The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Grade 1

 

Welcome friends to The Thorofan Handicappers Corner and this handicap of the Breeder's Cup Classic presented by The Turk, with the aid of his trusted sidekick, The Little Turk. I'd like to start by thanking The Thorofan for the opportunity to share my thoughts with their readers, and I'd like to encourage horseplayers to consider joining the growing ranks of a premier fan based organization like The Thorofan.

 

Handicapping and Gambling are different sides of a coin to me.  I almost always start with a base handicap.  My base handicap is just a reordering of the horses within a range of expected finishes, what I layers.  I try not to get too emotional about the horses, but its hard as a fan and a handicapper.  That said, when I'm investing money, I try to leave emotions at the door and remain completely objective.  One way I do that is to not get caught up too much in the pre race hype that accompanies these major horse racing events.  I tend to avoid reading the slew of excellent turf writers who cover these events, especially the human interest pieces.  Perhaps that takes away some of the fan experience, but it also helps me eliminate outside biases.  My point is that my almost 30 years of handicapping has taught me that a consistent approach to handicapping is important to improving your ROI into the black. 

 

I think I digressed and I tend to do that!  I start with a base handicap and I develop an opinion as to how many legitimate horses are in a field and what the pace situation is expected to be.  With that thought I can layer speed, stalking and closers into what I believe is the right layer of finish.  I seldom enter a handicap with a particular choice on the betting menu already chosen, but for major racing events, I am held is sway by the Super High Five, that shining cup at top of the mountain that few sip from.  OK, dramatic yes, but as a handicapper and bettor, its my ultimate challenge, as elusive as a Pick 6, and a crazy adrenaline rush when you hit it, which I  have on several occasions.

If you are looking for a safe win bet, leave now, as this is not the blog for you.  That said, when I prepared my handicap I saw a layering that lends itself to The Super High Five, and that is a layering of the talent level of the horses within the field, which I think is pretty defined, especially with the scratch of Ron the Greek, an especially hard horse to layer.  You can keep up with any other scratches or changes here.

Let's stop chatting and get after this.




When you enter a handicap with a particular bet in mind, which again is not my typical approach, I take one of two tacts:  I see value and I have a wide open win spot OR I have an overwhelming favorite and I am going to back the favorite, either singling or having no more than two horses layered to win.  With Game on Dude here, I am taking the later approach, placing him as a single on my ticket, and moving on.  A couple of thoughts:  A boxed 7 horse $1 bet on the Super High Five would cost you $2,520, a six horse box is $720 and a 5 horse box is $120.  These are expensive bets.  They pay out in the thousands, and I've hit a few that have paid out $4,000 and I've come within a head bob of $75,000.  You can't cover everybody in an exotic bet.  You will have to make choices based on your read of the past performances, how the track is playing, and ultimately have some luck.  Game On Dude is 5 for 5 in 2013, 7 wins in 8 starts at Santa Anita, 8 of 11 in the money at the distance, 10 of 16 on fast dirt, training fast and Hall of Fame jock Mike Smith up for Baffert.  I'd place his odds of winning at 2 in 3 tries and that's good enough for me to make this single selection.  Would there be more value placing him Second and having an upset winner, perhaps Will Take Charge, nipping him at the wire: Absolutely and I encourage my readers to have the stomach to make those type of bold bets, as the payout will be phenomenal. 

Which leads me to my next digression: Make your own opinions.  I've been handicapping for many years, and blogging my handicaps for some time too, and I've never once said that I had an iron pipe lock of a handicap and that you would be foolish to ignore my opinions.  Wrong! I have stunk this Handicappers Corner up to high heaven over the years, but I've also had my share of success.  Just have fun and bet responsibly.  I think I digressed again.

I have a three horse layer for Place:  Will Take Charge is a horse I loved early on the Derby trail and was happy for Lukas at the Travers and the PA Derby that this horse he patiently conditioned had arrived.  Boon or Bust, I have him 2nd through 5th.  Mucho Macho Man I think is the best of this group: He's run awfully well at Santa Anita but there is absolutely nothing to make you think he wants 10 panels.  The only difference between my $96 and $84 dollar bet ideas is being a bit more behind Mucho Macho Man and only covering Place and Show.  Finally, the champ, Fort Larned, cannot just be casually ignored (like I did last year).  I'm not sure he's been challenged all year and I don't have any sort of feel for him.  I think he could finish anywhere from Place to 8th. 

My last layer is Palice Malice, Flat Out and Paynter.  Any of them are good enough to go Place-Show and you could make a strong case to flip flop Palice Malice and Mucho Macho Man and Paynter or Flat Out with Fort Larned.  Again, you have to make choices. 

Choices.  Such a dirty word sometimes.  Toss outs are a choice and historically someone from this group will gallantly charge into 4th or 5th place, 12 lengths behind the winner and screw up the bet.  I like Last Gunfighter quite a bit:  4 wins in six starts in 2013, 6 wins in 12 fast dirt moments, and nice connections with Trainer Chad Brown and Castellano up.  Moreno will have early speed.  I'm expecting a deep fade in the last 1/8 mile, and I need that fade to be at least to sixth place.  Declaration of War is clearly very classy but I'm not biting and I am completely discounting Planteur (Ire), always a kiss of death.

I know I have at least one or two more iterations of my bet structure to make before tomorrow.  Play with your own, watch today's dirt races and see where the winners at a 1/8 pole, at the 1/4.  I expect most of the winners on dirt at Santa Anita to be the early speed, with the wild card being an extra length of track to cover. 

Have fun friends, Turk out!

The Nomination is In: The Donn Handicap Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends and readers of The Turk and Little Turk, and a special welcome to the readers of the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I'd like to thank the Thorofan for the work that they do promoting the fans of horse racing and creating a community of horse racing fans throughout the United States.

I look forward to the Donn Handicap every year, the first big older horse division two turn racing. Good stuff for the horse racing fan inside me but a jagged reef for most handicappers. This early in the season you have a mixed bag of horses at different points in their cycle: Some are coming back from the farm, some raced continuously since the Fall, some are on their second runs off a long break. Trainers have targeted objectives for these horses and their objective may not be winning Grade 1 races in early February. All of these factors to me makes for incredible variability, good payouts, and a chance for frustration or glory. The Turk, a proponent of exotic betting, likes to keep it a bit simple when there are this many moving pieces, and quite honestly, not investing my hard earned capital on crapshoots is often the best course of action. It would be a pretty boring and unfulfilling handicap if I pulled the chicken switch, so we will put our best handicap forward and push up to the punters window with some cash.

