The Nomination Is In: The Grade 1 Cigar Mile at the Big A

Secret Circle:  Photo by Breeders' Cup Ltd

Thanksgiving week is one of my favorite racing weeks of the year.  Obviously not because the weather is ideal, or that there is much left to settle in horse racing prior to year end, but I'm off of work and I force myself to do something other than work for a few days in a row.

My job is very analytic, much like my approach to horse racing.  At work I may spend time thinking about average total costs or marginal costs as they relate to diminishing gains, but it's analytical numbers that help me make the best decisions possible for the physical mechanical equipment I'm charged with running optimally.

In horse racing, and in horse racing blogging, I choose not to bore my readers with the exact analytics I'm employing.  I've read blogs that are very analytical driven and I don't want to be that blogger.  In business at least I can do analysis in hindsight of my decisions and learn something that is typically concrete in nature.  In horse racing, not so much.  You can apply hard fought analytics to these 1,200 pound animals all you like and about the only thing you can be sure of is the overall general horse betting public will still hit 33% winners applying no analytics and if you are honest with yourself, you'll be hard pressed to not incrementally beat that figure.  This blog isn't interested in picking winners primarily, we are building exotic bets, un-boxed, built on a matrix of horse order of finish possibilities.  The goal of my horse racing activity is 0% ROI.  0% Turk, WTF?  Yes, if I were to break even I'd be happy because at this point in my life, I'm not gambling horses for economic profit. Do I want losses?  Absolutely not, Mrs. Turk wouldn't put up with that nonsense.  I'm a positive ROI guy who applies analytic, really statistical and mathematical possibility analysis, to my bet strategy after developing a base handicap of possibilities.

This blog is a reflection of my passion and also my ambivalence to horse racing.  A sport that is teetering on irrelevance, with no real plan forward, while physical capital like Hollywood Race Track is watched to be sold off as scrap, where the beautiful Hialeah can't get thoroughbreds back on the track, where for all but a few days Arlington is irrelevant, I find it hard to care.  It's a defense mechanism not caring because there is almost nothing an individual or a collective group of racing fans can do.  We aren't what drives the sport and we have no voice.  This blog lives because no matter what happens, these animals have been under my skin for almost my entire life and I find true relaxation staring at a past performance.  Why isn't Trackus available at every track?  Why is access to data so expensive and almost off limits to the casual fan? No one person cares enough to move this sport forward.

I digress.  This has never been a popular blog.  It's a labor of love done by The Turk for diminishing numbers of readers.  I can't remember the last time I received a legitimate comment.  Outside of the Triple Crown season, my blogs numbers are putrid.  I leave the deep issues for others and I will continue to do what I do, not because I give a hoot about web traffic, but because this beautiful mathematical game still thrills me and because my ROI stays positive.  Good days, bad days for sure (namely any Thorofan Handicappers Corner post) but relaxing and stimulating nonetheless.

I'm going to add some new features to my blog next year.  I may even add more topics of interest to me: a late 40's gentlemen's fashion choices, hardware selections, watches, everyday carry, electronics, whatever may interest other socially disinterested, work-a-holic bald fellas who like horses and fine craftsmanship.

Anyways, let's get after this!






Lots of options in this one.  I'm going with Vyjack on top, but what I'm really saying is even if Baffert is shipping in Secret Circle, I'm betting against these Breeders' Cup contestants.

Vyjack is 3 of 4 at the Big A, and his Wood Memorial Show was against some solid class.   Won G2 Kelso last time out.




Rodriguez/Ortiz 31% at Aqueduct on 113 tries.

Itsmyluckyday, a  4 YO Lawyer Ron, one of my favorite horses ever (Rest in Peace), has been training regular and steady since a Show in the Kelso which followed a win in the Woodward.  First Big A effort.  2 of 4 at this distance, 8 of 16 on fast dirt, 13 of 16 in the money on fast dirt, 4 of 7 in 2014, 6 of 7 in the money in 2014.  Trainer Plesa 16% off the break.  Plesa/Lopez are 26% together in 333 tries over past year.  Lots to like and will be within 2 lengths the whole way.

Private Zone was 33-1 last year when he almost shocked the race.  He is boom or bust here but I think he'll run well to hit the Show or Exotic spot.  I guess I'm being a hypocrite as I have him higher than some BC runners I'm penalizing.

Bourbon Courage and Secret Circle I guess have a reason to call me a hypocrite.  Secret Circle, 5 YO already, has won two Breeders' Cup Sprints and Placed a third.  Not too shabby.  5 straight efforts at 6f but he seems to want to stretch out.  Interesting that Baffert brings him in for this with options at Del Mar.  Bourbon Courage has 1 win in last 12 races  but is 8 of 12 in the money as well. No wins in 3 starts at the distance, rang off a :46 4/5ths at 4f bullet last time on track.

