The Nomination Is In: The United Nations G2 at Monmouth Park

2024 United Nations at the wire: Get Smokin. 

                                                                                                                               Welcome friends to The Turk blog, where I handicap turf racing and build exacta bets.  I've been handicapping for 39 years and I've been a fan of the ponies since Seattle Slew when I was 11 years old.

If you are new to my blog, welcome.  I've never made much of an effort to distribute this blog widely, but I have created a new Facebook Page and a X/Twitter Account, so if you found me there, I am grateful.  

Today is one of the marquee days in horse racing, Haskell Day at Monmouth Park.  The United Nations G2 just before the Haskell is today's turf racing mystery to solve.

Let's get after it!

Just a reference point

20 July 2024 Mth;  The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles Firm Turf

19 April 2025 Kee; The Elkhorn G2: 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

14 June 2025 Mth; The Monmouth Stakes $150K; 1 1/8 miles on good Turf

 

14 June 2025 DEL; The Cape Henlopen Stakes $200K; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf

 

 The United Nations G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Turf

Interesting field with no heavy chalk but clearly a line between Graded Stakes class and Allowance/Minor stakes. The potential for a freaky finish and a higher payout is what attracts me to these sort of fields and races, although I find it some of the hardest handicapping I do.  

Redistricting (GB) and Limited Liability seem like the cream of the crop. 

Redistricting (GB) is a 5 YO, lightly raced making 10th career start, 5 of 9 in the exacta.  Last win was here at Monmouth in the Monmouth Stakes, winning as the heavy chalk.  Stepping up bigly in class, but a close Place in the G2 Seabiscuit Handicap in November 2024 gives me promise.  Prat/Chad Brown are 26% together over past year in 291 starts.  

Limited Liability comes in off a layoff since b19 April at KEE Elkhorn G2, a beaten head.  0 of 3 at this distance, 8 of 20 exacta finishes over turf.  On a run of six straight in the money finishes.  

Rebel Red (GB) and Grand Sonata are in my next layer of quality. 

Rebel Red  (GB) is a 5 YO son of Frankel (GB) with huge closing speed, the best late Timeform US Pace of the field.  Winner last time out in $170K stake at Churchill Downs, setting a career best 100 Beyer at 1 3/8ths, today's distance. A race best Tomlinson at the distance and the 3rd best Tomlinson over grass.  

Grand Sonata was a beaten nose at this race in 2024 to Get Smokin, the 10 horse.  Also a solid closer.  Walked off after Belmont Gold Cup in June, the 6 YO wanted nothing to do with the dirt slop when race moved off grass.  G2 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup winner in 2024 and a beaten head at Gulfstream Park in a G2 in March.  

Major Dude, Tawny Port and Get Smokin are where I cut off the contenders for the Exacta.  

Trainer Todd Pletcher's Major Dude is a 5YO making 20th Turf Start.  9 of 19 in the exacta over grass, first time at this distance and first time at Monmouth.  Last time out was at 1 Mile.  Hasn't gone past 9f in 5 races, the Pegasus Turf G1 where he was in a position to close but didn't.  

Tawny Port also wanted nothing to do with the slop in the Belmont Gold Cup and eased to be 81 lengths back (I'd called that eased).  Two Show finishes in two tries at Monmouth, but both gutty efforts.  Miguel Clement saddles him, the Turk still isn't ready to memorialize his favorite trainer, Christophe Clement, but rest in peace.  No wins in four tries at this distance.  1 win in 12 turf starts.  

8 YO Get Smokin must be respected  for his game win here last year.  

Starting Over and Vote No could have been considered, but I don't see it, although the 4 YO Vote No has 3 wins in 6 turf stars , closes well and is a last race winner.  

I think I'd be foolish to not cover Redistricting and Limited Liability in the top two spots.  Rebel Red and Grand Sonata,  Vote No and Tawny Port are my contenders.  

Rebel Red OVER Redistricting, Limited Liability, Grand Sonata, and Tawny Port, a $2 Exacta for $8.  