Let's get it on!

2013 Donn Handicap Grade 1



There should be an interesting pace to this race, with a bunch of horses that might strike the front and try to stay there. With that much speed it may set up perfectly for a late breaker like the 8 year old, Pool Play: A $30,000 Silver Deputy has earned $1.2 Million through 20 of 34 lifetime money finishes. Another two who may break late and hit the wire or the ticket is Ultimate Eagle and Bourbon Courage. I'm leaning in a different direction, I'm going with the winner of the 2012 Florida Derby, Take Charge Indy.


2012 Florida Derby G1 Take Charge Indy wires the field




2012 Clark Handicap G1: A gutty Place for Take Charge Indy



Training sharply for Trainer Byrne, he's coming off a layoff that Byrne wins 20% of the time. Take Charge Indy is 3 of 3 in the money lifetime at the distance, 2 of 2 in the money at Gulfstream, and 6 of 9 lifetime in the money. His last race against a beast in Shackelford at the Clark was gutty. With Johnny V, up, he'll need to settle, relax and show something as a four year old he didn't show as a 3 Year old: Versatility.

The game winner of the Hal's Hope at Gulfstream is a logical win bet as well (I'd paste the video but some video troll at Gulfstream didn't allow for embedding)

2013 Hal's Hope G3 at Gulfstream

A 4 year old Kitten's Joy who has had good results at GP: 2 wins in 3 tries including a 103 BSF win in December.

Graydar is a very lightly raced Pletcher pupil, and he puts a steady hand in Edgar Prado up on him again as they look for their first stakes win.

So what do we do? I have a base handicap with the way I see the race unfolding. I think the speed may wear down and fade but I'm not betting the mortgage on this baby. I'll most likely box my top 4 for a Trifecta: That's a $48 dollar flier and horses that should all stay under 4 to 1. If you want to go safer, there will be a couple of horses under 8 to 1 like Bourbon Courage, Fast Falcon and Pool Play that could strike for Place. Build several bets with one horse keyed to Win and these two boxed to Place. For $18 dollars you can assemble an Exacta with Graydar, Csaba and Take Charge Indy to Win and drop Bourbon Courage, Ultimate Eagle and Pool Play in Place. I like it and I think I found my bet.

The key in playing the horses in my opinion is to do your homework, be prepared and not start handicapping after the last race goes final, have a plan and work your plan. I've been a horse player for most of my adult life, I watch the horses because I love these magnificent animals, but I handicap purely to relieve work stress and relax. Anyone can be break even if you take it seriously and do the work, and with practice you can scrape out a positive ROI. Bottom line though, have fun, it's a great sport.

I'm ignoring Flat Out at my own Peril.

Best of Luck, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Breeders' Cup Classic Super High 5

I'd like to start by saying that it is an honor and privilege to be able to write the handicap for the Breeders' Cup Classic for The Thorofan Handicappers Corner. The Thorofan is an organization of horse racing enthusiasts representing horse racing enthusiasts. I'm proud to be a member and a contributor.

What I'm about to propose is risky, but the upside can get seriously large. I've handicapped and constructed a SUPER HIGH FIVE bet for the Classic. The Super High Five is not a regular option on the betting menu, but for Ye' Ol Turk, it represents my white whale, a glittering jewel that I like to claim not only for the money, but for the prestige as well.

The Base Handicap is as the name implies, my primary view of the field. With both color (Green-Yellow-Red) and with Letter Grades (A-D) my base handicap reorders the field into an expected order of finish. It's no different than what the morning line odds are doing except instead of generating my own odds line (which I tediously did for many years) I rank the horses with a grade below B- outside of the Exotic Pool generally. One of the more consistent comments I've gotten over the years is "Hey Turk, you're a chalk eater." I'm good with that, because I'm an exotic bettor mostly. I often don't really care who wins, as long as I have the winner covered in my matrix, the who's who of horses in the bet and out.

Now you can take the handicap and apply any sort of exotic bet over the top of it. The beauty of taking the time to build a base handicap is if a horse scratches, I'm only sliding horses up or down. Unless the field is devoid of pace, my base handicap allows me to calmly study the tote board before the betting windows close and make value decisions on who I put in the different slots to maximize profit. I'm really not a chalk eater, but I understand the criticism.

Criticism? Who cares. You're a handicapper, you aren't trying to convince everyone who's going to win, you have to convince yourself that your hard earned betting capital is worth putting at stake on a particular contest. You can think anything you want of me when this handicap is done. A handicapper has to have thick skin. It's sort of like a cornerback who just got burned by a beautiful deep ball from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson (ok bad example): you have to forget it before the next play. I've lost track of how many times one of my toss horses won a race. I don't focus on that, just the big picture overall, am I ahead or behind. Strive for consistency, in your handicapping, your bet construction and your capital investments.

Before I stop preaching, learn to walk away from a race. If this race was on Santa Anita's old fake dirt, with multiple European horses entered, I'd walk away in a second. I like to control the number of variables to as few as possible: I think the weather will be good, I think the track will be fast, I know every horse in the field well, I like my odds of separating the wheat from the chaff. What can't I control? The darn horses, they sometimes got a mind of their own, and nothing kills me more than seeing a neck or a nose separate a horse from the exotics from the also ran's.
Let's get after this before I bore you to tears!




Chalk eater or not, Game on Dude is 5 for 5 at Santa Anita. 5 of 7 in the money at the distance, Trainer Baffert, a 33% winner at SA, places Bejarano up, and the two have combined for 31% wins in 103 starts over past year at the Great Race Place.

Ron the Greek, and Bill Mott in general, have consistently left me a day late and a dollar short. Raise your hand, who saw Drosselmeyer coming last year? Two brilliant work bullets at BEL after a rare dud in his last outing. A Big Cap winner earlier this year gives him points with me but that field wasn't stellar. This Florida bred has consistently over performed and I'm counting him in here.