Regally Ready (Can he really be 7?  I find myself exclaiming that alot this week!) is a really versatile horse. 6 wins in 9 2014 starts.  Only 3 of 37 career starts on dirt.  He may be in a great spot on the track to come hard and free at the end.  Beware!

I'm tossing three: Big Business, the other Eddington son along with Secret Circle, who I respect but you can't cover all in my world, Transparent and Noble Moon.

As the race is two hours to post, I'm going to publish these thoughts and keep thinking about bet strategy.  The track should be good and the weather OK albeit cold.

I'm thinking something along the lines of this:

$1 Super:  2-4 OVER 1-2-4-6-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8-9 OVER 1-6-7-8-9 for $168.  It's too rich and I have to make some harder choices but its a starting point

Good Luck

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Pimlico Special Grade 3

Welcome friends to The Thorofan's Handicapper's Corner, I am The Turk, and along with my 14 year old son, The Little Turk, we handicap and blog as many stakes races as we can, offering our handicaps at their fair market value, and our betting advice for what it's worth as well.

The Little Turk has been to many a Grade 1 race in his young life, and the picture to the left was taken by him last year when we arrived on Black Eyed Susan day at Pimlico.  It was a cold and fairly miserable day last year and this year doesn't seem much better.  The weather will be atrocious tomorrow, and while it may stop raining by race time, the track should be listed as wet.

This should be a more prestigious race than it is. A distance increase and more purse money this year doesn't hurt, and the field, if not cream of the crop, is at least fairly well level.  The wet track should be a bit of an equalizer and the wild card.

My initial thoughts of the past performances:

• 5 horses with 400 plus Wet Tomlinson Numbers
• Zero wins at the distance (with Exception of Korean Major King)
• Zero Pimlico wins and only one start (Major King again)
• 9 horse field, one toss (Major King), 5 legitimate winners (2,3,5,6,8)
• betting options galore: 10 cent super, super hi five, Preakness/Pimlico Special Double and Pimlico Special/Dixie/Preakness Pick 3

Let's start off looking at some last race video with the key players.

Oaklawn Handicap Grade 2 Fast Dirt 1 1/8 Miles (Carve, Revolutionary, Prayers for Relief, Golden Lad)



Charlestown Classic Grade 2 Fast Dirt 1 1/8 Miles (Moreno)




Without a Will Take Charge or a Game On Dude, there are some good efforts on display in those videos.



I'm not sure what type of betting option I'm going to choose for this race. I haven't watched any Pimlico races this week, so I'll want to watch closely and see how the track is playing wet and note any particular lane biases, if any.

I like Revolutionary to have a better than 2-1 chance to win;  Pletcher's trainee ran hard at Will Take Charge after being cut off in traffic in the stretch last time out.  Training consistently and should handle the track and the distance just fine.  The class of the race.

In my base handicap he's much lower, but I'm leaning towards some value in the Place spot and I'm thinking Bourbon Courage from the outside will come late.  Hasn't won since 2012 but 10 Place and Shows in 17 starts for the 5 YO Lion Heart horse.  It's a reach but I like the value.  You could easily insert Prayers for Relief into this slot too if you are value hunting and are OK with risk for reward.

In my mind there is a blanket over Moreno, Cat Burglar and Carve.  I don't see much to differentiate them from each other.  Cat Burglar is the least accomplished here, coming in off of Optional Claimers 62K and 40K affairs.  Baffert is shipping him in for a reason and he places Napravnik up.  Baffert and Rosie win 53% of the time together over a 15 race sample size.  Moreno is almost always in it and has had some very good efforts over the past year. He'll be top 5 without question and I think top three.  Carve is a 4 YO gelded son of First Samurai, trained by Brian Cox who places Castanon up, with the two of them 41% winners together over 29 races.

I'm leaning towards Golden Lad and Valid dropping like stones after setting the pace and I'm shading against Prayers for Relief too but for no particular reason except you can't cover them all.

I'm not sure I feel that strongly about my handicap to bet serious money.  Something simple like a five horse superfecta box with the 6-9-3-2-5, ten cent variety, will cost you $12.  I  may be more daring tomorrow after I see how the track plays and what the scratches and changes are.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis Hoosier Park Late Pick 4

Neck 'n Neck:  Photo by Hearald Bulletin

The Turk spoke at length yesterday about choosing your betting targets carefully, and I must say I am quite pleased with my results from Hoosier Park's late Pick 4, which included the Indiana Oaks and the Indiana Derby.