A dart throw really.  I think Rebel Red will be no better than 3rd on the Tote Board and I'm looking for value.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

7 OVER 3-4-2

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Downs Turf Cup G2

Kentucky Downs from above

 Welcome to The Turk Blog, started in 2008 and now with over 725 postings.  The Turk Blog specializes in turf racing and exacta bet construction.  I appreciate The Thorofan, and their Handicappers Corner, for allowing me an opportunity to share my writing with you today.  

As a fan of turf racing, and with the death of Arlington International, Kentucky Downs became my favorite track and boutique meet of the year.  I wish I could say I was good at either handicapping the races there, or building better constructions, but that is part of the charm at Kentucky Downs, the races are hard to predict, its difficult to know which horses will take to the quirky track, and the sample sizes of horses running on the track itself are very small.  

What is it about Kentucky Downs? It is a unique racetrack located in Franklin, Kentucky, near the Tennessee border. Known for its European-style turf course, the track stands out in the American horse racing landscape due to its undulating, irregularly shaped layout, which differs from the traditional oval tracks seen across the United States. Founded in 1990, Kentucky Downs is built on the historic site of the old Dueling Grounds, adding a layer of history to its modern-day horse racing activities.

The track hosts some of the richest turf races in North America, despite offering a short annual meet. Its premier event and the focus of today, The Kentucky Turf Cup G2, attracts top-quality horses and trainers.  Kentucky Downs has gained a reputation for offering large purses like this race $2.0 MM, largely due to its successful historical horse racing (HHR) machines, which operate year-round. These gaming machines have boosted the track's revenue, allowing it to increase race day payouts and enhance its appeal to the racing community.

Kentucky Downs emphasis on both historic tradition and modern gaming has helped the venue carve out a special niche in the racing industry.

So what were the The Dueling Grounds of Kentucky? Located near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, the dueling grounds hold a unique place in American history. Known as the "Spanish Main," this area served as a notorious site for duels in the 19th century. Due to the strict laws against dueling, this location, just outside state jurisdiction, became a favored spot for those seeking to resolve personal disputes through "honorable combat."

The Dueling Grounds gained infamy for high-profile duels, particularly during the early 1800s, including the fatal duel in 1826 between U.S. Congressman John Randolph and Henry Clay, a prominent American statesman and future presidential candidate. Though the duel ended without bloodshed, it underscored the site’s role in shaping political and personal conflicts of the time. Duels,  dangerous and deadly, were also a socially accepted method for defending one’s honor in certain circles. By the mid-19th century, dueling fell out of favor, and the Dueling Grounds eventually faded into history.

In 2014, National Geographic found evidence of spent casings and lead bullet fragments, confirming the exact location of the duels. To this day, Kentucky is the only state requiring office holders to swear to uphold that they have never dueled or challenged anyone to a duel.  

Enough Turk, get on with it! 

The weather should be dry and the track firm.  The track website is pretty barebones but you can find scratches and changes and track surface info here.  

$2.0 MM Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Grade 2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Just a few relevant videos, but at 1 1/2 miles, don't put too much into these.  

 4 August 2024 EIP; Turf Cup Preview $299K; 1 1/4 Miles firm turf.  Highway Robber/1; King Curlin/6; Anglophile/9

11 August 2024 CNL; Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf.  Integration/2; Sugoi/5

20 July 2024 MTH; United Nations G2; 1 3/8 Miles on Firm Turf.  Get Smokin/4; Tawny Port/7; Grand Sonata/10

So what should you do with all this?  First, check for scratches and changes.  There were none when I wrote this on Thursday evening.  Next, hold your bets and watch that tote board leading up to post time.  Finally, have fun.  It's Kentucky Downs, anything can happen.  If I choose to bet I will look at an exacta with Integration/2 above Get Smokin/4, Tawny Point/7, Anglophile/9, Sugoi/5 and Highway Robber/1, a $10 Bet and alternatively, I'd drop Integration and $2 box 4-7-9-5-1 for $40.  Both are pricey and big gambles but the handle will be big and its worth stretching.  