I love Richard's Kid. I'm shocked that he's 7 already. I hated what amounted to a lost year in Dubai but not my choice. I hated him getting yanked from Baffert, but again, not my choice. 3 of 4 in the money at SA, 5 of 11 in the money at the distance, 10 of 13 in the money over fast dirt, a strong late closer and I like how Trainer O'Neil has him going at 6f. I may be irrationally inflating his chances, but I like him in the top 5.

Nonios has been smokin' in the morning: :46 2/5ths at SA this week. No dirt wins, no wins at the distance and no SA wins for the 3 YO, and Pedroza and Hollendorfer are 4% winners together at SA. Ugh. I like his last race, I think he's on the upswing and I'm looking for value.

Flat Out was my pick last year. His last two wins were at Belmont. He's won at the distance twice, is a two million dollar earner, and he deserves exotic respect: 6 place or shows in last 13 and 9 of last 13 in the money.

Pool Play, the Hawthorne Gold Cup winner, 7 year old millionaire hard knocker. Strong late kick and I think he hits the ticket when it's said and done.

I tossed Brilliant Speed and Handsome Mike completely. If I get burned it will be by the group of Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve. This is an expensive bet and you have to make choices on who you cover, hard choices.

My bet is laid out with three options and displayed at $1 and $2 dollar investments. Who and how much you bet is your business, but invest responsibly. This is a hard bet to hit, so scale the base handicap back to Superfecta or Trifecta to increase your chances of not making a big pile of money get suddenly smaller. For those about to rock, we salute you.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Homework: The Classic



2008 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita minus the fake dirt

The Turk likes to start his homework with a video review of key races.  With today's release of Breeders' Cup PP's, its time to get down to work!

I'll be blunt;  I want to win a huge stack of money on Breeders' Cup weekend.  I think the field sizes and the lack of overwhelming class leaves the opportunity wide open. 

I like to start with the Classic and work backward.  Anyone who knows me knows I don't bother with two year olds.  I'm going to stick with what I know.  I may be an East Coast guy but I played Santa Anita heavy all year for a reason: I wanted to have a feel for the dirt here and I wanted to feel like a Great Race Place insider.  Check that box, I've played and played well the fast dirt and I'm feelin' it.  I've taken some time off the past weeks to recharge my batteries.  All in time now folks.

Let's get after it.

1 1/8 Mile Pennsylvania Derby Grade 2;  Dirt fast track;  Handsome Mike (86); Macho Macho, Golden Ticket

:49 1/5; 1:14; 1:38 4/5; 1:51 3/5

 1 1/4 Mile Travers Stakes Grade 1; Dirt fast track; Golden Ticket/Alpha (100) DH; Fast Falcon

:48; 1:12 3/5; 1:37 1/5; 2:02 3/5

1 1/4 Mile Jockey Gold Cup Grade 1;  Dirt good track; Flat Out (109); Stay Thirsty; Fort Larned

:47 1/5; 1:11 4/5; 1:36 2/5; 2:01 2/5

1 1/8 Mile Awesome Again Grade 1 @ SA; Dirt fast track;  Game on Dude (109); Nonios; Richard's Kid

:48; 1:11 4/5; 1:36 1/5; 1:48 4/5;

1 1/4 Mile Pacific Classic Grade 1; fake Del Mar dirt; Dullahan (110); Game on Dude; Richard's Kid

:46 4/5; 1:11; 1:35 1/5; 1:59 2/5

1 1/4 Mile Hawthorne Gold Cup Grade 2; Dirt fast track; Pool Play (101); Cease; Eldaafer

:49 2/5; 1:13 4/5; 1:40 1/5: 2:06 1/5

1 1/8 Mile Beldame Grade 1; Dirt good track; Royal Delta (106)

:46 3/5; 1:10; 1:35; 1:48 4/5

1 1/8 Mile Woodward Stakes Grade 1; Dirt fast track; To Honor and Serve (105); Mucho Macho Man

:47 2/5; 1:10 4/5; 1:35 3/5; 1:48 2/5

1 1/8 Mile Whitney Grade 1; Dirt fast track; Fort Larned (108); Ron the Greek; Flat Out

:46 4/5; 1:10 4/5; 1:34 4/5; 1:47 3/5

The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park

The Turk would like to thank the fine folks at The Thorfan and the Handicappers Corner for the privilege of throwing darts against the wall, errr, handicapping this weekend's Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park.

The Turk loves the handicap division because the richness of information over several seasons that unfolds on the past performances stirs the mathematical intrigue in me. Horse racing for me is a two for one value; I get jazzed by the handicapping and the gambling, especially when I win, but I'm also able to put aside the money side of things and just be a super fan. Like everyone, I dream of the next Triple Crown winner, and I honor the eleven previous winners, but it's the older runners on the dirt and the turf that really do it for me. Last year was a bit lean on returning heroes and it's time that the cupboard gets restocked with superstars older than 3 years old.

There are some great minds on this internet-thingy handicapping: The Handicappers Corner, The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and Turf: An International Gathering of Horse Racing Bloggers are great places to go and bounce your own thoughts off of people who are right pretty often. I believe strongly in building handicaps without outside influence, so I really hope you have already built your handicap and you are just using this to gage your own thinking.

I was musing the other night that my own racing year mirrors the handicapping division: I shutdown after the Clark Handicap, I go to the farm (OK Chipolte's and the corner bar) and just chill until early January, I show back up in Florida and start running again, getting my stride up before taking another break in May, only to pick it up around Saratoga/Haskell time and making the strong run back to the Breeders' Cup. Turk buddy, what the heck are you talking about? I'm sayin' that I'm rusty in the handicapping and I've been resting my red pen since the Clark, just like some of these runners have been resting since that same race. If I graphed my ROI, which I do, I'm at my absolute best at the end of the season when the horses are a pretty known quantity and my handicapped skill is at its proverbial "3rd race after a layoff" best. I ain't there yet but let's take a swing at this race anyway.