My first piece of good advice was the consistency of the handicapping that was allowed by having a Pick 4 that consisted of all dirt races with all at two turns, and good weather.  In about 2 hours work (4 hours total when I add in the work pleasure of blogging) I was able to return over $1,100 by just applying my base handicaps over what is essentially lazy betting for me, simple boxes.  I made a key decision that made it possible, a decision I acknowledged pre race, the decision to single Grace Hall in the Indiana Oaks, and then fate helped as well (the scratch of Juanita gave me the cash to go as deep as Salty Strike in the Mari Hilman George).  Fate doesn't just go in the Turk's favor though, the neck that Fourty Nine Watts beat Shadowbdancing by in the Schaefer Mile cost me the Superfecta and an additional $4,200.  Spilled milk, never focus on the losses, there are no moral victories, only cash in or out of the wallet, and my wallet is phat right now.



I followed my basics, which to my five readers, I have articulated ad nausea over the years.  I focused yesterday on current form, current work, in the money records on the surface and the distance, and Hoosier Park work got a premium.  I successfully put Hurricane Ike high up my rankings while the bettors only had him 8th in the field based on his last good race, last year's solid work on this Indiana Derby day. I wasn't floored by Bob Baffert's deep stable that shipped here.  Good horses, but ask yourself why here?  They aren't prepping for Breeders' Cup work, he was trying to win something for demanding owners while he can in this season.  He's good at this, but none of his runners were locks, yet the name Baffert draws action.

About the only disappointment for me was all the scratches in the Indiana Oaks (4 horses); It really made the race not bettable, especially with one entry coupled. The second disappointment was the performance of Stealcase and Eastergift in the Indiana Derby.  I could have survived one of them failing and won the superfecta, but I couldn't overcome both have really poor efforts. 

Good stuff friends, it's racing like yesterday that really lowers my blood pressure and makes me remember why I love the game and this blog. 

Most of October's balance will be dedicated towards getting ready for my biggest betting weekend left in the calendar year, Breeders' Cup.  After going to the last two at Churchill Downs I've chosen to skip this years.  Why Turk?  Simple reason really, I can't  bet like I like to bet when I am at the event.  I get caught up in the social aspects of the races, I meet friends, I loiter.  At Turk Central I will melt down my ADW circuits with my complicated matrix superfecta bets and my goal is a $2,000 plus net earnings weekend minimum.  I never set expectations like that, it's a slippery slope, but I'm serious about these two days this year and I'm upping the pressure I put on myself to prepare.  Preparation is secondary to my profession, so I will fit it in and I have plenty of time. 

Have a good NFL betting day friends, Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Hoosier Park All Stakes Pick 4

Bourbon Courage: Lynn Roberts, Hodges Photography

In my last blog post, a post celebrating the fourth anniversary of "The Turk and The Little Turk" blog, I spoke of a lack of passion I've had this year.  The horses haven't been doing it for me as a fan, and while I'm a good gambler, I'm really a fan, and fans need passion and excitement to keep them engaged.  I'm not a fickle Turk though, this isn't about me shifting allegiances to tennis, WWF Wrestling, synchronized swimming or something eccentric, this is simply an admission that the current crop of handicap division horses makes me yawn more than scream, and the 3 year olds  have been an utter train wreck of injuries and heartbreak. Luckily there are some segments of racing that still get my heart beating, and as in life, its the ladies that hold my interest when all else fails.  I've really enjoyed the fillies and mares this year and sprint racing instead of what has been passing for quality classic distance racing. 

In year five of my blog I'm going to talk about more than just handicapping.  I'd love to tell you what subjects I plan to cover, but that's far more restrictive than I want to be.  I lead a fairly regimented and structured life, and with my blog I'm just going to let my (figurative) hair down and talk about ye' ol Turk and the world around me. 

We are in Breeders' Cup season now, with most of the heavy hitters either already running their final prep races or doing that in the next two race weekends.  The Santa Anita, Keeneland or Belmont tracks are where I am spending my time watching but when I looked for a handicapping opportunity this weekend, my eyes gravitated to Hoosier Park and the late pick 4.  I was turned off (as a bettor)my the field sizes in Santa Anita in the key races I cared about like the five horse Arroyo Seco Mile.  As a race fan I think its important to watch the 5 YO Japanese Trailblazer and the former Santa Anita Derby winner, Midnight Interlude. 

Big fields and nice pots of money for trainers to hunt for, isn't that what's its about?  It's a shame that racinos pull away product from the treasures of our race tradition, but those states get it and backward places like Illinois and California and New York don't. Anyway, I'm going to avoid religion and politics here at The Turk, but just about everything else goes. 

When I look for places to invest my racing capital I try to eliminate variables and tilt the odds a bit in my favor.  When I look at this sequence a few things popped: All dirt, all two turns, weather doesn't appear to be an issue. 




Race 9 is the Michael Schaefer Memorial Mile $100K, 2 turn 1 mile race.  By the way, Mr. Schaefer was a US Navy veteran likes yours truly and a war vet, just like yours truly.  Like is the case in big racino racing days, you get a pretty big differential in talent that competes, but you also learn the big name ship in horses don't always win, so don't feel like you have to play the chalk or nothing.  I think its a three horse race for win honors though.