Have fun,  Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Haskell Day Jersey Shore Pick 6 Races 8-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, usually focusing on Turf Racing and Exacta Betting.  I said normally because today I'm handicapping the Jersey Short Pick Six (20 cent minimum), which incorporates The G3 Molly Pitcher, The G1T United Nations and the G1 Haskell.  There was a time when this blog focused on Superfecta Betting but I've never been much of a horizontal bettor.  It's not that I can't pick winners, it's part of the job description, but I never wanted to invest the time or the gambling capital needed.   As the Turk nears retirement, I can see a day coming in my future where I get back to handicapping whole cards for mental exercise and relaxation, and I do think horizontals will be my thing as I spend full days in Hawaiian shirts without a care in the world.  That's if the sport survives, but that's another rant for another day, 

    Full disclosure, I'm not betting my Pick 6, it's purely a mental exercise for me right now.  I'll most likely paly most of these races as Win Bet or Exacta, but the Pick 6 betting strategy I don't have enough time into thinking about and I will revisit it another day.  If you are into the horizontals, today may be the day to focus on the $500,000 guaranteed Pick 4 Race 9-12  or the $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 5, Race 10-14. 

Let's get after it!

 

Monmouth Park: Races 8-13 P6

In race 8, I have Late Speed with Proxy/6 and Early Speed with Whelen Springs/7.   I see them as the class of this race, and they checked all my boxes for class, recent form, performance. 

If I'm still alive after Race 8 (which is not a given!), I go into two races that I plan to single.  In Race 9, I went seven deep with potential win candidates but I'm singling Fore Harp/9 with Paco Lopez (29% MTh) up.  slight cut back, great recent form cycle, Trainer/Jock solid.

I've played risky and lose, and if I'm still alive (it's gambling but...) in Race 10, the G3 Molly Pitcher I'm singling Search Results/4.  Brown/Rosario 20% this rolling year , Brown's 34% at Monmouth, 30% off the 40 ish day layoff, and just great form.  

In the Grade 1 United Nations,  it's hard not to root for Red Knight. The 9 YO has a G1 and G3 win this year and placed in a G2.  Was a bit fractious in the gate in the Manhattan last time out.  I expect him to be post time favorite which is wild, but I'm covering some value with him who I really like, Catnip/3 and Planetario (Brz)/6.  Catnip is very intriguing, training well, winner in G3 Monmouth last time out.  

In the Haskell I'm not looking towards the Kentucky Derby winner, Mage.  Next time out I will like him more, but I'd like to see how he bounces back.  I really like Salute the Stars/3; Winner last time out here, improving and value.  Geaux Rocket Ride/1, Tapit Trice/5, Extra Anejo/7 and Arabian Knight/8 are all solid and to me, a cut above the rest.  Great betting races in this Pick 6.  I don't believe I'm alive in this thing, but we solider on!

Finally, in Race 13, Boston Princess/2, Cecile/7 and Fortineno (Ire)/9 are my choices as best of the field.  

Wasn't a great post, I think I'm burned out from such compelling fields and heavy handicapping.  I'll unwind it tomorrow.

Have fun friends

Turk Out

Post Race Results: The United Nations at Monmouth

The Turk don't brag or self promote.  I've been handicapping for well over 25 years and I can pick winners. The first step before you even try to assemble the exotic bets that I do is learn to place horses in expected ranges of finish.  In a nine horse field, can you get the horses into a Top, Middle and Bottom three to start?  Can you identify solid singles?

The Turk looked at post time 10/1 Bigger Picture (4-1 ML) and saw real value.  Joe Bravo up, big plus.  Trainer Maker 20% on 887 turf races, big plus.  Solid training and a cut back in distance.  A value pick, and contrarian to post time 7/5 Beach Patrol who I like, but hey, this isn't Curlin or even the Lemon Drop Kid. 