Gulfstream Park Race 10: The Donn Handicap



One problem with being an internet hack handicapper is exposing your thoughts before you have enough information. Without blogging I'd have my base handicap for the Donn done on Friday night but my bet strategy would be formed once the track conditions and scratches and changes
firmed up. I also like to stare at the tote board for as long as possible to make sure my superfecta investment makes sense. Perhaps the worst feeling I know is "investing" $50 to make $30. The weather at Gulfstream this weekend looks like it has the possibility to continue to be inclement, and I've built my base handicap with a slant towards slop.

So where am I coming from? Flat Out has four progressively decreasing Beyer races in a row. He looked like a horse that needed a break after the Clark Handicap, but many Breeders' Cup combatants put in dull efforts in thier first races back. Trainer Dickey got a turf effort in for God only knows what reason except possibly to increase sire value, or he just couldn't find a better spot in the conditions book. I dunno, seems like an Allowance race over dirt and 1 1/16 would have been better but the point is he got work in and this is his second effort off a 45-180 day layoff. Surely Turk that's a winning angle? 0% for Dickey but only his 5th try. Jock Solis is just a 6% winner at Gulfstream. On the positive side, I liked his slop effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he is a bit sharper race wise than some of his cohorts, at some point I have to believe he reverses course and returns to form. This weekend would be a good time!

Dick Dutrow, not my favorite trainer but a solid horseman nonetheless, brings in Trickmeister, 5 wins in 5 starts lifetime at age 5 after beating up on shoulda, coulda, woulda types like Our Dark Knight. Ramon Dominguez and Trainer Dutrow combine for 32% wins and the son of Proud Citizen has been sharpening up over the Gulfstream Park track since New Years Eve. I want to be careful he's not too high on the toteboard but I will cover him in all four spots in my Superfecta.

The presumptive bettor's chalk will be Shackleford. I love the horse but there are red flags; winless since The Preakness, before that an N1X. A loser to Coil at the Haskell by a neck and trounced at the Travers, a loser to Wilburn at the Indiana Derby, only to choke to Caleb's Posse in the Dirt Mile. I am tickled pink to see him back and excited for Dale Romans and his barn, but I am concerned. He's a tepid B for me, Top Four on expectations and class.

Ruler on Ice, the Belmont winning gelded four year old son of Roman Ruler, is back for popular trainer, Kelley Breen who places Rosie Napravnik up. Also resting since The Clark, some very impressive bullets at 4 and 5 furlongs and a very solid resume on slop may make me reconsider and move him further up the handicap.

Soaring Empire and Redeemed will round out my top six Superfecta candidates. Soaring Empire is more of a one turn specialist and he enters off a disappointing 6th in the Hal's Hope after winning in 2011. I like the 5 YO an awful lot and I am very interested in seeing how he goes over the slop. He does own the best Tomlinson (453) over the muck. Redeemed is Dick Dutrow's other runner who is taking a jump up in class but is worth a look. The one that could make me look stooooopid is Hymn Book, but then again, a son of Arch, ridden by Johnny V for Shug McGaughey is just screaming to not be ignored. You can't cover everyone and you'll go broke tryin; build your handicap and bets with an eye towards the bottom line.

I'm going to assemble a Superfecta that approximates my base handicap. If I don't like what I see on the tote board or if more than just Al Khali scratches (I'm going to guess he does)I may retrench to a Trifecta just to keep my action reasonable and in line with where I feel my handicappers touch is right now, which is, well, "1st effort off a 60-180 day layoff".

Also, sorry for the gratuitous $6,000 dollar pile of winnings on my desk. I'm stroking my bad motherf**ker handicapper mojo back up, just like a trainer takes a horse out for a nice blow before a big race. It's my "It's Britney, Bitch" moment.

Great talking to you friends. Enjoy the races, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 25 November 2011: The Clark Handicap Grade 1

The reason I perform post race analysis is to learn what I did right and wrong. A successful bet is a three part process: I handicap the race and create a base handicap. My Base Handicap orders the horses, similar to a morning line, except I assign letter grades, and any horse B- or above is considered for Superfecta. I watch the live tote board right up to the moment I must place the bet. My base handicap is built devoid of considerations of value, underlays or overlays, and I will "reorder" slightly depending on relative values when it makes sense. My Bet Construction consists of several patterns I generally follow, i.e. "box the top five", "single the top horse and box the bottom 4", " Box the top four and include more horses in the 4th spot". I like to build consistent bets and I like to bet consistent amounts. Adding consistency takes away unnecessary thoughts in the minutes leading to post. Those three items are all key to my methods and drive my success and my failures.

I left $5,900 on the table yesterday when I screwed up my bet construction after nailing the base handicap cold. Cold. I had three horses, all listed as "A". Frequently my base handicaps are misunderstood as being an exact order of finish. I'm more jaded and cynical than that! I had three runners (Mission Impazzible, Flat Out and Wise Dan) in Blue and all Three were listed as A. In my base handicap, any one of them could finish in first. That doesn't happen often but as I said, I was torn yesterday and whomever was my chalk, it was a tepid 7-2 at best. But consider this: If there was a Super High Five, I had the top five out of 13 identified and ready to be boxed. All I needed to do yesterday was box my top five and I had the Superfecta. Why didn't I?

I could make excuses and rationalize but the bottom line is I didn't trust in my base handicap enough. I said it in my writeup. I broke one of my key rules, build the handicap and trust the handicap, and bet the handicap. The top 5 boxed for $2 is $240 bet. If you play ten of these and lose all ten you'd be out $2,400, but it only takes one like yesterday to post a 50% ROI. By keeping post race analysis I know I'm clipping away at nearly 4 out of ten Superfectas in the past 6 months. I broke my consistent betting rule and I left a nice score on the table (it also helps to know I am much better from August to November than I am January through July. Why? Better information on the PP's).

Let's analyze and take some positives out of this self imposed self mutilation moment.



The key yesterday was I expected the Breeders' Cup runners to regress. You sharpen the point of the spear to be ready on the day of the $6.0 million dollar race, not the $500,000 race. Those horses were primed for maximum effort on November 5th. They are ready for the farm. On class alone they ran better than most of the field but this is a common angle you can use every November from now until forever, these Breeders' Cup bounce horses will attract money and these horses will fail to fire.

