracks lately and not much of a place and show horse), Bullsbay (6 wins in last 14 starts, 3 of 3 CD, training well, and Asiatic Boy(McLaughlin/Garcia duet coming off long layoff, with lasix coursing through body for first time, something Kiran wins 25% of the time with) could all find their way on the ticket. I like Bullsbay's current resume the best, and Asiatic Boy is a bit of an unknown but I just don't like the long layoff.

My only toss out was Alphabet Magic..

That leaves me with a dilemma. I have been analyzing my betting practices over the past few months and I did notice a bad habit increasing: I'm working too many combinations of horses and not following my betting rules. I got a little loose with my rules around Kentucky Derby time and it's time to refocus. I'll wager between $12-14 and work my base handicap with exacta and trifectas. I'm keying to Einstein winning with the trifecatas.

The Little Turk is playing in a travel soccer tournament today. I'll have plenty of time between games to finish my bet strategy. Pay attention to the track conditions and the tote board.

Turk Out!