Value pick.  No pink sheets.  No fees.  Handicapping and Bet analysis for people who never asked for it!




The Turk cashed tickets on the exacta and trifecta.  Good way to start the second half of the race season.




Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The United Nations at Monmouth

Beach Patrol: Photo Lane's End

Welcome friends to The Turk and The Little Turk blog.

The Turk loves a good head scratcher.  That's what today' United Nations over the grass is to me:  A quality nine horse field, with the turf listed as firm but heavy rains predicted over the next several hours.  The field is still intact but keep your eyes on the track conditions and scratches and changes.


I picked Beach Patrol for my highlighted equine today, but I'm betting against him.  His last win was a gutty effort six races back at Arlington and he's the only Grade 1 winner here, but I'm expecting he'll be heavily bet so I'm thinking contrarian and will fit him into Place and Show.

I'll save my crazy, rapid readers a rambling diatribe and just get after it.




Chad Brown's barn is 23% over the turf, 24% routes and 20% graded stakes, all race highs.  Beach Patrol is 10 of 13 in the money over turf.  I'm shading out of the Win Spot to my own peril.

I'm considering any of three for Win.  Bigger Picture, trained by Michael Maker, with Bravo Up, has two wins at the distance.  The gelded six year old should be in the top 5.

Messi (Ger) has been training sharply for Graham Motion and the seven year old will have a nice price.  Better suited in Show-Exotic spot.

Can'thebelieving (Ire) it's Motion's other entry.  The six year old gelding put a good effort up over Monmouth turf in June and is also training sharp.  Better suited in Place-Exotic.

Itsinthepost (Fr) is 4 of 5 in the money in 2017 and he should put up a solid effort regardless of turf condition.  I like him to Win through Exotic, top 4.

Oscar Nominated is a four year old Kitten's Joy colt running for Michael Maker.  He's a bit slower than the rest of the field but is my only remaining candidate for the top 4.

That's six horses being considered for top four slots.  I'm not going to overthink this one too much.

Beach Patrol should set the pace.  I'm looking for Itsinthepost to rally for the Win as most likely scenario.  My base handicap is a rare deviation for me and I didn't base handicap and instead built a possible exotic bet structure.  I may keep it simple and put 3-5-7 OVER 2-1, a $2 bet for $12.

My trifecta may be 2 OVER 1-3-5-7 OVER 1-3-5-7-8, a $2 bet for $32.   Whatever I do today, I'm not over covering and I'm prepared to lose for a reasonable chance at least double the return if I win.


What ever you do, handicap yourself and bet responsibly.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Chicago Handicap at Arlington Park and a Post Race Analysis of Graded Stakes Grab Bag

The Turk likes to take time to celebrate the little steps along the long road of life and The Turk and Little Turk have reached a milestone, 400 Blog Posts.

In the big picture those 400 Blog Posts didn't add anything to society but they did do wonderful things for me personally: I've met some truly interesting people and I have acquaintances and friends I can meet at all the major tracks around the country when I'm looking to enjoy a social moment and not just a hard core degenerate betting experience. Before the blog, before Facebook, Twitter, the web, I was alone in the horse racing experience, buying the form and placing my bets. The world spilled wide open and it was satori to realize that like minded people all over the country existed. The Turk and the Little Turk started as a simple outlet to post the 3H's: Horses, handicapping and our personal hijinks's. We've kept our simple approach and we have no intention of being anything other than what we currently are.

Thank you all for reading!

I enjoyed the smorgasbord of racing I handicapped yesterday, even if after I handicapped I felt that it was a pretty uninspiring collection of betting races, as the fields were a bit small and, quite honestly, I had no feel for a few of them. The best handicap and potentially the best bet I would have made was the Superfecta on the United Nations, powered by Teaks North finishing on top.