I liked that I backed Mission Impazzible. I questioned pre race where the pace would come from except Will's Wildcat and not surprisingly Will's Wildcat struck the front and Mission Impazzible set up in stalk. I liked Mister Marti Gras, not something I can say has ever happened before. I liked the Ack Ack, I liked where he was at in 2011 and I liked Trainer Block and the cards he's playing that seem to be aces.

That's the handicap in a nutshell: I discounted Prayers for Relief and Headache, I had Ruler on Ice lower than the tote board ranking and I wasn't sold that Flat Out would be any better than he was three weeks ago and he wasn't, while at the same time expecting Mission Impazzible and Mister Marti Gras to hit the winning tickets.

What I got wrong was not betting my time honored method when I'm unsure; I trust my handicap and box five to get four or I box four to get three. I left money on the table. The realist me knows that will happen. The practical me knows that I have to minimize that by following my methods. The competitive me is pissed off because I love nothing more than to beat the game. The blogger in me doesn't mind so much because it gives me an opportunity to write about failure and how analysis and failure grouped together can really drive your forward in the bad times. The sensitive and emotionally fragile me? Doesn't exist, sorry.

Another time honored method I won't fall into is placing Wise Dan on too high a pedestal. Sure on paper he beat a realy nice 13 horse field convincingly, and he's had a nice campaign on lots of surfaces, but I'll look to beat him next time out. That's what the bettor in me does, ignores the hype. The fan in me was pretty thrilled with the race but not thrilled enough to get to into the Horse of the Year discussions: Too many have a minor share in that prize and I get the feeling it will be a popularity vote that deciedes this Eclipse Award, not that they let this idiot internet hack vote.

I am not a computer, I make mistakes. Consistency over a long period of time is the only real way to measure success and failure. The cathartic nature of blogging is that I can admit my failure and move on. I'll let this one go and regroup to make a stack of bills on the next one.

Have fun friends, Happy Thanksgiving, Turk(ey) Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic-Part 2

Last week we took an initial look at the Breeders' Cup Classic contenders, and now that we have a bit more information as to who may be in the starting gate it seems like the right time to circle back. As to not make you go back to hunt for Part 1, I'll tack it on the end or you can get to it from here.

We've got 12 athletes to study. I've already determined that I am hunting for the Super Hi Five and the Superfecta in this race so my layer handicapping approach will integrate my betting strategy as well. You just can't box your way to Super Hi Five success, well you can, but it would be pricey; Taking the top 7 and boxing them on a $1 bet would cost you $2,520. Now, this Super High Five, unless its wildly chalky, should pay more than double that and if it paid 10-20 times more than that i wouldn't be surprised. That said, boxing is out for The Turk, I want this win badly but I also want it old school cool too, as few combinations as I can. I'll employ a matrix betting structure. I could for example use 8 horses with 4 over 4 Over 5 Over 5 Over 5 for $562. We got options, let's not sweat that yet!

Await the Dawn is a Kentucky bred 4 year old son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Aidan O'Brien, wearing the silks of Tabor and Magnier, the silks I see when I close my eyes and think of Rags to Riches.

No dirt racing in his past and no races at the classic distance but he has run very well going left. Here he is going right in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2), 1 1/2 Miles over soft turf. In this article, O'Brien makes no bones about his desire for a Breeders' Cup Classic win.



Drosselmeyer is a four year old son of Distorted Humor, trained by Bill Mott. He posted a career best 104 Beyer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over the slop in October, looked out of place in the 12 panel Sword Dancer before that over grass, and was a beaten chalk at 12 panels over the dirt in Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont, the track of his greatest victory. Actually since winning the Belmont Stakes in 2010 he's only won one race, the 60K One Count at the classic distance at Belmont in May of this year.

Working well at Churchill Downs this week.

2nd in Jockey Club Gold Cup



Gio Ponti is cross entered here as well as the Mile. No Dirt efforts and no wins at this distance. 1 win in five starts in 2011.

Headache is a Michael Maker trainee that comes in off a Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) win at 1 1/4 miles over fast dirt. 14 of 18 in the money over fast dirt with 8 wins and 3 of 3 in the money at 10 furlongs with 1 win. The five year old son of Tapit comes in sharp.

Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) 8 October 2011



Working in traffic in the Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1) 6 August 2011



Winning Cornhusker Handicap (G3) 25 June 2011



Prayers for Relief is a 3 YO Zayat Stables runner trained by Bob Baffert. 3 wins in 4 fast dirt starts and 4 of 4 in the money, with no attempts at the distance and a lifetime best 98 Beyer. Winner of Iowa Derby (G3), West Virginia Derby (G2), The Super Derby (G2)and a beaten chalk in the Oklahoma Derby 400K. Put up a bullet :46 3/5ths for 4f at SA this past week.

The Super Derby (G2)



The Oklahoma Derby, Bejarano had the rail at the top of the stretch, swung him outside and got up for show.



Rattlesnake Bridge is another three year old son of Tapit trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Comes in off Pennsylvania Derby (G2), a flattened out run and a well beaten Show to To Honor and Serve and Ruler on Ice.



Rattlesnake Bridge is 5 of 5 in the money on fast dirt with 2 wins and has only tried the classic distance once.

Both Ruler on Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge ran the Travers (G1) as well, losing to Stay Thirsty.



Ruler on Ice has only run the Classic Distance once, has only one win in seven tries over fast dirt but did pull off a shocking Belmont Stakes (G1) win at 24.75-1 odds.

Ice Box won the Florida Derby (G1)in March 2010, was Place to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby and has done awfully little since then, but he ran pretty darn good at Churchill Downs last year at this distance, we shouldn't forget that, Nick Zito hasn't.

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon. And it's unfortunate, but Tiznow won't be joining us in Louisville.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



I'd be remiss to not say congratulations to The Little Turk. After six years of practicing two and three times a week he earned his Black Belt in Bushido Kai. Way to Go Little Buddy, we are all proud of our grifter in training.



Turk Out!

Breeders' Cup Handicappers Homework: The Classic

That's Kay, the Turk Family Weimaraner, getting her Breeders' Cup handicappers homework in. We've studied some of the contenders for the Turf in our last post and today we will look at the Classic.

