The Nomination Is In: September 25, 2010 Belmont Park Late Pick 4 including the Grade II Gallant Bloom

That's Rapport, the Grade III winning runner for Trainer Baffert with M. Garcia up and the Turk's chalk in the Grade II Gallant Bloom at Belmont Park today. The Turk went to the tape and had to watch the Grade III Azalea before I could get comfortable picking Rapport. With R. Albarado up, Rapport shot out of the gate for a quarter mile in :21 1/5 and a half mile in :44 3/5 before shortening her stride in the stretch and getting gutty to hold on for fourth. Garcia goes back up, winning his last three rides with her, and she takes on the regal and much classier Sara Louise, last seen on a race track in November 2009.

These late September races are setting the stage for horses thinking Breeders' Cup and you get a mixture of horses coming off breaks or horses in a second of three race cycle looking to be peaked in early November. This Late Pick Four ain't no walk through the garden either. No real singles jump off the page and if I went purely off my base handicap I'd spend a whole lot and most likely lose or return less than my investment. That's not a good place to be so we will have to take some chances, gamble, and see if we can't make the investment and possible reward come back into the proper perspective. Let's get after it!

Belmont Park Late Pick 4; Post Time for Race 6 is 3:39 ET



In Race 6, I'm backing Stevil, a 30 start 5 YO gelding who's been in the money 19 times. He's most likely the bettor's chalk here although Lemon Spice, a Chad Brown runner with Borel up, will get play. Lemon Spice is 6 of 10 in the money on turf with a 92 BSF on fast Gulfstream Turf and is 4 of 5 in the money at the distance. For value, Glacier Bay is a nice 4 YO son of Distorted Humor and carries a race high 123 pounds. 4 of 6 in the money in 2010.

Race 7 is a claimer with a $25K purse again run a 1 1/16 miles on what should be firm turf. Shimmering Forest returns to this class after Placing at Saratoga on Woodward day. 4 of 5 in the money on turf. Hasten to be King is a stretch but comes in off a first race maiden breaker who was bred by Bobby Frankel and is now trained by Contessa. A nice turn of foot at 6f for Gomez, M. Luzzi is up today for the first time turf try. Don Balcazio is the best of the rest and I respect Trainer Clement with Maragh up, winners of 23% together at BEL.

Race 8 is an Allowance N1X with a $54,000 purse. Pretty Boy Freud is my tepid chalk; 10 of 13 in the money lifetime, a win would double Trainer O'Brien's 2010 total in 57 tries. I'm warming up on Devon Rock, starting sixth race, 3 of 4 in the money on Turf and a winner on Belmont turf in June. Will press the pace but his last few run lines paint a picture, "...faded...weakened...lugged in..." Optimism is a string suit of mine. Missinglisalewis is more polished with 6 of 8 in the money at the distance, 11 of 17 in the money on turf and 6 of 10 in the money on the turf at Belmont for Trainer Domino. Harmonizer, with Leparoux up, tries turf for the first time, something Trainer Maker does Ok with at 16% of his tries and a dirt to turf switcher at 18%. He's got dirt speed but he'll need to stay further today as well.

And in the Gallant Bloom Rapport gets my nod after a 103 BSF and win at Saratoga on Travers Day in the Grade III Victory Ride. Sara Louise won the Victory Ride last year only to run Place to Indian Blessing in the Gallant Bloom. The Godolphin Team bounces back from +180 layoffs 31% of the time and the horse has plenty of class and quality to not be phased by the inactivity. I'm not buying if 2-1 or 3-2 but I'm covering in Pick 4. Qualia is a nice horse for one of The Turk's favorites, Trainer Ribaudo, and the bettors might be comforted by My Jen and Pretty Prolific, capable teases.

As bettor's, this is a card that we ask for: Nine horse fields, quality competition, few heavy chalks, good stuff indeed. If you want easy, well, go somewhere else. I love Big Sandy in the fall, and with dirt being the surface of choice at the Breeders' Cup again this year I believe we'll see the best fall racing here instead of Oak Tree Hollywood.