I'm in full blown 4th of July weekend relaxation mode; I always thought this would be the best weekend for the Millions preview at Arlington but the folks there think differently. As much as I love to handicap the grass at Arlington, I pretty much have had extremely mixed results handicapping the fake dirt there over the past two years. Today I take a swing at The Chicago Handicap, a seven furlong affair for Fillies and Mares, with my only real objective being to play the card and get a feel for the surface again.

Let's recap yesterday briefly and get to today's Chicago Handicap.



The Dwyer



The Suburban Handicap



The Shoemaker Mile



The Triple Bend Handicap



Everyone should have their own style of handicapping and betting; mine is to handicap, without morning lines or any pre race hype news articles, and then build a bet strategy after that. One downside is I often handicap races that have little to offer as betting opportunities to make cash at, but if you study the Past Performances, the Race Chart and the video, the effort is seldom wasted. Dominus was allowed to go through easy fractions in a yawner of a Dwyer. We wondered aloud where the pace would come from pre race and it never really came. With the scratch of Rocking Out the field dropped to six, the super option went away and this became a race to watch and keep the wallet in the pocket. We did have Adios Charlie finishing in Place. I keep stats for myself, which I don't bore you folks with, of my base handicaps that are contrarian to heavy chalk. Even without betting I take something away from this race and we move along.

In Race 10, The Suburban Handicap, I must admit that this field left me perplexed. In the history of my 400 blog postings I'm not sure I ever put up a handicap where I didn't toss someone, anyone. I had no intention of betting this race and I didn't and I'm glad as I would have never bet Flat Out. I was impressed by Hymn Book, who I discounted, but the bettors didn't, off the strong last race off the turf effort beating I Want Revenge (which use to mean something, but I am confused by what distance Rodman is best suited for because I dunno.

There is no bragging, ever, from the Turk. I keep to a strong code and bragging is prohibited. The closest I may ever come to bragging will be to describe what i do well as a handicapper. The United Nations is the text book superfecta win I assemble pretty regularly. A nice 10 horse field with a very clear line between who will be in the top 5 and who wouldn't be. Teaks North past performance had a bullet handride 4f :47 effort and a Grade 3 96 Beyer win effort at Monmouth on June 12th. I disliked the lack of wins at the distance but I made note of the 3 of 3 on Monmouth turf and 4 wins in nine tries on Turf. Nice win but I expected a top four finish, not exactly a win spot. The others just slotted in and the super paid $377. I call those workmanlike, not sexy.

The two Hollywood Park races I passed on as well and we'll just leave it to the video to tell those stories.

I handicap many more races than I could possibly blog. I'll handicap the whole Arlington card today and I'll start handicapping Arlington more over the next several weeks as I target Millions Preview Day and Millions Day. A fairly even collection of fillies and mares will contest today's Chicago Handicap. Florida Bred Hooh Why is is lifetime money winner as well as the high Beyer on fake dirt. The 5 Yo mare comes in off an N3X win at 7f on the AP fake stuff in mid June, but some 25 Beyer points lower than her lifetime best. Tidal Pool brings some name recognition and a 0-60 Graded Stakes streak in for D. Wayne Lukas. Dr. Zic competes almost exclusively in graded stakes action but doesn't win much; a nice Grade I at KEE in April 2010 seems along time ago now. Devil By Design is coming off a very long layoff, something Bill Mott wins 16% of the time. The 5 YO Medeglia d'Oro daughter hasn't done much in 11 months. La Rocca is with trainer Michael Stidham for the first time, a 22% win angle but he puts Martinez and his 10% win rate instead of Napravnik and her 21% win clip, whom he has up on his other entrant, Lookn Even Finer, who switches from turf/synth at a 24% clip and 23% winner off the fillies last race win. the former claimer is starting to grow on me.

Who did I miss? Illinois Bred Home's the Best ran a nice 93 Beyer at 1 1/8 miles over the fake AP dirt in late May and Hot Hot Mama doesn't have much but her name to excite me.

I handicapped and I'll watch to see how it all flops out. Have a good holiday weekend.

Turk Out!