I'm not sure my first emotion when I look at the contenders for the Classic. Underwhelmed? Disappointed? I dunno. Sure it's exciting the idea of a filly, Harve de Grace, as a serious contender, and the idea of Uncle Mo returning to Churchill Downs where he won the Juvenile a year ago and seemingly was a Triple Crown threat that never materialized (The Timely Writer?....nice move), but the rest of the field is really lacking star power, or is it?

I've been asked to handicap this race for the Thorofan Handicappers Corner. I was honored to be chosen to handicap such a prestigious race by one of my favorite horse racing organizations so I am hopeful that I can identify someone that can come here and win as an overlay. I'm going to try and set aside the "fan" in me and take a strong look at the expected entries and see who is peaking at the right time.

Let's Get after it!

Can anyone possibly make their first dirt start and win the Breeders' Cup Classic? Can anyone make their first dirt start in the Kentucky Derby and win that? Well, Animal Kingdom did just that this year. He wanted the distance and he was a superior athlete in comparison to his competition.

Oh Turk, horse racing has a long history, it can't possible happen twice in the same year at the same track? I don't know, we've seen a filly win the Belmont for the first time since 1905, a filly win the Preakness for the first time since 1924, two fillies win the Woodward.

So You Think is a Coolmore runner trained by Aidan O'Brien. The High Chaparral(Ire)son (yes, two time Breeders' Cup Turf champion) seems like the sort of horse that could start on dirt for the first time and gobble up the distance.

2000 M.(~ 10 furlongs) Moresbridge Stakes



2000 M. (~10 furlongs) Prince of Wale Stakes rest in peace Rewilding



Irish Champion Stakes



15 October 2011 10f British Championship Stakes



Some nice effort in all these races for So You Think. Strange days indeed.

Tizway when healthy, is a dominant handicap division runner who should need no introduction. His trainer James Bond is confident. Interestingly, Trainer Bond thinks Flat Out is the horse to beat. We'll get to him soon.



2011 Met Mile



2011 Whitney Stakes at 9 furlongs



Tizway, the son of Tiznow, will be my emotional chalk for the Classic, but it's not like he isn't talented enough to pull it off. The reports of his work at Belmont, where he shipped in to run over a faster strip of dirt, have been excellent.

Flat Out has been dazzling, with last three Beyers 107,109 and 106.

2011 Suburban H. with Flat Out in a powerful five wide move at top of stretch to win by 6 lengths.



2011 Jockey Gold Cup



2011 Woodward Stakes with Harve de Grace by a length over Flat Out



Flat Out has been training sharply for his conditioner Scooter Dickey over the Churchill Downs surface.

To Honor and Serve was highly thought of by the members of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Poll at the beginning of his 3 YO season.

Injuries, perhaps from some tough efforts at Gulfstream early in the year, put the son of Bernardini on the shelf.

But after being brought back slowly over the Saratoga season, even tried as a sprinter, To Honor and Serve fired off a freakish effort that highlighted his talent setting a stakes record time over a fast PARX track.

9f The Pensylvania Derby



This Optional Claimer/High End Allowance race at Saratoga was a very nice effort at 9 furlongs as well.



Stay Thirsty is another son of Bernardini that I did a horrible job judging all year. I was fairly unimpressed with him as a 2 YO (a stupid, closed minded mistake that a horse player cannot make!)but let's review how things turned around for him.

8.5f The Gotham March 2011



I rationalized the Gotham off and he did little after that until the Belmont.

12f The 2011 Belmont Stakes



I rationalized this one off too; Wet track and a perfect rail trip. He did track the pace the whole way around and he made a nice run in the last 1/16th.

...but the Jim Dandy and the Travers can't be ignored (although the fields were pretty soft...rationalizing....)

9f The Jim Dandy



10f The Travers Stakes



I think you just toss the Jockey Club Gold Cup effort but that leaves the Travers as his last good race. Not many reports of sizzling works so we'll be paying attention over the next two weeks for some hype machine comments.

Game On Dude, poor animal, not exactly a regal sounding name he was, ummm, saddled with. Luckily, were professional horse players, we don't let names influence us. Never. Maybe a little.

The Turk's favorite trainer, Bob Baffert, really got a great game effort from Game On Dude over the Santa Anita dirt strip this year, a Santa Anita main track he's 3 for 3 on this year.

The 9f Goodwood Stakes



...and a bit of a shocker in the Big Cap

10f Santa Anita Handicap



Take a look at this effort of Tizway and Game on Dude.

9f The Charles Town Classic G3, April 2011



Uncle Mo has had quite a journey: I had a 12th picture frame ordered for my wall, the wall that has the 11 Triple Crown winners on it (this is my annual optimism)

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile



..then just a questionable plan put together by Trainer Pletcher that gave him a very long break and then a return to action in a minor stakes race.

Injury/illness kept Uncle Mo on the shelf and the picture frame went back into my drawer. The son of Indian Charlie hasn't been past 8 furlongs since April, only twice in his career, and he's never been to 10f. My fellow blogger, Brock Sheridan at The Brock Talk wrote a nice piece recently about Mo's 220 yard elephant.

Here's the 1 mile Kelso. I'm just not sure how you can take the Super Saturday races and make something from them. Look at nice middle and end and he freaked out an awesome 1:33 and change mile.



Mo's been training sharply accordinging to the Pletcher machine.

Harve de Grace. The daughter of Saint Liam has had just an awesome year. She seems poised to be the chalk for the Classic, something she's deserving of based on her campaign. You wonder if she still has enough in the tank after some pretty tough efforts this year.

2011 Delaware Handicap at 10f was my favorite race of the year so far.



2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff



Another Super Saturday performance I'm not sure you can stake alot on but a win is a win.

The 9f Beldame



The distance....I just don't know, but luckily today isn't about handicapping as much as it is reviewing the body of work that creates a Breeders' Cup Classic Champion.

While the racing may not have been indicative on Super Saturday, the commentary and insights of the E Train, Ernie Munick are always spot on



Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 3 September 2011: The All Graded Stakes Pick 3 at Saratoga

Do you remember where you were on August 22, 2006? When the news of Horse of the Year Saint Liam dying in a paddock accident broke I was in an airport flying West on business. I couldn't shake from my mind the fuchsia and teal silks, Jerry Bailey up. There is a sadness that comes with this sport you just have to accept. Rest in Peace Saint Liam. Thanks to Tiznow Tim for use of the photo.