Build your own handicap and have fun with it. Watch the weather which should be great, the scratches and changes, and keep that tote board in your mind. Value, value, value, but most importantly, fun, fun, fun. Never bet more then you can afford to lose from your household's budget.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Friday Filly and Mare Sprint G1

Four years old, beautiful, sleek and exotic, Informed Decision pictured to the left is The Turk's chalk in today's Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She'll be facing eight others and breaking from the 7 spot with a very talented Street Cry filly Seventh Street and the male beating Mare, Ventura on the far outside.

Race 7 at Santa Anita Post Time 6:02 ET; The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Grade I; 7 Furlongs on fake dirt for F&M 3 YO and Up.

Informed Decision comes in at the end of a very impressive 4 YO campaign, 6 of 6 in the money with a career 6 wins in 6 starts on fake dirt and 10 wins in 13 career trips to the gate. Trainer Sheppard wins 26% of his fake dirt races and an impressive 28% of his graded stake starts, and combined with Leparoux who is up today, they win together 33% of the time. A sharp 5f in :59 and 3/5ths followed a Grade II win at 6f on Keeneland's fake stuff. Hasn't consistently put up three digit BSF's but capable and competitive.

Seventh Street takes a significant drop in furlongs in hopes that her speed will carry through 7/8's of a mile. An interesting runner, 6 of 6 in the money on wet dirt and the horse only has 9 starts, with no sythetic and no turf starts, but a lifetime 9 of 9 in the money and a ton of class. Works slow and last race in September. More bets will hedge down to 4th or lower then hedge this high.

Ventura, heroine of the Woodbine Mile, comes in with everything but a good post position. She is very capable of overcoming that, but its a hurdle and I'll have her in my top four, but where she'll land on the ticket I dunno. 6 wins in last 11 starts, 11 of last 11 in the money, 9 wins in 19 starts on turf and fake dirt, 17 of 19 in the money on combined turf and fake dirt starts, very impressive numbers including a race best 108 BSF, with three 100+ BSF in a row and a Grade I win at SA and a loss by a nose in a GI at SA to a little old horse called Gio Ponti. Best horse in the race from Chester House.

The next rung down could be a blanket finish and a toss up all at the same time. I'd hedging towards Evita Argentina, the 3 YO Candy Ride that has 5 wins on Poly including a Grade II at SA. n Training sharply for Sadler who wins 20% of his fake dirt races and 24% of his 61-180 day layoff starts.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not going too much higher then 3rd of 4th on some tickets with Sara Louise. No fake dirt or turf starts for the 3 YO but two 100+ BSF at Belmont and Saratoga. Training well and Godolphin puts the incorrigible F. Dettori up.

Have Fun, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis: November 1, 2008

Not a bad day of identifying the winners in four races that I handicapped. Unfortunately, no real good underlays popped out of the PP's and onto the track.

Race 3 at HOL, I picked Pamona Ball to win and she did. The bettors agreed and sent her off at 1.90. I liked Pamona Ball and Magic Roberta in an exacta (Trifector wasn't offered), and I thought Toro Bonito would take show. It was Pamona Ball and Toro Bonito at the wire. I didn't like the Tote Board and I placed no money, made easier by the stupid internet waging silliness.

At WO in race 6, I said I liked Retractable to beat the heavy chalk, High Mist. Retractable was the bettors second choice at 2.10, and won the race 3 1/4 lengths in front of second place. The Turk took a 2 dollar flyer on Sanguine, a first time Lasik horse racing for the first time. She led for awhile and faded to finish last.

The 9th race at CD, the G3 Pocahontas Stakes, I liked Rachel Alexandra and Sara Louise. Sara Louise took the wire 3 3/4 lengths in front of Rachel Alexandra. The top four horses in the race were picked by me, but the bottom three were really outclassed anyway. No bets placed.

The 10th race at CD I was out to lunch on. It's one of those moments we all have. Pre Race, I typed Capt. Candyman Can as my favorite, only to delete it after second guessing my selection. I made my selections without seeing the Morning Line, and I was surprised to see that Capt. Candyman Can did go off as the bettors favorite. I picked Monty's Best, who finished second. No bets placed.

That drops the Turk to ($6.75) after Week 1 (Breeder's Cup to Breeder's Cup) . I'm tracking all my expenses (PP's, race charts, Blood Horse, Track Admission, etc) just for kicks. As a friend recently told the Turk, "There's nowhere to hide when you blog". Ain't that the truth!