Shadowbdancing is 4 of 5 in the money in 2012, 4 of 7 in the money in 2011, 26 of 32 in the money on dirt and 4 of 5 in the money at the distance and the races lone millionaire. The 7 YO is consistent but never a lock. Ultra competitive, expect an in the money finish.

I'm looking for value and Hurrican Ike represents that; tacked up today by new trainer Michael Stidham, he hasn't run as well as he has since this race a year ago. First time on dirt since a hideous Texas Mile effort in April. 3 of 3 in the money at HOO with 2 wins, winless in 2012.

Good Lord switches turf to dirt, and returns to a surface where he freaked out two back to back triple digits Beyers and sprint distance.

Baffert must be respected, clicking off wins at a 31% clip right now, and he brings Bejarano in to ride Hoorayforhollywood; Most likely the big chalk, its prudent to cover in P4 but I'll take a stand a bit in the superfecta shading him down and not singling.  The 4 YO Storm Cat has the look of the real deal but was a bust in the Grade 1  Malibu and seems to be stuck in an Optional Claimer class. 

Race 10 is the Mari Hulman George $100K. Classy of the DRF to spell Ms. George's name wrong in the Past Performances, a truly special woman and friend to all animals. 

Baffert's Ellafitz will command mondo respect and cash but I'm looking for value and Michael Maker's Juanita, if she goes here (entered KEE R8 7 Oct 12) will be my dark bay or brown hope.  1 win in 1 try at HOO, 4 of 6 in the money at the distance and 10 of 12 in the money on dirt, with 5 wins. 

Absinthe Minded goes for D. Wayne Lukas who I've been a bit critical of, and I should shut the F**K up about him, as he is a legend and he's doing what he loves and I should just view him as I would any 9% trainer and not expect him to be at the top anymore.  I am happy for him to see him get of the mat with his graded stakes win percentage.  This 5 YO ran 5f in 1:00 4/5ths recently and when she's on, she's on, like her Grade 1 Apple Blossom Place to Plum Pretty earlier this year.

I'll take my chances against Salty Strike and Brushed by a Star is capable.

In the Indiana Oaks the lovely Grace Hall goes for Tony Dutrow with Ramon Dominguez up. A dud in the Alabama as a well beaten chalk to Questing et al, a pretty consistent runner, 8 of 9 in the money lifetime and the race's lone millionaire by a bunch.  May single, but we'll cross that bridge later.

Amie's Dini has been training well and will be a big price if you like that sort of stuff, well like just about every player,  Seems to be getting better.  Hmmm.

The coupled Uptown Bernie and Wine Princess will be competitive but I like Bridgemohan's mount Wine Princess a bit more.  Both need to show more speed if they have it. 

I've been an Eden Moon fan all year, you have to go back to 3 March at SA to find a good effort on dirt, and the ship for the Kentucky Oaks wasn't worth the travel expense.

When I rattle on about what I don't like about racing, its the lack of fields and field strength.  I don't care if this field for the Indiana Derby is world class, but its full and vibrant and there is enough class to make this fun.  I was so enamored as I write this I really don't know who I'm backing.  I'll start with Bourbon Courage, the Grade 2 Super Derby winner last time out, with that on the heels of the place finish in the Grade 2  West Virgina Derby. Conventional wisdom is the horse will step back at some point, but we save conventional wisdom for the bullshit pile here at The Turk. I have him on top but I'm not sure if he has the class of others here. 

Easter Gift, a Hard Spun son, has been training well at the Saratoga training track since early August and in the middle of that, a nice win in the slop in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones for trainer Zito.

Fed Biz is a lightly raced Baffert that ran well on dirt at SA and won a stakes at Del Mar over that crappy fake dirt track that I try to ignore. Hard to judge really what he has here. 

I like Stealcase and Neck 'n Neck quite a bit; Stealcase's sire, Lawyer Ron, rest in peace, was a favored colt of mine and his loss still makes me a bit emotional, resonating like the deaths of Tuscan Evening and Lost in the Fog and George Washington still do with me.  Don't tell me you're a race fan if you can't tell me who your heart hangs heaviest for.  Alydar and Ferdinand gotta mean something to you too!

I think I digressed.  Stealcase is a good, not great horse, honest, with a trainer in Mark Casse who is comfortable taking shots.  I like that! The Haskell effort was solid, not embarrassed in the Travers, this isn't out of the question.  Neck 'n Neck  is a Flower Alley, cut from similar cloth. Training well, the Grade 3 winner came just short in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and also wasn't embarrassed in the Travers.

I'll be going vertical and horizontal and we'll see what kind of fun we can make today into.  I hope whatever track you play find races where you can tilt some of the variables your way.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!