Havre de Grace, the four year old daughter of Saint Liam , made it look too easy yesterday. It was a confident run against a good field and she had more in the tank at the end than anyone else. It reaffirmed by feeling that our American fillies and mares are the best runners we have, the most exciting, and right now, the most gutty. It makes me appreciate Blind Luck a whole lot too as she wins yesterday if she was the won entered.

let's get after it!





Yesterday was a thrilling day as a horse fan, the type of day that doesn't come along very often. I was happy for Larry Jones and Fox Hill Farms, a team that gave me one of my happiest Saratoga memories in the past decade, Hard Spun's Kings Bishop win.

I whiffed on the Pick Three; I didn't want to believe a horse that was claimed in June for $75,000 could win back to back Grade 1 wins but that's exactly what Ask the Moon did winning the Personal Ensign after taking the Ruffian Handicap. Ask the Moon, whose name is now associated forever with Ruffian and Personal Ensign. That would make a good movie script!

The Forego made me sad for Sidney's Candy. Previously trained by John Sadler before being sold to WinStar, the four year old Candy Ride is a turf runner but with Trainer Pletcher at the helm he was switched to the dirt here. i don't mind seeing a horse given an opportunity to take down $750,000, but I wasn't thrilled with how Quality Road's career was managed and I don't see a real campaign being charted for Sidney's Candy either. I respected Sidney's Candy enough to cover him but I wasn't shocked at the dull effort and i was shocked that he was the chalk. I hit the Superfecta and I almost didn't without my late insertion of Aikenite into both Show and 4th. He was really closing at the end.

The betting public had The Woodward cold. The order of finish by ranking on the toteboard? 1,2,3,5,4,6,7,8. I hit a $125 Superfecta on a $54 dollar ticket. Pedestrian, not sexy, but cash is cash. The day I start getting disappointed that I only netted $470 for 3 hours work is the day I'll toss my red gel pens in the river.

With Saratoga and Del Mar ending many casual horse racing fans turn their attention to the NFL, baseball playoffs, college football, etc. I'd urge the new readers I've picked up here at the Turk over the past two months to give the sport a chance to keep you hooked. The Stakes Schedule is full of great races and betting opportunities. Even if you only focus on Saturday racing, which most of the time its all the Turk has time for anyhow, you can continue your handicapping skills and stay engaged with the game. I'm expecting Breeders' Cup 2011 to offer some incredible betting opportunities. Stay sharp friends.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis for Raceday 6 August 2011: The Grade 1 Test and Whitney as part of the Saratoga Late Pick 3

Suck or blow? When you work around large machines like I have my whole working career, this is the sort of discussion that starts theoretical: It takes less energy to draw a a material in the gaseous state through equipment with a slightly negative vacuum then it does to push the same gaseous solution through by blowing it under a slight positive pressure. After the discussion on mechanical and electro-hydraulic systems concludes the subject often turns crudely sexual, but that's a topic for a different blog. In horse racing, if you "blow" or "suck" I reckon it doesn't really matter as your tickets will be worthless regardless.

And speaking of losing tickets, what do you do with yours? When I just feel like people watching, I'll hang out at the track and after the results go final I take great pleasure in watching people celebrate as well as go into fits of despair. The poor tickets are either venerated to holy status or they are ripped, shredded, thrown, burned, etc etc etc. Me personally, I can't have negative vibe tickets on my person, they are thrown away immediately, which brings me to the story of the young Asian male at Churchill Downs sitting on the floor during Breeders' Cup Friday digging through a garbage can frantically looking at tickets amongst the filth, but that too is another story for another day.

The Turk is a big boy: I love talking about my wins, and I feel good enough about my decent skills as a handicapper to talk about the train wrecks. The Test was not a horrible handicap for me, I missed on Roman Treasure and it's hard to anticipate American Lady getting pulled up.

I plain sucked and/or blow'd with the Whitney Handicap. I knew it was a challenging field, but ugh, I didn't intentionally try to pick the finish in reverse order.

Anyhow, the carnage via spreadsheet is ugly:

Saratoga Race 9-10-11






So first of all, wow, Turbulant Descent. I may live in the Eastern United States, but I pay close attention to California racing and I knew this filly was special, bust she made a mockery of this field. Perhaps if Savvy Supreme, who was scratched, puts some pressure on Roman Treasure and Ramon and the pace was a bit hotter but....let's cut that loser talk off at the knees right now: The Test field was no match for Turbulent Descent.

My handicap was based on value and the hope that Turbulent Descent would not like the going. I knew no matter what she'd be top three and I backed a pretty fine filly, Pomeroys Pistol and I liked American Lady as well. I'm not as bullish on Her Smile, but her Prioress was honest.

Where do I start with the Whitney? Tizway was 1 of 8 with only 3 in the money finishes at the distance. He does have a tendency to run three race sequences and his first race back is generally a three digit Beyer. He was also training sharply at Saratoga since late June. The six year old now has 7 wins in 20 starts and is 13 of 20 in the money. Where will he point next? The Kelso like last year to prep for the Breeders' Cup Mile or is he main event? I'm thinking main event baby.

Flat Out was 1 of 3 at the distance before yesterday but had 4 wins of 9 starts over fast dirt. I disliked the post draw but I liked the bullets he's been churning out at Monmouth and the Suburban at 1 1/8 miles to pay $13.60 was artistic. The lightly raced five year old son of Flatter is now 6 of 10 lifetime in the money.

I've been a Giant Oak fan a long time but I thought he was no better than an exotic with this field; 2 wins in now 16 fast dirt starts and 2 wins in 10 tries at this distance and only 1 win, The Grade 1 Donn in last 11 tries. He's been training sharp and as expected he closed like a freight train.

Friend or Foe was a colt I was conflicted on pre race: A NY bred 4 YO who was winless in two tries at SAR, but 5 of 8 on fast dirt and he's beaten Rail Trip, Convocation, Ichabad Crane and Ibboyee to name some. He ran respectable in last year's Jim Dandy and Travers and he's had three straight 100+ Beyer's. Respect earned.

