Wire Players "Dirty" Derby Dozen and betting the Derby "Tiznow" Style

The Staff at Turk Central working on Oaks Handicap

Some of the brightest minds in horse racing come together every year to handicap the possible winners of the Kentucky Derby.   The Wire Players Derby Dozen might not be that collection of intellects because they let yours truly actually have a say.  They may revoke my privileges next year as my top pick is Overanalyze and he is somewhere outside of the esteemed group's top 12. No matter, I'll never be accused of esteem, or intelligence!

Do I love Overanalyze?  Not at all, but I'm also not sold on any of the horses that will go off at less than 6-1.  So what's a horse player to do?  Have fun.  Keep your bets within reason.  Take chances.  Raise your hand if you had the 38-1 Oaks winner?  I know people who did, and those folks are shrewd value bettors.  Me, not so much.  I don't pay attention to the morning line, but I do look at the tote board and that filly just didn't seem to have any support and I didn't see anything on paper that made me think Princess of Sylmar had anything:  lost ground in Gazelle but did get Place, workouts at Churchill so-so, 4 wins in 6 starts, 5 of 6 in the money.  A sleeper I would not have anticipated.  Know thyself.  Which leads us back to Overanalyze, but more importantly, forget what the talking heads and "experts" are telling you:  There are 10 horses that could win this race and the other 9 shouldn't but could.




I suggest a betting method authored by "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds.



If you need a good way to spend your winnings, please consider a donation to the Tim Reynolds Memorial Fund. Tim was the Horse Racing Fan of the Year and passed away at way too young an age.

Derby Dozen Poll Results and Current Derby Point Leaders

I love horse racing; I love the mental challenge of handicapping, I love the thrill of the wager. I love the highs, and the lows, while humbling, keep me grounded. I like to believe handicapping skills, acquired over many years of enduring the highs and lows, take the proposition of winning to slightly better than a thrown dart. There are days when I can't lose and then there are weeks where I can't win. Sometimes its best to stand back and listen to others give their views on the runners. Longtime readers of The Turk know I eschew outside bias, but this is different. I find it really instructive to listen to others when it comes to Derby Contenders and the group I find myself a member of, offers great insight with cutting commentary.

The Wire Players Derby Dozen have voted on this year's Derby Contenders for the second time and the list is interesting: Ive Struck a Nerve, while the point leader after the first weekend of the Championship Series, doesn't crack the top 12. While not a surprise off of his incredible long shot victory in the Risen Star, points are points and as each week goes by, it will be harder to back chic, lightly raced runners. For the record, The Turk has Super Ninety Nine on top right now.









The Gotham is up today. Have fun friends, Turk Out!

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Volume 1 PLUS The Derby Point Standings and Prep Race Results

We are back. I'm not sure what the popular demand is, but Steve and the team at Wire Players have reassembled a collection of experts from the horse racing world to provide insight into the three year old crop as the chase for a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby heats up. Why they want the Turk's involvement, folly possibly, but I'm glad to be a part of the crew again.

People who read the Turk know how I ignore two year old racing almost completely. That's not driven by some moral objection to these youngsters running, its just not my bag. I like to see 10 races on a past performance, I like to see the handicap division runners with 20 starts, I like the data that the older horses provides as a handicapper. As a race fan, I like to fall in love with horses and follow them. That generally doesn't start until the Kentucky Derby for 3 year olds because I just don't get that misty eyed about young runners until they do it a few times.

I've warmed up to the changes implemented this year regarding the point system and the rules regarding entry into the Derby. If you haven't followed it closely, you can get caught up on how the system works here.

It's early: the system is geared heavily towards what would be the second, third and fourth starts of the year for most of these three year olds. The nomination group for Triple Crown Races 369 horses, down from 450 in 2007. It's never about quantity, American Racing needs a quality injection, and with youth we have hope.

Anyway, things are about to heat up. I say that as a massive storm barrels up the Eastern seaboard and coats Turk Central in a thick coating of snow. May will come, May will come.

Turk Out!

The Wire Players Derby Dozen Poll Volume 2 and The Turk's Top 12

Only on the Internet does a hack like The Turk, an admittedly lousy young horse prognosticator, get to give his opinions on who the best three year olds in the county are.

Volume 2 of this year's Wire Player's Derby Dozen Poll is now out, and while I'm a part of this group, these people actually know what they are doing! Shockingly, seven of my selections have made the top 12 this week. I almost bust my gut at the lovely Jill Baffert's shout out at how we suck, but I do have Drill higher than my companions.

Friends, this is what horse racing is about, opinions, comments, and a shared love of these animals. If horses are only numbers on the Form in your mind, The Turk is the wrong blog for you. Things will be heating up this weekend with the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth primarily. The calendar is about to turn over to March. I could write a few more ranting paragraphs about the old days when three year olds ran every three weeks but I won't bother, the landscape has shifted. There may be this weekend and one more race before Kentucky for the biggest stars and you'll have to form an opinion off a limited resume. Who wants the distance, let that dictate your thoughts, who's going to want that distance.



And The Turk's opinions only...



Have fun with this friends. Turk out!

The Wire Players Dirty Dozen Volume IV; March 4, 2010

The latest edition of the WirePlayers Dirty Dozen Poll has been released. I'm actually enjoying the clouded and confusing Derby picture for a simple reason; the Turk likes drama and this collection of runners are drama. As one of the pollsters I've been applying my own personal bias to the poll each week and for the first time below the official Wire Players Poll I have included The Turk's own Top 12. I reward horses that run and prep, and I reward horses that win or place, that run fast 1/4 miles and that are starting to prep out to 1 1/8 miles and I do have a negative bias against horses prepping on poly with no dirt experience. Right, wrong, indifferent, I dunno. If Mine That Bird teaches us anything it's that the horses don't read the bloggers, don't care what is said on At The Races, and don't pay much attention to the "experts", they just run, and the horse who has the best current form on that day and who has the best trip, and handles the paddock craziness with aplomb is in a great spot to win.

The Official Wire Players Derby Dozen Volume IV



And finally, the Turk would be remiss without taking a minute to remember the great Flanders, 1994 Breeders' Cup Champion who passed away this week after a paddock accident. Rest in Peace and you will be remembered.

The Wire Players Dirty Dozen Poll

Steve at Wireplayers.com has collected a diverse and knowledgeable group of bloggers and twitter types to come together and vote every two weeks on this year's Kentucky Derby contenders. Somehow ye 'Ol Turk ended up with an invitation to join this group, go figure!

This is poll #1 for the group, and the ponies who will be nominated for the Triple Crown are just getting ready to show what they have, but it's a classy group that will be at worst winners of high priced allowance racing and at best the next crop of Grade 1 stakes champions, and health willing, one of them will emerge as our 12th Triple Crown winner. The ghost of Sir Barton shines on them.

Thanks Steve for your leadership in bringing folks together, not always an easy task in the blogosphere. Let's get it on!



Again, its early, but you get the idea. I can't imagine what an undertaking this was for Joe Hirsch in the days before the internet, and I'm not comparing this in anyway to his legendary work, but it is exciting to walk a bit in his shoes.

Have fun, Turk Out!