The Nomination Is In: The Presque Isle Downs Mile

I'll be the first to say it, I hate the way Presque Isle Downs changed their big weekend around. In years past, this race came on Friday Night, with Saturday Night being the Masters. This year? They put this race up against the home opener of the Buffalo Bills,  Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Really? Tomorrow's game goes up against the first Monday Night Football game of the year, Really? Is this about your simulcasting revenue or actual fans in the seats?


I question if racinos like PID really do care about horse racing fans. For the past few years I've talked up PID and I talked up the savvy of having their big weekend the first weekend after Saratoga closes. They lost all that good will with this years scheduling AND their pathetic website which doesn't feel at all like horse racing actually happens at this track or that Groupie Doll is coming.  Do they know who Groupie Doll is?  Do they care?  Rosie Napravnik is coming.  Do they know that Rosie is an exciting rider and fan favorite?  Do they care?  Is that crickets or the sound of old people pulling slot handles.





This race is WIDE OPEN.  Wide open, after I think Hogy. Wayne Catalano wins 22% off the turf to fake dirt switch and a Grade 3 winner on fake stuff in late May.  Expect to watch him press pace before winning by a few lengths.

Beneath Hogy there is real value to be found.  Name recognition will bring dollars to Gourmet Dinner, Photo Shoot and Ponzi Scheme but I'm leaning in a few different directions in a completely speculative manner.  I like the current form of Whatthecatdrugin; it's a minor step up in class for the 6 YO gelding with $252,000 in career earnings but likes the fake dirt and will go fast to the front and try to wire it.  I'm expecting in top four.

Alpha Bettor/Awesome Overture/ Occasional View and Super Chunky is a blanket finish on paper;      Alpha Bettor is a Grade 3 and Grade 2 winner in past three races.  A nice :47 1/5th 4F bullet at WO in early September.  A serious win challenger but I'm going to slot him 2-3 or 4.

Awesome Overture is a lightly raced 4 YO Awesome Again son.  Nice run in Grade 2 Seagram Cup at WO.  Class but results not there yet.  2-3-4-5 seems to be the slot.

Graham Motion/Augustin Stables Occasional View also steps up in class but has nice N3X with at PID on July 4.  2-3-4-5 seems reasonable and win wouldn't shock me with real value north of 10 to 1 possible.

Super Chunky upon further review is no better than 4th or 5th here and I'm going to drop him back and insert someone from the next group Hoofit, Gourmet Dinner or Ponzi Scheme.  Hoofit, with Edgar Prado up for Graham Motion, hasn't won in over 11 races but he's come close lately and if forced to pick, I'm taking him for the 3-4- and 5 spot.

10 cent Supers and 50 Cent Trifectas are on the menu and this is a race worth swinging for the fences at.

Have fun friends, even if PID could have made it funner.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: January 30, 2011: The Holy Bull Grade III at Gulfstream

That handsome fella who is enjoying his retirement is none other than the 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull. A Travers Stakes, Woodward Stakes, a Florida Derby and a Haskell is often enough to win such awards. Injured in the Donn Handicap as a 4 YO, he went on to become an influential sire to such notables as Giacomo and Macho Uno, sire of today's contestant, Mucho Macho Man.

The Turk enjoyed handicapping this race as we have a nice field size of nine and an interesting collection of runners with parity between most of them and a clear cut chalk difficult to name. Early on I decided I'd go Superfecta hunting and not worry about who will win exclusively. Let's get after it!

Gulfstream Park Race 10 The Grade III Holy Bull: Post Time 5:26 ET



As always, sit down and check the weather, scratches and changes and track condition. Skip the BS articles at DRF and on the internet and by all means ignore the morning lines: Take a mind of freshness into the handicapping process, unfettered by others opinions, there is time for that later.

The weather should be fine, with a chance of light rain mid day, and the track should be fast.

Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man will attract alot of betting dollars and should be 1-2 with the bettors. As its early in the 3 YO season, all of the runners have questions to answer, so when you scan the PPs the picture won't always be crystal clear and that is where experience and luck help. Gourmet Dinner laid an egg last time out, going to plastic in the Grade ICash Call Futurity. Before that he was 4 of 4 in the money on dirt with three wins and already $869,660 in purse money fueled by the win in the Delta Downs Jackpot Grade III.

Mucho Macho Man, son of Macho Uno and Grandson of Holy Bull, is off after a long layoff, something Trainer Kathy Ritvo didn't do well at all over past year, and she also seeks to erase the 0% Graded Stake stat she is carting around. On a four race progression of improving Beyers and off a 99 BSF effort at 1 1/8 on fast dirt at the Big A. Training very well at GP beating 120 horses over 3 workouts at 5f, all around :59 even. Only 1 win to show for 5 efforts. I think he is very strong but want to see an effort today.

Dialed In may be the best of the bunch but he's only making his second start for Trainer Zito. The son of Mineshaft has been working very strong at 4F .

I'm backing Black N Beauty as my tepid chalk. Trainer Dale Romans brings the Devil His Due sired runner in fresh off a 1 mile winning effort at GP on 7 January and I'm taking a leap of faith regarding where he is in his form compared to the others.

I built a superfecta matrix and sufficiently covered how I think the race could unfold. I expect Black N Beauty will strike the lead at some point, perhaps early, and it will come down to if the stalkers can overtake. I backed Major Gain Printing Press and Leave of Absence for minor awards and off all of them I feel like I'm discounting Printing Press at my possible peril. I can't promise I won't cover Printing Press and 3 and 4 and to keep cost similar, drop someone else along the way.

Have fun with it, Turk Out! Handheld Turk is handicapping the race as well and the results will be up for him in the post race analysis.