Headache I was high on. A morning line 20-1, I thought he had a very good chance to be top four. The 5 YO gelding ran well in the tight Prairie Medows turns and I thought he'd sneak up a bit higher. Trainer Maker has every reason to be proud of him and he didn't disappoint yesterday.

The text on the race charts is often terse but effective. Mission Impazzible "...no rally". I've never been that high on Mission Impazzible and I had him higher yesterday than the fan in me liked, but I'm a handicapper,not a fanboy, and that's why I'm in a foul mood over him. Pletcher's charge is just good enough to tease you.

Rail Trip "...lacked the necessary response". Yup. Trainer Dutrow doesn't seem to be doing too well with the six year old gelding whom I've been a big fan of since Santa Anita Derby Day 2009 and the Santana Mile.

Rodman and Prado fought quite a bit and it just wasn't his day. Apart is no Blame.

Duke of Mischief , ugh. "....but was through after completing three quarters". I took a chance he'd roll from the outside, it didn't happen.

Morning Line? The son of Tiznow was right there and then nothing.

Horse racing, love it!

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Chicago Handicap at Arlington Park and a Post Race Analysis of Graded Stakes Grab Bag

The Turk likes to take time to celebrate the little steps along the long road of life and The Turk and Little Turk have reached a milestone, 400 Blog Posts.

In the big picture those 400 Blog Posts didn't add anything to society but they did do wonderful things for me personally: I've met some truly interesting people and I have acquaintances and friends I can meet at all the major tracks around the country when I'm looking to enjoy a social moment and not just a hard core degenerate betting experience. Before the blog, before Facebook, Twitter, the web, I was alone in the horse racing experience, buying the form and placing my bets. The world spilled wide open and it was satori to realize that like minded people all over the country existed. The Turk and the Little Turk started as a simple outlet to post the 3H's: Horses, handicapping and our personal hijinks's. We've kept our simple approach and we have no intention of being anything other than what we currently are.

Thank you all for reading!

I enjoyed the smorgasbord of racing I handicapped yesterday, even if after I handicapped I felt that it was a pretty uninspiring collection of betting races, as the fields were a bit small and, quite honestly, I had no feel for a few of them. The best handicap and potentially the best bet I would have made was the Superfecta on the United Nations, powered by Teaks North finishing on top.

I'm in full blown 4th of July weekend relaxation mode; I always thought this would be the best weekend for the Millions preview at Arlington but the folks there think differently. As much as I love to handicap the grass at Arlington, I pretty much have had extremely mixed results handicapping the fake dirt there over the past two years. Today I take a swing at The Chicago Handicap, a seven furlong affair for Fillies and Mares, with my only real objective being to play the card and get a feel for the surface again.

Let's recap yesterday briefly and get to today's Chicago Handicap.



The Dwyer



The Suburban Handicap



The Shoemaker Mile



The Triple Bend Handicap



Everyone should have their own style of handicapping and betting; mine is to handicap, without morning lines or any pre race hype news articles, and then build a bet strategy after that. One downside is I often handicap races that have little to offer as betting opportunities to make cash at, but if you study the Past Performances, the Race Chart and the video, the effort is seldom wasted. Dominus was allowed to go through easy fractions in a yawner of a Dwyer. We wondered aloud where the pace would come from pre race and it never really came. With the scratch of Rocking Out the field dropped to six, the super option went away and this became a race to watch and keep the wallet in the pocket. We did have Adios Charlie finishing in Place. I keep stats for myself, which I don't bore you folks with, of my base handicaps that are contrarian to heavy chalk. Even without betting I take something away from this race and we move along.

In Race 10, The Suburban Handicap, I must admit that this field left me perplexed. In the history of my 400 blog postings I'm not sure I ever put up a handicap where I didn't toss someone, anyone. I had no intention of betting this race and I didn't and I'm glad as I would have never bet Flat Out. I was impressed by Hymn Book, who I discounted, but the bettors didn't, off the strong last race off the turf effort beating I Want Revenge (which use to mean something, but I am confused by what distance Rodman is best suited for because I dunno.

There is no bragging, ever, from the Turk. I keep to a strong code and bragging is prohibited. The closest I may ever come to bragging will be to describe what i do well as a handicapper. The United Nations is the text book superfecta win I assemble pretty regularly. A nice 10 horse field with a very clear line between who will be in the top 5 and who wouldn't be. Teaks North past performance had a bullet handride 4f :47 effort and a Grade 3 96 Beyer win effort at Monmouth on June 12th. I disliked the lack of wins at the distance but I made note of the 3 of 3 on Monmouth turf and 4 wins in nine tries on Turf. Nice win but I expected a top four finish, not exactly a win spot. The others just slotted in and the super paid $377. I call those workmanlike, not sexy.

The two Hollywood Park races I passed on as well and we'll just leave it to the video to tell those stories.

I handicap many more races than I could possibly blog. I'll handicap the whole Arlington card today and I'll start handicapping Arlington more over the next several weeks as I target Millions Preview Day and Millions Day. A fairly even collection of fillies and mares will contest today's Chicago Handicap. Florida Bred Hooh Why is is lifetime money winner as well as the high Beyer on fake dirt. The 5 Yo mare comes in off an N3X win at 7f on the AP fake stuff in mid June, but some 25 Beyer points lower than her lifetime best. Tidal Pool brings some name recognition and a 0-60 Graded Stakes streak in for D. Wayne Lukas. Dr. Zic competes almost exclusively in graded stakes action but doesn't win much; a nice Grade I at KEE in April 2010 seems along time ago now. Devil By Design is coming off a very long layoff, something Bill Mott wins 16% of the time. The 5 YO Medeglia d'Oro daughter hasn't done much in 11 months. La Rocca is with trainer Michael Stidham for the first time, a 22% win angle but he puts Martinez and his 10% win rate instead of Napravnik and her 21% win clip, whom he has up on his other entrant, Lookn Even Finer, who switches from turf/synth at a 24% clip and 23% winner off the fillies last race win. the former claimer is starting to grow on me.

Who did I miss? Illinois Bred Home's the Best ran a nice 93 Beyer at 1 1/8 miles over the fake AP dirt in late May and Hot Hot Mama doesn't have much but her name to excite me.

I handicapped and I'll watch to see how it all flops out. Have a good holiday weekend.

Turk Out!